- 1 year ago
As BRICS expands into Southeast Asia, this episode unpacks how ASEAN nations are balancing new opportunities with old alliances in a shifting global order.
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00:00This is Dialogue ASEAN 25 with me, Nailah Huda, and on this edition, we want to take another closer look at another block, BRICS, that's increasingly gaining traction in Southeast Asia, with Indonesia joining in as a full member, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam as partners.
00:25We're looking at the region carefully navigating the currents of a changing world order, but what's actually driving this region toward BRICS and what's actually at stake?
00:36On this episode, we want to take a look at how the economic and strategic stakes are behind this shift, what's actually driving this engagement between ASEAN member states and BRICS,
00:47and we want to look at how Southeast Asia is balancing ambition with caution at the global stage.
00:54And to help us unpack some of these key questions, we have joining us Anielo Iannone, Lecturer in Indonesian and Southeast Asian Politics at the Department of Political Science and Government at Diponegoro University.
01:05We have joining us as well, Dr Venkata Chalam Anbu Mozi, Senior Economist and the Director of Research Strategy and Innovations at the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia.
01:16And also joining us, Dr Radityo Dharmaputra, Lecturer at the Department of International Relations, Faculty of Social and Political Science, Universitas Aerilangga.
01:25Thank you so much to all our panelists joining us today.
01:28Perhaps we can start off with Dr Radityo.
01:31Dr Radityo, we want to look at the bigger picture of why BRICS and why now?
01:36What do you think BRICS actually offers to ASEAN member states that they don't already get from existing multilateral platforms, Radityo?
01:46Thank you so much, Nayla, for the invitation.
01:50And a very interesting question, what BRICS offer and why now?
01:55I think it's very interesting to see BRICS as a sign of status.
02:00So there are countries like Indonesia, for example, long touted as one of the leaders of the Global South, one of the founding members of ASEAN as well.
02:12But for quite a long time, analysts, scholars have said that Indonesia needs to grow out bigger than before.
02:23And I think BRICS provide that, especially for President Prabowo.
02:27For the other ASEAN countries, I think at the moment the world is now changing, right?
02:34This is not the same world compared to five, ten years ago.
02:39Now we have a stronger great power tension between the US and China.
02:45You have Russia.
02:46You have the EU.
02:48And I think BRICS is probably one way for these countries to try to grasp this kind of new world that they're facing now.
02:59This is no longer a bipolar world.
03:01This is not just a multipolar world.
03:04This is not only several countries, great powers competing against each other, but even within the so-called North and South or West and East, there are different interests, different countries with their own interests.
03:18And for these countries, for Indonesia, for Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and all other ASEAN members, they're trying to settle and trying to find their place here.
03:29And I think BRICS provide that opportunity, at least one way to look at it.
03:33And I'm sure there will be different views towards BRICS as well.
03:38But at least for Indonesia, I think this is very clear from Prabowo.
03:42This is one way to navigate the world at the moment, but also try to have a higher status for Indonesia.
03:50Anielo, you also recently wrote about ASEAN member states and their engagement with BRICS.
03:58And you were a bit more cautious, I would say.
04:01You questioned whether BRICS had anything new to offer, whether it's simply reinforcing new dependencies, as you mentioned.
04:09So what do you think BRICS actually has to offer ASEAN?
04:12Well, thank you for the question, actually. It's very interesting.
04:18But I think we need to start to understand that first, what is BRICS, and what is in a rhetorical level, please propose.
04:25BRICS propose an alternative narrative for liberal global order to dominate anti-nobody West.
04:31So it presents what? A by call for the emancipation of the global assault.
04:36At least this is the narrative that BRICS tell to us.
04:40So for many solicitation countries that actually they were in a systemic marginalization in the global decision making process,
04:47this is a very, you know, attractive opportunity for giving up.
04:53I mean, we are here, so we want to make sure we have the right to choose also in the global international order.
05:00Nevertheless, we need to also look at the structural level of the BRICS itself and what they offer.
05:07What they offer are a little in the true innovation for us, actually.
05:12It's not very huge innovation for us.
05:14The BRICS lacks in a stable bureaucracy compared to ASEAN.
05:18There is no binding charter charter in terms of formal dispute resolution mechanism.
