- 14 hours ago
It's Breeders' Cup and our three-person TDN Writers' Room team of Bill Finley, Zoe Cadman, and Randy Moss go through the two-day card race by race to give you their handicapping selections. There's some agreement, but a lot of different viewpoints on offer!
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00:00:17Welcome to another edition of the TDN Riders Room podcast presented by Keeneland and it's
00:00:22a special one.
00:00:23It's our annual Breeders' Cup Handicapping Extravaganza, so buckle up everybody.
00:00:28Today, Zoe Cabman, Randy Moss, and myself will be giving you all our handicapping opinions.
00:00:33And once again, my name is Bill Finley.
00:00:35I'm a correspondent for the Thoroughbred Daily News.
00:00:38I am the aforementioned Randy Moss.
00:00:40I am not in jail.
00:00:41I am sitting at Keeneland on the track apron.
00:00:45I'll prove it.
00:00:46There you see a nice little shot.
00:00:48Keeneland grandstand there.
00:00:50The only drawback is who knew it could get so hot out here in front of the grandstand at
00:00:54Keeneland.
00:00:55I mean, it's pretty brutal right now.
00:00:57I'm in a long-sleeve NBC half-sip.
00:01:00They do have cocktail service, apparently.
00:01:02I can just scan a little code over here.
00:01:04I don't know.
00:01:05We're taping this on Tuesday.
00:01:06I might not be able to get a mimosa out here, but I might try.
00:01:11If I was there, I'd bring you one, Randy, without a shadow of a doubt.
00:01:17And it's not very often that your phone would overheat at the end of October at Keeneland.
00:01:24So it just goes to show you how warm it is there.
00:01:28I'm Zoe Cameron with First Racing and First TV.
00:01:31Before we get going, I do want to give a shout out to the TCA and their bash at the
00:01:36Breeders'
00:01:36Cup, which is being held this Friday.
00:01:37Tickets are still available at tca.org.
00:01:42My good friend, Michelle Yu, will be hosting that as I am here closing out the weekend at
00:01:47Santa Anita.
00:01:48So if you don't have your tickets, head to tca.org.
00:01:52And Bill, let's get going.
00:01:54Yes, let's get going because we have an absolute ton of things to talk about.
00:01:58Let's do this in chronological order, starting with Friday.
00:02:02And the first race on Friday is the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.
00:02:07This is presumably one of the races where the U.S.
00:02:10horses, the turf races, have the best chance.
00:02:12They've won five of the last, excuse me, five of eight runnings in the history of this race.
00:02:18The favorite is going to be Libertango, who comes in here from some good races overseas.
00:02:25Flavian Pratt takes over.
00:02:27My problem with him, guys, is he can't get out of the starting gate every single race,
00:02:32dwelt, et cetera.
00:02:34If he doesn't get out of the gate quickly in this race, I don't see how he can possibly
00:02:39catch up.
00:02:39Excuse me, she.
00:02:41And a matter of fact, seven of the 12 entrants in here are fillies.
00:02:45So guess what, guys?
00:02:46I'm going with my main man, Paco Lopez, who upset on Harper's Corner.
00:02:51I think this filly is the clear speed in the race.
00:02:55Ran well last time out in the matron.
00:02:57I think the turn back and distance a little bit from six furlongs to five and a half might
00:03:02give her an extra shot.
00:03:05And let's see what Paco can do with her.
00:03:08An interesting race to start off Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.
00:03:11Well, Bill and I have not been sharing notes, I promise.
00:03:16Brickyard Bell, the favorite in here, just barely ran down Harper's Corner in their last
00:03:21matchup in the matron six at Belmont.
00:03:23And that was at six furlongs.
00:03:25And now Harper's Corner only has to go five and a half.
00:03:27They got a really good, you know, speed figure out of there.
00:03:31The analytics are really good for that race.
00:03:33So I like Harper's Corner to win.
00:03:34The thing about Libertango, all right, now she's been running three quarters of her mile
00:03:38as well.
00:03:38When it says dwelt, one thing I've noticed watching all the videos, and if you're handicapping,
00:03:43keep this in mind, dwelt over there is not the same thing as dwelt here.
00:03:50Here, if a horse says dwelt in the past performances, they're off four or five lengths behind the
00:03:55field.
00:03:55Over there, when a horse breaks like a half length slow, they put dwelt.
00:04:01And by our standards, it's not really dwelt at all.
00:04:04But even having said that, Libertango is a deep closer.
00:04:08And I think at five and a half furlongs, that might work a little bit to her disadvantage.
00:04:12But I have fillies one, two, three in here.
00:04:14Because Brickyard Bell is a contender as well.
00:04:18Brickyard Bell is a major contender in here.
00:04:21And she's got a half-brother who will be going in the turf sprint as well in Joe Shiesty.
00:04:25It's not often that that particularly happens.
00:04:28Two really good horses, brother and sister, competing in a Breeders' Cup event.
00:04:33So that'll be certainly a rooting interest for a lot of people there.
00:04:37She's by Yaupon, out of Ready to Unleash.
00:04:40She's obviously a very good broodmare indeed.
00:04:42So I do like Brickyard Bell.
00:04:44I'm going to stick with Libertango and Trust and Flavor and Pratt.
00:04:47I love that George Bowie's brought this horse over.
00:04:50He brings Servie as well.
00:04:52And I love the fact that he goes to Pratt.
00:04:54Obviously, Billy is elsewhere.
00:04:58Who is Billy riding?
00:04:59Is he?
00:05:00Let me see.
00:05:01He's got several mounts on Saturday, I know.
00:05:04Yeah, he's not riding anything there.
00:05:06I'll tell you who should be in the race and who's not.
00:05:09Adonius.
00:05:10They completely overlooked the Indian summer stakes at Keeneland when they opted to pick horses to go in this.
00:05:17That is a crying shame that Rebecca Mendes' horse is all the way down on the also-eligibles.
00:05:23Very doubtful that that horse will get in.
00:05:26But I do like Libertango in here for George Bowie.
00:05:30Black Name does have a mount on Friday, at least one mount.
00:05:34He's riding Skolmesa Sakura in the Juvenile Phillies turf for Andrew Balding.
00:05:39So it's interesting that he's not on this.
00:05:40I like the fact, though, that they go to Flavia and Pratt, American track, American rider.
00:05:45It's odd, though.
00:05:46I find that very odd because Billy is like the leading jock and is closely tied to George Bowie.
00:05:55Well, as Randy said, you can't go wrong with Flavia and Pratt.
00:05:59And speaking of Flavia and Pratt, he has one of the horses to beat in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Phillies.
00:06:04He takes over from J.J. Hernandez on Miss Monica.
00:06:08Looks like the betting is going to come down to Miss Monica versus Emphatic.
00:06:12Both horses look like they have excellent chances in there.
00:06:15I think it would probably come down to one of the two.
00:06:17I'm going to go with Miss Monica, however.
00:06:20I don't know what she beat in the Del Mar debutante, but she was so impressive.
00:06:25I mean, it's one of those efforts where you just say, wow, look how confident Hernandez was,
00:06:30even though he goes on to lose the mount to Pratt.
00:06:33Maybe Zoe and Randy have some comments about that.
00:06:36I'd be interested to get their thoughts on that.
00:06:38As far as Emphatic goes, I'm not going to throw her out, but she got to the front in the
00:06:46Alcibiades in 48-3 and kind of walked on the lead.
00:06:50There's no chance that's going to happen.
00:06:53This horse, Lexi's Charm, who got to the lead for Mark Cassie in a sprint race, is obviously going to
00:06:58set the pace.
00:06:59So I'm going to give a little bit of a negative on Emphatic and, you know, how can you go
00:07:05wrong, Zoe, with Bob Baffert in a Breeders' Cup race for a two-year-old of either sacks?
00:07:11Miss Monica for me.
00:07:14Well, yeah, I think she's going to be a heavily beaten favorite, if I'm being perfectly honest, Bill.
00:07:19Now, Bob's record in the Juvenile is excellent.
00:07:22He's won that race six times.
00:07:24He's only won the Juvenile Phillies twice, and that was all the way back in 2007 with Indian Blessing and
00:07:311998 with Silver Bullet Day.
00:07:34So it's been an awful long time between drinks for Bob with his two-year-old Phillies.
00:07:38I do believe that Miss Monica's a very, very talented two-year-old Philly, but I think she's going to
00:07:44be best around one turn.
00:07:46She's yet to go two turns.
00:07:48She's by the now-deceased, unfortunately, early voting, and I like her, but she's quick, and she doesn't relax.
00:07:57All her works have been super quick, and she's on the bridle.
00:08:00She will be on the lead without a question of a doubt under Flavian Pratt because I don't think he'll
00:08:06be able to keep her off the lead.
00:08:07I love the story on the two-domain expansion.
00:08:10Don't love the draw.
00:08:11She's got that big, turfy action.
00:08:13Adrian Escobedo is going to have to ride the race of his life, having never ridden once ever at Keeneland.
00:08:21This will be the first grade one he's ever ridden in as well.
00:08:23She's got a big, big chance and got some big numbers coming in.
