00:00And to analyze what is at stake in this election, we are joined by a special guest, Sergio Quirnan,
00:06an Argentine journalist and also author of extensive experience in political analysis
00:12for media outlets in Argentina, in Brazil and also in the United States.
00:16Sergio, welcome from the south to our studios here in Caracas.
00:20Thank you Alejandra, very nice to be here.
00:22Very nice to have you.
00:24Brazil is facing much more than just an election.
00:27It is facing as well divisions in the electorate.
00:31It is facing as well scandals that are involving as well far-right candidates
00:38and far-right politicians in the nation with deep political tensions as well.
00:43So what really is at stake in these elections?
00:46Well, basically Brazil, like many other countries in the hemisphere and in Latin America, is deeply divided.
00:55There is like a big chasm between parties.
01:00In Brazil perhaps more so because you have a politics which is rather conservative, facing President Lula,
01:11who is progressive.
01:13But at this time, very much like in the United States, there is no moderation possible in the conservative area.
01:20You have to be with the extremist, which is, in this case, Flavio Bolsonaro, who is very much to the
01:28right,
01:30a politician with very authoritarian tendencies, a male chauvinist on record, and a person with a past.
01:42And as the campaign advanced, we were learning more and more about the son, number one,
01:50because basically he is running his political capital is being the son of Jair Bolsonaro,
01:58the former president who is in jail for 27 years for organizing a coup.
02:04He didn't want to admit he lost the elections four years ago, so he organized the coup.
02:11That included killing Lula before he could take over as president.
02:18Now we know ever more, more than we would like to know really, about his personal corruption,
02:26his sexual mores, it's coming out now, and you know, in general his lack of ideas.
02:36He's not a very creative candidate. He's not a person who gives plans, who tells you what he's going to
02:48do,
02:48what his nation needs. He is very much like, you know, don't worry.
02:54The task here is to get rid of Lula, and I'll sort it out.
03:01Lula, on the other hand, is a far more reflexive person, plus this would be his fourth term.
03:09He had two, and now he's trying to get the second one of the second batch, so to speak.
03:16He's full of ideas. He has a record. He can explain, which is what he's doing now to the electorate,
03:26why they should vote for him, giving himself as an example, showing his successful policies in the country.
03:36Let me give you an example. For the first time in history, there is no hunger in Brazil.
03:42It's official. The UN took Brazil off the map of hunger. It's officially no longer a country
03:50with pockets of permanent hunger. Say, education is better than ever. So that's the basis for his campaign.
04:01Also, Brazil did not belong to anyone's back, Jared. Those were the statements of the President
04:09Lula da Silva at the opening of the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly. I wanted to ask
04:14you,
04:15why has sovereignty became such a prominent issue in the midst of this election?
04:21Well, that's because of direct intervention from Donald Trump in the United States.
04:30The Bolsonaros have very good contacts with the American President. They started before he became
04:38president again. It accelerated. One of Flavio Bolsonaro's brothers, a former member of parliament,
04:48he's been living in the United States for two years now. His job is to lobby Trump and Marco Rubio,
05:00the Secretary of State, through Marco Rubio, Trump, in order to affect the Brazilian
05:08election elections this Sunday. And Trump delivers. So, first, it was the matter of the tariffs.
05:17That was very bad. Lula, fortunately, intervened. He had a conversation over the phone
05:23with Trump. Then they met in New York at the UN. It didn't happen. Now it was going to happen
05:31again.
05:32So, that was very bad for Flavio Bolsonaro. His brother cannot go back to Brazil now because
05:40he's facing charges of something that is a nice legalist for treason, basically. And it didn't sit
05:51down very well with voters. He lost quite a few voters and he was criticized by the press from left
05:59to
05:59right. No exceptions. So, this clumsy intervention of Donald Trump in the campaign. And it never
06:09gets all the way. Why? Because very clearly he wants to create trouble for Lula in order to help
06:18Flavio Bolsonaro win the vote. He wants to scare your average voter that you better vote for Flavio or else.
06:28Now, if Lula wins, they will see the else coming and things might get more complicated. But right now,
06:37it's a very clear American aggression against basic ideas of Brazil, you know, independence and
06:47autonomy of our countries. It's like, no, no, no, you cannot do that. And say, wait a minute.