05:26At least Aya has the charter.
05:29Or equal representation among the BRICS.
05:31So ASEAN, for this old imitation process,
05:34a consolidation of the architecture that BRICS actually don't have.
05:38In this now, it's just a narrative for the BRICS.
05:43And collective an ethos growing in the consuls.
05:47So the principle of ASEAN is very clear.
05:50Centrality, however, concerns reminds the platform of regional coordination,
05:56something that BRICS do not guarantee.
05:58So this is the very question of what Africa can offer.
06:02Actually, it's just until now rhetoric.
06:04In concrete, it is not too much.
06:06Actually, there's also some kind of stuff to be too much involved in an organization,
06:12like in a multilateralist like BRICS,
06:15and maybe, you know, make degenerate policy governance for us.
06:19So in the context, let me use this word of multipolarity disorder,
06:25where BRICS presents itself as alternative platform.
06:29International order still is structured around the Western normative
06:33and institutional economy.
06:34In terms of international relations perspective,
06:37if you may allow this,
06:39this provides not just a superior operational capacity compared to ASEAN,
06:44but promotes epistemological and geopolitical rapture.
06:48to challenge the universalism
06:51that is centered by the West perspective,
06:54the G7,
06:55and the dominance of, in terms of currency,
06:57the global, the US dollar.
07:01A lot of different views here,
07:03but Radityu, if you were to look at this within the wider context
07:07of other multilateral platforms,
07:09especially Western-led institutions,
07:11we know there's the G7, the IMF, the World Bank,
07:14and even the United Nations at large is now being questioned, right?
07:17Where do you see BRICS positioning itself?
07:20We've also just recently seen ASEAN having different sorts of summits.
07:26The ASEAN GCC China Summit, for example.
07:29Where do you think this fits in the bigger context of how the world order is shifting so fast right now?
07:38Yeah, I think this is a problem for BRICS, right?
07:41Where do you put BRICS amongst other organizations?
07:46Because, as Anielo mentioned before, even within BRICS there are differences, right?
07:51You have China and Russia, very different views probably compared to India,
07:55compared to Brazil.
07:56So even within BRICS, you cannot find one single narrative common to all members,
08:02especially after they enlarge the numbers of the members, right?
08:07Now you have Indonesia, you have Iran and others.
08:10So that's one thing.
08:11I think it's very difficult at the moment to see BRICS united as one organization
08:18and positioning itself in competition or in cooperation with others is very difficult.
08:25But at the same time, I think it's also very critical to look at each country's,
08:30or in this case, the Southeast Asian countries' views when they see BRICS.
08:36And Anielo mentioned before that it's seen as an alternative to the other institutions, right?
08:42To G7, to the other.
08:45I think at one point in Indonesia, for example, discourse inside Indonesia usually compared BRICS with the OECD
08:54as the opposite of OECD so that you have the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
09:01you have diplomats, you have scholars arguing that Indonesia still stays in the middle
09:06because we joined BRICS but also wants to join OECD.
09:10So you see that Indonesia positioning BRICS between or in opposite or, you know,
09:16in competition with OECD or, you know, as a different organization.
09:20But to be honest, again, if you compare it with the other, the other institution,
09:25BRICS, again, just quoting Anielo before, they don't have internal mechanism similar to OECD, for example.
09:32If you look at BRICS, I would rather pursue some BRICS in terms of geopolitics,
09:39probably very similar to how G7 functions, like the elite club of several countries.
09:47Now getting larger, not only five original members, between 10 and 11 at the moment.
09:57But still, it's very, it's an elite club claiming to say that they are representative of the global south,
10:04of the developing countries.
10:06So you see that they're in opposition to this kind of Western liberal orders, G7 especially there.
10:15And you look at how President Prabowo, for example, from Indonesia, when he visited BRICS summit
10:23and before that visited Russia, at the same time did not attend the invitation from Canada to visit, to join the G7 meeting.
10:33That would send a signal that at that point, there is this narrative that positioning BRICS on the opposition of the Western liberal orders,
10:45which is G7 is the most prominent, especially in geopolitical terms.
10:50Economic terms would be very different.
10:52I think the other speaker could probably talk about it more, but in geopolitical terms,
10:58you can see that it is seen as an alternative, trying to balance the West, especially the dominance of G7.