00:08:27You have to like the favorite, emphatic.
00:08:30She's done nothing wrong, but I love what I've seen from Manuka Honey in the morning for trainer Brian Lynch.
00:08:37He won a Breeders' Cup race with Oscar Performance.
00:08:39She's undefeated.
00:08:41She's proven around two turns.
00:08:43She's a big, beautiful daughter of Upstart, and she's scoppy.
00:08:48She's going to love every inch of that trip.
00:08:50I like her at 10 to 1.
00:08:52I was very tempted.
00:08:54I tried hard to pick against Emphatic, but her race right here at Keeneland in the Alcibiades was just too
00:08:59good.
00:09:00I mean, she hooked up with Summer State.
00:09:02It may have been too good.
00:09:02And that's my primary concern about Emphatic is that she may have run her Breeders' Cup race in the Alcibiades.
00:09:09But, I mean, they were side by side.
00:09:12They were two or three lengths ahead of the field.
00:09:14And by the time they got to the top of the stretch, they were about 10 lengths ahead of the
00:09:17field.
00:09:17They were 17 lengths ahead of the field when they crossed the wire.
00:09:21Just an unbelievable race for Emphatic.
00:09:23So I'm going to take her.
00:09:24And I like the post.
00:09:25I like the draw for domain expansion.
00:09:28I just hope that Escobedo rides her the same way that he rode her in the Oakley.
00:09:33He saved ground around the first turn, saved ground around the second turn, tipped out at the top of the
00:09:37stretch.
00:09:38I thought, Bill, she was just as visually impressive, if not more so, than Miss Monica.
00:09:44And so I'll take Emphatic over domain expansion in a little exacto play there.
00:09:51All right.
00:09:51So let's move on to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Phillies turf.
00:09:55And thanks to Chad Brown, he's won this race six times.
00:10:00The U.S. horses have fared pretty well in here, having won him 13 times.
00:10:04But I think this is going to be all about the Europeans.
00:10:08Now, Sun Goddess in here is already an odds-on favorite in the early betting overseas at 8 to 11.
00:10:16You can certainly understand that.
00:10:18Trained by Aidan O'Brien, this filly is an absolute monster.
00:10:22She's won six of eight starts.
00:10:25She's won three group ones, just in great form.
00:10:29She's obviously going to be hard to beat.
00:10:31My one knock on her, and it's subtle, but if she's going to be odds-on, I'm going to take
00:10:38a chance to beat her because she's never gone beyond seven furlongs.
00:10:43And I just wonder if maybe that extra furlong going to a mile might just be something that would trip
00:10:51her up.
00:10:52Obviously, Aidan O'Brien knows what he's doing times a thousand, so he's going to have her ready.
00:10:58But what's wrong with, amusingly, the filly by No Name Never who breaks just outside of her, won a group
00:11:06one last time out in France against males, has already run at the mile distance and was second beating a
00:11:13neck in a group two over there.
00:11:16And seven to two in the morning line, you're not going to have to swallow heavy chalk on her.
00:11:22So I'm predicting that this will be, despite Chad Brown having domestic agenda in here, and you certainly have to
00:11:29respect that horse, again, because of his record in this race.
00:11:33But it's amusingly for me, Randy.
00:11:36All right, I'm not going to try to be too smart here.
00:11:38Sun Goddess, to me, is a superstar.
00:11:40We saw Coolmore bring over a similar filly a few years ago who dominated.
00:11:44I think this one might be even better.
00:11:46So Sun Goddess, to me, over amusingly.
00:11:49And then the American Horse Domestic Agenda, I'll tuck her in there for third.
00:11:55I couldn't agree with you more, Randy.
00:11:57My only question with Sun Goddess is watching, and if you're not tuning in to Fan Jewel and watching the
00:12:04Breeders' Cup Morning Work Show, you are missing out.
00:12:06Like, tune in and watch it, because you'll see way more than you're probably seeing on the ground there at
00:12:12Keeneland right now.
00:12:13It's been fantastic.
00:12:15Sun Goddess looks great out there on the racetrack, but amusingly, just looks sharp.
00:12:20Sun Goddess has already been clipped, which means that her coat's starting to turn at the end of a long
00:12:26season.
00:12:26And she's one of only a couple of horses that you'll see out there for Aiden with the trace clip
00:12:31already.
00:12:31Now, honestly, her B or C game is probably good enough to beat the rest of these on their best
00:12:38day, because she is that good.
00:12:40I'm going to take Francis Graffard, and amusingly, the filly looks slick.
00:12:46She beat the boys in a last start.
00:12:48Go back and watch the Jean-Luc Lagadier last time out.
00:12:52Now, the rider Colin Keen was just like holding an elephant from a bucket of water as they turned for
00:12:59home.
00:13:00He had so much horse, it's not even funny.
00:13:01She's lightly raised, she's only run three times, and she looks like she's got a summer coat.
00:13:06I'm just going by hair coat.
00:13:08So I'll take amusingly over Sun Goddess.
00:13:12I never look at hair, by the way.
00:13:18Zoe, that's why only you could come up with, look like he was holding an elephant from a bucket of
00:13:23water.
00:13:25That's why we love you, Zoe.
00:13:26I mean, my goodness.
00:13:28All right.
00:13:28So the marquee race of the day is always on the Friday is the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
00:13:33And Hughes is the star of the show.
00:13:38And with USS Valor out, they're deciding not to run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
00:13:44He's clearly the horse to beat.
00:13:46Again, we've got the factor of Bob Baffert going to Flavian Pratt here over J.J. Hernandez.
00:13:51He will be extremely tough to beat.
00:13:55Randy might have something to say about this as well, but that 100 buyer number in the American Pharaoh just
00:14:01jumps off the page.
00:14:02I mean, he's fast.
00:14:03I think if he runs back to that 100 buyer number, he's going to win this race.
00:14:08But I'm going to take a chance with American history.
00:14:12Now, I know his numbers don't quite stack up to Hughes.
00:14:15Gets an 85 buyer in the Breeders' Futurity.
00:14:18But I'm in love with that race.
00:14:21This horse didn't break sharply at all.
00:14:25He was back in the pack about a half mile into the race.
00:14:29You wouldn't have given him any chance whatsoever.
00:14:31He went into overdrive.
00:14:34And in the last 100 yards or so, he just swallowed Coach Pope, who was all the rage coming into
00:14:41the race.
00:14:42He comes back in this race as well and obviously is a very good horse.
00:14:46But I'm not sure who it is.
00:14:48What's Randy?
00:14:49Oh, my God, Randy.
00:14:50Why that look?
00:14:51Come on.
00:14:52What's going on?
00:14:53Well, you don't remember Randy's diatribe last week about how awful he thinks American history is?
00:14:59All right.
00:15:01All right, Randy.
00:15:02Go.
00:15:03Tell me why I'm wrong.
00:15:04It's always up.
00:15:05It's always up.
00:15:05No, no, no.
00:15:06Off to Randy.
00:15:06No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
00:15:08Yeah.
00:15:09Okay.
00:15:10Go ahead, Bill.
00:15:10Finish.
00:15:12I'm done now.
00:15:13You know, tell me why I'm wrong.
00:15:17I'd love to own American history.
00:15:19Let's get that straight.
00:15:20If someone came to me and said, would you like to own American history?
00:15:22Yes, I'm all in.
00:15:23I'm in.
00:15:23But just from a handicapping perspective, yeah, he swallowed up those horses.
00:15:27They were going like 28 and change for the last quarter of a mile.
00:15:30That's why he swallowed them up on his left lead.
00:15:33I mean, he wasn't doing a whole lot of running.
00:15:35That race just was gifted to him.
00:15:38So, I mean, I put him in there fourth in an eight-horse field.
00:15:42But, you know, to me, it's going to be either Hughes or Coach Pope,
00:15:46who I thought was a better horse than American history in the British
00:15:51fraternity.
00:15:52I mean, he didn't break all that well.
00:15:53Then he got rushed up.
00:15:54Then he got chewed up in a hot-speed duel.
00:15:56And then American history was life and death to get by him.
00:15:59So, I think it's either going to be Hughes, Coach Pope, or Salahudin
00:16:03as the winner of the juvenile, in my opinion.
00:16:05And now watch American history come down.
00:16:08Oh, he's going to glop on by everybody.
00:16:12I know.
00:16:12Zoe, should I bet him a bottle of wine and knowing that he'll probably
00:16:16never pay me if I win?
00:16:18You can bet him a case of wine.
00:16:20You're never going to get it.
00:16:21Okay.
00:16:22In fact, Randy, you could leave one there for me because I'll be there on
00:16:27Monday for the November sale.
00:16:30So, you leave it with Sue.
00:16:31Sue, don't drink it.
00:16:35Okay, Salahudin for me.
00:16:36I've loved the way he's trained in the morning.
00:16:39I hope he's just not too slow.
00:16:40He's a beautiful-looking horse who's crying out for more ground.
00:16:44There's going to be pace aplenty.
00:16:45Hughes is the horse to beat with that question.
00:16:47This race goes to Bob.
