00:00We continue with the analysis of the aftermath of the electoral day.
00:03We welcome from Sao Paulo, Jana Silverman, PhD in Economic Development,
00:08Visiting Professor of International Relations and Coordinator of the International Committee
00:13of Democratic Socialists to discuss more about these electoral results in Brazil.
00:18Welcome Jana to From the South.
00:22Hi, thank you for having me.
00:24It's a pleasure.
00:25Jana, my first question will be, as we are just coming from the aftermath of the electoral
00:31results, we saw, as it was predicted, it was going to be a very tightly contested match.
00:37There's only a two percentage difference between the two main candidates.
00:40So what's your analysis coming of these electoral results?
00:43What's the analysis of the whole electoral process?
00:49Well, that's quite a big question, especially since we're still in the process of analyzing
00:55it.
00:55You are correct in saying that the opinion polls were correct, that the final result was within
01:05the margin of error of the previous opinion polls that came out in the last week or so,
01:09except that there was a lot of expectation that Lula would have come out in first place,
01:15with Flavia Bolsonaro close fine in second.
01:18The result, obviously, was the contrary.
01:20I think what we are seeing.
01:21I think what was most shocking, perhaps, beyond the presidential results was the results, especially
01:27for the Senate, where you have a practical sweep by the far right in almost all of the largest
01:34populational centers in Brazil, especially in the South and Southeast regions.
01:50So what you're seeing is a rejection on a certain level of the continuous in governance, right?
02:00People are looking for something new.
02:02So they're rejecting, you know, for better or for worse, you know, the Workers' Party
02:07of Brazil has been in power for over, you know, 20 years with the short break in time when
02:13Jair Bolsonaro was president from 2018 to 2022.
02:17So people are looking for a change.
02:19But at the same time, that change is not very well articulated.
02:22You know, Flavia Bolsonaro, during his campaign, did not have any coherent policies that he campaigned
02:30on, especially with regards to economics, with regards to trade policy, with regards to foreign
02:35policy.
02:36You know, basically, he was just only talking about public security issues.
02:42And even then, with very few actual policy proposals.
02:45So I think going forward, the expectation is that it's also important to mention that neither
02:50presidential candidate participated in any presidential debates before the first round.
02:56There should be debates that will happen before the second round, three weeks from now.
03:00So hopefully that will actually be a moment in which the electors will be able to actually
03:04think concretely about policy proposals that the two candidates are proposing.
03:10Yana, we were just speaking previously with a correspondent who was referring to on the
03:14strategy to follow in this period of the second period of campaign ahead of the runoff.
03:19And as he was speaking that in Brazil, they are saying not to go for the voters that voted
03:25for the other candidates.
03:26But instead, there was a high number of abstentions in this electoral process.
03:31And instead, go to target those voters to convince them.
03:34And there they could find success in, let's say, overcoming these results and win the second
03:41round of elections.
03:42What is your take on what strategy will be taking coming up in this period of two weeks
03:46of campaigning ahead of that second round of election?
03:52So I largely agree with that, the comment made by the person, the correspondent in Rio.
03:59I think people, what we saw also, the reason why Flavio Bolsonaro's vote was so high last
04:04night, was that many people who were really thinking initially in voting for a third candidate,
04:09who might have been more center right, not a far right wing, ended up feeling that they
04:15should just vote for Flavio Bolsonaro in the first round to avoid a potential Lula victory
04:21in the first round.
04:22So I think, you know, the Bolsonaro vote is very consolidated.
04:26The country is extremely polarized.
04:27So I do agree that there's going to be very little space to convince people who already
04:33voted Bolsonaro to change their vote before the second round.
04:36Where we are, in terms of the abstention, the abstention was a record abstention.
04:41But also keeping in mind, it was only one percentage point ahead of last year's, not last year,
04:482022's election.
04:49So it is a large amount of people, if you look at it as a whole, in terms of an
04:56actual
04:56number of 33 million people.
04:58But at the same time, abstention is, the high levels of abstention is becoming a regular
05:03practice in Brazilian politics, despite the fact that voting is mandatory in the country.
05:08So I think there needs to be an extraordinary effort by the Lula campaign, you know, to go,
05:14you know, door by door, you know, conversation by conversation, for people to individually
05:20go and talk to their neighbors and family members and co-workers to make sure they go out
05:26and vote.
05:27And obviously, hopefully for this candidacy if, you know, in terms of, because again, what's
05:32it take?
05:33It's very big.
05:34I think people, again, because the issues, the actual concrete issues about issues like
05:38healthcare, education, you know, foreign policy, economics, they were not discussed practically
05:45at all in this first round.
05:47So it's going to be very important for the Lula campaign to focus back on the issues, focus
05:52back on the issue of Brazil's sovereignty, the sovereign access to rare earth minerals,
05:58to oil reserves that Brazil possesses, that certainly countries like the United States have their eye
06:03eye on, that way that we can get those people who were frankly uninspired to vote in the
06:08first round to come out and make that effort in the second round to be able to make up that
06:131.8 percentage point difference between the candidacies of Bolsonaro and Lula.
06:19Thank you very much, Diana, for your time and your inputs here with us in From the South.
06:26You're very welcome.
06:27Thanks for having me on.
06:28It was a pleasure.
06:29Thank you, sir.