11:09And now we have BRICS with the elite, the elite countries of the global south.
11:16No, it's apparent that each ASEAN member state has their own different way of trying to achieve this balancing act between great power rivalry.
11:25Dr. Ambo Mozi, we want to look specifically at some of the recent moves taken by ASEAN member states,
11:32looking at Indonesia choosing full membership in BRICS and then Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam opting for partner status in BRICS.
11:42What do you think drives this sort of differentiated engagement for the different ASEAN countries?
11:48Dr. Ambo Mozi, Yes, most of the countries have their own national interest and national narratives for joining the global governance architecture.
12:01Dr. Ambo Mozi, Yes, and in this regard, you see that BRICS is a kind of an alternative mechanisms that is coming out of this Washington consensus.
12:14So when this G20 was formulated and why, and where most of the things here in this region only that is,
12:22only that is a uh indonesia was the member of g20 in the southeast asia only one country
12:28that is representing the southeast asia are representing a small and incised economies in
12:35this region so it is not given when indonesia is becoming a member of the g20 as a kind of elite
12:43group bringing the global balance for the emerging economies it is natural for indonesia to be
12:49identified as a part of that new new mechanism that is a breaks but on the other hand if you
12:55look into the other countries the malaysia and thailand and and also things they are still
13:00emerging out and and so they need to find that uh plus and minuses and the cost for joining that
13:07group here they don't find much incentives other than like like what we're what indonesia has seen
13:14it and it comes back to the previous one and this this architecture is also the global governance
13:22architecture particularly the economic governance architecture is evolving and and so for for the
13:29for the countries for the southeast asia or for african union and being united together brings a kind
13:37of a balance they can match with these other emerging economies like like china and india and russia and
13:46south africa and so it makes a sense for them and and to be a part of the group but at the same time
13:53they also wanted to be a kind of a distance they are come to they wanted to wait and see approaches how
14:00it will be evolving um a lot of things to unpack there and um if you were to look at perhaps
14:08indonesia's uh situation just specifically in indonesia's choice to choose full membership in brics
14:16obviously a lot of people are talking about the risk or the threat of retaliatory terrorists as
14:21well from the us um president donald trump himself has threatened that any country siding with
14:29bricks will be faced with higher tariff rates but of course it's not as simple as that as
14:34what we're seeing with different tariff rates for indonesia for vietnam and malaysia um aniello what
14:39do you make of this is this a threat that should be taken seriously should some of these member states
14:44perhaps rethink their decision um and what does this say about you know that the state of the world
14:50really this sort of retaliation that's so direct yeah thank you the i mean the question
14:57touches the center dilemma facing by the global south and also the also the asian uh member so
15:04to what happened if you is uh the possibility to diversify access to cooperation without no creating
15:10or dragging you know enemy mechanism from hegemony powers like us so the answer for my perspective
15:17does not lie in the statistic cost benefit alone but uh is there inside the mechanism of historical
15:24structure evolution of opposition that the countries like indonesia occupy in the world system so in my
15:30view the benefit for full big membership in this case for indonesia but also malaysia i think uh next
15:35year when the if we finish the as a channel might be things to joy also based in this point the
15:41the diplomatic diplomatic visibility privilege access to know the new develop bank and participation in the
15:47post-western global native are symbolical as we can in the structure limited this what create
15:54constitute a form of geopolitical like uh uh radical political capital and you know uh in in in in
16:01in that cost indonesia international deputation because when we look at the you know foreign policy
16:08or as i'm kind of needed to you took a two level one is prospective foreign policy to outside and the
16:13the narrative inside so the narrative inside in public perspective is very important what does
16:17it mean then the perspective is probably a position itself like indonesia positions as a mind actor
16:23no more like a middle power but not to the effect the state of law the sovereignty to be passed in
16:28international order is a narrative inside the domestic parties that what reflects i choose to be passed
16:34towards i mean i mean to choose one big and choose one block because for me it might be interested to see
16:40i'm indonesia i can't deal with some emerging power like china and the russia so conservative what is
16:47the risk uh yeah it can be like you say you know the tariff war started by uh the the the the the u the
16:54u.s uh uh uh administration but the first risk of the combination for traditional state partners
17:01might be interpreted as a format unlimited with bridge geopolitical statement so what does it mean we are in a
