00:00Okay, let's turn from there to our big international story and one of our top headlines today.
00:05Two very significant election results have come in from Brazil and Serbia.
00:10In Brazil, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva has won a fourth term as Brazilian president at the age of 80.
00:17In a big comeback after losing the first round, Lula defeated the far-right candidate Flavio Bolsonaro,
00:23the son of former president Javier Bolsonaro.
00:26The 80-year-old leftist leader got 51.79% votes against Bolsonaro's 48.21%.
00:33Bolsonaro, however, has refused to concede defeat, alleging that there were question marks over the voter turnout.
00:40In Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic lost a snap parliamentary election after a decade as president.
00:47Vucic was defeated, interestingly, by a student-led protest movement, which won 52.6% votes.
00:54The student movement was formed only two years ago, raised corruption as a main election issue.
01:01But it is to Lula that I want to focus today because this victory comes at a time when, remember,
01:06he is someone who has taken on Donald Trump.
01:09Donald Trump actively campaigned against Lula or at least endorsed Bolsonaro.
01:15Lula started as a union leader in the late 1970s, contested presidential elections in 89, 94, 98, lost them.
01:22He won the election in 2002 to become Brazil's first elected working-class president, stepped down after two consecutive terms
01:31because Brazil doesn't allow a straight third term, return to power after winning the 2022 election.
01:38Joining me now to understand why Lula's victory is so important, Alan Likman joins me, political analyst, distinguished professor of
01:46history at American University.
01:47And Paolo Antonio Pereira Pinto, former Brazilian diplomat and author who served as the Council General of Brazil in Mumbai.
01:54Thank you both very much for joining us.
01:56I want to come to you, Mr. Likman, first.
01:58Why is this victory so significant of Lula, according to you?
02:04It is of the utmost significance.
02:07Let's not forget, Brazil is the most populous nation in Latin America, with over 210 million people, far outpacing Mexico,
02:20which is second.
02:21It is seventh in the world in its population.
02:26So Brazil is of grand significance.
02:30And what this election was testing was the durability of the right-wing wave, which has really swept across Latin
02:41America, places like El Salvador, Chile, Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, even Costa Rica.
02:49This election counters that right-wing sweep, which has been so important in Latin America.
02:57And it shows that Brazilian democracy is still alive and well and likely to survive into the future.
03:06This is also a big blow to Donald Trump on the eve of the American midterm elections.
03:13They are just eight days away.
03:16And while Donald Trump did not officially endorse Bolsonaro, clearly that was his candidate.
03:23That was what he preferred to happen in Brazil.
03:27And it's a big black eye.
03:28And just like Donald Trump, Bolsonaro does not believe any election is fair unless he wins.
03:35You know, there was an extension of voting, but it was supported by both parties, not just the Lula party.
03:44So Bolsonaro does not have any sound basis for challenging this election.
03:50But just like Donald Trump in America, it doesn't matter.
03:54So long as he loses, it couldn't be a fair election.
03:59I want to bring in Mr. Pereira Pinto for a moment because it appeared that Lula was facing huge odds.
04:09He was struggling in the first round, wins in a face-off.
04:12And many believe it was voter mobilization and the decisive role of turnout.
04:17If there's any lesson from Brazil is that you've got to bring your voters to the polling booths.
04:21That's a lesson for us here in India as well.
04:24That eventually parties which bring out their voters to the polling booths are the ones that win.
04:28What, according to you, turned the election for Mr. Lula?
04:38Mr. Pinto, what, according to you, turned the election for Mr. Lula?
04:46Okay, I'm going to try and see if I can get to my guest in Brasilia.
04:53Can you hear me, sir?
04:57Okay, we will try and connect to him.
05:01But Mr. Likman, you know, you're making the larger point of believing that this is the resurgence of the left.
05:07Many will say that, is it premature to see this as a political realignment across Latin America?
05:13As you rightly said, many other Latin American countries today have moved to the right.
05:17What, according to you, makes Lula different?
05:21What makes Lula different, I think you put your finger on it.