06:52The other day, there was a call with Trump and Lula. And Lula explained that Trump started explaining to the
07:03president of Brazil how much bigger the US, how much welfare, how much more powerful militarily. And Lula said,
07:14listen, listen, I don't want to go to war with you. I just want respect, you know, like two countries.
07:23You don't dictate. I'm not going to attack you or anything. What do you tell me about your military?
07:31Are you trying to scare me? And he is concerned. Recently in this campaign, he asked his own party
07:40to come up with new ideas. And he came up with one of his own, which is to make Brazil
07:46stronger militarily,
07:50which is delicate for his party because, you know, all the left wing in Brazil is in his alliance.
07:59And they don't like these things about the military. He said, look, stop. The coup d'etat was 60 years
08:06ago.
08:07We're in a different world. What do you expect in a world where they kidnap presidents? A very direct
08:17allusion to the place we are in, Caracas. And that was really strong words. And it was like,
08:27made an impression. So Lula is really now trying to get Brazil to a stage where it can develop in
08:36many
08:36ways, including becoming a local regional military power, at least to defend the president.
08:47Lula kicked off his seventh electoral campaign in the same stadium where he became known as a social
08:54leader in 1979 while facing dictatorship. What does this say about the importance
09:00that Lula attached to symbolisms in the midst of his campaign?
09:05It's very important. And, you know, 1979, and he's still at it. And he's 80 already. I mean,
09:17talk of conduct. He's a very coherent guy. Back in 79, he was a young union activist that was becoming
09:26like the fulcrum of working-class opposition to the dreary dictatorship they had in Brazil. He was
09:36brilliant. The guy who was asking for civil rights, political freedom, and a better economy for the working
09:46person. That is also the seed of his party, the Partido dos Trabalhadores, the Workers' Party,
09:54literally translated, which 10 years later, in 1989, for the first time, competed in an election. So
10:05that's why this is Lula's seventh, and if he wins, fourth term. Not bad, 50-50. And he's a power
10:16in himself.
10:18And in this context, in which at 80, and after three terms, he's personally more moderate in attitudes. He's not
10:31the firebrand he was when he was young.
10:36But he wants to show that he's still the same person, that he is from there. You know, that
10:42stadium is in a small working-class city near the big Sao Paulo city. It belongs to a team,
10:52which is a symbol. It's a team from a working-class area. It has this association. If you work in
11:01a
11:01factory, you root for those guys. That's why he went back to that place, too. That's why he hired that
11:08place in 1979. And that's why he's back almost, wow, 50 years later. He's back at the same place to
11:19to show his roots, to show his class. What could be the impact of October 4th outcome
11:29for the countries of the Global South, for Latin America, and also for the multipolar world?
11:35Well, we are very aware that Brazil is the largest, most populated,
11:42largest country in South America. That's very clear. If we lose Brazil to Flavio Bolsonaro,
11:51all this American idea of the shield of the Americas and all that, it's going to be a serious concern,
12:00not just, you know, a political show as it is now. Because, well, you know, having Brazil,
12:08with all its power and influence, is totally different. It could very well spell the end of
12:15Mercosur, the common market of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia. It might very well
12:24happen, because the president of Argentina doesn't like Mercosur, and neither does Flavio Bolsonaro.
12:32The other thing is, it would change the tenor of politics in the hemisphere. It would become more
12:42authoritarian. There would be nobody to set the bar different. It would cost lives, not in big political
12:51things, but police forces would feel entitled to kill more and more freely if they do it in Brazil.
12:59If everybody around is a conservative right-winger or worse, as Lula say, fascist, which is not outrageous
13:10when it comes to Flavio, we are all in trouble. It changes everything. It changes the tone. Having at
13:17least one large, powerful country moderating the rest, counterbalancing, not just the United States,
13:26Donald Trump in person, which is different, that would be very good. On the other hand,
13:34if Bolsonaro wins, it's going to be tough for all of us. It's not just the Brazilians.
13:42Brazil is too important to matter to Brazilians only.
13:47Thank you very much, Sergio, for your time here and from the South for also helping us understand
13:53the bigger picture of Brazil and how it is arriving to this crucial moment, not just for Brazilians,
14:00but also, as you mentioned, for Latin America, for the peoples of the Global South. Thank you very much.
14:05Thank you, Alejandro. It's a pleasure.
14:07Thank you, Alejandro. It's a pleasure.
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