00:00It's fair to say the theme for this week's 10-day trend is going to be pretty different to last
00:05week's.
00:05We've said goodbye to the storms and instead we have high pressure and fog.
00:10So currently the jet stream is still pretty active, but this time last week it was running across the Atlantic
00:17at speeds of around 200 miles per hour, coming across the UK, driving those low pressure systems,
00:22those deep low pressure systems that brought all the stormy weather.
00:26Now the jet stream is meandering to the north of us and with that then we have high pressure building
00:32across the UK.
00:33The high does shift away towards the east a little bit and that allows for a frontal system to come
00:37into the northwest
00:38through Friday and into the beginning of the weekend, but then that front sort of decays
00:42and then we get two high pressure centres merging together and then the end result is by the end of
00:47the weekend
00:48and into the beginning of next week a big blocking area of high pressure across the UK,
00:53which is why it's going to be so very settled, so very dry.
00:56Good news for some, not so good news for those hoping for some rain.
01:01If we run it back and actually look at the weather that we can then expect through the next few
01:05days,
01:05and you can already see that frontal system in the west bringing rain, but it's out in the Atlantic for
01:10the time being.
01:10For Thursday it's dry, it's largely calm.
01:13The wind's picking up later on across some western parts of Scotland as that frontal system starts to edge its
01:18way in.
01:19And then as we go into Friday, yes, there will be some rain across parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland,
01:24but most areas having a dry picture.
01:27Not a huge amount of rain making its way particularly far south and east.
01:32The only real cause of concern will be the potential for some fog to develop through the nights,
01:37because with largely dry, settled weather and light winds,
01:42that's the perfect ingredients for some fog to develop, particularly where we get any skies clearing.
01:48If we run it through then through Friday, and you can see rain continuing later in the day
01:53and overnight into Saturday across parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland,
01:56it doesn't look particularly heavy, just some moderate rain pushing through elsewhere.
02:01That's where we're highly under the influence of that high pressure,
02:03and we're going to continue to see the potential for some fog to develop as we go through the nights.
02:08Now, ahead of the front, that's where we're most likely to see the fog developing.
02:12It could be locally dense, but as that front edges further southwards, yes, the rain will break up,
02:17but it's also going to help kind of clear the fog somewhat.
02:21We're going to see the breeze picking up through the weekend across those southern parts,
02:25and so as we head towards the beginning of next week, we're going to see fog less of an issue
02:29across southern areas
02:30and perhaps becoming more of a thing further north.
02:32Here, there may be a few spots of rain, and even elsewhere, there could be some drizzly outbreaks of rain
02:37where the cloud is thick enough, and so it may be a bit damp at times,
02:41but, like I say, not a huge amount of rain to come.
02:44If we look at the rolling rainfall totals through the next few days then,
02:47and you can see some traces of wet weather across many places through the next couple of days,
02:53but it's across Northern Ireland, parts of Scotland, particularly in the west,
02:56where we're going to see the higher rainfall totals.
02:58Because even here, as I mentioned, the rain's not especially heavy.
03:01Look at the key.
03:02We're talking less than 50 millimetres, not a substantial amount of rain to come over several days,
03:07and many places not seeing, well, a millimetre or so, really,
03:11and some parts staying completely dry.
03:14As I mentioned at the start, some places still desperately need some rain.
03:18I know we've had a lot of wet weather through the last week or so,
03:21but the severe drought continues in some parts, so this really isn't good news for many places.
03:26A big talking point, though, will be the fog.
03:28I've already touched on it, but if we just look at how that's going to develop through the next few
03:33days,
03:33and this chart here shows the potential visibilities for looking at the London area for the next few days.
03:40And so, yeah, Thursday morning could be quite foggy, and also Friday morning,
03:45and then the risk of potentially also Sunday morning could cause some problems.
03:48But then, as that front edges southwards, we see the breeze picking up.
03:52We're going to see the potential for fog disappearing across these southern areas as we go into next week.
03:57If we look at the same graph, but this time for the central belt of Scotland,
04:01and the picture's slightly different, not as much fog around.
04:05We've got some colours here, but they're indicating visibility more in the mist,
04:09or even greater visibility than that sort of region.
04:12And then it's as we go into the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week
04:17where we're more likely to see fog here.