17:08period in a period in an era of supply chain where a classic political design that is deployed as
17:14instrument or strategic cooperation so this dependency indonesia who is remind a very uh you know deeply
17:23integrated with in the in the western market and until now could be exposed and is exposed uh in the in
17:30the external but uh you know uh you know water it might be difficult to be absorbed so now for some
17:38football is trying to negotiate this this this kind of aspect the second leaks this sorry the second risk
17:45very important then i saw is alternative dividends uh dependency what does it mean that we stay away a
17:53dependency from the west but we not forgot that also bricks might be the vehicle of dependency what does it
17:59mean this time the vis-a-vis with china why hold a dominant position with bricks because this yeah
18:06is uh it's not like european union with more or less very power as you know balance some kind of
18:12governance might be consequences uh problematic for some kind for example china or choose policy might be
18:18prominent for india and for brexit or india for china so it's not very it's not very a good balance in
18:25bricks for five so far from being a space of shared power at least there is a core a current configuration
18:32what does it mean the mechanism for exception the chinese influence is not present until now in bricks
18:38say china i speak about china because china is the mind in term of comedy of my power in index so
18:45in to your standpoint they might face uh the two hegemonish without you know counterways where you know you
18:52have a domination of uh one in the country in term of economy and power military and so on and you
18:59have you know some kind of asian country they are become part of but just you know um a hunt without
19:06being really uh part of the bricks just part of you know in a concept uh of uh of the departure but no
19:14are not in the in the in the in the great i just you know face and just your face so we have
19:20us and carry bricks but they are not be passed completely in the process of bricks i don't
19:24know if you make any sense in terms of but yeah it's a mistake which one or there is the two the two
19:28bricks one from outside the west one is the coffee break time and after this is your okay sorry dr
19:36anbu if you can mute your audio for a while it's just straight sorry anielo if you want to finish your
19:42point yeah so i mean in conclusion maybe she has the own value but in indonesia i because now she's the
19:48only one candidate that is a full membership this might be to you know challenge to me to
19:54imbalance in the global dependency also it's becoming it might be the mind i mean my point of view
20:00the mic problematic uh risk for part of bricks uh radityo some any thoughts on some of these threats and
20:07do you think these threats will continue to grow or escalate as um this block continues to solidify
20:14continues to strengthen yeah so i think i think it is it is especially if you talk about the coming
20:23from the us for example uh at this moment i don't think anyone knows what what the what donald trump
20:31will do in the other uh negotiations of the tariff right uh he threatened uh bricks member with uh
20:40an extra 10 percent tough but even even with that trust uh we don't know whether that would happen
20:47whether whether part of the negotiation is talking about that at all so but because of that because
20:53we don't know what he would he would he would do and what he would say i think the the the inherent
21:00problem with the current situation this kind of tension between bricks and the other uh let's say with
21:06the west uh especially with the us uh especially with the us not only with the us but also with with
21:12european union uh it's it's i think it's it will continue especially with the inclusions or with more
21:23revisionist countries or so-called revisionist countries inside bricks we know for example uh in this
21:29case russia it's very clear uh the the tension between russia and the west with the us or in
21:36most cases with with the european union which means in the in in the in the future there will be
21:42a problem between bricks member probably especially with when bricks follows uh the russian russian
21:50narrative or as uh follow what russia wants from bricks there is also uh the case of iran in inside
21:58bricks we know that there are uh conflict just couple of uh months ago or last month between iran and
22:05israel and then you have the the us also inserting uh itself into that conflict so you have different
22:13members of brick and the problem at the moment is that all the all the outsiders outside of bricks
22:19especially the countries big countries tends to look at bricks as one kind of with with this
22:27lenses of an anti-western the brings is 90 western uh block even even within bricks you know we we can
22:35see that there are differences but we cannot control or indonesia for example and member
22:40bricks member cannot control the the perceptions of the outside uh you know countries outside bricks
22:48their perception towards this is very different so so because the the threat uh the problems will
22:55probably continue and there are ways to to mitigate that there are especially for countries in
23:02southeast asia that most of them do not want a tension between the west and bricks uh indonesia for
