00:02Good to see you all. Hope you're all good. Oh, we've just got Lily joining in now. Just
00:06add her in. There we go. Lovely. Yeah. Morning, everyone. Hope you're all good. Thanks, Steve,
00:13for joining. I'll pass it over to you. Yep. Okay. Cheers. Yeah. Good morning, everyone.
00:18Let's just share my screen. Should I get the right one? Right. So this is the analysis. That's
00:30surface dew point. You just put the 8, 950 wet bulb on. So yeah, we can see this warmer air,
00:38which is moving northwards as forecast. The thing it didn't really go according to plan was the
00:44amount of rain for Southeast England last night. You know, we've had, well, yeah, nothing like
00:52what was suggested. There has been some heavy rain over the Southern North Sea close by, but
00:56the heavy precipitation that was expected across this part of the world, sort of Southeast
01:02England, is not materialized within that warm plume. For those of you that were here yesterday,
01:07it's coming northwards. The upper trough driving it, that's not much help, is it? It's right across
01:14the screen there. I haven't got time to change that now, but yeah, completely disorientated me.
01:21There's the UK there. This is the trough that came northwards. It was a little bit faster and a
01:27little bit more potent further east. You can see the sort of darker blues in here. So the heavier
01:32precip just missed. And, you know, as you know, from yesterday, we had a lot of concerns over
01:40the detail of the structure sort of coming up from the south and the southwest.
01:45So I have made some tweaks to the warnings today. Let me just refresh that.
01:53So this is today. The wording is exactly the same as far as rainfall amounts are concerned,
01:59but just made minor changes to the sort of the spatial coverage, largely to include a little
02:06bit more of the northwest. So although things have not gone, you know, particularly according
02:12to plan overnight, I think as we go into today, these are the 24 hour, 12 hour totals to nine
02:19o'clock this evening. And this is the convection, which breaks out to the rear of that plume.
02:25So, I mean, looking at the profiles, you know, they're still very unstable, deeply unstable.
02:32That's the South Midlands 1500 today. So I think, you know, on balance, you know, we're still
02:39expecting to see convection breaking out across this corridor. And that's pretty well supported by,
02:47I'll just drop this into the guidance, by the ensembles. So this on the right hand side,
02:54where my cursor is flicking around at the moment, this is 25 millimeters in 12 hours, probably until
03:002100 today. So you can see the corridor in there, and this is for 50 millimeters in that same time
03:07frame. So yeah, so there's the warning. The warning pretty much covers that area. You know, and if you
03:14look at, you know, the latest precipitation totals, you'll see that convection starts to break out. So
03:23this area of England and across parts of Wales, around about the early part of the afternoon,
03:29quite vigorous, quite deep. Obviously not everywhere seeing it, you can see that, you know, just in that
03:34image there. But then organising themselves potentially into a bit more of a line as we go into, you know,
03:40the evening period, which sort of covers the axes almost of that warning that we've got out.
03:46So yeah, still a bit of uncertainty, but I still think, you know, we're likely to see
03:50convection breaking out in that zone. Could get a little bit, you know, the isolated understorm
03:56elsewhere, but I think it's probably unlikely given the profiles elsewhere. It's not completely
04:00impossible, but unlikely. And the warning covers the main risk area. And then tomorrow, well, yeah,
04:08I mean, there's another band of precipitation. It's got far more in the way of support from the
04:14various solutions. So this is the global model. Let me just put something which isn't theta W
04:20based, so it's a little bit clearer, isn't it? Yeah, so this is the global model at 1,500
04:25tomorrow. Quite a broad area of quite intense, heavy, thundery precipitation. The emergency is
04:30the longest of hours of rain, so these purples in here. And you see, although it spreads things
04:35out a bit more when it gets there, as a similar sort of area at risk. And if you look
04:41at the
04:41ensembles, you know, again, fairly supportive of the operational models. So, yeah, I've updated
04:49the warning area for Thursday, shaved out East Anglia, but included the whole of Wales now,
04:58and extended a little bit further north into northern England. Again, text is very similar.
