00:00Elijah J. Mania, the veteran war correspondent and political risk analyst.
00:05Elijah, welcome back. Good to see you.
00:07Well, if is a big word.
00:09How significant is this move by the United States to potentially sell F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia?
00:19Indeed, it is, if and potentially, because first of all, it was approved by the State Department
00:26and it needs to go to the Congress.
00:28If approved, Saudi Arabia will not have the same aircraft equivalent to the Israeli F-35 a year,
00:37even if they derive from the same family, the F-35A.
00:41But because the production program already has a substantial international order book,
00:48so the first Saudi aircraft are unlikely to be delivered before 2030,
00:55which means it has nothing to do with the war in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
01:02or the attack of Ansarullah in Yemen against Saudi Arabia.
01:07However, why now? That's the most important.
01:11Because Riyadh submitted the request in early 2025 and Donald Trump supported the proposal.
01:20So the decision is therefore formal now and it is in progress.
01:25Secondly, the revised Saudi-Ansarullah confrontation attack on the Saudi infrastructure disturbing the Red Sea
01:34and, on the other hand, the Strait of Hormuz jeopardizing the energy route that has given Washington
01:41a convenient immediate justification to push this deal to the Congress.
01:47The third, the Washington wants to keep Riyadh inside the American defense architecture.
01:53Therefore, the Saudi Arabia cannot go to China and increase their relationship on the military aspect
02:00or joint exercises to give China access to the weapons.
02:04Therefore, selling the F-35 binds Saudi Arabia to the United States for decades through softwares, spare parts, weapons, training,
02:16maintenance,
02:17and it also allowed Washington to impose security arrangements to prevent the Chinese access to the F-35 technology.
02:26The fourth point is to say strengthen the anti-Iran regional military structure.
02:32It's not very successful, but it gives an idea that actually the Americans are not leaving the area.
02:38Fifth, it is commercially valuable.
02:42So the package benefit Lockheed Martin, Pratt, and Whitney, and a broad American supply chain.
02:50Briefly, if Saudi Arabia has them eventually, what might it do to the balance of power in the region?
02:59Well, it depends.
03:01If they want to use them, they are very vulnerable because their main enemies now are Ansarullah in Yemen and
03:09Iran.
03:10Iran proved that only with drone, it can completely neutralize all the pumping stations that Saudi Arabia has
03:20from the east to the west to escape the Strait of Hormuz.
03:25So it's not really much, particularly when all the features that this plane will have will not be superior to
03:33the Israelis
03:34and will not make a big difference because Saudi Arabia doesn't have a strong power in the Middle East
03:42and Iran is really taking it now.
03:45Elijah, good to see you. Thank you for that.
03:47Elijah J. Manier, the veteran war correspondent and political risk analyst.
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