This Is Why Corinthians Could Be Relegated!

Ultimate Football

Six straight defeats have Corinthians fans sweating—but is relegation inevitable? We break down the numbers behind their blunt attack, why Yuri Alberto’s absence hurts, Diniz’s tactical options, and whether the Timão can find enough points to stay up. Watch to hear our verdict on their chances of staying up! #Football #Soccer #Corinthians  Subscribe for more football breakdowns. Comment what you liked most from the video.  👉 This channel was created in collaboration with https://www.youtube.com/@futebolmaximo  0:00 - Corinthians' Offensive Crisis 1:39 - Yuri Alberto's Missing Runs 3:07 - Why Corinthians Struggles to Create Chances 6:52 - Tactical Adjustments Without Yuri 9:49 - Financial Crisis and Squad Limitations 11:02 - Relegation Run-In Projection  We're now available on Spotify! Listen now https://open.spotify.com/show/

Transcript

00:00Six straight defeats, a financial crisis and the threat of the relegation zone.

00:04Anyone would say these are the reasons for Corinthians to be relegated to the second division.

00:09But the real reason that makes Fernando Diniz's team a serious candidate for Serie B in 2027 is different and

00:15even more dangerous.

00:16I know all these numbers over here might scare you at first.

00:20But we need them to contextualize what Corinthians' biggest enemy is in this fight against relegation.

00:26So check this out, Corinthians is one of the three worst teams when it comes to big chances created.

00:30Throughout the championship, Corinthians has 44.

00:32They are tied with Gremio and also with Vitoria, which are the other two worst in this category.

00:37When it comes to shots, Corinthians is also a team that, on average, per minute edge has one of the

00:41worst rates.

00:42Only 12 tied with Gremio and Vitoria as well, who are also fighting to avoid relegation.

00:47They are 17th, 17th, 18th and 19th.

00:49The worst in this category is Coritiba, who doesn't appear here in this graphic.

00:52And that expected goals metric, which measures the probability of a chance ending in a goal based on the shots

00:58taken,

00:58also puts Corinthians among the bottom three in that index.

01:01They have only 28 expected goals in the 2026 Brasileiro.

01:04Once again, right there with Vitoria and Gremio, who are also two strong candidates for relegation.

01:09All these numbers illustrate what Corinthians' biggest problem is when we look at the pitch.

01:13A team's ability to create scoring chances.

01:16And with that, score gold.

01:18Corinthians also has one of the worst attacks in the 2026 Brazilian Championship with only 29 goals scored.

01:25That puts them ahead of only the competition's lowest scoring team.

01:28And as you know, if the team doesn't find the net, of course, it's not going to win games.

01:32So that is the main point that Fernando Diniz needs to address to seek a turnaround

01:36after the FIFA international break and save the team from the relegation battle.

01:40And if you're a Corinthians fan, you know the math isn't simple, right?

01:43Corinthians' next two games are away from home against Inter, a direct rival.

01:47And Palmeiras in a high-stakes derby that could make a huge difference.

01:51And then these direct matchups continue against Vasco, Vitoria, Mirasol.

01:55Anyway, this final stretch of the championship tends to be dramatic.

01:58And it all gets even worse when we look here.

02:00See, at Corinthians' top scorers over this stretch of the Brazilian League season,

02:03Matheus Bitu, left-back, André midfielder,

02:06and Rodrigo Garro, who's also a midfielder.

02:07André is more of a defensive midfielder, right?

02:10Each of them has three.

02:10And Yuri Alberto also has three.

02:12But three goals for a center forward is very low.

02:15And Corinthians' on-field slump with multiple consecutive defeats

02:18also coincides with the time that Yuri Alberto has been out injured.

02:23With Yuri Alberto on the pitch,

02:25this becomes one of Corinthians' strongest and most lethal plays.

02:28Back there, Breno Bidon played a pass to André.

02:30André pushed forward.

02:32And notice Yuri Alberto's gesture right here.

02:34He's already making a run getting in position to split the two center backs

02:37and make a diagonal run to receive a through ball.

02:40This play is Yuri Alberto's biggest strength.

02:43And it's one that when Corinthians has him on the pitch,

02:45Corinthians often uses to build attacking moves.

