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Réactions des pays du Golfe aux midterms et possible attaque US en Iran

Les élections de mi-mandat passées, l'attention se tourne vers la prochaine décision de Donald Trump sur l'Iran, alors que Washington avertit les alliés du Golfe de possibles frappes. Pourparlers sur l'Ukraine à Abu Dhabi, menaces de bombe sur des vols européens et livre sur Emmanuel Macron.

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00:01Sous-titrage Société Radio-Canada
00:30Investors weighed the future course of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran after President Donald Trump's Republican Party suffered heavy
00:38losses in midterm elections this week.
00:40Analysts blamed the still uncertain situation in the region for the higher oil price.
00:45The conflict with Iran, which Trump launched alongside Israel in February, and the resulting higher fuel prices for U.S.
00:53consumers were major grievances for voters in Tuesday's rounds of Republicans.
00:58U.S. First Lady Melania Trump hosted officials from Moscow and Kiev at the White House yesterday, ahead of talks
01:05in Abu Dhabi aimed at ending the Ukraine war.
01:08The talks would be the first between Ukraine, Russia and the United States since February.
01:13They have revived hopes for peace as Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine grinds through its fifth year.
01:20Last month, Melania Trump had brokered a partial ceasefire that allowed the evacuation of civilians from a Russian-occupied town.
01:27And Portuguese superstar Cristiano Ronaldo announced his retirement from international football.
01:34The 41-year-old is ending a career that spanned six World Cups and included a European title and the
01:41men's all-time international scoring record.
01:44Ronaldo is the second global star player within weeks to end his time on the national team,
01:49after long-time peer Lionel Messi finished his career with Argentina last month.
01:54Ronaldo will keep playing at club level in Saudi Arabia.
01:59Welcome to the program, I'm Stefan Grobe.
02:01The U.S. midterm elections are over, and attention is now turning to Donald Trump's next move in the Middle
02:08East.
02:08For weeks, the president has hinted that Washington could resume military strikes against Iran once Americans have voted.
02:15U.S. officials have reportedly warned regional allies to prepare for a possible new wave of attacks and for Iranian
02:23retaliation.
02:24But is military escalation now inevitable, or is there still a diplomatic way out?
02:29And could a renewed confrontation plunge an already volatile region into an even wider war?
02:36For more on this, let's head over to Doha, where our correspondent Adel Halim is standing by for us.
02:41Good morning, Adel.
02:44Good morning, Stefan.
02:46So, how are Gulf countries reacting to the midterms?
02:49Is there still concern about another U.S. attack on Iran?
02:55Well, there's a growing concern here in the Gulf that another major attack on Iran may be coming,
02:59despite U.S. President Donald Trump's major losses in the midterms.
03:03Trump said overnight that he'd rather not destroy the rest of the country,
03:06but added that he might have to.
03:08You will see soon enough.
03:10Now, we've heard this kind of language from the U.S. President before,
03:13often used to pressure Iran into making concessions.
03:17But there are also reports that the U.S. and Israel have put together plans for a short, intensive campaign
03:22aimed at targeting Iran's nuclear sites as well as key infrastructure.
03:27And Iran is warning that any countries helping the U.S. launch an attack may soon become targets themselves.
03:33That's a real concern here in the Gulf, home to many American military bases.
03:38So the fear is another round of fighting may quickly escalate and spread across the region,
03:43bringing more disruption to countries already badly affected after months of conflict.
03:48Stefan?
03:49And are diplomatic efforts making progress, or are Washington and Tehran still too far apart?
03:58Well, there are some encouraging signs, despite all the military threats.
04:02According to Reuters, Iran has sent a new nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatari mediators,
04:08and the U.S. is reportedly reviewing it.
04:11But there are still some big obstacles to overcome.
04:14Iran says it will not negotiate with Washington until its seven demands are met,
04:18including sanctions relief.
04:19And U.S. President Donald Trump has been steadfast that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.
04:24Here in Doha, Qatar's prime minister spoke directly with Iran's foreign minister,
04:28urging a diplomatic solution as well as safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
04:32Iran's foreign minister has spoken with several counterparts across the region.
04:36And Iran's security chief met with President Putin in Moscow,
04:39delivering a message from Iran's supreme leader.
