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- #palmeiras
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Palmeiras and Flamengo may play differently, but one stat could decide the title: finishing. We break down wild xG numbers, impossible misses, and outrageous goals to see why clinical finishing might be Palmeiras’ secret weapon. Think the stats tell the whole story? Watch and decide!
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0:00 - Expected Goals and the Championship
1:43 - Flamengo’s Misses and Miraculous Saves
5:08 - Palmeiras’ Low-Probability Finishing
8:02 - Comparing the Strikers’ Chance Quality
9:29 - Playing Style and Chance Creation
10:59 - Conversion Rates Decide the Championship
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#Football #Soccer #Palmeiras #Flamengo #xG
Subscribe for more football breakdowns!
Comment what you liked most from the video.
👉 This channel was created in collaboration with https://www.youtube.com/@futebolmaximo
0:00 - Expected Goals and the Championship
1:43 - Flamengo’s Misses and Miraculous Saves
5:08 - Palmeiras’ Low-Probability Finishing
8:02 - Comparing the Strikers’ Chance Quality
9:29 - Playing Style and Chance Creation
10:59 - Conversion Rates Decide the Championship
We're now available on Spotify! Listen now https://open.spotify.com/show/
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SportsTranscript
00:00Everyone sees Palmeiras' and Flamengo's playstyles as pretty different, fair enough.
00:04But what if I told you that, among all those differences,
00:07just one little detail is what will decide the championship?
00:10Do you really know your football?
00:13See if you can still read the game then.
00:14What's more likely to happen in this play right here, look.
00:16What's more likely to happen?
00:18And in this other play here, off this corner clearance where the guy winds up for a strike from way
00:21out.
00:22Yeah, you get it now, right?
00:24The fact that this ball went in for a stunner and this one ended in an unbelievable miss,
00:29was what made me realize something crazy, bro.
00:33Let me show you.
00:35First off, let's all get on the same page.
00:36Let's translate a feeling we get watching the game.
00:38Turn that feeling into numbers.
00:39You know this kind of play right here, look.
00:41Across, the ball drops to Felipe Filippiano.
00:43Right here, he winds up to shoot, see?
00:45Crowded in front of him, and all?
00:47With the defense well positioned here, it's that feeling of,
00:49well, if it goes in, great.
00:50The guy did well, if not, that's just how it goes.
00:52The defending team's fan is reacting like this, see?
00:55Oh, clear it, clear it, clear it.
00:57And the attacking team's fan is like,
00:58oh, for God's sake, don't miss the net.
01:00And either outcome is acceptable.
01:01That feeling of clear it, clear it, I don't miss the net.
01:03That means a 14, 15, or 16% chance of a goal.
01:07That's 0.14, 0.15, 0.17 XG.
01:12Keep that in mind.
01:13You'll never forget me.
01:14That one, the ball went in.
01:15That Flamengo play we saw at the start of this video right here.
01:18Look, this XG here is 0.95.
01:22That's right, a 95% chance of that ball going in.
01:25And this right here very rarely happens, right?
01:28And the other shot from long range, 0.02.
01:31In other words, a 2% chance of this ball ending up in a goal,
01:35and it hit the back of the net.
01:36These are individual plays.
01:38In a bit, we'll look closely at the collective numbers,
01:40and you're going to see something that, like, really decides a championship.
01:44The guys at Palmeiras have their shooting boots totally dialed in.
01:48Seriously, big time.
01:49More dialed in than the tire pressure on a Formula One car.
01:51Let's look at what our eyes see first.
01:53We can do a similar trick with this play here.
01:54Look.
01:55You can pause it right here and ask,
01:58Bro, can you read the game well?
01:59Who's going to score this goal?
02:00Lino?
02:00Is he going to pass it back for Bruno Henrique to score?
02:02Or is Carascal going to score?
02:04And then you say,
02:05I'll give you a hint.
02:06Look, who do you think is going to score this goal right here?
02:08And if you picked any of those options, you're wrong.
02:11The only one who'd get this right is whoever said he'd completely whiff it,
02:15catch the edge of the ball,
02:16and with an accidental Rabona touch,
02:18send it out of bounds on an XG of 0.8,
02:22an 80% chance of scoring.
02:24And you know what's crazy, bro?
02:26Flamengo's conversion rate,
02:27we're going to move on to the Palmeiras play here too, alright?
02:29Just to have a cool comparison for you to see.
02:30But the worst part is,
02:31Flamengo's conversion rate isn't even bad.
02:33Look at this goal right here.
02:34Check out this play by Flamengo.
02:36Look.
02:37He got there and sent in the cross,
02:39and Pedro goes in and scores.
02:40Look at that, see?
