00:00Is Trinidad and Tobago in a recession?
00:03That question sparked a sharp economic exchange in the Senate
00:06as Minister in the Ministry of Finance, Kennedy Swartzing,
00:10insisted the country is not in a recession.
00:12But Opposition Senator Vishnu Danpol challenged that assessment.
00:17I want to state emphatically, Mr. President,
00:21for the national community to know,
00:27unlike what others are saying,
00:30this country is not in a recession.
00:39And let me say that by concluding,
00:42using the words of the Minister of Finance in the other place.
00:4518 months ago, this government accepted the responsibility
00:49of restoring stability.
00:51We're building confidence and returning the interests of the people
00:55to the centre of national decision-making.
00:57Minister in the Ministry of Finance, Kennedy Swartzing,
01:01as he defends the 2027 budget in the upper house.
01:05But Swartzing was in for an economic lesson
01:08by former Permanent Secretary in the Finance Ministry
01:11and now Opposition Senator Vishnu Danpol.
01:15In the energy sector, contraction of 6.6%.
01:20In the energy sector, contraction of 0.7%.
01:27In the last quarter of 2025, real GDP contracted by 1.2%.
01:33While the first quarter of 2026, real GDP fell by 1.8%.
01:38The central bank's own index of economic activity
01:42for the second quarter of 2026 shows the economy down 3.2%.
01:47Three consecutive quarters.
01:50And you can find out on page 5 of the economic data pack.
01:57Mr. President, let us call it what it is.
02:01200% is in a recession.
02:02Danpol said two quarters of negative economic growth
02:06indicate a recession.
02:08The central bank index of economic activity
02:10has now fallen year on year for four consecutive quarters,
02:15down 1.3%, 2.8%, 3.6%, and 3.2%.
02:21Page 5 of the economic data pack.
02:26By any ordinary definition, our economy is in recession.
02:31And the body's statement does not use the word once.
02:34He said just last week, the PM in her budget contribution
02:37referenced the IMF's May report.
02:40Mr. President, why is the Honorable Prime Minister
02:43quoting the IMF report?
02:45That report was not laid in Parliament.
02:48What we have to analyze is the review of the economy.
02:53And the review of the economy states that the country
02:56has projected a contract by 2.2% in 2026.
03:03Why is the Honorable Prime Minister using that document
03:06that is dated May 2026?
03:12Is the Prime Minister saying that she has no faith
03:14in the review of the economy?
03:15Dan Paul notes that while the PM suggests economic growth,
03:20the review of the economy predicts a contraction of 2.2%.
03:25Are we saying that the data in the estimates are unreliable?
03:31Including the $500 million error in the TH estimates?
03:39Therefore, is the Minister's analysis of the budget wrong?
03:45Is the Minister's analysis of the budget wrong?
Comments