00:00I'm gonna have to be a bit mean in this video because I'm gonna have to bring back a terrible
00:04memory that's stuck in your head, Norway, to Brazil 1.
00:08The faithful game where Haaland ended the dream of the sixth title and Brazil finished the match with less possession
00:14than the Norwegians.
00:15But I'm doing this for a good reason.
00:17Portugal just beat Norway by exactly 2-1.
00:21And the numbers from this game really stand out.
00:24You know me. I'm the guy who does tactical analysis and likes to explain the reasons.
00:28Why did one team win? Why did the other team lose?
00:31But I'm not gonna lie to you.
00:32The reason the Portuguese won isn't complicated at all and it's much simpler than it seems.
00:37In this video, I'm going to show you the approach Jorge Jesus used to beat Norway in the Nations League.
00:42But before that, to make sure you'll understand, I need to show you some data.
00:46Come with me.
00:47A crucial starting point that we need to have to understand how Portugal managed to beat Norway
00:52is to really understand how Norway attacks and creates their plays.
00:57Because that's going to be decisive for how this game played out.
00:59Basically, the team was set up more or less like this, okay?
01:02It's a 4-3-3, but kind of with three defensive midfielders in quotes.
01:06Because Odegaard isn't really a defensive midfielder, but in the national team,
01:09he basically acts like one Haaland, Schelder, Schelderup.
01:13And here's the new thing.
01:14Compared to the team that faced Brazil, it was Sorlotti on the right, Nusa here on the left.
01:19And the team works more or less like this.
01:21I always like to say that for us to understand how a team plays,
01:24we need to understand what the main focus is, where this team wants to get to.
01:28And with Norway, it's very easy to say, right?
01:31Haaland is the focal point of this team.
01:33And they're going to try to use Haaland and exploit Haaland in every possible way.
01:36One of those ways is through long balls.
01:38Nijland, for example, used long balls a lot to look for Haaland in behind.
01:44And if he didn't win that first ball, he could put the ball up for grabs,
01:48either for Schelderup or for Nusa.
01:52So get closer and win that second ball, especially because the wingers will cut inside.
01:57Another mechanism has a lot to do with Portugal's defensive matchups,
02:00and this one is a bit more complicated, so I need you to pay attention here.
02:04Let's go.
02:05They used Ausner as the fullback who pushed forward, but not too much.
02:09And Rierson on the other side with the same role.
02:12And the build-up play basically worked like this, okay?
02:15We would usually see Gonçalo Ramos on one of the centerbacks.
02:19João Félix was matched up with Berg.
02:22The other Berg was a bit more advanced.
02:24And Palin was the one taking care of him really close to the other one here.
02:28And Odegaard was basically being marked by João Neves.
02:32But some variations happened when Portugal wanted to press a little higher.
02:36Gonçalo Ramos would usually go to the other centerback,
02:39or he would stay here, so to speak.
02:41João Félix would go, João Neves would cover,
02:45and Pedro Neto would come inside to cover.
02:48So if that happened, mainly because no one wanted to leave Odegaard free in this match,
02:52especially after the damage he caused to Brazil,
02:54Ausners would end up free on the wing,
02:56since Nuno Mendes and João Cancelo were taking care of the Norwegian wingers.
03:00And it's important to mention, when Norway didn't go for the long ball,
03:04they would usually try to use the fullbacks.
03:06In the first half, it was more Ausners,
03:08and in the second half, it was more Rierson,
03:11because they switched things up a bit.
03:13Odegaard switches sides, and this whole dynamic kind of changes,
03:16and the one who starts keeping an eye on him here is Conceição,
03:18and Jürsen ends up being Rierson.
03:21But to simplify, let's stick with the setup from the first half, right?
03:24Odegaard over here, and Pedro Neto following him during those moments of higher pressure.
03:28Ausners would carry the ball.
03:30Pass it to Scheldrup.
03:32Nuno Mendes would get caught off guard.
03:34The ball would go to him again.
