- 7 minutes ago
A panel of international affairs experts analyses major political shifts shaping the global order, including the presidential election in Brazil, upcoming polls in Israel, and the United States midterm elections. Journalist Felipe Ferraz outlines President Lula da Silva's remarkable electoral comeback against Flávio Bolsonaro, highlighting reduced abstention and allegations of foreign interference. Security analyst Saul Satka evaluates Israel's political trajectory, asserting that foreign policy stances regarding regional threats and strategic ties with New Delhi remain firm regardless of leadership changes. Alexander Slater, former managing director of the US-India Business Council, assesses how American domestic political turbulence and trade tensions could impact US-India ties. Strategic affairs expert Dr. Tara Kartha notes the economic pressures and inflation driving anti-incumbency across nations, stressing New Delhi's imperative to maintain diplomacy while managing regional conflicts, remarking, 'Barring the US where anything could happen and does, the rest of it is handling things as we go.'
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Let me go straight to Brasilia, in Brazil, where journalist Philippe Ferrazo is joining us.
00:08Philippe, I appreciate your time. The numbers tell a remarkable story in your country.
00:13Lula went on from trailing by 2.2 million votes to winning by 4.4 million votes.
00:19Where precisely did that electoral turnaround come from?
00:26Yes, this was a remarkable overturn of the elections in Brazil, the presidential elections.
00:34This is historic. This has never happened before.
00:38It never happened in Brazil. It's the very first time.
00:42And this outcome happened mostly because of the reduction of abstention in Brazil during the first round and the second
00:54round.
00:55And also a mobilization of the supporters of President Lula in the streets and also in digital communication.
01:07This was the most impressive overturn that he made in his career.
01:15He's running now for the fourth term as president of Brazil.
01:21He's president-elect for the fourth time.
01:24And we may also conclude that he was able to reduce and diminish votes from the main opposition member,
01:39the candidate Flavio Bolsonaro, that has also lost.
01:43He lost votes in major areas of Brazil, in major cities, in urban areas, and also in the regions of
01:54Brazil, in the southeast of Brazil, and in the north of Brazil.
01:59Okay.
01:59Some crucial states of Brazil changed in main cities, such as Rio de Janeiro, that voted mostly in Flavio Bolsonaro
02:11in the first round.
02:12And now Lula won in Rio de Janeiro, for instance.
02:16That was a big difference, and that made difference because in that region, in the southeast of Brazil, states like
02:25Rio, Sao Paulo, and Minas Gerais,
02:28they concentrate their most populated areas, and they have the most major numbers of electors.
02:37Let me bring in other guests who are joining us on the show.
02:40Saul Satka is a security analyst.
02:42Joining me from Tel Aviv, Alexander Slater, former managing director of the U.S.-India Business Council.
02:48He's joining me from Washington, D.C.
02:50Dr. Tara Kartha, strategic affairs expert, joining me from here in India.
02:56I'm going to begin with you, Saul Satka, because, of course, the elections will be held in Israel tomorrow.
03:03There are, that's an election again, which is being watched by one and all.
03:10So, help us understand, is this an election that could fundamentally change Israel's politics?
03:19Is it about the man himself?
03:23Is it the election about Benjamin Netanyahu's political future?
03:28Or is this an election which will decide the direction of how the country engages with the world outside?
03:38Well, no, not really.
03:39It certainly won't make much difference for Netanyahu's political future, since Netanyahu is nearly 80 years old.
03:45So, if he would win, he would be on his way out fairly soon anyway from his political career, realistically.
03:50So, it doesn't really make that much difference as far as that's concerned.
03:54And for the country itself, well, the people standing opposite him are centre to centre-right.
03:59They would be a centre to centre-right government replacing a right-wing government.
04:03It wouldn't really make much difference to how they face the world.
04:06And certainly, you couldn't really put a piece of paper between the opposition, who would form a government, in theory,
04:12if they would outdo Netanyahu in the election, in Netanyahu, in terms of its relation to Gaza, to Hezbollah, or
04:19to the Iranian regime.
04:20All of them agree there's a complete consensus across the board within Israeli politics that all those people have to
04:26be a room of politics.
04:29Alexander, you know, New Delhi has invested in a strong relationship with Washington.
04:36There is an unpredictable White House that India has been dealing with, particularly in the context of the trade deal.
04:43But American politics is becoming increasingly unpredictable.
04:46Could a mid-term setback for Donald Trump change the trajectory of India-U.S. ties on trade, tariffs, defence,
04:55technology?
04:56Or is the bipartisan strategic consensus on India strong enough to withstand all the domestic political turbulence, if any?
05:07Well, thanks for having me here today.
05:09It's wonderful to be able to discuss the question.
05:11Of course, the midterms are a week away here in the United States.
05:16And the polling shows that it's not looking good for the president and the president's party.
05:23In terms of the specific question, I don't think that there's much drift from where the Democratic Party was, and
05:33it's that look on India, from, let's say, the end of the Biden administration, where, as you said, there was
05:38a strong bipartisan consensus.
05:40And it certainly looked like, at the start of the Trump administration, that that would continue when Prime Minister Modi
05:46was in the United States in February, right after President Trump's inauguration.