05:24He had real grassroots support.
05:28You know, he has working class roots.
05:30He's been elected several times already.
05:34And as you point out, mobilization is everything in these elections.
05:39Let's not forget, he was behind in the first round before the runoff.
05:45And all the polls, every one of them, had him within the margin of error, but had him behind.
05:50So what happened was, he made inroads in the southern areas, which were generally strong for the right,
05:57and did well in the northern areas that tended to support the left.
06:02This shows the importance of doing real politics, of getting your message out and getting your voters to the polls.
06:12We'll see to what extent that happens in the U.S. elections in just eight days from now,
06:19when, like in Brazil, you might have more of a mobilization of the Democratic left and the Republican right.
06:28At least the polls are showing more enthusiasm against Trump than for him.
06:33Interesting.
06:34Paulo Antonio Pereira Pinto, if you can hear me now, what was Lula's secret sauce?
06:39Yes, thank you very much for having me.
06:44Yeah, what was the secret sauce?
06:46Why do you believe Lula won despite the odds?
06:49Well, I think that he was defending democratic and civilizational values against fascism
06:57and regret and neglect for the rights of the working classes.
07:04That's what made him win.
07:06And what does it mean for a country like India?
07:09You've got President Lula having committed strongly, for example, to BRICS.
07:14Do you believe that Lula is seen as someone who now wants to build a stronger coalition of countries from
07:25the global south,
07:26bring together a kind of, if I may call it, an anti-Trumpian alliance in some form or the other?
07:35Well, sir, I have a very personal opinion about that.
07:38First of all, if you don't mind, I'd just like to make a short introduction about myself.
07:43I'm a retired ambassador.
07:45I don't speak on behalf of the government of any official institution.
07:49And so I have my personal opinion is that Brazil does not have to follow some definite rules like China,
08:01you know, is advocating the Silk Roots and things like that.
08:07We have to find our own trails.
08:09And of course, India is very much on our imaginary because, as you know, Brazil was discovered, among brackets, by
08:20Portugal, when the Portuguese were trying to find their way to India.
08:24So India is always, you know, imaginary since we go to primary school here in Brazil.
08:31So this is a country to which we find ourselves very much attached.
08:37And besides that, you are the largest democracy in the world.
08:43So since we want to stay as a democratic country, as we showed yesterday on Lula's victory, India is very
08:53important to us.
08:55Right. You know, this whole belief, though, Mr. Likman, in conclusion, that what we are seeing is, as Lula put
09:06it, and as Mr. Pinto is putting it, a fight for values.
09:09Do you believe that this fight is now with the midterm polls in the United States?
09:14We're hearing that as well.
09:15This is a fight for democratic values versus what Donald Trump is seen to represent.
09:19Is that going to be now the new contestation, Mr. Likman?
09:23Besides that, we are fighting for our own sovereignty.
09:27Yes.
09:27We are too big.
09:28Yes. I take your point. I take your point, Mr. Pinto. This is a fight you're saying for sovereignty. Yes,
09:33Mr. Likman?
09:34Yes. Absolutely. Democracy is on the ballot in this midterm election.
09:39By an overwhelming majority, voters are worried about the corruption and the self-serving and the grift of the Trump
09:47administration.
09:48They're worried about their democracy.
09:51Yes, inflation and the economy, as you would expect, is at the top of voter concerns.
09:57But democracy has moved up.
09:59It is now one of the more significant of voter concerns, and that is clearly a barrier to the election
10:08of Republicans because they are tied to Donald Trump.
10:11One of the Likman rules of politics is that House and Senate candidates cannot run away from the president of
10:20their own party.
10:21I've studied that. It doesn't help.
10:24You are inevitably tied to Trump and all the issues people have about our democracy.
10:30Well, we wait and see how that plays out in a U.S. election.
10:34For today, the focus has been on Lula and what he's achieved in Brazil.
10:38I appreciate my guests, both from Brazil and the United States, joining me here on the show tonight.
10:44You can see those emotional scenes there in Brazil.