00:16:48I just think it might be the other Bob.
00:16:51The other Bob.
00:16:53About two bucks, Chuck.
00:16:55I'm not drinking that.
00:16:58All right.
00:16:59We go now to the final race, Breeders' Cup race on the Friday.
00:17:04It's the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Tariff.
00:17:06And, Randy, I'll let Zoe go first, but we're going to agree on this one
00:17:10because I know I've heard you talk about Howe's Owl today in the past.
00:17:17And, again, you would think that this is a race that would run through the Europeans.
00:17:21Matter of fact, how do you not like Aidan O'Brien?
00:17:23He's won it eight times the last four in a row, and he's got four in here.
00:17:26But how about Howe, boy, Howe's Owl today gets that 94-buyer figure winning the race at Kentucky Downs.
00:17:36And then since then, the second- and third-place finishers have both come back to win stakes races.
00:17:44Jass switched over to the dirt for Steve Asmussen and just won the street-cent stakes.
00:17:49And Agate is also a stakes winner since then.
00:17:52And Brian Hernandez, Riley Mott, Bill Mott's son, I think Aidan O'Brien is not going to win his fifth
00:18:00in a row.
00:18:01And among the reasons, Great Barrier Reef, who looks like the best of his four, drew post-14.
00:18:08So, Randy, after telling me that you don't like my pick in the Juvenile, do you like my pick in
00:18:14this one?
00:18:15I like it, Bill.
00:18:16I like your pick here.
00:18:18As I said when he won that race at Kentucky Downs, I mean, you don't – to me, that race
00:18:25is the best race that I've seen in at least –
00:18:28probably the last 10 years by an American two-year-old male turf horse.
00:18:34Turf horse, let me specify that.
00:18:36Because normally I'm all over the Europeans in a race like this.
00:18:39But he was so visually impressive to me winning that race at Kentucky Downs.
00:18:43And then the speed figure comes into play.
00:18:45But, yeah, Zoe Howe's out today for me.
00:18:49Wow.
00:18:50Good for you guys.
00:18:51I like him.
00:18:52I just wonder if he's just really, really good at Kentucky Downs.
00:18:55And he is really, really good.
00:18:58His race is at – I mean, okay, maybe it's the turf as well because it's the only place he's
00:19:03ever run on the grass is Kentucky Downs.
00:19:06So the jury's out on how he's going to handle anything.
00:19:09He's really, really good for Gold Square.
00:19:11Where you've got to respect him.
00:19:14As far as Aidan O'Brien and the Great Barrier Reef, drawn on the far outside, starred one from that
00:19:22post last year.
00:19:2314 at Delmar, which is even harder under Ryan Moore.
00:19:26What are the stats for this race?
00:19:28There's some ridiculous stats.
00:19:29He hit in a bomb one from post 14 for Aidan O'Brien.
00:19:32Exactly.
00:19:33Ryan Moore's won this race seven times.
00:19:36Aidan's looking for his fifth in the row.
00:19:3712 of the last 15 runnings have gone to the Euros.
00:19:40They hold the keys to this race.
00:19:44But I don't really love the horse on the far outside.
00:19:47Great Barrier Reef.
00:19:48You know he's got a brother that just got claimed for 20,000 that Alstall has?
00:19:53Basically, he's only got three other winning siblings.
00:19:56He's a very good horse.
00:19:57I'm not sure Ryan's on the right horse.
00:19:59I like Hafner in here for Aidan.
00:20:04By Justify, gets a good draw.
00:20:05You're getting Sumian.
00:20:07Comes out of the Royal Lodge stakes, proven on just about any ground.
00:20:10In fact, his worst race was over yielding ground.
00:20:13And as hot as it's been at Keeneland, hopefully that deeper soft turf has started to dry up a little
00:20:19bit.
00:20:20So I believe the ground's going to be good.
00:20:22I like Hafner in there.
00:20:24All right.
00:20:24Those are our opinions on the Friday Future Stars card.
00:20:27We're going to take a break.
00:20:28We're going to see what's going on at Keeneland.
00:20:30And Randy's going to tell us who the fastest horse of the week was.
00:20:34When we come back, we'll turn our attention to the Saturday Breeders' Cup card.
00:20:38Stay with us here on the TDN Writers' Room podcast presented by Keeneland.
00:20:42The TDN Writers' Room is brought to you by Keeneland, which is about to have the biggest two weeks of
00:20:47the year.
00:20:48Listen to this.
00:20:49Wednesday night is the championship sale at the historic Castleton Farm, featuring shares in 10 Breeders' Cup connections for auction.
00:20:57On Friday and Saturday, of course, Keeneland hosts the Breeders' Cup World Championships.
00:21:02Sunday is the nomination deadline for the January sale.
00:21:06Tuesday begins the nine-day Keeneland November sale, followed by the November Horses of Racing Age sale of November the
00:21:1312th.
00:21:14I'm just getting tired reading this, but I'm sure going to enjoy it.
00:21:17We'll be right back after this message from Keeneland.
00:21:21We do this so your granddaughter can work on a farm someday.
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00:21:30That's why we come to work every day.
00:21:33Obsess over every single detail.
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00:21:56get my compass out, I think it's someplace right over there somewhere.
00:22:00Where they stand?
00:22:01Life is good.
00:22:02And life keeps getting better for Life is Good, who now has two Breeders' Cup contenders from his first crop,
00:22:08both in the juvenile fillies, Scarlet Begonia, and life-changing from that first crop.
00:22:14Life is good has a grade one winner at Saratoga, five, count them, TD and rising stars, 12.07%
00:22:21black-type horses to starters, and 6.9% graded stakes horses to starters.
00:22:27And with 571 mares bred over his next three crops, the pipeline is loaded.
00:22:34Life is good.
00:22:35We'll stand at Windstar Farm in 2027 for a fee of $125,000.
00:22:41Fastest Horse of the Week race came right here on Saturday.
00:22:45The Fayette Stakes was won narrowly by Willie Dees with the buyer's speed figure of 101.
00:22:53As all the Breeders' Cup horses were preparing for their big days on Friday and Saturday, it was Willie Dees
00:22:59that stole the show last weekend as our Fastest Horse of the Week.
00:23:06Well, Saturday card will kick off with the Breeders' Cup Philly and Mayer sprint.
00:23:10Ways and means, 7 to 5 in the morning line for the combination of Chad Brown and Flavian Pratt.
00:23:18Obviously, the horse to beat, and she is very, very good.
00:23:22But I'm going to take a little bit of a contrarian view, and I'm going to go with my main
00:23:27man, Safi Joseph, with our disaster in here.
00:23:31Now, a couple reasons why.
00:23:33She's been a little bit erratic, but she did beat Ways and Means and beat her fairly easily in the
00:23:39Derby City Distaff back on Kentucky Derby weekend at Churchill Downs.
00:23:44So, she has the credentials to win this and to do her very best in here.
00:23:50The other part of the equation is, how is this race going to set up?
00:23:55I am a little bit worried about the pace in here.
00:23:58There's a lot of speed in this race.
00:24:00Carrie's Kiss has freed.
00:24:01Explorer from the 11 post for Baffert and Jose Ortiz will probably show some speed.
00:24:06So, I'm taking a chance on a horse that might not get a great trip.
00:24:10Obviously, Ways and Means is the horse to beat, but you can't go wrong with Safi Joseph, especially when they're
00:24:16going to give you Safi at, oh, 6-7 to 1, Zoe.
00:24:21I love Ways and Means.
00:24:22I think Chad's going to win his fourth race.
00:24:25Fourth Philly and Mare sprint with Ways and Means.
00:24:28She's now five years old.
00:24:30She's been lightly campaigned this year.
00:24:32Her last race was terrific.
00:24:33You're keeping Pratt.
00:24:34She gets a good draw on the inside, and she doesn't need the lead, which is going to be key
00:24:39because Explorer's going to be on the lead.
00:24:42I think Explorer's going to run a very gallant race.
00:24:45I just think Ways and Means, she's five years old.
00:24:48This Philly's just three.
00:24:50It's going to be a little bit better than her.
00:24:51Watch out for Bob's other Philly drawn on the far outside in post position 13, Noonie.
00:24:57She might be a sleeper in there with Mario Gutierrez aboard.
00:25:04Look, if you rated all these horses with their percentage chances to win, Ways and Means would definitely be on
00:25:12top.
00:25:12I mean, there's just no doubt about it.
00:25:14The race sets up for her.
00:25:16She gets the numbers.
00:25:18The only thing that gives me cause for pause at 7 to 5, and I think she'll even be shorter
00:25:24than that, honestly, is the fact that she's won all of her races in New York, and she's 0 for
00:25:295 when she's shipped out of town.
00:25:31Now, there have been some excuses, some legitimate excuses for some of those races, but at Churchill Lounds, our disaster
00:25:38beat her on the square.
00:25:39Just beat her.
00:25:40No excuses for Ways and Means, other than not being at Saratoga or Belmont Park or Aqueduct.
00:25:47So, at 7 to 5, I've got to try to take a shot against her.