02:41I wasn't lying.
02:42Look, isn't that save amazing, surprising?
02:44It's because I wanted to remember the feeling we felt
02:46when we saw this save right here.
02:47Look.
02:47This is just crazy, man.
02:49The keeper dives early.
02:50Look.
02:50He's thinking like,
02:52it's over.
02:52I'm conceding this goal.
02:54I've got nothing to lose.
02:55If I just spread out like a frog,
02:57maybe, just maybe the ball hits me somehow.
02:59Who knows?
03:00And boom.
03:01What a spectacular save, you know, bro.
03:03That's because that was Rangel in the Flamengo versus Remo match.
03:07If that save was made by Coutois.
03:10Seriously.
03:10People would invent a trophy.
03:11People would invent a trophy for save of the year.
03:13And from now on,
03:14there would be a trophy for the best,
03:15most beautiful save of the year.
03:17Damn, what a goalkeeper, you know.
03:18So, what I'm talking about here isn't even about like,
03:21oh, the Flamengo player misses too many goals, whatever.
03:23It's just that anything can happen, bro.
03:26These guys miss goals.
03:27And then something happens that, man.
03:28Bro, I have never seen this in my life, bro.
03:30I've never seen this in my life.
03:32Sure, if we pull up some goalkeeper highlight reel from who knows when.
03:35Some old school stuff.
03:37The best saves in history.
03:38Then sure, we'd see plays like this.
03:40But watching the championship live,
03:41you're sitting there watching thinking,
03:43alright, this one's a goal.
03:44Bro, this is so bizarre.
03:46Everything happens, but the ball just won't go in.
03:48And this play right here is pretty much the definition of everything happening, right?
03:51Like, the striker messes up.
03:52The keeper pulls off a miracle?
03:54And then some mystical shit that never happens, you know?
03:57To me, Pedro made the wrong call here,
03:59trying to chest it in.
04:01And a spectacular save by Hugo
04:03after he was caught moving the wrong way.
04:05Look.
04:06And obviously a ton of people are going to be like,
04:07no, but Pedro scored with his chest.
04:09Yeah, bro.
04:10Just like a player who scores with his left foot.
04:12And sometimes he's supposed to shoot with his right,
04:14but forces it with his left making a bad call.
04:17And you're not going to say,
04:18come on, but he scored with his left before.
04:19Everyone knows the ability Pedro has
04:21to pull off this unique finish with his chest, obviously.
04:24But in this specific case here,
04:27the way the play is unfolding,
04:29the way his body is positioned,
04:30look at the way he's falling here.
04:32It looks like if he accidentally trips,
04:34he'd head the ball straight into the goal.
04:37You know?
04:37Here, he tried to finish with his chest
04:39and couldn't reach the ball.
04:41You know what I mean?
04:41This was a real bad decision.
04:43It's like trying to shoot with the wrong foot.
04:45And then after the goalkeeper's spectacular save.
04:47Do you see this number four here?
04:49The one sliding in along with Pedro?
04:51So, bro, he goes sliding right into the goal.
04:53And then he clears this ball here with his head on the ground.
04:56And he doesn't even know whether the ball went in.
04:58He's totally locked in.
04:59You feel me?
05:00This play here.
05:01Literally everything happened.
05:02I think the striker choked.
05:04The keeper pulled off a miracle.
05:05And the guy sliding into the goal
05:07made an unbelievable goal line clearance.
05:09And on Palmera's side, when it comes to that, bro,
05:12those guys are badass.
05:13These guys are absolute beasts, my brother.
05:15Check this out.
05:18Flacco gets this ball right here, man.
05:19This is like a 2% chance, bro.
05:21This is like a 0.02 xG, dude.
05:23With a 2% chance, he shoots it low and driven.
05:25A very accurate shot right there.
05:27Look how well it goes in.
05:29Right inside the post at the bottom, you know?
05:31With a 2% chance, bro, man.
05:33We just saw Flamengo's play with, look,
05:35an 80% chance of going in.
05:37And it didn't.
05:37We saw the play with a 95% chance of going in.
05:40And it didn't go in.
05:42And that wasn't all.
05:43A play with a 95% chance here too, look.
05:45It didn't go in.
05:46And we also saw a play with a 60% chance of going in.
05:49And it didn't, bro.
05:50Meanwhile, Flacco Lopez here, with a 2% chance,
05:53put the ball in the back of the net.
05:54And this right here, bro, at Palmeiras,
05:56this happens all the time.
05:57Look at this.
05:58This right here is a 1% chance, bro.
06:00Man, 0.01.
06:02The xG, the Flacco gets it here.
06:04Here it's 0.01 because there are a lot of people in front too.