03:35Ball to the byline.
03:37And then it was time to cross the ball into the box, to look for Haaland.
03:40And as a Brazilian, you know the damage he's capable of causing.
03:43The problem is that when I say Jorge Jesus' solution wasn't that complex,
03:48you'll understand when we look at the numbers from the game.
03:51Jorge, these are the stats from Brazil and Norway.
03:54Our loss in the World Cup round of 16.
03:56The shots.
03:57And what really stands out is this, right?
04:00Possession.
04:0066% for Norway and 34% for Brazil.
04:03This made headlines in Brazil.
04:05And a lot of people even started calling for Ancelotti to be fired because of it.
04:09But those who are already subscribed to our channel know our opinion about this.
04:12To win a game, you don't have to be locked into the idea that you have to have possession.
04:18Of course, what's interesting is having a variety of strategies.
04:21A range of possibilities to bother your opponent.
04:23But you can definitely win a match against Norway with less possession,
04:27as long as that's part of your plan.
04:29And look, what an interesting coincidence.
04:32These are the numbers for Norway and Portugal.
04:34And Norway finished the game with 62% possession.
04:38And Portugal with 38%.
04:40Just to remind you, Portugal with 38%.
04:43Brazil with 34%.
04:44Very close numbers.
04:46And the same goes for expected goals.
04:48Okay?
04:48One little match.
04:49Here's something interesting.
04:50Brazil and Norway.
04:51Brazil finished the game with 2.61.
04:54Expected goals.
04:55And here you'll easily remember, right?
04:57Neymar's penalty.
04:58The missed chance by Henrik.
05:00And also the missed penalty by Bruno Guimarães.
05:032.61 against only 1.05.
05:06When we look at the other game, the team with more expected goals was Norway.
05:11Even though Portugal won 2.52 expected goals for Norway and 1.04 for Portugal.
05:18It's like the roles were a little bit reversed, right?
05:20Portugal had the same possession as Brazil, but the team that created more chances was Norway.
05:25And that basically explains how this game played out.
05:28Portugal really stuck to the idea of pressing a little higher than Brazil did.
05:33And as you saw, that even ended up generating more expected goals for Norway.
05:37In other words, Ancelotti's strategy of holding the lines back a little more actually made a lot of sense.
05:43Norway lost the possibility of playing long balls since Brazil was more compact.
05:47And the fullbacks hardly ever had space.
05:50In fact, when they did, that's when Haaland opened the scoring, if you remember that game well.
05:54On the other hand, the numbers are going to shake up the story of this game once again.
05:59Take a look at this.
06:00Portugal opens the scoring with a shot from outside the box by João Félix at around the 16th or 17th
06:05minute
06:05with a 5% chance of scoring, which with the quality of the strike increased to 60%.
06:12More chance of being a goal than not being a goal.
06:15Do you know what happened around the 15th minute of the first half?
06:18That was exactly the moment when Bruno Guimarães missed Brazil's penalty.
06:23Let's even pull up this shot from Bruno here.
06:26And Bruno Guimarães takes the penalty in the 14th minute.
06:29Three minutes before João Félix's 79% chance of a goal.
06:34He brings it down to 63% still with a better chance than João Félix's shot,
06:38but he ends up missing.
06:40And that completely changes how the game played out.
06:43Even though Jorge Jesus didn't have a brilliant strategy,
06:46we can say that history is unfortunately written by the winners.
06:50If you win a match, your strategy is flawless,
06:53and Jorge Jesus went to the press conference to say that he and Zidane
06:56were the only debut coaches to win at the start of this cycle.
06:59On the other hand, you can have a very well-structured strategy like Brazil did.
07:04You give Norway few chances, or at least few clear chances,
07:08and then you don't count on a bad day and Haaland ends up scoring two goals.
07:12And Haaland's numbers in these games are also quite interesting.
07:15Actually, pretty much the opposite, we could say.
07:16Take a look at this.