05:52Of course, that changed, right, when there was this escalating trade tension between the two countries and rhetoric from the
06:00president's part and fallout from the confrontation between Pakistan and India in April.
06:07And so, a year ago, April, pardon me.
06:12And so, we find ourselves today in a place where, again, I think the Democratic consensus is very much on
06:19India, is very much the same as it was at the sort of halcyon days of the two countries.
06:24And it's really the Republicans where the wavering is taking place as part of a tougher trade stance towards India
06:31by the president.
06:34Dr. Tadakarta, let's look at the result which has come in already, which is Brazil.
06:40And Brazil has delivered a major political verdict with Lula's victory over Bolsonaro, even as the right retains a substantial
06:50electoral base.
06:51What does this tell us about the global contest between established political parties and the populist right?
06:58And what lessons do you think India should draw from the resilience of these political movements?
07:05That's an excellent question.
07:07I think it's also the margin, I think, is about 3% between the two of them, which shows there
07:15is a massive divide.
07:16Like you said, there is very little give between these, you know, these two parties.
07:21And I think there's going to be a challenge.
07:23I hope there's no, you know, there's no further trouble down the line.
07:26But it's really, I find it so, not strange perhaps, perhaps it's inevitable that the causes that have led to
07:34the victory of one
07:35has pretty much is replicated across the elections elsewhere as well, barring Israel, in the protests in Europe, rising costs,
07:44etc.
07:45All that, you know, it's the same things that you see in every election.
07:48Everybody in the US, the main issue is about inflation, about rising costs, about government, lack of accountability of the
07:56government.
07:56So these, I think, are spreading not just in elections, but also in the protests that you see.
08:03It's the same issues, which is very interesting.
08:06Even, for example, in terms of climate change.
08:09Climate change is not directly part of the protests, but it's also part of the elections here.
08:15It's a very fundamental process.
08:16And I mean, personally, I'm glad that President Lula has won, because under him, the rainforest at least is back.
08:23You know, it's again growing.
08:24I love that.
08:24But these are all extremely divisive issues.
08:29And going ahead, I don't think President Trump is going to be very happy with, you know, the whole Lula's
08:39win.
08:39Things are not looking good as we go along.
08:42But that thin margin, Maria, is what is worrying.
08:47That very, very thin margin between these two.
08:50Of course, it's a lot more than last time, but it's still a very thin margin.
08:55I'm going to take that question to Philippe, who continues to be with us from Brazil.
09:01And this is with regards to what was being discussed during the course of the campaign and also the allegation
09:07that came from President Lula's side.
09:10That there was some kind of support or some Trump administration support in favor of Bolsonaro's family.
09:19Was there a sense particularly among the electorate that the level playing field was being impacted?
09:25And how much do you see that perceived American interference in Brazil's democracy playing as a factor there?
09:33Perhaps swinging it in favor of President Lula.
09:37Also by the government, by President Lula, that he mentioned a lot of times, many times, very oftenly I would
09:47say, that there was ongoing American interference.
09:51Well, since last year, the U.S. policy towards Brazil was very tough in different areas of political relations with
10:01Brazil, commercial trade and tariffs, also with India and with Brazil as well.
10:07And by political reasons, I mean, the U.S. administration, the Trump, Mr. Trump administration, argued that Brazil was different,
10:22doing a different policy towards dissenters.
10:26I mean, political dissenters, and that they should also participate in the elections, they tried to force Brazil to do
10:37business with the U.S., rather with China, and to have more commercial advantages.
10:48All of this made the impression to the Brazilian public, to the Brazilians as well, and to the government, that
10:59there was a kind of American interference.
11:02It's very hard to say how this could impact the electoral outcome.
11:11But it's clear that the Lula's government made the sovereignty of Brazil one of his main flags during this campaign,
11:20and that in the end, we could see nationalism in the streets of Brazil.
11:27And that until this point, until now, at this moment, the U.S. administrations remain silent.
11:35And that was, this is also, we have to notice this, because this is not what happened when Mr. Trump
11:45won elections in the U.S. in 2024, Lula da Silva very quickly came public to, and recognized Mr. Trump's
12:01victory over Kamala Harris,
12:05who Lula was who Lula was supporting.
12:07So, this is a different stance from the U.S. administration towards Brazil now.
12:15And, well, Brazil is watching all over the world.
12:21And even, I would say, there is an important ongoing movement that local countries, countries in our region, they are
12:33very linked to the U.S. and politically and ideologically,
12:38are recognizing mostly the outcome of Brazil's election, such as worldwide.
12:45Okay. Alexander, do you think that this kind of perception which has been generated,
12:51that the Trump administration is interfering in the internal matters of other countries, you know,
12:59it was very evident that the Trump administration was supporting the Bolsonaro family over President Lula,
13:09and that has not gone in his favor.
13:12Of course, you know, President Lula is back and how.
13:16Do you think that this will also become a talking point in the midterm polls,
13:21given how it is being seen as a referendum on Donald Trump,
13:26the overall sense that he is trying to impact election outcomes in other countries?