06:07The angle of the shot.
06:08Look, those people in front affect the expected goals big time.
06:11It's the distance of the shot, the angle.
06:12And there are a lot of people in front.
06:14I've already noticed that this changes things big time.
06:16This really makes the expected goals vary.
06:18This right here is 0.01.
06:20Holy smokes, that's an absolute blast right into the top corner.
06:23But this is so gorgeous, bro.
06:24Look at that.
06:25Holy smokes, yes, bro.
06:27Just Flacco alone is already...
06:28Man, these guys are freaking awesome.
06:30This right here is 0-0.
06:31Look, few people in front.
06:32Aren't the expected goals ended up going to 0.04?
06:34Look at this, bro.
06:35It's a side foot strike.
06:36It's beautiful to watch, you know?
06:37And the expected goals don't lie, bro.
06:39Oh, but you're cherry picking the plays, whatever.
06:41Yeah, well, I'm picking the plays with low expected goals from Palmeiras that ended up
06:44as goals.
06:45Because Palmeiras scores this kind of banger right here.
06:47My God, this is Flacco again.
06:48Totally insane, man.
06:50This kind of banger.
06:51And those goals, that feeling of what I told you.
06:53About the 14, 15, 16%.
06:56Everything going into...
06:57Like this one from Flamengo, see?
06:58This...
06:58Wow.
06:59This one right here, look.
07:00It's 28.
07:01Right here.
07:02And it wasn't a goal.
07:03And the rebound is 28 again.
07:05In the very same play.
07:06And it wasn't a goal.
07:07This right here.
07:08This right here is 22.
07:09Look.
07:10Look.
07:10Face to face with the goalkeeper.
07:11This gives you an even creepier feeling than the one I explained to you before.
07:15Like, oh my God.
07:16Oh, clear it, clear it, clear it.
07:17No, this right here, bro.
07:18The Pluminense fan in this play right here.
07:19Is already scared shitless, bro.
07:20It's way worse than, oh, clear it, clear it, clear it.
07:23They're already seeing the goal happen.
07:24Already picturing it.
07:25My God in heaven.
07:26How are we going to play when we're trailing?
07:27A bunch of intrusive thoughts already come rushing in.
07:30Then Plata goes and does this right here.
07:32And then the Fluminense fan.
07:33Alright.
07:3422xg.
07:35This xg for Palmeiras is nothing.
07:36I don't even bother picking plays like that.
07:38Because for them, it's just consistent.
07:40Look how easy it is.
07:41Boom.
07:41This right here is 19.
07:42You know what I mean?
07:43And the ball really goes in this one here.
07:45This one here is like 5%, bro.
07:46Right here.
07:47The defense is well positioned.
07:49Not much presence in the box.
07:50Out by the corner of the penalty area.
07:51Kind of facing away from the goal.
07:52Finds an angle and bam.
07:54In the back of the net.
07:54There's nothing you can do.
07:55It's so, so bizarre.
07:57These guys have the sweetest touch.
07:59Perfect.
08:00Now the first thing that's a bit more frightening.
08:02I'll show you the main one later.
08:04Let's look at the players.
08:07Strikers.
08:08Look, Pedro's right here.
08:09Then you're going to say, come on.
08:11But Pedro puts more shots on target than Flaco Lopez.
08:14Here.
08:14Flaco is down here.
08:15Look.
08:15Flaco hits the target 35% of the time.
08:18While Pedro hits 54%, he even has more goals.
08:21So Pedro is finishing better than Flaco.
08:23Yes.
08:23But actually, this number here depends on how you look at it.
08:26In my view, the guy hitting the target more sometimes could mean the quality of the chances
08:31he gets given the way Flamengo is playing.
08:33And for Flaco, the quality of the chances he gets.
08:36And then with higher quality chances, he goes and hits the target.
08:39For example, if you look at Pedro's XG.
08:42Check it out.
08:43His XG is 14.
08:44Look.
08:45He had enough quality chances to score 14 and scored 16.
08:48Now Flaco Lopez, bro.
08:50If you look at his XG.
08:51Look at this, bro.
08:53Flaco's XG is 4.
08:55The quality of chances Flaco Lopez had to score goals adds up to an expected 4 goals.
09:00The plays we're watching explain the difference.
09:03That's what a player with a knack for finishing does, right?
09:05For those who don't know, this is our website.
09:06You can see a lot of cool stats.
09:08And if you click on this little play icon right here.
09:10Look.
09:11Click watch.
09:12You can watch all the videos we post on Freepaw Maximal.
09:15You can watch them right on our website without any ads.
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09:21On top of supporting our growth.
09:23Just by spending time on the site.
09:25And then what makes it even more glaring is that like these little plays here.