05:04Excuse me. The only thing I've done is I've just increased the likelihood to low of medium impacts
05:12in here. It's still yellow. For today's one, it's very low confidence of medium impacts are much more
05:18isolated, potentially. So that's where we are. Typical kind of autumn setup where things are,
05:27you know, a little bit uncertain. You know, quite a lot of moisture in the boundary layer. The dew points
05:32are quite high. Sea temperatures are quite high. So it's all quite responsive to that very complex
05:38upper forcing, which, you know, you can see here, if I just drop back to say 1800 today, it's really
05:44quite messy. So there's a lot of structural detail in there, which the model is going to, you know,
05:49really, you know, struggle quite understandably to capture, you know, accurately. So broadly happy
05:57with the way the evolution is expected to go. But details will probably be a little bit
06:04difficult to come by. So air mass is pretty warm. 25, 27 quite widely across parts of England and Wales,
06:11for instance, where we get some brightness and we could make 28 or 29 in the sunnier spots. And dew
06:19points are up, so it's got a more humid feel to it. So there's the convection today, extending into
06:25southwestern parts of Scotland, quite a lot of cloud from Northern Ireland, within that moist plume,
06:31which will dampen, I mean, it won't be cold there by any means, but it'll dampen temperatures now a
06:35little bit. And then the showers during this evening is dying out. And then we get the next plume coming
06:41in.
06:43And, you know, you can see here, of course, Biscay really well forced that plume. That's 18 this
06:49evening, and then it comes northwards, and you see lots of forcing sat in behind it, and pretty high wet
06:54bold potential temperatures there as well. So not surprisingly, it all lights up a little bit
07:02and brings some heavy precipitation into England and Wales from the south. It might be a little bit
07:08gusty in southern parts during the early part of the morning. There's hints of little
07:15mesoscale convective systems, you know, embedded within this. I don't think it'd be a big point
07:21of the forecast, but certainly, you know, a fair bit of lightning, small hail, and possibly locally
07:27very, you know, locally large hail, maybe a centimetre or two in size, which is fairly good
07:31for the UK. Yeah, and then that sort of moves northwards and slows down. As I was saying, it's a
07:37broader area. It's got much more coherent, strong forcing behind it, and there is, you know, more support
07:43for this. So I think, you know, tomorrow, a pretty wet day for many places across southern and central
07:51parts. The kind of exception to that is southwest England, which, you know, there's always, you know,
07:57this is GFS on the right. You see in the middle ourselves on the left here. You can see there's
08:00a bit
08:01of a gap in all of those solutions, and that gap across southwestern parts is also part, you know,
08:07reflected, you know, in the ensemble. This is 9 o'clock in the morning, so this area here, if I
08:14chose a different time, such as 3 o'clock in the morning to 1500, you would find this, you know,
08:19the yellows and browns shifted into southeast England. I think it's more likely it's just the
08:23southwest, which might be a little bit shortchanged on the rainfall that's needed. So that's about that.
08:31Beyond that, the bank holiday weekend maintains the unsettled theme, as you can see. So this is
08:42Thursday, low over the country, quite warm air in place, outbreaks of rain. Friday, we're keeping a
08:50close eye on northeast England, eastern Scotland, I should say that, as far as warnings are concerned.
08:57At the moment, there's a lot of variation in detail where this occlusion ends up between solutions,
09:03so confidence isn't high enough, but that's definitely a watch point for anybody covering
09:07forecasts for parts of eastern Scotland, southeast Scotland, and northeast England. That then moves
09:13out of the way, and as you can see, as we go into the weekend, you have further systems coming
09:18in from
09:19the west. Still quite warm air, not as warm, but still quite warm. But there is a trend over the
09:25weekend,
09:26as you can see here, of this Atlantic progression, just trying to get slightly less warm air in.
09:32I think by the time we get through to the back end of the weekend and Monday, temperatures will be
09:36closer to average than on the warm side. But as you can see, it's quite unsettled. Outbreaks of rain,
09:43heavy showers potentially, the odd thunderstorm, and at times reasonably breezy. I don't think it's
09:48going to be windy enough for warnings. But yeah, an unsettled look to things for the bank holiday
09:53weekend. So I think that's about it. At risk of coughing anymore, I will hand back to Liam.
10:02Great. Thank you, Steve. I just ran down the list because then I was going to have questions.
10:06Tori, anything from you in a minute?
10:08No, but I wish I had a lems if I could send you, Steve. Bless you. Get better soon.
10:12I know. I'm sick of this now. I'm sure you are sick of listening to me coffee and hacking away
10:17as well. I do apologize for it. Oh, good, Steve. Thank you. Pip?
10:23I know. That was all super useful. Thanks, Steve. Great. Nick?
10:27Yeah, really good. Thanks very much, Steve. Lovely. Lily?
10:34All good. Kerry? Thanks, Steve. Lovely. Charlie?
10:39Yeah, it was really good. Thank you. And last but not least, Amanda.
10:44That was great. Thank you. And feel better soon, Steve.
10:47Thank you. Awesome. Right. Yeah. We'll give Steve a bit of a break. We'll leave it there,
10:51guys. Have a good day and I'll catch you soon. Take care. Bye, everyone. Bye.
