00:00 Italia continues to slowly get better organized. I think that organization or
00:05 strengthening will be slow as we go through today, but boy late tonight and
00:11 tomorrow look out. We think Italia is going to get much better organized. Now
00:15 here's what's going on. The center of circulation has always been on the north
00:19 and northwestern side of where we have all of the clouds on the water vapor
00:23 loop. Look at the bright reds. That means high cloud tops in the atmosphere.
00:27 Here's where you have the thunderstorms. The reason that it is poorly organized
00:32 because there's an organized system, the center of circulation should be
00:35 right in the middle of where you see all the clouds, is that it is encountering
00:39 wind shear. Now when you take a look at one system strengthen, what do they need?
00:44 What are the ingredients for tropical systems to form and strengthen? There are
00:48 three. Warm water, light winds aloft or limited wind shear, and sufficient
00:52 moisture. Dry dusty air prohibits deep convection. You have two out of the three.
00:56 Aren't positive for development. We only have one, but it's a big one. The water
01:03 temperatures and then it's greater than 80 degrees. It's in the middle to upper
01:07 80s right now. So it's the limited wind shear and also it's the wind shear and
01:12 also there's some dry air around the center that is limiting the development
01:17 here. However, the upper low that's causing this northwest wind shear is
01:21 going to be leaving and as it leaves the winds are going to relax as it
01:28 pushes into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It's going to be in this part of the
01:32 Gulf of Mexico where water temperatures are 86-88 degrees and when you take a
01:36 look at the path here, you're going to be looking at this storm with light wind
01:40 shear going over warm water for about 24 to 30 hours and that's why we think this
01:46 is going to rapidly intensify as we move through our Tuesday, Tuesday night. Now
01:51 this path, I think this is going to be pretty consistent. I don't think there's
01:55 going to be any many jogs to the right or left. I think we're pretty locked in
01:59 somewhere around the Big Bite here as a category 3 hurricane near Cedar Key.
02:03 That's category 3 between 100 and 129 miles per hour. So 111 to 129 miles per hour.
02:11 It could even get a little stronger than that and by the way this track then puts
02:15 all of the west coast of Florida in the right front quadrant, the worst part of
02:19 the storm, Christina. Yeah and that is bad news for millions of people here so
02:24 we're going to keep a close eye on this storm and the impacts. Let me show you
02:27 those impacts as we get through the next few days here, really all the way to
02:31 Friday. Look at the big band of yellow and orange extending through Florida
02:36 back to Georgia and the Carolinas as well. If you live in Virginia Beach,
02:40 Wilmington, Savannah, Charleston, Hilton Head, you are not exempt from these
02:44 impacts. You could see some or even moderate impacts to lives and property
02:48 but the bullseye is right around Cedar Key. That's where we have high and even
02:52 extreme risks to lives and property with flooding, with wind, with severe weather
02:58 and with storm surge. I have to get into storm surge. Common misconception and
03:03 easy to understand why winds are so heavily focused on when it comes to this
03:08 system. Don't get me wrong, winds themselves can be damaging or even
03:12 deadly but storm surge is by far and away the biggest killer when it comes
03:17 to these tropical systems. Remember, six inches of water is all it takes to knock
03:21 over a fully grown adult. Two feet of water can carry away most vehicles
03:25 including larger trucks. Storm surge can rise up to 20 feet or even more with
03:32 certain systems. Now with Edalia, we're looking at storm surge in cities like
03:36 Cedar Key in that six to ten foot range, even ten to fifteen feet locally
03:41 possible and why don't you think about that for a second. For example, I am a
03:45 grand total of five feet and two inches tall. If we get ten feet of storm surge,
03:50 that's a good five feet above my head. A wall of water five feet above my head.
03:55 That is intense and it's no wonder it can be deadly. Even in cities like Tampa,
04:00 we're honing in on that storm surge potential of three to six feet. This is
04:04 not like what we saw with Hurricane Ian last year where Tampa really didn't see
04:07 that surge. They had an offshore flow. Well, on the flip side, we could see
04:11 pretty much the exact opposite this time as we look into a major city like
04:15 Tampa, Florida. Also looking at major rainfall here. So on top of the storm
04:20 surge flooding, we have rainfall and more flooding possible even as we head
04:23 up the coast back through Georgia and into the Carolinas, Wilmington,
04:28 Kill Devil Hills out towards Savannah and Charleston. You have the potential
04:31 to see four to eight inches of rain Tampa right on that area of two to four
04:35 and as we head down toward Cape Coral, for example, looking more in that one
04:38 to two inch area. Now, in terms of severe weather, also a potential here,
04:42 we have to look at that threat of tornadoes in that northeast quadrant,
04:46 the strongest, most damaging section of the storm. That friction helps to
04:50 create some wind shear, a major ingredient with tornadoes and quick
04:53 spin ups, I would say, are not just a possibility, but a given with a storm
04:56 like Italia Tampa again, you're gonna have major impacts here, not just
05:00 Tuesday and Wednesday with rain as the first bands of the storm come in. But
05:03 even Thursday, we're looking at more of the same with some thunderstorms
05:07 across the peninsula of florida. Stay safe and stay with us here on AccuWeather
05:10 as we track the storm.
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