13:36I don't. I think that the American public is very much focused on what's happening here in the United States.
13:43You know, President Trump is deeply unpopular.
13:45And when he has the lowest approval rating of any president at a midterm election schedule point in the last
13:5380 years.
13:54And so if you look at the reasons as to why Americans aren't happy with him,
14:01they cite things like affordability.
14:05Some folks are very upset with the immigration policy.
14:08Some folks are really upset with the way the economy is being handled and jobs.
14:13And other people are really talking about graft and what here is called grifting,
14:19effectively trading political influence off for private favors.
14:24And no one sort of really points to what's happening overseas and their efforts to impact foreign elections.
14:31But this is about his foreign policy.
14:34This is very much about what U.S. is doing with other countries or trying to do with other countries.
14:42Absolutely.
14:43At the same time, as I was going to say, that doesn't mean that President Trump himself is not a
14:51factor in other elections.
14:54Again, if you look at the polls, Americans are not citing foreign policy, aside from the war in Iran, as
15:00a reason for Trump's unpopularity.
15:02At the same time, if you look at how elections went in Canada and Australia, people were very mad at
15:09Trump.
15:09And parties there that were not expected to win before his election won in landslides.
15:15And in Canada in particular, it fostered the election of Mark Carney, who effectively is leading the international charge against
15:22President Trump's trade policy.
15:23And so the efforts by the Trump administration to interfere in foreign elections, whether it's in Germany or Brazil, through
15:32support, or even in the recent Canadian referendum on independence by the province of Alberta, it's all backfired.
15:41And so it hasn't been successful.
15:43And so to the extent that it creates a negative aura around the sort of powerful image that President Trump
15:52wants to project to Americans, it has an impact.
15:55But again, I don't think that it's what people are voting on in the midterms.
15:58Okay. So, Al-Satka, how do you see the outcome shaping India-Israel intelligence sharing or, you know, defence cooperation
16:10or other areas of cooperation and the wider regional equation involving Iran and the Gulf?
16:17Well, certainly I don't see any impact realistically between whatever happens for the Israeli election.
16:23Whichever side wins, whether it's the centre-right that wins or the right that wins, the bonds between Israel and
16:29India are something that everyone agrees needs to be strengthened.
16:32There's really a bond of brotherhood between Israel and India.
16:36We have the same kind of enemies.
16:38We all know terror and we know how to fight it, as we saw earlier this month with the heroism
16:43on the Fly Dubai incident.
16:45And certainly we expect to see a growing relationship between the incredible 1.4 billion people of India and the
16:5410 million people of Israel.
16:56We can share technology and various defence tech.
17:00And I really think that is certainly going to happen with whoever wins the election.
17:05Certainly there's a good personal relationship between Netanyahu and Modi.
17:08And no doubt that will continue, whether he wins or not.
17:12But yet I'm sure that President Modi, Prime Minister Modi, who is absolutely a statesman of world-class calibre,
17:21will know how to do business with anyone that replaces Netanyahu if Netanyahu does not succeed in the coming election.
17:27Let me give the final word to the woman on the show.
17:30Dr. Tara Kartha, with Brazil's political direction, Israel's election and the U.S. midterms all in focus,
17:38India clearly is navigating a world where domestic politics increasingly shapes foreign policy.
17:45How should New Delhi manage its relationships with Washington, Israel and Brasilia
17:52if these political shifts begin to pull their foreign policy priorities in different directions?
17:59You know, luckily the one good thing, Maria, is that our relationship, for example, with Israel,
18:04as the gentleman said, that remains, no matter who comes, who goes, that's a very, very strong relationship.
18:10However, I would like the war to stop.
18:13We've just added 14,000 crores to our fertilizer subsidy alone, 74,000 crores deficit because of the war.
18:20We need that war to stop no matter who's there.
18:23That is a given.
18:24In the U.S., I think it's not going to be a fundamental change.
18:28I mean, it will be, Trump will continue.
18:30I mean, nobody is going to, at least as far as I know, you can't really, technically speaking,
18:36you can't remove him or anything.
18:37So he continues.
18:38But some of those legislation is going to have a problem.
18:41I think that all that will definitely, I think the way the Pew research polls are showing,
18:46it seems like the Dems are going to have a run in the Congress.
18:50In Brazil, to be honest, the biggest challenge is that under President Lula,
18:56the amount of Chinese investment has gone up quite a bit.
19:00We are talking of $6 billion last year.
19:03I don't have the latest figures.
19:04So that was a challenge then.
19:06It's a challenge now.
19:07So essentially what I'm saying is, it's pretty much, barring the U.S.,
19:12where anything could happen and does, the rest of it is handling things as we go.
19:17And I think we've been fairly fleet-footed as of now.
19:22We've managed pretty well.
19:23And let's see where this goes.
19:26All right.
19:27And Dr. Tara Kartha will continue to be on our shows over the next few days.
19:31So really appreciate your time.
19:33So also, Alexander Slatter, Philippe and Dr. Kartha, I appreciate your time.
19:37Thank you for joining us on this broadcast.
19:39That's all from me.
19:40Thanks so much.