09:27And I haven't even shown you many plays from Palmeiras.
09:29These silly little plays that turn into an attack.
09:32Boom.
09:32A flick.
09:32Plays that if you see a guy miss, you think it's normal and all.
09:35Nope.
09:35The ball goes in.
09:36Meanwhile, Flamengo.
09:37Those guys are badass.
09:38Fine.
09:38But to score a goal.
09:39It's that huge struggle right there.
09:40Look.
09:41See.
09:44Missed.
09:45And then.
09:45Finally.
09:47After all that effort.
09:48Look at the effort it takes to get a bowl in man.
09:51And it's like bro.
09:53To what extent.
09:54Does Palmeiras really play ugly soccer.
09:56That collectively they don't produce.
09:59And it relies too much on individual moments.
10:01And where is it just like man these guys are truly badass.
10:04In training they focus like this.
10:06And they don't miss their chances because.
10:08They train so damn hard.
10:10Like what am I trying to say.
10:11For example.
10:12I don't like the style of play.
10:13That is going to the flanks and crossing into the box.
10:15Sometimes sending high crosses into the box.
10:17Sometimes getting to the byline and crossing.
10:19And then that's all the team has.
10:20Like I really don't like that kind of game.
10:23But let's say.
10:24They put you on a team that's.
10:26Cafu.
10:26Roberto Carlos.
10:27Adriano the Emperor.
10:28And Luisao.
10:29Oh absolutely.
10:30I spend the entire time just crossing.
10:31Trying every kind of play.
10:32And attacking move.
10:33Thinking only about crossing into the box.
10:35Sending in high crosses.
10:36From the byline.
10:37Only.
10:37That's all I do.
10:38Like to what extent is that also not.
10:39Maybe that's happening at Palmeiras.
10:41I don't know.
10:41You know.
10:41I don't know.
10:42I haven't really stopped to think about it.
10:43I haven't really researched this thoroughly.
10:45But I see these people summing it up.
10:47Flamengo plays way better.
10:48And Palmeiras can't play at all.
10:49Fair enough man.
10:50I also prefer it.
10:50I think it's cooler to watch Flamengo play.
10:52But bro.
10:53I don't know if it's really that big of an injustice either.
10:56Until I saw the second terrifying thing right in front of me.
10:58With my own eyes.
10:59In 2025.
11:00You see that Flamengo's expected goals.
11:02Luke was 63 in the entire championship.
11:04At the end of the championship.
11:05Palmeiras had 59.
11:06And since they have good players.
11:07It's totally natural for their goal tally to be a bit higher than their XG.
11:10Overall.
11:11Now in 2026 man.
11:12If we look at this year's XG.
11:14Flamengo has created chances worth 51 goals in the league so far.
11:17They've scored 58.
11:19Which is fine.
11:20And then if you look at second of the XG list.
11:22It's not Palmeiras.
11:23It's Bahia.
11:24With 47.
11:25If you check third place.
11:27It's not Palmeiras.
11:28It's Bragantino.
11:29With 46.
11:30If you check fourth place.
11:31It's not Palmeiras.
11:33It's Vasco.
11:34They're tied.
11:35If you check fifth place.
11:36Man.
11:37It's still not Palmeiras.
11:38If you check sixth place.
11:40It's Fluminense.
11:40And if I keep this little game going bro.
11:43This thing is going to go on forever.
11:45Palmeiras isn't seventh.
11:46Nor eighth.
11:47Nor ninth.
11:48In creating chances to score goals.
11:50Palmeiras is 13th.
11:53Producing the equivalent of 38 goals and scoring.
11:5752.
11:5852.
11:59If Palmeiras goal count reflected what they actually create on the pitch statistically.
12:03They would be in the bottom half of the Brasileiro table in goals scored.
12:07So how does that decide the championship bro?
12:10If you look at Palmeiras' conversion rate.
12:12They scored 52 goals from an XG of 38.
12:16If Palmeiras kept that same conversion rate.
12:18And if they had Flamengo's XG which is 51.
12:22They'd be way ahead in the lead with 70 goals scored.
12:26Would already be one of the best attacks in the history of the Brazilian championship.
12:30With rounds still left to play.
12:31And vice versa right?
12:32If Flamengo happened to have Palmeiras' conversion rate.
12:35Flamengo would be sitting at 70 goals scored.
12:37Most likely either of these two teams.
12:39In either of those scenarios.
12:41Would practically have the title in the back.
12:43That's what decides championships.
12:44Here's how the race stands.
12:45Because one would love to have the other's chance creation.
12:47And the other would love to have the conversion rate of.
12:49It's wild to think that finishing ability decides the championship rope.