00:00I want to get on Jeffrey Simmons here and the idea for the Bills.
00:05So, is it possible to make a case while not having anyone to make a case for?
00:11And what I mean is, should the Bills trade two first-round picks for a player to try to win
00:15the Super Bowl?
00:16Yes.
00:18I don't know who that is right now, so maybe this isn't the year to do it.
00:21I don't see this idea for them yet.
00:25Could they go get Buda Baker or Zach Bond?
00:27Sure.
00:28It's just kind of funny because in the NFL, the trade deadline, this has become – things have picked up
00:33quite a bit, Joe, right?
00:34Where in the last five, ten years, there are more trades at the deadline than there used to be.
00:38When we grew up, when I was a kid, there were not NFL trades.
00:41Now there's a lot.
00:42So, Jeffrey Simmons for two first-round picks.
00:47The stamp I want to put on the piece of paper, the loudest thing, the thing that my takeaway from
00:51today and everything going forward is,
00:53in no world should Bills fans or people that analyze the Bills look at the history of trades like that
01:01as some sort of context on whether or not it's a good idea.
01:06The same way that Joe Brady, being a first-time head coach, should not have been included with, well, here
01:14are the percentage of first-year head coaches that make the playoffs.
01:18No, no, no, no, no.
01:20These things don't happen in a vacuum.
01:22If the Bills spent two first-round picks on a player to shore up their defense the way that the
01:27Colts did, those are not the same things.
01:31You live in a different world.
01:33This is the same as when the Bills have the ninth-ranked offense, and I think that's terrible.
01:39That means the guys you're ahead of are not good.
01:42You're supposed to be in the top three.
01:43The standard here should be to win a Super Bowl and to break through the proverbial wall.
01:50They fired a coach to do it.
01:51They hired a first-year head coach.
01:52He's off to a great start.
01:54Is he the best of the young coaches?
01:55I have no idea.
01:57I know that he has Josh Allen, and that is built in.
02:01And I think when people get upset with the idea that Brandon Bean has not swung for the fences,
02:06it's because being careful and cautious and just keeping your picks, that's for lame teams that don't want to risk
02:15it.
02:15You have the built-in floor of Josh Allen's existence.
02:19This is another year that proves it.
02:21And if you want to go in big and make a trade, you should do it,
02:25and you should not be pointing to how one time the Seahawks traded two first-round picks for Jamal Adams.
02:31That's not relevant.
02:33It does not matter.
02:34This is not something that happens enough.
02:36Give me 10,000 simulations of a Josh Allen team vying for the one seed, adding a game record.
02:45How many times does it make a difference?
02:47That, to me, is the test.
02:50All that said, I don't really have a guy for you.
02:52So I want to make that case and defend any idea about going big, going in,
02:58poo-pooing anybody trying to tell me,
03:00well, you know, there was a first-round trade, so-and-so traded two first-round picks for Keyshawn Johnson.
03:06Congratulations.
03:06That has nothing to do with the Bills winning now and winning the Super Bowl.
03:11I think Bills fans are hungry for a big move.
03:17And this year, I might actually defend the GM because I don't know what the big move is.
03:21It would really have to shock us, shock the system.
03:24I have one name that could be that name, but I don't think it's possible.
03:27Not just like Buda Baker, but really big.
03:29Big, big, big.
03:29A guy that I think if you wanted to trade for him today, he's going to cost you two first
03:33-round picks.
03:33Okay, who is it?
03:33Garrett Wilson.
03:35He's going to cost you two first-round picks.
03:37And if they did that, are they going to win?
03:40I kind of think they would do something.
03:41I know it does not fix their defense.
03:44It would just never be stopped.
03:45I think they would score 45 points a game.
03:49I don't know.
03:50It would be something nuts.
03:51But I do think, I like your point about this, and I also want to take the other side of
03:57it.
03:57Because the first thing I thought of, Joe Marino tweeted out a list of all the trades.
04:02I saw that.
04:02And I immediately thought, oh wow, that really has gone worse than I would have thought.
04:07A lot of these teams that trade two firsts for a star player, it doesn't really go well for them.
04:12But my first thought was, okay, but I want to know the other side of it.
04:17You can't judge that in a vacuum.
04:19I want to know what those picks became.
04:20Did the other team feel like they got a lot out of it?
04:23Who were they really giving up?
04:24Because the first round is a crapshoot, especially at the end of the first round.
04:28And I actually was going down that rabbit hole of looking up.
04:33I'm like, this is going to take a while.
04:34I'm going to do it.
04:35And then I saw Yards Per Pass did it already.
04:36So he's got all the players that got selected with the picks that were traded.
04:42And even that list, okay, there's some really good players on here.
04:47But you've got to, again, approach it from the Bills' end and the Bills' approach.
04:51So, for instance, Russell Wilson went for two first-round picks.