04:19And here, by night, temperatures could be dropping below freezing,
04:23and so there could be some freezing fog around, which is, well, problematic in its own respect.
04:30So a big talking point through the next 10 days really is the fact that high pressure is going to
04:35be firmly in control,
04:36and as a result, it's going to stay largely settled.
04:38We can see that in this chart here, which shows us the most likely pressure set up around the UK.
04:44The reds indicating higher pressure, and higher pressure, yes, means generally settled.
04:49Strong agreements between the models, high confidence that we're going to have high pressure firmly in control across the UK
04:54through the weekend, through much of next week.
04:57It's not really until the back end of next week, maybe the first full weekend of November,
05:02where we may start to see something a bit more changeable developing.
05:06We can look at that in a different way with these maps here.
05:08Which show us the first, second, and third most likely setups for each day next week.
05:14And, well, the most likely setup, a 91% chance.
05:17That's pretty high confidence when we're looking several days ahead.
05:20Has high pressure dominating the picture across the UK.
05:23And a similar story when we look to the picture for Tuesday.
05:27Again, high pressure, most likely firmly in charge.
05:3075% of the chances decreasing, as you would expect, looking further ahead.
05:34But worth highlighting, the second and third most likely setups are fairly similar, with high pressure still nearby.
05:40Now, on Tuesday, that's when we're perhaps going to see the peak of the high pressure.
05:44And we're looking at the pressure readings in some parts of the UK, reaching around the 1040s hectopascals.
05:50And if you draw a comparison to on Saturday, when we had pressure readings in the 940s, well, it's a
05:56rise of around 90, almost 100 hectopascals in just a week or so.
06:01So that's quite a different story to what we had over the weekend.
06:05Much more settled weather to come.
06:07And that theme continues as we go through the following days as well.
06:10Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, still likely to see high pressure in control of our weather.
06:15So the weather's staying pretty settled.
06:17The percentage chance of seeing these setups does decrease as you get further ahead.
06:21But that's what you usually expect.
06:23With the high pressure, however, it's worth highlighting a few things.
06:27Yes, there will be the continuation of the potential for some fog to develop overnight.
06:32And some days we could see that fog lingering through much of the day.
06:35If you're stuck under that fog, well, it's actually going to feel pretty cold at times, especially if it's freezing
06:40fog in parts of Scotland.
06:43Likewise, though, or conversely, if you get some decent bright sunny weather and with mostly light winds, actually it should
06:50feel pretty pleasant, pretty warm for early November.
06:53One thing to highlight, whilst it is generally dry, we can see the anomaly in this shading here.
06:58So a generally dry theme for many places, especially towards the west.
07:01There could be some showers coming into some eastern, southeastern parts.
07:06But these are, if they do develop, likely to be pretty light.
07:09So not really enough to help with the severe drought in places.
07:15Looking even further ahead, well, looking through the next two weeks, and I've picked Leeds, looking at ECMWF meteorograms here.
07:21And there are a few things that I wanted to draw your attention to.
07:23The cloud cover, well, here it indicates that on the whole, it looks like it will be fairly cloudy at
07:29times.
07:29There should be some brighter breaks, but often quite cloudy.
07:32But it's this precipitation amount.
07:33You can really see there's very, very little rain.
07:36It's not really until we get to that first full weekend of November, where we start to see some rain
07:45popping up.
07:45But we're looking quite far ahead there.
07:48So that could just be a case of increased uncertainty, because it's well over a week away.
07:52So really a very dry theme, a calm theme, not particularly strong winds.
07:58And temperature-wise, well, they're going to be dropping gradually through the next 10 days.
08:04And this sort of setup at this time of year, with a stagnant air mass over us, you would expect
08:09temperatures to just gradually drop.
08:11Because, well, the sun doesn't have any real strength.
08:13So even though there will be some sunshine around, like I say, if you do get stuck under any low
08:18cloud, any murkiness, mist and fog,
08:20temperatures are going to be really suppressed.
08:22So really a very settled picture, which may be good news if you're going trick-or-treating, if you have
08:28bonfire night plans, that's welcomed.
08:31But it's not so good news for those desperate for some rain, because really for many areas away from the
08:36northwest, there's barely going to be any.
08:38And even in the northwest, it's not a substantial amount.
08:40See you later.