00:25:50Then the question becomes, you know, who are you going to take a shot with?
00:25:53There is a ton of early speed in here, right?
00:25:57So, I'm going to go with something that nobody else is going to do.
00:26:0120 to 1 in the program.
00:26:03Toie Gras.
00:26:05Trained by Mike Maker.
00:26:07Scheduled to be ridden by Ricardo Santana Jr.
00:26:09We'll see if that actually comes to pass.
00:26:12But Foie Gras' last race was at Charlestown.
00:26:15It was against weaker competition, but not that weak.
00:26:18She completely dominated.
00:26:20I think the fig might be even a little bit more impressive than she got credit for.
00:26:24The runner-up in that race, Icona Mama, came back to win.
00:26:28And, most importantly, she has the right running style for this particular race.
00:26:33It's going to set up for a closer, and she will be a closer.
00:26:36And at 20 to 1, I think she's worth the play.
00:26:40Interesting, interesting pick.
00:26:41I always love to get some long shots.
00:26:43So, a couple of us, two out of the three of us think Ways and Means might be a little
00:26:47bit vulnerable.
00:26:48All right.
00:26:48We turn now to the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint.
00:26:51And this is the one turf race among the Breeders' Cup races where you can really count on the American
00:26:58horses.
00:26:58They've won 16 of the 18 runnings.
00:27:01By the way, we learned from a very clever post on X, we all, and Wesley Ward included, screwed up
00:27:10the name of the Morning Line favorite.
00:27:12It's not Batcho.
00:27:14It's Batcho.
00:27:15Like, rhymes with macho.
00:27:17Macho.
00:27:18Batcho.
00:27:19So, we apologize for making that mistake last week.
00:27:24So, even though Batcho.
00:27:30That's the Batcho song.
00:27:32That's the Batcho song that Zoe's playing there.
00:27:35All right.
00:27:36Now, does Batcho count as a European or U.S. horse?
00:27:40You'd have to say officially a U.S. horse because trained by Wesley Ward.
00:27:43But, nonetheless, the horse has really made a name for himself over in Europe.
00:27:49Comanche Brave comes in, and Billy Loughman will ride this one.
00:27:53Obviously, this horse is going to be very tough off two straight grade one races.
00:27:57Randy, you went long shot hunting in the last race we talked about.
00:28:00I will, too, here with Joe Shiesty.
00:28:03This is a horse that, on the numbers, the buyer numbers, really does fit in there.
00:28:07It's run one, two, three, four straight triple-digit buyers.
00:28:12I do like the angle of sticking with the U.S. horses in here.
00:28:17Again, I'm picking a horse that might not get the best trip because there is a lot of speed in
00:28:23here,
00:28:23and Fernando de la Cruz is going to have to find a way to work out a good trip.
00:28:30But I do think, based on past history, that you have to go with the U.S. base horses in
00:28:38here.
00:28:39And if they're going to give me one at 10-12 to 1, I'm going to take it.
00:28:43I totally forget whose turn it is, so I'll go to Randy.
00:28:46How about that?
00:28:48So, I picked some U.S. horses on the turf already, but not in this spot.
00:28:54Look at the way this race is setting up.
00:28:57You've got John the Beer Man from post one with a ton of speed.
00:29:00They've got to send from that post.
00:29:01She's so spicy, number two.
00:29:03Went wire-to-wire last year in this race.
00:29:05You have Bacho, who's nothing but speed.
00:29:07You have Rohai in the four-hole.
00:29:09She has a tremendous amount of early speed.
00:29:11In Our Time has a ton of speed.
00:29:13You've got Joe Scheiste, nothing but speed.
00:29:15On the far outside, Missy Chance from Europe, speed.
00:29:18This pace is going to be completely out of control, and Bacho is going to be right in the middle
00:29:23of it.
00:29:24So, I'll take Comanche Brave, the European who's been one of the top sprinters over there.
00:29:29He can stalk very effectively, and I think the race is going to come apart and fall on his lap,
00:29:34even at five and a half furlongs.
00:29:37I think you're right.
00:29:38I'm not sure that anyone will be with Bacho earlier.
00:29:43He's so fast.
00:29:43Oh, my goodness.
00:29:44Did you see his work over the turf course?
00:29:47He worked in 49 on the outside fence, and he's just fast, even over the softed course.
00:29:54He's so fast, but he's never gone beyond five furlongs, and this is going to ride like a six furlong
00:29:59race.
00:30:00So, I love Bacho in here, but I'm going to have to pick against him.
00:30:05I do like Comanche Brave in here for Donica O'Brien, Billy Lachlan, to ride this horse for everything,
00:30:11every reason that you stated.
00:30:14I got some trivia for you about Joe Shiesty.
00:30:17Okay.
00:30:17Joe Shiesty debuted on November the 12th, 2023.
00:30:2323, okay.
00:30:25Who beat him that day?
00:30:27Oh, I mean, I've got my wife's son.
00:30:29Which Kentucky Derby winner?
00:30:32Let's just look at the VBs.
00:30:34Which Kentucky Derby winner beat him in his debut?
00:30:36Well, it would have to be Mystic Nan, then.
00:30:39Yeah.
00:30:40How about that?
00:30:41Just because you said 23, and he debuted, so he's probably a two-year-old.
00:30:46Yeah.
00:30:47So, there you go.
00:30:49And good luck to Eric Foster.
00:30:51Honestly, he's a really good guy.
00:30:52Wishing him the best of luck with Joe Shiesty.
00:30:55All right, we turn now to the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, and with the news earlier this week
00:31:00that Knightsbridge is going to go in the Classic, that completely changed this race around instead
00:31:05of having a one-to-five favorite in here.
00:31:08I'm a much more wide-open race, and I'm going to go back to the chalk.
00:31:11You know, first of all, wouldn't it be cool if Chunk of Gold won this race?
00:31:14I mean, I love this horse, the $2,500 yearling buy, and he is going to get out front, and
00:31:21I think he's going to get a pretty comfortable lead, but he's gotten that kind of trip in
00:31:24his last three races as well and just hasn't been good enough.
00:31:29Further ado, winds up in this race, and I would guess, and Randy, you might know more about this,
00:31:37that the decision was based largely on the Knightsbridge zigging and zagging over to the Classic,
00:31:42where this race now becomes much easier.
00:31:46Normally, I don't believe that much in horses-for-courses type thing,
00:31:50but how can you ignore the fact that he's run twice at Keeneland and won by a combined 31 lengths,
00:31:59including the Bluegrass?
00:32:00Now, you know, and he's proved in the Pennsylvania Derby he's not just a Keeneland horse.
00:32:06He ran a really nice race in there in a mile and eighth, running second behind the Puma.
00:32:10He won the mat win at Churchill Downs back in June.
00:32:14I think he's just clearly the class of the race.
00:32:17We'll be facing older horses for the first time.
00:32:19That doesn't really bother me.
00:32:22Once again, Flavian Pratt is aboard.
00:32:24Irad Ortiz, originally, I believe, was supposed to ride the horse, but of course, he got injured.
00:32:30So I think this horse, Zoe, is pretty obvious.
00:32:33That's my pick.
00:32:35He's definitely the horse to beat, and he doesn't need to be on the lead,
00:32:38which is going to be key here because there is an awful lot of speed in here.
00:32:43I'm not sure if Chunk of Gold will be involved in that or not.
00:32:47I'm not sure he's quite that quick enough.
00:32:50It'd be really cool to see Cole Battle win this.
00:32:53If I'm rooting for anyone, it will be Lonnie Briley.
00:32:56But I do like Further Ado, and I'm actually going to back him up with the horse right to his
00:33:01outside
00:33:01in T-Craft for Billy Mott, who's going to be the forgotten Billy Mott horse this Breeders' Cup weekend.
00:33:08Right.
00:33:10Further Ado is clearly the horse to beat, but this is going to be a really sharply run one-mile
00:33:16race,
00:33:17and Further Ado has been relaxing off the pace.
00:33:20Like in his last start in the Pennsylvania Derby, he was the better horse in there.
00:33:23As far as, you know, I mean, he did have to wait while the Puma was making his huge move
00:33:29on the outside.
00:33:29It's hard to say who the best horse was, but Further Ado did have a little bit of a holdup
00:33:34in that race.
00:33:35So he is the horse to beat. He'll save some ground with Flavian Pratt.
00:33:38But look, I'm going to try to beat him with a 10-to-1 shot in here, surprisingly 10-to
00:33:43-1, Full Serrano.
00:33:45He won this race a couple of years ago.
00:33:47In his last race, he goes head-in-head with Knight's Bridge all the way around the track at a
00:33:53mile and a quarter.
00:33:54That's not Full Serrano's game.
00:33:55Even though he's stretched out pretty well, he's been able to carry his speed a little bit in the past.
00:34:00His best distance is at a mile.
00:34:02A two-turn mile is perfect for Full Serrano.
00:34:04And he's had some excuses in his PPs.
00:34:06The Oakland Mile, he went to his nose at the start and was way behind the field.
00:34:10They tried to run him a mile and an eighth in the Pegasus, and he held on for third.