04:41And Russia has also offered to help mediate.
04:44But whether any of this is enough to prevent another round of fighting remains to be seen.
04:49Stefan?
04:51Okay, Adil Halim in Doha, thank you very much.
04:54Talks aimed at bringing about an end to hostilities in Ukraine will continue next week in Abu Dhabi,
05:00following technical discussions here in Brussels.
05:05Let's bring in our NATO correspondent, Shona Murray, who is in Helsinki.
05:09Good morning, Shona.
05:10Well, good morning, Stefan.
05:12Yes, indeed, those talks have concluded for two days with officials from NATO,
05:15the European Commission and the World Bank.
05:17Now it's all eyes on Abu Dhabi next week, where you'll have higher working level meetings with Russia, Ukraine and
05:23the United States,
05:24convened by the US envoy Steve Witkoff.
05:27What I've heard, the best sort of hope for this is that there may be another prisoner swap and potentially
05:31a ceasefire.
05:32But we don't know if that's confirmed because we don't know what Vladimir Putin, the Russian president,
05:36is willing to agree to.
05:38Coming from here in Helsinki, officials are saying that the message needs to be impressed on Putin,
05:43that Europe will never abandon Ukraine and for him to continue the war is fruitless.
05:48Now, above all, the urgent need for Ukraine to receive Patriot interceptor missiles, that is also very important.
05:56NATO sources have told me that there's a message coming from the Supreme Allied Commander,
06:01that countries that have interceptors need to give them to Ukraine, but they're only willing to do so
06:06if they can guarantee of replenishment from the US.
06:09That is not forthcoming yet.
06:11But I caught up with Antti Hakkinen, the Finnish defense minister,
06:14and I asked him about this situation and what should be done.
06:18The winter is coming and Russia is preparing huge attacks to Ukraine's civil infrastructure, energy infrastructure.
06:27And now is the most critical time to have all the air defense capabilities for Ukraine,
06:34what we can arrange.
06:35We have the funding.
06:37We have the funding.
06:38Now we need the stocks to be delivered to Ukraine.
06:43And there's also some other countries globally which can support.
06:47But we need the political willingness also from the US side to start the deliveries.
06:52Europeans have gave the funding for that and now it's only a matter of kind of political arrangements.
07:00Europeans are now the biggest supporter of Ukraine and we are giving the EU loan a strong bilateral support.
07:06So we are quite a big players in that field.
07:10But still we have to show more strength, more willingness in long term to support Ukraine.
07:17Because if there comes some political messages that Europe is exhausted or something like that,
07:24that's a wrong message that weakens our negotiation position.
07:29When we are messaging that how we are supporting Ukraine in long term first and the sanctions also,
07:34we have to show willingness in long term to be tough on these positions.
07:41Just final question.
07:42You said that there was a serious threat still looming from Russia across Europe.
07:47Can you describe that given where we are geographically?
07:50Well, Russia is ramping up their military in all domains from traditional conventional warfare
07:55and also nuclear capabilities.
07:57And they are building new infrastructure, increasing their manpower, building new infrastructure,
08:03not just in our vicinity but also wider area.
08:08So they can pose a military threat, not direct at this point,
08:13but in future we have to be prepared for that kind of scenarios.
08:17We hope that there will be a peace and peaceful solutions in everything,
08:21but Europeans have to ramp up their defense and fast
08:25and also counter these hybrid threats much more efficiently and united.
08:32Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkinen speaking to Shona Murray in Helsinki.
08:37In the United States, the midterm elections were not only a referendum on Donald Trump.
08:42They could also prove to be a defining moment for the Democratic Party,
08:46forcing it to confront some difficult questions about its leadership, its identity and its strategy for the future.
08:53Who speaks for the Democrats?
08:55And can the party turn electoral gains into a coherent political alternative?
09:00And what lessons will it draw as it looks ahead to 2028?
09:04Earlier, I discussed this with Bruce Stokes, associate fellow at Chatham House,
09:08senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
09:12Here's what he said.
09:14There was an American comedian in the 1930s named Will Rogers.
09:19And he was once asked what political party he belonged to.
09:23And he said, I don't belong to an organized political party.
