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  • il y a 2 semaines
When managing projects the Critical Chain way you you manage uncertainty explicitly and transparently. You do not try to impose certainty on uncertainty as many top managers try and do. For each task you admit that the duration is unknown and you ask for 2 durations: an optimistic duration and a pessimistic duration. You must not ask people to commit to one duration because if you do that they will add padding or a buffer to be able to honour their commitment in an uncertain environment.

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00:00According to the theory of constraints, you've already killed the project simply by the way you have started managing it.
00:04You've been trying to impose certainty on uncertainty.
00:06You should not have asked somebody how long it would take with a commitment to do something with an uncertain
00:12duration.
00:13The theory of constraints says, after we've trained and explained to people why we're going to do this,
00:17we ask them for two numbers for each task, the pessimistic duration and the optimistic duration.
00:22The optimistic duration is, imagine you only have that to do, you have a full kit of information,
00:27you don't have any significant problems, you don't have to do any multitasking or go to stupid meetings.
00:31If you only have that to do, what is the average time, average time that you think it could take?
00:36This is not a commitment in any kind.
00:38And to prove it's not a commitment, I mean, I'll ask you, what's your pessimistic estimate for that same task,
00:43right?
00:43If things go bad, how bad could it get?
00:45So you get two numbers out of everybody rather than one.
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How do you estimate task durations?

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