00:34:14But he doesn't want to go that far, really.
00:34:15Goodwood, same thing.
00:34:17Look, I mean, at a mile, he'll either be on the lead or he'll be breathing right down the neck
00:34:22of whoever is on the lead.
00:34:23He'll be going 45 and change, 109 and change.
00:34:27And I think he's pretty tough in that scenario.
00:34:29And I think he can hold on.
00:34:32At 10-to-1, I'm willing to take that risk.
00:34:34Yeah.
00:34:36All right.
00:34:37So that wraps up the first three races on Breeders' Cup Saturday.
00:34:40We're going to take a break.
00:34:41We're going to hear from our friends at the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association.
00:34:44And Zoe Cadman and Michelle Yu will tell you what's going on at Santa Anita in our First Things First
00:34:50segment.
00:34:51Stay with us.
00:34:53As always, the TD and Riders' Room also brought to you by our good friends at the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders'
00:34:58Association, the PHBA.
00:35:00And this is a big weekend for Pennsylvania breeding because two PA breads will be competing in the Breeders' Cup.
00:35:07First of all, on Saturday in the Philly and Mare Sprint, Simply Joking, bred by Barlar and the winner of
00:35:13the Grade 3 Santa Maria Steaks this spring is going to run in that seven furlong stakes.
00:35:19One by fellow Pennsylvania breads in the past, Finest City and Shamrock Rose that will be on Saturday.
00:35:26Then on Friday, Pennsylvania bread is favored in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Phillies, $2 million.
00:35:32Emphatic, bred by John Marshall and the winner of the Darley Alcibides that will be on Future Stars Friday.
00:35:40To learn more about breeding your own future Pennsylvania bread, Breeders' Cup starter, contact Brian Sanfratello, 610-444-1050 or
00:35:49visit pabred.com.
00:35:52The Pennsylvania breeding program is the best program in the country.
00:35:56The stallion awards, the owner bonuses, also the restrictive races and the stakes races for Pennsylvania breads.
00:36:04Last year, 321 Pennsylvania breeders earned Breeders' Awards.
00:36:0922 Pennsylvania breeders earned over $100,000.
00:36:13We have the best program in the country.
00:36:17Take advantage of the fantastic program that we have.
00:36:20Learn more at pabred.com.
00:36:23On this week's edition of First Things First, our own Michelle Yu caught up with Katie Davis, who picked up
00:36:28her very first Graded Stakes win.
00:36:36Okay, we're out of breath right now because Katie Davis and I just ran from the jockstroom to try to
00:36:39get this interview squeezed in.
00:36:41You're on People Watching today.
00:36:42How's your day been at California People Watching?
00:36:44Oh, amazing.
00:36:45It has been.
00:36:45Actually, I was walking around earlier today.
00:36:47So, I mean, a little bit of a full circle.
00:36:50Last time I was here, I was pregnant.
00:36:51So, it's pretty nice to get out here and actually ride a race.
00:36:55And last time there's some jealousy when you got to see your husband riding and you're like, I want to
00:36:58be out here.
00:36:58Yeah, I was like, there's nothing wrong with me.
00:37:00Yes, I'm growing a baby in me.
00:37:02But, you know, it was good.
00:37:03It was a great experience both times.
00:37:06Now you're going to be out here for our Perfect Weather.
00:37:07You're riding People Watching in this spot.
00:37:09Ridden them in the last two or her in the last two outs.
00:37:12You think the turn back and distance is going to be okay for her?
00:37:14Yeah, I agree.
00:37:15I mean, I worked her back at Belmont.
00:37:17She worked very well on the Tapita.
00:37:20Listen, we're here and you got to be in it to win it.
00:37:23So, we're taking a shot.
00:37:25I love it, Dana.
00:37:26We'll have to wave to all the cosplayers on the outside here.
00:37:28We have done plenty of people watching today.
00:37:30Welcome to the SoCal Jockey Colony now.
00:37:32Thank you for having me.
00:37:38Katie Davis, always a fan favorite.
00:37:41I'm delighted to see her getting on the beam at Santa Anita for trainer Tom Proctor.
00:37:46Okay, let's talk about what's going on this weekend at Santa Anita.
00:37:50Friday, gates will open at 8.15 to facilitate Breeders' Cup betting.
00:37:56First post for the first Breeders' Cup race will be 8.55 Pacific time.
00:38:01We do have a nine-race card on tap on Friday.
00:38:04And then on Saturday, 12.30, first post at Santa Anita, we will have the Pumpkin Fall Fun Festival
00:38:10and the Smorgasbord Thai Food Festival as well.
00:38:14A reminder that gates will open for Breeders' Cup wagering and watching at 7.45 Pacific time
00:38:21at Santa Anita, the first Breeders' Cup race at 8.15 Pacific time.
00:38:27And then Sunday, of course, closing day for the Santa Anita autumn meet.
00:38:32Do come and watch and wager the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita this weekend.
00:38:37Well, the racing on Saturday continues with the Breeders' Cup Philly and Mayer Turf.
00:38:42And there's a very nice horse in here by the name of Blue Bolt, who will no doubt be the
00:38:48favorite.
00:38:48Has just been a machine this year.
00:38:51Six for six.
00:38:52Is nine to four right now in the wagering over in the UK.
00:38:58But, and I think this is an important but, Zoe Cabin, I'll go to you first with this.
00:39:04This horse is a miler.
00:39:06This race is not a mile.
00:39:08It's a mile and three sixteenths.
00:39:10Now, I know that European horses tend to have more stamina.
00:39:14Usually, they can stretch out.
00:39:15But I don't want to favor it going in a race where she's completely unproven.
00:39:21You have no idea if she can go the distance in here.
00:39:24Having said that, I thought this race was really, really wide open.
00:39:28I just threw a dart.
00:39:30But I've become a give me another fan.
00:39:33We had Graham Motion on after she won the EP Taylor.
00:39:36And, you know, she's not blowing anybody out, at least in her last two races.
00:39:40But she's turned a corner since she first got over here from South Africa.
00:39:44And Graham talked about that when we had him on the podcast.
00:39:47She's just really good right now.
00:39:50And I know she's going to run her race.
00:39:52I don't know if she's good enough to win, but I can count on her.
00:39:57Graham Motion, Johnny Velasquez, 10 to 1 in the morning line.
00:40:00And I do have some doubts about Blue Boat, Zoe.
00:40:04Oh, I don't.
00:40:05I don't.
00:40:06I mean, they opted to go here rather than face the boys in the mile.
00:40:10She gets a wide draw.
00:40:11That's fine.
00:40:12She's got just enough pace to get up, get over, get some cover, which is going to help her get
00:40:17the distance.
00:40:17She races kind of a little bit closer in Europe, but there's enough speed in here where she won't have
00:40:23to.
00:40:24She's just so good.
00:40:25I mean, the best filly is drawn to her inside, and that is Precise, who's in here, who she's firmly
00:40:32trounced three times already.
00:40:35And just look, she won by two and three quarters, two and three quarters, half a length, two lengths, a
00:40:40length and a quarter.
00:40:40We're not talking about winning by a nose.
00:40:43We're talking about a filly who has firmly trounced all the competition and all comers.
00:40:48It's just such a privilege that Andrew Boulding has opted to bring her over stateside when he could have just
00:40:55wrapped her up and be done with her.
00:40:57I love that he's brought her over there.
00:40:59He's tied up in the trainer's race right now in Europe with Aidan O'Brien.
00:41:03He's trying to beat him.
00:41:04I think Aidan O'Brien's 200,000 ahead of him.
00:41:07And if I was at Keeneland, she would be the one that I would seek out in the morning to
00:41:12go and see what she looks like, because I think she's outstanding.
00:41:16I think she's going to be one of the stars of the day on Saturday.
00:41:19Absolutely.
00:41:19It's not as if she's tried a mile and three sixteenths or a mile and an eighth or a mile
00:41:24and a quarter and been found wanting.
00:41:27She's been running a mile because she's been winning, and they run all kinds of one-mile races in Europe.
00:41:31There's plenty of spots to run her.
00:41:32I mean, she's won nine of 11 at a mile, so there really has been no reason to really try
00:41:38to stretch her out until now.
00:41:40And a mile and three sixteenths, I think, is within her wheelhouse, especially when you consider that some of those
00:41:45one-mile races, you know, the courses in Europe can have an uphill finish.
00:41:49It can be much more demanding than a normal American race course.
00:41:52This is what they would call an easy mile and three sixteenths with turns and, you know, flat.
00:42:00So, look, I think she's a really solid horse, and I like Precise in second.
00:42:06For the others behind her, I think Lush Lips could run a really big race.
00:42:12The more I watch her last start, I agree with Zoe.
00:42:14Zoe, she threw her ears up when she made the lead and just absolutely said, all right, I'm done.
00:42:20This is what I was supposed to do.
00:42:21I've done it.
00:42:22It's over.
00:42:22And then she gets beat at the wire, and give me another.
00:42:25I think she'll get a good trip from the rail.
00:42:27So I would put those two in there and the exotics behind.