09:26I'm a Democrat.
09:27And there will be, as you suggested, tensions between the progressive wing of the party
09:33and the moderate wing of the party going forward in terms of priorities.
09:38I think, realistically, it would appear now there might be maybe eight or more,
09:46nine, maybe ten Democratic socialists in the Democratic caucus of now 240, 250 people.
09:54So they'll be very vocal.
09:58They'll claim the election is an endorsement of their agenda.
10:03But I think the reality is that the Democrats and the more moderate Democrats are really the
10:10ones who prevailed.
10:11So Democrats succeeded largely on the message of being against Trump.
10:15But going forward, they're going to have to decide what they want to stand for when he
10:20won't be on the ballot.
10:22Your take.
10:22I think you're right.
10:23You know, we have a long saying in the United States about it's the economy stupid.
10:29And clearly, the exit polling data showed that people thought the economy was the principal
10:33issue.
10:34But in this case, it was also Trump stupid that people by three to one said that they
10:41had voted against Trump in this election.
10:45So the question is going to be, what do the Democrats stand for going into the 2028 election?
10:52How do the various contenders position themselves?
10:56Because they can't just continue to talk about Trump.
10:59Because, as you say, constitutionally, the president can't run again.
11:04So it's going to be a question of what are we going to do to win the voters' support in
11:112028 when we don't have Trump to beat up.
11:14Well, even with this week's big victories, Democrats are going to be limited in what
11:18they can do with their new congressional majorities because Trump can veto everything.
11:24How do you see this divided government play out?
11:28Well, it'd be very interesting to see whether the Democrats can fashion some initial legislation
11:34that addresses the cost of health care, for example, or food stamps, which, yes, it is true
11:42that in the Senate they would need 60 votes because otherwise you can block things in the Senate
11:48if you don't have 60 votes, but it puts at least some Republicans who are up for re-election in
11:542028 in a bit of a bind.
11:56Do they want to vote against the food stamps?
11:59Do they want to vote against Medicaid, which is our health care for poor people?
12:04Do they want to vote against subsidies for Obamacare, which have gone up dramatically?
12:10On that note, I know it's early, but who do you see as the candidate leading the Democrats
12:17into the next presidential election?
12:20So it's very early at this point, but you're right.
12:23There's going to be more than a half a dozen, maybe even 10 people are going to throw their
12:28hats in the rings in the next couple of weeks.
12:30I think the clear winner from this election in terms of raising his profile and exciting
12:36people is John Ossoff, who is the senator from Georgia, who won by 18 or 19 percentage points
12:43and is young, he's articulate, he's from the South.
12:49And I think the initial excitement is going to be about here.
12:57Political analyst Bruce Stokes speaking to us from Boston.
13:00A wave of bomb threats targeting commercial airliners is raising alarm across European aviation.
13:06Flights have been diverted, emergency procedures activated,
13:10and fighter jets scrambled, in some cases based on threats that ultimately proved to be false.
13:16But who is behind this apparent campaign?
13:19And are we witnessing a new form of hybrid warfare designed to disrupt European air travel
13:24and undermine public confidence?
13:27To assess the scale of the threat and the vulnerabilities it exposes,
13:31I'm now joined by aviation expert and travel journalist Owen Corey in Dublin.
13:36Good morning to you.
13:38Good morning, Stefan.
13:39So, what happens operationally when an aircraft receives a bomb threat?
13:45What procedures are immediately triggered?
13:48I think you've already, that is part of the problem, Stefan.
13:52We have over 500 civil airports in Europe.
13:56Usually a bomb threat comes to the airport, less so to the airline,
14:00and each airport is activating it using a separate set of protocols.
14:05The protocols aren't that scattered.
14:08It tends to be escalated to the local police force.
14:11And from there, very often to the state military intelligence or the military agencies.
14:18What we've seen on Tuesday and again yesterday,
14:21when we had over 20 flights affected, some very dramatically, others less so,
14:26is different airports reacting to what seems to be a blanket set of threats,
14:32almost weaponizing disruption, because this is designed to disrupt.
14:38This is not designed to blow up anything.
14:39If you're going to blow up anything, you're not going to put every airport in Europe on the highest state
14:44of alert.