23:12example already or president brabo said rhetorically at least he doesn't want any conflict between
23:20the bricks or the u.s uh the way that indonesia or president brabo tries to deal with the u.s
23:27try to see you know sign the deal with the european union with france there are efforts uh and then we
23:34can we can we can talk about later how uh this threat can be mitigated but i i agree with any others
23:41you know with answering your questions again this this will continue especially when you add more members
23:48towards bricks bricks itself become more uh fragmented yeah inside but from outside uh we
23:56cannot blame the the you know the european union uh donald trump and the u.s looking at bricks and
24:02see that there are china because china and russia and iran is there or they are there and they are
24:08trying to look at it as uh an anti-western uh you know organization yeah it really is not as
24:15homogenous there are really differentiated um stances and engagements among each brics member um
24:22um dr ambu mozi i understand that you have to leave soon but um if you can just um address one
24:28question very quickly dr ambu mozi if you're still with us i'm not sure if he's still with us i think
24:34he's frozen um okay he has already left unfortunately um he had to leave um it's okay we'll just proceed
24:41with our discussion um a lot of interesting points there um just quickly anya lo uh your thoughts on
24:48the the the different stances within each bricks member i know we're supposed to focus on um aSEAN
24:54specifically but just to quickly look at bricks um do you think this will become its strength
24:59potentially if it's supposed to be you know this sort of alternative to western-led institutions um
25:05you know you would think that it proposes a sort of different uh power dynamic or hierarchy or it's
25:11supposed to celebrate a little bit of diversity but um do you think that this then poses a little
25:16bit of problem to the unity of bricks much like um you know how a lot of people point out um this
25:21concern of the aSEAN unity that that has become a sort of central question especially this year um
25:27and with bricks as well do you think that would become a sort of achilles heel you know trying to
25:33unite a lot of its different um positions within bricks okay so um let's start it um probably uh if i
25:45understand your question you know if the you know as i have this cooperation might be a problem for
25:50as a centrality yeah uh i mean yes for me yes uh the the answer is why it become a problem because in
25:59one of the risks is the the less of originalist autonomy that might be created if there is too much
26:07involved with the bricks because as i tell you before there is a very very huge difference between
26:13bricks and asia asia house uh was created as a you know historically uh concept of peace i was
26:20it is very different and this might create you know one of the risks one of the risks is you know the
26:24less of original autonomy so that so a different asia this cooperation might be percent strategic
26:31you know paradox for us and country so in one hand it could be you know in uh make a relationship
26:38critical relevance as ready to say in uh increase a multi-polarity word in other hand there is of
26:45under my the very fundamental of the historical media so the the the dissenting actor so the internal
26:53cooperation the net neutrality so the asia like uh uh no interference a diplomatic centrality this might be
27:01on the also on the wrist might be compromised by the ammonia as a bespoke at least in my point of
27:07view so in theory uh uh great asian engaging with bricks could serve a you know a bike up to protect
27:13the original uh position but influence the global development again that include people to the
27:18construction of a new alternative economy order also through the you know the new incentive it creates
27:26you know some kind of uh uh you know uh let's say um uh namacy with uh with uh us with the new value
27:37against the juice dollar nevertheless this perfect scenario depends on two conditions this is the one
27:45that the enforcers includes asian so the reform and inclusive big story and the second one is a
27:52i could see this more strategically international asia and for the point two actually need to be
27:58briefing itself again because asia is still stuck in some point in the 20s ago there's not really some
28:04probably also in the asian mechanism side so might be changing some perspective or so the merit the
28:09thought uh for good point point so the more immediate risk is that the deeper uh deeper things with
28:16bricks might be uh you know uh uh create um com a more india as a fermentation yes uh evident in the
28:26dimension in the approach of the membership because indonesia are interested to be part of uh of uh you
28:32know bricks but maybe admiration man vietnam and thailand i don't know vietnam is to my interest to be part
28:39of this yeah because you know some kind of also very conflict with china thailand for days the thailand
28:46approach of foreign policy completely different from malaysia for foreign policy might be no different
28:50or might be in the part to be spot on or not and when so what so when other countries by my start to
28:56negotiate individual uh rather than as a block access entirety might be lose the uh the bergaming so what
29:06is the question i mean it's the the level of uh egging malaysia for example do egging very well in