00:42:32All right, let's turn our attention now to the Breeders' Cup Sprint.
00:42:35And one of the stars on Saturday is Englishman, trained by Cherie DeVoe, four to five in the morning line
00:42:43for Jose Ortiz.
00:42:46Oh, my God, this horse is good.
00:42:48I'm not going to try to beat this horse.
00:42:50T.O. Elvis is interesting.
00:42:52I think that's the only horse you could possibly look at to have any chance to beat Englishman.
00:42:57But, Randy, I mean, to me, and I think, you know, most people agree, we're seeing one of the most
00:43:05brilliant, fastest horses, at least, you know, at the under one mile distance that we've seen in a long, long
00:43:14time.
00:43:15I mean, these buyer numbers, the 117 and the 115, don't lie.
00:43:19This horse is just very, very fast and very, very good.
00:43:22I actually think the 13 post will work out just fine.
00:43:25I know it'll give Jose Ortiz a chance to just suss out what's going on in front of him.
00:43:29And you said that Blue Bolt will be one of the big stars of the day.
00:43:34Well, my vote for one of the big stars of the day would be Englishman.
00:43:38I see absolutely no reason to try to beat him.
00:43:42He's a tremendously, tremendously talented horse.
00:43:44But I will say this.
00:43:45This is going to be by far the toughest test of his career because he's been speed.
00:43:51All of his races have been speed.
00:43:53He has set, I think, half length off the pace before or whatever in one.
00:43:58It doesn't mean he's not capable of rating if the situation calls for it.
00:44:03It doesn't mean he has to have the early lead.
00:44:05But it's all we've seen from him so far.
00:44:07It's what he's accustomed to.
00:44:09He's never been put in the position where he has to sit fourth or sit fifth
00:44:14and be a couple of lengths behind horses and be patient and be okay with it.
00:44:18In this spot, he's got some really fast horses drawn to his inside.
00:44:22He's got Madhouse from the rail.
00:44:24So Paco is going to have to descend Madhouse, who has a lot of speed.
00:44:29Dark Saffron has a lot of speed.
00:44:30Liam Smith has a lot of speed.
00:44:32Listen Up Chance has a lot of speed.
00:44:34So it's going to be a very interesting dilemma for a rider here.
00:44:40I mean, do you try to ease back to avoid being caught four and five wide around the turn?
00:44:46Is he just so fast that he'll just blow those horses away at the half mile pole and open up?
00:44:53You know, I don't know what's going to happen.
00:44:55He's going to be a four to five favorite.
00:44:56I don't know that it's worth four to five given some of those question marks, but I'm just going to
00:45:03watch and I'll pick him and I'm going to enjoy watching a horse.
00:45:07I hope he wins.
00:45:08That's uncommonly talented, but it's not going to be a cakewalk.
00:45:13I don't think.
00:45:14I hope he wins.
00:45:16And he is by far the best race and best horse in the race.
00:45:20Cherie DeVoe's got to be absolutely thrilled that he drew 13 of 13.
00:45:25If I'm being perfectly honest, because with all that speed drawn to your inside, this horse has just been on
00:45:32the lead because he's quickest.
00:45:33Now, we're talking about quick.
00:45:35He went 23 flat last time.
00:45:37Right.
00:45:38They're not going 23.
00:45:39You've got Liam Smith in there who went 20 and four.
00:45:43This horse has never been 20 and four in his life.
00:45:47So he's not going to be on the lead.
00:45:49Those guys are going to go.
00:45:50But your Jose is going to ride him like the best horse.
00:45:53He might be four wide.
00:45:55Five wide.
00:45:56But so be it.
00:45:57He's never had dirt in his face.
00:45:59He's just going to be parked out there and let them go.
00:46:02Liam Smith's an extremely fast horse.
00:46:05And then you've got Listen Up Chance, who Jaramillo is actually riding.
00:46:08Jaramillo takes no prisoners.
00:46:10He's going.
00:46:11But he's been riding Liam Smith, who now draws Manny Franco.
00:46:15And Liam Smith is the fastest for a quarter of a mile in this race, without a shadow of a
00:46:20doubt, if he gets off to a good start.
00:46:22So Englishman will be part wide and he won't be on the lead, at least for the first quarter of
00:46:27a mile.
00:46:28But he's probably going to be on the lead at the end.
00:46:32All right.
00:46:32Let's move now to the Breeders' Cup mile.
00:46:35And again, I don't have much to add or any handicapping insights that don't just jump off the page about
00:46:43notable speech.
00:46:44Charlie Appleby has won this race for the last five years, including, of course, with notable speech last time out.
00:46:50And if you weren't a fan of this horse before, you really had to be a fan of him after
00:46:56the Woodbine mile.
00:46:57He ran against the best miler in the U.S., turf miler in the U.S., in Deterministic.
00:47:01Deterministic got out front, set a fairly comfortable pace, 47 and 4 to the half up at Woodbine.
00:47:08And notable speech just blew by him like he was just, you know, proverbial tied to the eighth ball.
00:47:16Well, this horse is a just a tremendous horse.
00:47:20And again, I'm stating the obvious here, as I did with Englishmen, but I'm not going to be a wise
00:47:28guy here, Randy, and try to beat notable speech.
00:47:31Not at all.
00:47:32I like notable speech in here.
00:47:33You know, he has been beaten at Keeneland, but he got a horrible trip that day.
00:47:36He got stuck inside.
00:47:38And that was when Zulu Kingdom beat him in the Maker's Mark mile.
00:47:42So he's not undefeated at Keeneland, but Charlie Appleby, 32 starts in Breeders' Cup races, 12 wins, 4 seconds, 5
00:47:50thirds, 37.5% win percentage.
00:47:54He's won the mile four times in the last five years.
00:47:58He's without question the horse to be in here.
00:48:00I'm going to use him with Lake Forest for Kieran Fallon and Willie Haggis.
00:48:04Didn't get the best of trips last time out in the turf mile at Keeneland.
00:48:08He's proven over the course, and he could be a sneaky long shot to use in there as well.
00:48:14Yeah.
00:48:14I think the two best horses in the race are notable speech and deterministic.
00:48:17And they hooked up against each other at Woodbine over a course that probably favored notable speech more than it
00:48:23favored deterministic.
00:48:24We talked about that in the aftermath of the Woodbine mile.
00:48:27Notable speech beat him pretty handily.
00:48:29I think deterministic will put up a little bit more of a fight this time.
00:48:33But I still like notable speech over deterministic and Lake Forest after that.
00:48:39All right.
00:48:39So that wraps up the next three races on the Breeders' Cup Saturday card.
00:48:44Three to go.
00:48:45Before we come back, we're going to hear from Gainesway and also going to find out the latest.
00:48:49What's going on over in Australia, where the Melbourne Cup is right around the corner.
00:48:55Stay with us here on the Raiders Room podcast, the TDN Raiders Room podcast presented by Keeneland.
00:49:01And we'll be right back.
00:49:03TDN Raiders Room also brought to you by Gainesway, where Drain the Clock has already had nine winners and three
00:49:09black type horses from his first crop.
00:49:12And now Drain the Clock has had his first black type winner.
00:49:15That came in the Oklahoma Classics Juvenile October 16th.
00:49:19Horses name, Drain the Shot.
00:49:22There's a basketball term for you.
00:49:23Of course, Drain the Clock was a lightning fast grade one winning sprinter.
00:49:27Three days after that, Oklahoma Classics, by the way, his daughter Crystal Sands won a five furlong maiden special weight
00:49:34in her second lifetime start to complete a big weekend for her sire.
00:49:39Drain the Clock will stand for $10,000 next year at Gainesway.
00:49:45Power, passion, performance.
00:49:59Drain the Clock, Gainesway, Drain the Clock by a head.
00:50:05One million, one million, one million, one million, 100,000.
00:50:0975, 700, Mike, 700,000.
00:50:1270, 70, 70, 70, 70, 570,000.
00:50:18Welcome back to Flemmington and we can't wait to get into the action.
00:50:22Flemmington putting on a real show today.
00:50:24They're enjoying every corner of the race course.
00:50:26You can feel the excitement, the tension in the air.
00:50:29This is it.
00:50:29This is the big show.
00:50:30Trainers, jockeys, connections, participants that come through these gates.
00:50:35This is what it's all about.
00:50:35It's grand final time and I'm absolutely buzzing.
00:50:38For JB Carr for the Cups double.
00:50:40Half yours, the history maker won the Lexus Melbourne Cup.
00:50:45This one's the Melbourne Cup.
00:50:48The Melbourne Cup Carnival begins this Friday night of Flemington Racecourse and sits perfectly
00:50:54between day one and day two of the Breeders' Cup in Lexington.
00:50:59Friday night is night one of the Melbourne Cup Carnival and it's an all stakes racing card
00:51:05with 10 races.
00:51:06It's headlined by the time-honoured Grade 1 Victorian Derby for new season three-year-olds and the stallion-making
00:51:13Grade 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes over six furlongs.
00:51:17Don't forget Monday night is Melbourne Cup, Australia's most famous horse race run over two miles.