02:47And as a result of that, goals too.

02:49When he's not around, there's no one in the squad who can replicate this right here.

02:53So, look.

02:54André got the ball right there in space.

02:56Look at how Yuri made his run right between the two defenders.

02:58He took off.

02:59André's pass was spot on.

03:01Zivaldo even tries to recover here.

03:02See, to block his shooting lane.

03:04But Yuri's left-footed finish is pinpoint right into the corner.

03:08This was right after the World Cup break before he got injured.

03:11Now let's look at another play here.

03:12A more recent one from Corinthians in a match against Chappaquets where Corinthians lost.

03:18Look, Galvo receives the ball, also having some space.

03:21And notice Memphis, who wasn't in that match against Remo.

03:24In fact, he and Yuri didn't play together under Fernando Diniz.

03:27He drops back to offer a passing lane because that's Memphis' style of play.

03:31Memphis isn't the type of guy to make runs in behind,

03:34to make that diagonal run, receive a through ball, accelerate over the final few yards and score.

03:39Occasionally, he might score like that.

03:40But that's not the strongest suit of Corinthians forward.

03:42They're number 10.

03:43So, he drops back.

03:44That's why he and Yuri combine so well, right?

03:47He drops back to playmake.

03:48Yuri attacks the space in behind.

03:50Look at Yuri.

03:51In some games, the one trying to do that is Caio Cesar.

03:54But he isn't that type of player either,

03:56making that strong diagonal run into the final yards.

03:59He's the kind of guy who receives the ball and tries to take his man on,

04:02beating opponents with his pace on the counter,

04:04but not cutting straight towards the goal, not to be the finisher.

04:06So, here Garo carries the ball.

04:08He doesn't have a passing lane to Caio Cesar, right?

04:11Because Caio Cesar isn't that kind of guy either, as I said.

04:13So, his movement isn't the best possible in that sense.

04:16He's going to pass it to Mateuzinho.

04:18Notice that as the ball goes in, pause on the pass to Mateuzinho, Caio Cesar.

04:22He's gonna make a run to offer a passing lane down the line.

04:26Mateuzinho can play a through ball down there and he'll accelerate.

04:29And B, don't down here is the one making a little run to try and provide that depth.

04:34But notice that there's no one, absolutely no one, attacking this space right here

04:39or giving depth to Corinthians as the attacks.

04:42When Corinthians doesn't have Yuri Alberto, that's one of the main issues.

04:45Because of that, the rate of chances created drops.

04:48The shot rate drops.

04:49The number of goals drops.

04:50Now, Caio Cesar took it all the way down the line.

04:53Here, there are even a few Corinthians players arriving.

04:57But he's off balance here.

04:58He's got very little angle to make the cross with his right foot, which isn't his strong one.

05:02Only Biden is inside the box and he's not good with headers.

05:06The cross will go past everyone.

05:07When we access the database of Fantasy do Fútbol do Maximo,

05:11we'll see that in the key passes index, which are passes that end in a shot.

05:16Rodrigo Garo leads with 48 in the Brasileirao season.

05:20Except he is followed by two fullbacks, Mateozinho and Mateos Bidu,

05:26who will invariably make runs down the flank to produce crosses.

05:31Of course, they could be cutbacks.

05:32They could also be crosses looking for Yuri Alberto whenever he plays as a target man.

05:37But without a number nine for those attacks I just illustrated,

05:40to burst forward in the final yards or even eventually fill the box,

05:44Corinthians, with nobody in the box, loses both of these players in terms of playmaking.

05:49Their crosses won't find anyone.

05:51So, there are a few passes coming from Garo, who's also going through a rough patch in form.

05:57And because of that, from a creative standpoint, very little is left for

06:02a team that has its main options concentrated in three players and very specific style of play.

06:09Look at this other stat.

06:11Shots and shots on target.

06:14Shots attempted and shots on goal.

06:16Garo leads with 17 shots on target in 42 attempts in 26 games.

06:23Yuri Alberto, who has played fewer games, almost 10 fewer than Garo, is second,

06:28also with 17 in fewer attempts, 36.

06:30And then, further down here, we'll see Bidou with four shots on target, Gustavo Henrique with eight,

06:37Caio Cesar with nine.

