00:00Let's bring in Samuel Romani, Associate Fellow at the RUCI Think Tank and also CEO of Pangaea Geopolitical Risk.
00:07Hello, Samuel. I think you heard what our correspondent had to say.
00:11Miller is known for being a hawk.
00:13But do you expect Trump will now double down and use Miller for domestic programs
00:18or rather for doubling down on foreign policy?
00:22Well, I think that Miller's primary areas of focus have typically been on the domestic side of things.
00:27I mean, immigration was obviously his primary focus.
00:30But he's also been quite hawkish on some issues relating to the Middle East,
00:34especially he's quite criticising Qatar, who's now the main mediator
00:37because of his involvement in criticising Qatari funding of American education.
00:42But I think that he'll be leaning towards the domestic side of things.
00:46But I think he will be a hawkish influence also on the Iran war secondarily.
00:51J.D. Vann said this week that the war cost them votes in the midterm.
00:55Trump said the war is absolutely necessary.
00:58Any sign at this stage how the president may approach the war in Iran?
01:03So far, we haven't seen any response from the U.S. on these reports of attacks in Iran.
01:09Well, things are basically on a knife's edge right now.
01:11Qatar is trying to mediate as much as they can in order to forestall the situation.
01:16And so far, the U.S. has confined its escalations to more limited strikes,
01:20like the ones around Qashem Island targeting air defences.
01:22But in the Democratic Congress, once it takes over in January 2027,
01:27now from the 3rd of January onward, we'll be pushing for a de-escalation,
01:31offering funding restrictions, or maybe even opening up some legal and procedural inquiries
01:36against the decisions by Secretary of War Pete Hexer in that regard.
01:41So I think that the moment of peak danger for us is between now and the 3rd of January.
01:46But I don't think that a major escalation like we saw in February and March is a foregone conclusion.
01:50I think that that is still not inevitable.
01:54The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues with more deadly strikes overnight on Ukraine.
01:59There are trilateral talks due on Tuesday involving the United States.
02:04Do you expect any change in approach by the United States to this conflict?
02:10Well, I think that the Trump administration will try to ramp up pressure for a deal between now and the
02:14end of the year,
02:15because the Democrats are going to be pushing for more resumptions of congressional funding streams
02:20that actually give the U.S. military assistance to Ukraine instead of the U.S. weapons being sold to Europe
02:25and Europe being distributed.
02:27Also, the Democrats will probably be able to put a harder legislative line on any kind of disruptions
02:32or weaponization of intelligence provisions or Starling provisions, like we've seen allegedly happen recently,
02:38or potentially deal with some of the concessions that Trump has made to Russia, particularly with regards to diesel.
02:43But there's still a substantial amount that Trump as an executive can do to counter that.
02:47So I think that he will try to push for a deal.
02:49But even if something doesn't happen, there will be more of a push and pull and conflict
02:53between Trump and Congress over Ukraine, rather than actually the Democrats calling the agenda fully.
02:59We've seen Susie Wiles is now out as chief of staff, replaced by Stephen Miller.
03:04Do you expect to see more axings, more appointments by Donald Trump in the wake of the midterm results?
03:11Well, I mean, certainly.
03:12I think that we look back historically when the Bush midterms went badly in 2006.
03:17Donald Rumsfeld was the first in the shopping block because of his association with a highly unpopular war in Iraq.
03:22And now, exactly 20 years later, we're looking at the same situation with a highly unpopular war with Iran.
03:27So Pete Hegseth is potentially vulnerable, particularly if the Democrats are willing to probe the decisions to launch the war
03:35without congressional approval.
03:36And also, I think that Marco Rubio has indicated that he's safe for now and he's going to be trying
03:41to stay on.
03:42But there's also pressure on him to distance himself from some of these policies if he wants to be a
03:47credible alternative to J.D. Vance as a presidential contender.
03:50So I think that there will be axings, but also resignations that we should be looking out for as the
03:562028 hopefuls try to position themselves as loyal to Trump when it mattered,
04:01but also distant enough from Trump as they're not seen as a Trump 3.0.
04:04Thank you so much for chatting to us, Samuel Romani, Associate Fellow at the RUSI Think Tank and CEO of
04:10Pangea Geopolitical Risk.
04:12Thank you so much for joining us.
