00:00The International Monetary Fund IMF expects global economy to grow at 3.1 percent in
00:062026, up from the 3 percent forecast in July.
00:10In its latest global financial stability report, the IMF says strong investments in artificial
00:17intelligence is helping to offset energy shocks from the war in the Middle East.
00:22However, it warns that a prolonged conflict and rising public debt are key downside risks
00:29to the outlook.
00:31If it hadn't been for the type of resilience that we've seen in terms of the release of
00:36inventories, the response from other non-Gulf producers, the lower oil demand and the lower
00:46intensity of oil at the global level, then in that type of scenario, actually global growth
00:54would have been 2.5 instead of 3.1, what we have in the moment.
00:58So that is one factor.
01:01She said global growth would have fallen to 2.5 percent in 2026 without these measures,
01:07but their effect is fading as the war drags on.
01:10The IMF also warned that the global economy could soon reach the limits of its resilience
01:15as emergency oil stocks run low and government finances come under pressure.
01:20The latest forecast also assumes that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in March 2027, with shipping
01:26conditions returning to pre-war conditions by October 2027.
01:30The IMF also warned of a growing divide in the global economy.
01:34Countries that rely heavily on energy imports but are not benefiting from the AI boom face the
01:40greatest risks.
01:41And indeed, we are seeing a fairly small number of countries that are benefiting from this AI
01:49related boom.
01:51And the bulk of the economies are affected by the energy shock and such, and that is the dominating
02:00factor for many of those economies that are not plugged in in the AI supply chain.
02:05The IMF also warns of the financial risks from AI markets, underlining the interconnected nature
02:12of big AI companies and the high level of borrowing being undertaken to fund investment in the sector.