00:51:23I actually have some friends that are shipping out on Wednesday to head to the Melbourne Cup.
00:51:28So they're super excited for the race that stops the nation.
00:51:32Kieran Mayer, by the way, if you did not know, Kieran Mayer even is the informed trainer and he has
00:51:38the next episode who is the favourite for the Coolmore Stud Stakes and Point of Law, the favourite for the
00:51:45Melbourne Cup.
00:51:46I'll have to tell my mates about that.
00:51:48Friday night is a huge night of racing at Randwick with the running of the $10 million Golden Eagle over
00:51:561,500 meetings.
00:51:571,500 metres even.
00:51:59You can watch all this live on SkyRacingWorld.com and the Australian simulcast feed on your favourite ADW platform.
00:52:08All right, we're in the homestretch now.
00:52:10The Breeders' Cup Distaff and Randy Moss, of course, will be covering these races on NBC and working his tail
00:52:19off all week to get all the insights on horses in all these races with Jerry Bailey and the whole
00:52:25NBC team.
00:52:26And we will look forward to his coverage there.
00:52:29The Breeders' Cup Distaff, the story is Nitrogen.
00:52:32She is the 6 to 5 morning line favourite, fully subscribed at 8 to 5.
00:52:37And I've got to tell you guys, I went back and forth and changed my mind five times.
00:52:42Nitrogen, fully subscribed.
00:52:44Nitrogen, fully subscribed.
00:52:45Now, the factor to me that I couldn't get over is that Nitrogen whipped the living daylights out of her
00:52:54in the Ogden Phipps, winning by 12 and three-quarter lengths.
00:52:57Having said that, I think fully subscribed is a better horse now than she was in that race.
00:53:04And I almost picked her because, again, you're going to get a little bit better price on her.
00:53:09And I think, Randy, I'll go to you because I think you brought up something that's very interesting about Nitrogen
00:53:14before, so I want to get your opinion on this.
00:53:17She looked on the corner when Mark Cassie decided to put her on the lead.
00:53:23Last three races, starting with the Ogden Phipps, that's when she, you know, put two straight losses behind her.
00:53:30She's not going to get that kind of trip here.
00:53:34Splendora has speed.
00:53:35There's plenty of speed in here.
00:53:38Supercorridora has speed.
00:53:39I'm not sure that she's even going to get the lead.
00:53:42Immersive from the rail will probably go for Junior Alvarado and Brad Cox.
00:53:47But, again, like I said, I changed my mind five times.
00:53:50I'll probably change it five more times before the race.
00:53:52But until fully subscribed can prove that she can beat Nitrogen, I'll stick with Nitrogen.
00:53:58Randy, did I get that right?
00:54:01Is the pace factor here for Nitrogen and the way this race sets up in your mind a big factor?
00:54:07That's exactly why I like a fully subscribed Splendora Xacta with Nitrogen in third.
00:54:14Earlier this year at Oakland Park, Nitrogen was disappointing in a few of those races.
00:54:20And as you pointed out, she was stalking in all of those races.
00:54:23It was when they started putting her on the lead that she really became the Nitrogen that was breaking watches
00:54:29in the afternoon.
00:54:30And so she's not going to be in that position, I don't think, in the Breeders' Cup.
00:54:34So I think she's very vulnerable.
00:54:36And I'm not going to wait to see if fully subscribed can beat her.
00:54:39Because if I wait to see if fully subscribed can beat her, then fully subscribed will be six to five
00:54:43and not Nitrogen.
00:54:44So I'm going to take fully subscribed right now while there's a little bit of a premium on her price
00:54:49because Nitrogen beat her so badly earlier in the year.
00:54:54Ditto.
00:54:55I will take fully subscribed, being able to sit off the pace.
00:54:58I mean, there's so much pace in here, it's not even funny.
00:55:01Super Corridora will be on the lead for sure.
00:55:03She's quick.
00:55:04She has one way to go.
00:55:05And she's quicker than the rest of these.
00:55:07West Coast speed versus East Coast speed.
00:55:09Every single time, Joelle Rosario holds no prisoners.
00:55:13So she'll be on the lead and fully subscribed will be somewhere in a catbird seat having a nice comfy
00:55:19trip under Pratt.
00:55:21All right.
00:55:22The Breeders' Cup turf is the penultimate race on the card.
00:55:26And this is one where you almost have to go with a European horse.
00:55:31They've won nine of the last ten.
00:55:33And the only one based out of the U.S. to win was Bricks and Mortar, who went on to
00:55:38be Horse of the Year.
00:55:40And there's no Bricks and Mortars in here from the U.S. horse.
00:55:43As a matter of fact, the U.S. contingent in here, especially with Burnham Square, really not seeming to be
00:55:49on his game right now, is unbelievably weak.
00:55:52Zoe, I'm going to make you happy.
00:55:54I'm going to pick your man, Sir Mark Prescott.
00:55:56Yeah.
00:55:57There you go.
00:55:58Now, this horse came over, this six-year-old mare came over and won the Turf Cup, the grade two,
00:56:06with a purse of probably about $13 million, knowing it was Kentucky Downs, and beat Ethical Diamond, who won Breeders'
00:56:12Cup Turf last year.
00:56:14Ethical Diamond seems to only run well in the U.S., doesn't seem to run very well over there.
00:56:20And, you know, we talked about this before.
00:56:24Sir Mark Prescott, he doesn't like to get on a plane.
00:56:26He is as good a trainer as he is.
00:56:28He's only run one time in the Breeders' Cup in his entire career, and he has enough confidence in Tiffany,
00:56:37as he well should, based on her last race to send her over here.
00:56:41So, is the Sir Mark Prescott team going to be celebrating after this race, Zoe?
00:56:47I don't think Sir Mark's going to be there either.
00:56:49William Butler, his main assistant, will be there with Tiffany.
00:56:52She's on the ground.
00:56:53She looks sharp.
00:56:54She looks ready.
00:56:55Sir Mark's very, very good at getting horses ready to run big races towards the end of the year, where
00:57:03maybe other people might be tailing off.
00:57:08I love Tiffany in this spot.
00:57:10Luke Morris is not a pretty rider at all.
00:57:12He might be pretty to look at, but when he gets to riding, you might think he's going to jump
00:57:16off of one.
00:57:16But he's good.
00:57:17He can thread the needle like anyone, and he'll be threading the needle.
00:57:21He'll go through a hole that's this big.
00:57:23He's a brilliant rider.
00:57:25So, I like Tiffany in there.
00:57:27I also like Bay City Roller, who's looked really good.
00:57:31He's had six starts this year already.
00:57:34The last three all packed on top of each other.
00:57:37Champion Stakes, Arcta Triumph, and Prefoy, and has run well.
00:57:41The fact that George Scott even puts him on a plane to bring him over says an awful lot to
00:57:46me.
00:57:46I believe he's going to run a big race.
00:57:49Diamond Necklace is in there.
00:57:51He ran well.
00:57:52But then you've got Ryan Moore, who doesn't draw Diamond Necklace.
00:57:56He's going to ride the two, Benvenuto Cellini.
00:57:59Now, somebody asked Aiden, is Ryan on the right horse?
00:58:03And he said, I'm not sure.
00:58:07So, I don't know what to think.
00:58:11Well, in the arc, Ryan had a choice between Benvenuto Cellini and Diamond Necklace.
00:58:17And he was originally going to ride Diamond Necklace until what they referred to as a horror draw.
00:58:2616 out of 16 in the arc.
00:58:29And because of that, Ryan switched and rode Benvenuto Cellini.
00:58:34And so, what happens?
00:58:35Benvenuto Cellini runs ninth and Diamond Necklace finishes third.
00:58:39So, I was convinced that Ryan Moore was going to ride Diamond Necklace in this spot.
00:58:45Well, Diamond Necklace has another outside draw, but it's only post 12.
00:58:50Benvenuto Cellini draws post two.
00:58:52Is that the reason why he went to Benvenuto again?
00:58:56But he is given a choice.
00:58:58He's given a choice by Aiden O'Brien.
00:59:01It's not like he's assigned these mounts.
00:59:04He's held in enough esteem at Valley Doyle that he is allowed to choose in situations like this which one
00:59:11he prefers to ride.
00:59:12And that sort of surprises me a little bit.
00:59:14And that's just one reason why I like Bay City Roller in here to beat Diamond Necklace.
00:59:20Yes.
00:59:21You know, I mean, look, third behind Ombudsman.
00:59:26And I don't know how you pronounce the horse's name.
00:59:28Caligdon.
00:59:30Calandigan.
00:59:31Okay.
00:59:31Second in the arc in the pre-foy before that to Daris, the arc winner.
00:59:37Then he wins by 10 in the Coronation Cup at Epsom before that.
00:59:40I mean, this is a really nice, nice horse.
00:59:42And again, it's going to be, I think, the Europeans are going to dominate in here.
00:59:46Servey, I think, is probably going to run a pretty good race.
00:59:48Ethical Diamond and Tiffany both should run pretty good races.
00:59:51But I'll take Bay City Roller at five to one and O'Sheen Murphy.