04:55What did Seattle get out of it?
04:56Charles Cross and Devin Witherspoon.
04:58Okay, good.
04:58Those were two top ten picks.
05:00Guess what the Bills' pick is not going to be in the top ten.
05:03In any world, it's not going to be that.
05:06So, I'm looking at, what's the lowest the Bills have been slotted since Josh Allen got great?
05:12Is it 23?
05:1325th.
05:13They traded up to 23.
05:1425th.
05:14Okay, 25th.
05:15The lowest they've ever been slotted is 25th.
05:18And the players that are used in this trade list with picks like that are not great players.
05:26Malachi Lawrence, Louis Seen, who's not in the league.
05:29Brian Thomas Jr.
05:31And, you know, Jordan Love is the one.
05:34I mean, he's a quarterback, right?
05:35So, that's one that's really, really valuable.
05:38Travis Etienne.
05:40You've got some good players in here.
05:42But Anthony Beckett, you go way back, right?
05:44It was a tight end, played in the league.
05:45Cleveland, Gary, whatever.
05:47Now I'm into the 80s.
05:48But, whatever.
05:49The list is not a list of great players at all.
05:51It's representative of what the end of the first round is.
05:54Yeah.
05:54It's not a strong hit rate that you're going to get a great player.
05:59And you have to approach it from the Bills' first round picks are not anybody trading two first round picks.
06:05It's two very late firsts that are like a coin flip to be a good player.
06:10There's also just, there's a little bit of a fallacy here.
06:14If every playoff team traded a first round pick for a player and then they went to the playoffs,
06:21how many of those would be deemed successes and failures?
06:23Is it one because that's the team that won the Super Bowl and the other 13 are bad?
06:29Built into this is this idea that we only decide if the trade worked based on if the team won
06:35the Super Bowl.
06:36If the Bears win the Super Bowl, I guess they get to say the Jeffrey Simmons trade worked.
06:41What if they don't?
06:42What if he's just great for them for four years?
06:45That's a good trade.
06:47That's how that works.
06:48It's Ben Johnson in his second season.
06:50They have their quarterback on not yet extended.
06:53They have the time to say, rookie window, let's do this.
06:57And maybe what people feel is that the Bills in their long run here with Allen never did what the
07:04Chicago Bears just did.
07:05They never said, hey, we got ourselves a year here.
07:08We got ourselves a problem.
07:10We can identify and get a great player now.
07:13And instead of that, you know, you get your Kyer Elam's, Maxwell Hairston's, Dalton Kincaid's, Osiris Torrance's second round.
07:21I was looking at like first and second round picks.
07:23You know, they've drafted well.
07:24Sometimes they've missed other times.
07:26Greg Rousseau, you wouldn't want to have lost that pick in a trade, would you?
07:29I don't know.
07:30Is the player you would have gotten good?
07:31So, I think Bills fans are hungry right now.
07:34And I also get the sense that if Bean does not make a move of a little bit of significance,
07:40people are going to come for him.
07:42And for the rest of the show today, if you want to do this as part of Football Friday, tell
07:46us the move.
07:47You said Garrett Wilson.
07:48Who's the move?
07:50Maybe this player is not even for sale, not even up for an offer.
07:56Blind, cold call, and offer two firsts.
07:59Who says yes and what's the move?
08:01Because I don't know what it is.
08:03And if the Bills don't make some massive splash like this this year, I think it will be defendable.
08:08I don't know who this player is.
08:10Should they have done this for Jeffrey Simmons?
08:13Probably not.
08:14I would have liked a...
08:18Probably not.
08:20But the player's great.
08:21Man, I would have...
08:23I'll say...
08:24I would have respected it.
08:26For sure.
08:27If they were to have done it.
08:29You're going to go get a great player right now at a position that, by the way, does actually age
08:35pretty well in the league.
08:36Everyone's different.
08:37But defensive tackles typically can play great into their late 30s.
08:41And you know your first-round picks are going to be late.
08:44So let's do it.
08:46Go win the Super Bowl.
08:47I think value-wise, sure, it might have looked like a loss.
08:50But I would have respected it a lot if the Bills had been the one to do it.
08:53I respect it from Chicago's end.
08:54Chicago has done this three times.
08:57Where they've traded multiple first-round picks for a player.
09:00They did with Jay Cutler, Khalil Mack, and now Jeffrey Simmons.
09:03So that organization...
09:04They do it.
09:05They've done it as much as anybody.
09:06They're going for it.
09:06Yeah.
09:07We'll get a break in because we were late.
09:09803-0550.
09:10Sean, Louie, we'll get to your calls.
09:11Wide open for you.
09:12Flyover Radio 730 this morning to talk about the flyover on Sunday against the Ravens.
09:17It is a football Friday.
09:19You can hang with us here on WGR.