06:39So, by this point in the video, you've already figured out what Corinthians' main problem is

06:43at this moment in the season.

06:45The team not only struggles to create good chances, but also struggles to finish the ones they have.

06:52This has been Corinthians' tactical setup in recent matches, with André Ranieri playing in the midfield pairing.

06:59Bidou in this row, starting from the left, but with plenty of freedom of movement to truly be a midfielder,

07:05right?

07:05Just how Fernando Diniz likes it, roaming around a lot.

07:08Garo in that number 10 row, second striker at times, close to Memphis.

07:11And Caio Cesar out wider, at times opening up the flank on the right side,

07:16and at others, cutting side diagonally towards the box, so Mateuzinho can push forward.

07:21Bidou is also a fullback who pushes forward a lot.

07:23They are two players with a strong attacking presence.

07:25These numbers even illustrate a bit of that point.

07:27The big problem is right here, look, leading the attack, not specifically with Memphis, of course,

07:32but in the position he's been playing, because since he is this furthest man forward,

07:36Memphis will naturally drop deep a bit more, as we showed in the example,

07:39to try to create a passing lane, to get closer to a teammate on the ball.

07:43And this space here, look, inside the box, it will invariably remain empty.

07:48So, while Yuri isn't back yet, though they are already speeding up his return process,

07:52and he should be back in the next few games, some solutions can be introduced.

07:56And the second half of the match against Fluminense showed, for example,

08:00that Guinegon coming off the bench can be an important guy to at least occupy the box,

08:05to at least offer depth, while Memphis drifts around a bit more.

08:09Of course, you can't play with 12 men, and right now, given the fullback's characteristics,

08:15in my view, Caio Ciza is a player who doesn't really help much in the style of play

08:19that Corinthians needs to develop.

08:23So, work could be done so that Garo, when defending, could cover this side,

08:28allowing Corinthians to go back to a two-striker system.

08:31And Breno Bidon drifting around a lot.

08:34He's a player, actually, like, more centrally, but here, with Andre and Ranieri,

08:37it doesn't seem like an option right now.

08:39So, he is drifting around a lot.

08:41And Garo, the same thing, coming off the right and drifting around a lot.

08:44Back at the start of Fernando Diniz's tenure, in a match where Corinthians went down a man,

08:48if I'm not mistaken, the derby against Palmeiras, Garo actually played this position here,

08:53shutting down the flank and working really hard off the ball.

08:55So, that could be a solution.

08:57To have a 4-4-2, Memphis can roam a bit more, and then Guinegal plays as that guy,

09:02providing depth, occupying the box, that focal point, even though he's not a traditional fixed number 9.

09:07This could be an adjustment for Corinthians to regain a bit more offensive presence,

09:12and with that, try to improve their firepower.

09:15Garo could also be, in this equation, a player who hasn't had a good run on the pitch.

09:19The guy to be dropped if the plan is to keep Caio Cesar to speed up the game,

09:23to add pace with diagonal runs, with Bidon playing that same role,

09:27and Memphis Depay being that player behind, right?

09:29To theoretically be the playmaker.

09:31That's also a setup that could work.

09:33The issue isn't even so much here in the midfield, it's more about this lack of a point man.

09:38And this problem has already become very clear in this run of games for Corinthians,

09:41which Fernando Diniz will have to make up for with someone from the squad,

09:44while Yuri isn't back.

09:45And of course, no crisis at a club of this size comes down to just one single issue.

09:50Everyone who follows soccer knows about the massive financial problems Corinthians has

09:53and the serious institutional crisis it's going through.

09:56In other words, there are no resources to bring in players

10:00who could turn things around for the team down the stretch this season.

10:03A few weeks ago, a statement from one of the Corinthians supporters' group leaders

10:07even went viral after he went to the training center for a meeting.

10:12And he said that those present ended up leaving shocked by the players' accounts

10:16of the conditions that Corinthians is offering right now.

10:20About the trouble paying salaries, bonuses, and prize money.

10:24So, the crisis is massive and it's coming from all sides.

10:28And of course, that has to be factored in when we evaluate Fernando Diniz's work,

10:32which yes, has its problems, yes, has its gaps, yes, needs adjustments.