00:59:55So we just learned that Zoe Cabin is a big Cyndi Lauper fan.
00:59:58As we heard her phone ring, girls want to have fun.
01:00:01So, you know, she used to work on the backstretch at Belmont before she became a big sensation.
01:00:08So, yes.
01:00:10I think it's more the lyric for Zoe than it is the vocalist there.
01:00:13Yeah, I've got a guy waiting for me at Santa Anita.
01:00:16I've got supposed to go clip his horse.
01:00:18So that.
01:00:21Well, now we get to the big show of the day.
01:00:23And what a Breeders' Cup classic it is with stars galore, Forever Young, last year's winner,
01:00:28Sovereignty last year's horse of the year, Golden Tempo, the Kentucky Derby winner.
01:00:34You've got just horses up and down the lineup who are big, big stars.
01:00:39But I think that Knightsbridge is the fastest horse in the country.
01:00:44And Godolphin did the right thing here, running him against sovereignty.
01:00:47There was no point running him in the Breeders' Cup dirt mile.
01:00:50He was going to win it one to five and it wouldn't have proved a thing.
01:00:54I'm going to keep it simple.
01:00:55He's the fastest horse in the country.
01:00:57He's proven at a mile and a quarter.
01:00:59I know his Pacific Classic wasn't as visually as impressive as some people would have liked.
01:01:04But still, he won by six and a quarter lengths and got a 104 buyer.
01:01:08The regression off the big 122 in the Monmouth Cup was to be expected.
01:01:13The other comment I want to make is don't fall asleep on magnitude.
01:01:16I have no idea what happened to him when he ran so badly in the Whitney.
01:01:20He fell on his face.
01:01:22All right.
01:01:23He fell on his face, as Zoe said.
01:01:25And then he was good before that.
01:01:27He was good enough to win the Stephen Foster and beat, excuse me, beat Forever Young in the Dubai World
01:01:33Cup.
01:01:34So Knightsbridge, one for me, magnitude two for me.
01:01:39Zoe, how about you?
01:01:41I have sovereignty for me.
01:01:43I believe he's the best horse in that.
01:01:46I've got the utmost respect for Knightsbridge.
01:01:48I'm delighted that Godolphin, in my opinion, have done the right thing and run both of these horses in here.
01:01:54Big kudos to them.
01:01:56They couldn't look any better.
01:01:57Honestly, Knightsbridge looks fantastic.
01:01:59And if you look at Keeneland and route races over the course of the last five or 10 years, it's
01:02:05been very kind to speed.
01:02:07Speed has won 43% of them.
01:02:09Horses sitting just off the pace, 40%, and closes 17%.
01:02:14Only two closers have won the Classic in the last 15 years.
01:02:19So you're going to look for someone a little closer to the pace.
01:02:22I like sovereignty.
01:02:23I'm not sure why everyone's so down on golden tempo, even though I just rattled off those stats about deep
01:02:29closers not being able to win.
01:02:31But he's looked terrific.
01:02:32And I'm going to treat him as a four-year-old and not a three-year-old.
01:02:35We've not seen him since August.
01:02:37His works have been outstanding over the strip.
01:02:40I do like him to close and get some ground.
01:02:42And I'm not sure if he can get to sovereignty.
01:02:46There's going to be a lot of speed in there that's going to help him as well.
01:02:49I'm going to toss out Forever Young, even though I love him.
01:02:52I'd love to see them win.
01:02:54And I do respect magnitude.
01:02:56It's going to be a terrific race.
01:02:57But I will take sovereignty on top.
01:03:00Look, I think the two most brilliantly fast horses in the country, number one, Englishman at sprint distances, and number
01:03:07two, Knightsbridge.
01:03:09But I think Knightsbridge is a better miler than he is a mile and a quarter horse.
01:03:14Yes, he won the Pacific Classic.
01:03:15But, Bill, you pointed out he wasn't that visually impressive.
01:03:18He got a really good trip that he's probably not going to get in this spot.
01:03:24He didn't finish that quickly by the clock in the last quarter mile.
01:03:27Now, his fig wasn't as good as it's going to need to be at a mile and a quarter here.
01:03:31He's going to have to deal with magnitude, who's got to go, because magnitude's drawn inside of the other speed.
01:03:38He's got to go.
01:03:40Napoleon Solo, John Velasquez is not going to let magnitude get away easily.
01:03:45And Knightsbridge is going to be right there parked outside of them in the mix.
01:03:48So I think it's going to be a really, really quick pace.
01:03:50Now, the one thing I totally agree, as we said last week, Godolphin made the right move to run Knightsbridge
01:03:57in this race.
01:03:58Give him a chance to go out in a blaze of glory, because he's earned it.
01:04:01He's a very, very talented horse.
01:04:03But one thing that his presence does as sort of an ancillary benefit for Godolphin, it helps sovereignty.
01:04:13He's not a rabbit.
01:04:14That's not why he's in the race.
01:04:15But that will crank up the pace factor even a little bit more than it would have been ordinarily, to
01:04:22have Knightsbridge out there 3-D, pushing him along.
01:04:25And so what did we say last week?
01:04:27In Mott, we trust.
01:04:29If Mott chooses to run sovereignty in this fight, and we talked to him this morning, and he thinks sovereignty
01:04:35is going to be 100%, is going to run his A race, that's good enough for me.
01:04:39And he did.
01:04:40He said that to us again this morning.
01:04:42So I think the pace is going to set up for him.
01:04:44I think he and Forever Young are the two best horses on paper, so that's my one, too.
01:04:50The matchup that we had hoped to get last year in the Breeders' Cup Classic, we get now.
01:04:54And I like sovereignty one, Forever Young two.
01:04:59I don't think Magnitude is going to get a clear lead.
01:05:02So even though he's training very well, I'm going to pitch him.
01:05:05I'm going to pitch Napoleon Solo.
01:05:06To me, in the third spot, it's a toss-up.
01:05:08I'm going to go for the odds.
01:05:10I think the Puma could be key to a pretty nice exacta.
01:05:15Four wide on both turns in the Pennsylvania Derby.
01:05:18Made a monster move around the turn to blow to the lead.
01:05:21Barely held off further ado at the end.
01:05:24But I think the Puma and Golden Tempo underneath right there for the trifecta.
01:05:29All right, there you have it.
01:05:31Some very good opinions from my friends and colleagues, Zoe Cabman and Randy Moss.
01:05:36Hopefully, we've helped you with what is a very interesting and difficult handicapping challenge, as the Breeders' Cup always is.
01:05:43The TDN Writer's Room Work of the Week is brought to you by First TV, and it was the undefeated
01:05:50Vanta, who worked four furlongs in 48-2 on Thursday at Santa Anita for trainer Jeff Mullins before heading east
01:05:57to Keeneland for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Phillies Turf.
01:06:01Vanta has broken her maiden and won the Juvenile Phillies Turf Stakes at Del Mar and won the Grade 3
01:06:06Surfer Girl at Santa Anita.
01:06:08In her most recent start, she might be the West Coast's best chance at a podium placing.
01:06:15We'll be right back after this message from First TV.
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01:07:20West Point Thoroughbreds.
01:07:22We'll be celebrating the Breeders' Cup at Keeneland with a large contingent of partners on hand.
01:07:26And again for racing's championship weekend.
01:07:29I say again because the partners witnessed last year Super Corridora win the juvenile fillies and the two-year-old
01:07:36filly championship.
01:07:37And now Super Corridora takes aim Saturday at the $2 million Breeders' Cup Distaff.
01:07:43She has a chance to join some truly exclusive company.
01:07:46Beholder is the only horse ever to win both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and the Distaff.
01:07:53So Super Corridora will be looking to match that achievement.
01:07:56Meanwhile, the festivities begin Thursday.
01:07:59It'll be a morning at the track for the partners.
01:08:02And then several dozen West Point partners will visit Three Chimneys Farm to see Super Corridora's superstar sire, Gunrunner.
01:08:12Three, obviously.
01:08:13West Point would love nothing more for Gunrunner to continue his remarkable run with the wind and the Distaff.
01:08:24So that's a wrap on this week's TDN Writers' Room podcast presented by Keeneland.
01:08:29Obviously, we'll be back next week to wrap up the Breeders' Cup.
01:08:32I want to thank Randy Moss and Zoe Cabman.
01:08:35No Gainsway guests of the week this week because we just did all the talking ourselves.
01:08:40We always thank Gainsway for being a sponsor.
01:08:42I also want to thank the people that worked behind the scenes and worked so hard to make this show
01:08:46look as good as it does.
01:08:48And that's the team of Sue Finley, Katie Petruniak, Anthony, and Aaliyah LaRocca.
01:08:53Guys, it's going to be a great two days of racing at Keeneland for the Breeders' Cup.
01:08:57Enjoy.
01:08:58Watch the coverage on NBC with our friend Randy Moss.
01:09:02Have a great show, Randy.
01:09:04It looks beautiful, man.
01:09:06It's beautiful.
01:09:06It's beautiful.
01:09:07It looks beautiful.
01:09:08It looks beautiful.