00:00If they were to make the Connor-Hellebuck trade, would that needle move at all?
00:06Yes, I think it would, and I think it might buy a good amount.
00:10I think they would climb into the top ten.
00:14I think they would probably jump teams like Washington.
00:17I mean, I think they very easily could do that.
00:20So, yeah, they were not that far.
00:24They actually were a little bit lower, by the way, to start the season,
00:26so maybe teams have fallen below them.
00:28All right.
00:29Like Montreal, for instance.
00:30Montreal had better odds, and now they have the same odds
00:32because they've had a worse start than the Sabres have,
00:36and maybe so have a few other teams.
00:38But, yeah, I think they would go up.
00:40I think you would have to.
00:43If you're seeing a team that is, in one hand, not being able to get saves,
00:49like it's one of their weaknesses so far on the year,
00:52and they just plug in the best goalie of his generation,
00:56who won the gold medal last year and won two of the last three Vezina trophies.
01:01Yeah, that team's odds would go up.
01:03And that can happen, too, just from even if you make moves, right?
01:06Like Washington didn't prove anything on the ice.
01:09Washington went out and made moves during the offseason to get better,
01:12and guess what happened to their Stanley Cup odds before they ever played a game?
01:15They went up.
01:16So I would think expectations would raise for them,
01:19and I think all of that would follow suit.
01:21It is at five on five, by the way.
01:24It's worth pointing out.
01:24I know this is not exactly perfectly predictive.
01:28I'm on naturalstattrick.com.
01:30The Sabres save percentage at five on five.
01:32Do you know where they rank?
01:33No.
01:3431st.
01:35It's bad.
01:3731st.
01:38Now, save percentage isn't exactly perfect because not all saves are the same.
01:41Right.
01:42But that is one of those ones.
01:44I don't know.
01:45Do I not have to dig into that?
01:47Is it just because it confirms what I already think about them
01:50and how they have not had good enough goaltending to this point?
01:54Like, how many points does it cost them?
01:56Yeah, pretty much.
01:57To be 31st in save percentage, people would say,
01:59so PDO is your puck luck, right?
02:01Your shooting percentage plus save percentage.
02:03And that's something people will always look to say,
02:07well, that'll average out.
02:09If that's really high, you can expect it to come down.
02:12If it's really low, you can expect it to come up
02:13because these two things make for your puck luck.
02:16Sometimes your puck luck lasts the whole season.
02:18Anyway, in PDO, the Sabres are near the bottom of the league,
02:21but that is pretty much all because of save percentage.
02:24Their shooting percentage is about middle, normal,
02:27and their save percentage is 31st.
Comments