07:17Haaland was really inspired against the national team.
07:20He took four shots, 0.47 expected goals, I mean XG,
07:24and he improved the quality of that, raising it to 1.14.
07:29In other words, even with 1.14, he ended up scoring two goals,
07:33it was a really inspired day for Haaland, with some unlikely finishes.
07:36We could even say that this one from outside the box here was much more unlikely,
07:40and it ended up resulting in two goals that knocked Brazil out.
07:43Now take a look at what he did against Portugal.
07:45There were eight shots, more than there were against Brazil.
07:471.7 expected goals, more than there were against Brazil.
07:52And 2.88 expected goals on target, more than there were against Brazil.
07:56In this game, on the other hand, he wasn't as inspired.
08:00He scored his 51st goal on a rebound from a free kick,
08:03and missed other clear chances inside the six-yard box.
08:06This one here had a 35% chance of scoring,
08:09this other one had 46%,
08:11and this one here had 19%,
08:13but he ended up finishing poorly.
08:15Another one where he finishes with a 64% chance in the 13th minute,
08:18and this other one with 2% plus,
08:21a shot from far away with a 3% chance of scoring.
08:23In other words, history is written by the winners.
08:26With reasonably similar strategies,
08:29maybe with a bit more pressure from Portugal,
08:31and maybe the luck of Joao Felix's unlikely shot going in at 17 minutes,
08:35that completely changed the game.
08:37Portugal was able to play much more comfortably,
08:40drop deeper,
08:41and look a bit more to attack in transition,
08:43and Portugal's second goal is almost a joke.
08:46If we remember well, Niland,
08:48Norway's goalkeeper was in inspired form in this match.
08:50It's no wonder he got a 7.9 rating here on 365 scores.
08:54There were four saves plus a save penalty,
08:56which resulted in 0.76 expected goals prevented.
09:00Against Portugal, it was a less inspired night.
09:034.9 rating and 0.92.
09:060.92 fewer goals prevented.
09:09In other words,
09:10he conceded 0.92 goals.
09:120.92 goals more than what was expected of him.
09:15And if we look at the second goal,
09:17it's a joke.
09:17He tries to play out from the back
09:19and gives the ball right to Gonzalo Ramos,
09:21who, with maybe an even less clear chance than Hendricks,
09:24ends up chipping the goalkeeper and scoring.
09:26What do I want you to take away from this video?
09:28Soccer is an extremely complex game,
09:30and we can't judge a strategy as good or bad
09:33based solely on the result.
09:36Brazil had less possession than Portugal,
09:38but conceded fewer expected goals.
09:40The problem is,
09:40they ran into Holland and Nieland on inspired form.
09:43Portugal, on the other hand,
09:44ended up scoring quite early.
09:46They had less possession,
09:48but gave up a lot of chances,
09:49and on a night when Holland wasn't inspired,
09:52they ended up seeing the Norwegian waste
09:54some good opportunities.
09:55Come with us.
09:56Don't fall for the simplistic talk
09:58that the result dictates how the game went.
09:59Of course, we're disappointed
10:01with the Brazilian national team.
10:02Maybe if Bruno Guimaraes,
10:04Alisson and Hendricks
10:06had been a little more inspired
10:07or had felt a little less pressure,
10:09and obviously it's very hard
10:10to compare the Nations League
10:11with the World Cup.
10:12Maybe Brazil would have come out
10:14as the winner of that game.
10:15We're disappointed,
10:16but we can't be unfair
10:17to the point of comparing
10:18Jorge Jesus' work.
10:19Who obviously will beat his chest
10:21and say it's the best job
10:22in world football?
10:23I have several criticisms of Ancelotti,
10:26several suggestions for improvement,
10:28but Jorge Jesus isn't that
10:29unbeatable coach either.
10:30And if you like this idea
10:31of looking at the game in more depth,
10:33I invite you to check out our app
10:35that has a fantasy game inside.
10:36The link is here in the description
10:37or pinned in the comments.