14:45And some airports, Stefan, seem to be jumpier than others when these threats come in.
14:49And Owen, are airlines and airports sufficiently equipped to deal with a sustained campaign of false bomb threats?
14:57This is really weaponizing the threat of a bomb,
15:01because you've got to remember how safe a European airspace is.
15:06For 40 years, nobody has got a bomb on board an aircraft.
15:09You have to go back to Lockerbie before you see anything like this happening.
15:15Airports have been very, very, very good at security.
15:18And all the viewers will know exactly what it takes to get through airport security.
15:23Nobody really has a chance of getting a bomb on board.
15:26But what they've discovered is they can weaponize the threat of a bomb to disrupt.
15:30What we need now is a strategy that when you escalate that bomb threat,
15:37who is assessing that is a genuine threat?
15:40Because quite clearly, some of the airports in Europe are escalating threats,
15:46and there are hundreds of other threats that seem to be going in.
15:48This has emerged in the last two or three days that are not being escalated.
15:53I think at some stage, a little bit of talking to each other might be done.
15:56All right, Owen Curry, aviation expert and travel journalist,
16:00thank you for coming on the show this morning.
16:03And now let's cross to France, where major protests have been ongoing for weeks
16:07as the government struggles to push its budget through a divided parliament.
16:11And if that weren't enough for France's executive,
16:15a new book has now shed light on a series of revelations about French President Emmanuel Macron.
16:20Our reporter Estelle Nilsson-Julien is standing by for us in Paris.
16:24Good morning, Estelle. What can you tell us?
16:27Good morning, Stefan.
16:29Well, yes, this new book reveals a series of telegram messages
16:33that the French President exchanged with journalist,
16:36François Goudois, who's a political journalist,
16:40former advisor to Sigourney Royale, the socialist politician.
16:44And they exchanged the messages for two years,
16:47and this all began when the French President reached out to François
16:51after she shared a message on Twitter in solidarity with Brigitte Macron,
16:57who had been facing an intense wave of cyber harassment and trolling
17:01in light of fake allegations and claiming that she was a trans person.
17:08So she was facing a wave of transphobia,
17:11and de Bois tweeted, no woman deserves to be treated this way.
17:16Macron subsequently reached out to her in the telegram messages,
17:20and their messaging and texting began from there.
17:25And what does the book tell us about Macron and his decade of power?
17:30Well, these messages revealed that Macron is determined
17:34to prevent the National Rally Party,
17:36which is topping the polls ahead of next spring's presidential elections,
17:41from succeeding him.
17:43In his exchanges with the author,
17:44he defended his controversial decision to call snap elections
17:48in the summer of 2024,
17:50after the National Rally Party won a record number of seats
17:54in the European parliamentary elections.
17:57He also staunchly defended his decision
17:59not to name a left-wing prime minister
18:03following the results of these snap and exchanges,
18:06is that he was critical of mainstream politicians from the right
18:12whom he accused of drifting towards the far right.
18:16Stéphane.
18:16You spoke to Françoise Degrois, the book's author.
18:19What did she make of all of this?
18:22She told me that Macron is grappling with his political legacy.
18:27He promised upon his victory
18:29to minimise the power of political extreme forces in France.
18:34And at present, he has not succeeded in doing so.
18:38But she also told me that from these exchanges,
18:40she feels that he is of a very combative nature
18:44and that he is still in a questioning phase,
18:46interrogating himself,
18:48searching for answers and solutions.
18:51As for why she published the book,
18:53she told me that, in her view,
18:54Macron knows full well who she is.
18:57She's a former advisor, a journalist,
19:00and that he did not reveal any state secrets to her.
19:03And there have been some speculation in France
19:07about whether the Élysée knew about this book.
19:10They say that they didn't.
19:12And Françoise Degrois also told me
19:14that the president was not aware of its publication
19:17until the days just before it was released.
19:21Stéphane.
19:22Wow.
19:23Estelle-Lisson-Julien,
19:24thank you so much for your reporting.
19:26And that does it for us today.
19:28Thank you for watching.
19:29I'm Stéphane Grobe.
19:31Take care.
19:31And I'll see you on Monday.
19:58I'll see you on Monday.

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