10:37But what Corinthians offers today in terms of squad possibilities and outlook

10:41doesn't give the coach the tools to make such a huge leap either.

10:45Of course, it's not normal to lose six games in a row in the Brazilian championship.

10:52But right now, Corinthians doesn't have a strong enough squad to be anywhere other than in a relegation battle.

10:57So, let's make a projection here of how this end of the championship could play out for Corinthians.

11:02Look, when we scroll down the table, down to the bottom, which is where Corinthians is.

11:05Corinthians has 32 points earned in 38 rounds.

11:08They are in 14th place right now before returning from the FIFA international window.

11:13They are ahead of Mirasol, ahead of Vasco.

11:16A point ahead of Vasco, tied on points with Mirasol, winning here on the tiebreaker criteria.

11:20And three points ahead of Grêmio.

11:22Four ahead of Internacional, who is Corinthians' first opponent upon this return.

11:26Match, by the way, are tough, huh?

11:28Corinthians plays Inter away.

11:30Then they visit Palmeiras in the derby.

11:31Palmeiras thirsting to sink their arch-rival.

11:34They host Vitoria in a clash between direct relegation rivals.

11:37They have Vasco away from home.

11:39This match right here is very close to the Copa do Brasil semifinals.

11:42There's the Copa Sudamericana in between as well.

11:44And they will host Mirasol.

11:46So, they have Inter as a direct clash.

11:48Vitoria as a direct clash.

11:49Vasco as a direct clash.

11:51And Mirasol as a direct clash.

11:52Four of their next five games are direct clashes.

11:55Out of these, Vitoria is the most winnable of them.

11:58I think that's their first big chance to pick up points.

12:01And then, in my view, Inter.

12:02Even though Inter is changing their manager.

12:04So, for me, here in these two games, Corinthians can pick up a handy four points.

12:08I don't really believe that Corinthians will manage to snatch points in the derby against Palmeiras.

12:13So, for me, right here, in this first stretch of three matches, Corinthians will get four out of nine.

12:18That will bring them to 36.

12:20And they'll need nine more to achieve the goal of staying in the top division.

12:22In these two games, here against Vasco and Mirasol, Corinthians has a very positive track record against Vasco, right?

12:30Except that Vasco is in great form right now, even in the midst of playing the semifinals in the knockout

12:35competitions.

12:36It's very clear that Vasco's main goal will be to remain in the first division.

12:41So, over these two match days, Mirasol has also been on an upward recovery curve with solid performances.

12:45Very interesting.

12:46But over these two match days, I'm going to put three points down for Corinthians.

12:50They'll win the match against Mirasol.

12:51I think they'll lose to Vasco, which is something that rarely happens usually.

12:55So, 36 plus 3, 39.

12:57Six points for the final rounds.

12:59Corinthians' last four matches of the championship are right here.

13:02Look.

13:02Sao Paulo, away from home.

13:04This game probably won't be at Morumbi.

13:06It'll probably be at Villa Belmiro.

13:08Botafogo at home.

13:09A reunion with Chait in this game.

13:11They'll face Atlético Mineiro away, who are pretty comfortable there in the Brazilian League.

13:14They could also be on the verge of a Copa do Brasil and a Sudamericana final.

13:18They host Grêmio and go visit Rimo.

13:20So, right here, off the bat, I already think Corinthians takes care of both home games.

13:25Wins both of those matches.

13:2739 plus 6, they will already reach the 45 they need to avoid relegation.

13:32Besides, in these three away games here, they might be in a position to snatch a draw against

13:36Sao Paulo.

13:37Maybe win the Rimo game.

13:39Rimo will already have been relegated, right?

13:41So, I even project that Corinthians will pass those 45 points and will stay up with a bit

13:45of a cushion in the standings.

13:47It might only happen in the final rounds of the Brazilian Championship.

13:50This fight is very tight.

13:51But I think Corinthians will stay up.

13:53And you will stay right here on the Football Maximo channel by clicking on this link here.

13:57You'll access the playlist.

13:59You'll check out our fantasy game, which has the link in the description for you to click,

14:02set up your team, make your draft, and start a league to banter with your friend.

14:06You'll see you next time.

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