29:12terms of you know foreign policy uh in this perspective uh uh in indonesia might to you know
29:17rethink or might to change in the engagement with the with that diversity to with the bricks so the
29:24foreign policy is very fluid in the in the in this in the in this level now so moreover bricks and
29:31everything so maybe ridiculous say something more bricks institutional uh institutional structure still
29:39have a informant and not basing system symmetric representation so does not engage in regional blocks
29:46as only only as a one unified uh entities but interest with individual nation states so in
29:55time of time of government this fluid this is a maybe fluid logic and let me see uh uh competitive
30:04bilaterals let's say uh competitive bilaterals there is inside a platform of pro of proclamation of
30:12multilaterals so in this context you put asia the asia centrality is by passing by uh empowerment
30:21in the worst scenario so yeah maybe uh i think you will say something more about this
30:38um yeah um i don't want to quickly return to the question of threats uh ready to you you mentioned
30:54some of these risks and threats can be mitigated how do you think asian should navigate this sort of
31:01delicate balancing act without having to you know face the wrath of tariffs or i don't know what else
31:07trump could pull out of his pockets but how do you think this balancing act should be played out
31:13i think one way to to certainly indonesia has a chance as a as a as the only at the moment the only uh
31:23saudi asian brics uh members where the others are partners at the moment but this is the indonesia
31:28has a chance to form a a let's say the non-anti-western uh members of brics so we have brazil right we have
31:38brazil uh that just uh finished the the brick summit in rio brazil has a very different views
31:46compared to what russia and china has been doing in brics uh we have india right we have india we have
31:54brazil other countries inside brics might have a similar or closer positions on many issues to
32:02indonesia and other countries in the south asia uh the the challenge is there because there are two
32:08big countries the the the the so-called revisionist big countries inside brics that seems to from outside
32:16perspective at least seems to direct the the the you know the the future trajectory of brics
32:24but so so south asian countries indonesia malaysia all the other partners of brics here
32:31might then promote the agenda that actually try to bridge this uh you know global south and the west
32:41instead of following only uh the the bigger countries like china and russia i think i think
32:48there is a a way in terms of you know building solidarity with brazil with india with uh i think
32:57the other countries uh egypt so you know there are other brics members outside of the the two big uh
33:04powers there but the problem with trying to build that is now you have to ask the the asian member states
33:10whether they actually want to do that because uh at the moment they're not really working in unison
33:16as anielu mentioned right all the other all these asian members said they deal with it you know
33:22case by case uh individually indonesia uh instead of using asian and bricks to you know to deal with
33:30the us indonesia went there alone vietnam deal with us alone uh and then they have we have uh you know
33:37bilateral negotiation with trump even probably personal negotiation with president trump for
33:43example probable and trump and then we got a deal that deal is probably very different for indonesia
33:49and for vietnam and for the other asian members so so there is a problem uh that i i still think we
33:57we can mitigate that by moving as a as a coordinated uh asian uh so strategy in bricks you know trying to
34:07to also engage with the other powers there but as i said before the problem is that we did we do not
34:14move as one you know uh coordination uh asian led mechanism there it's just individual member states uh
34:23trying to deal with uh trying to deal with uh the us and i think that as i agree with aniel that weakens
34:30this asian centrality if only they try to to look at to look at it as an asian members instead of as
34:37individuals but probably it's very difficult at the moment because now we we didn't even touch how each
34:43country's view asian could could be very different president brabo at the moment look at asian in a very
34:50different way compared to president jokowi and before you know the other indonesian uh president
34:54before um there was this talk about to the you know the competing sons inside the inside asian between
35:02indonesia and malaysia and there is always this kind of narrative that asian is not really um in one
35:09voice especially regarding to bricks and i think that weakens uh our bargaining position um i think anielo
35:18wrote a very distinct and excellent article about that asian centrality will be you know diminished
35:23because asian would just be a symbol you know uh because we are part of breaks and the other
35:29countries in especially the great powers will say yeah we invited all of you guys here but uh we don't
35:35have the voice so so that is the challenge now we can be we can mitigate it by working together i i would
35:42still argue um i think there have may have been attempts to sort of coordinate this united front i
35:50think um as chair of asian uh prime minister anwar ibrahim has um tried or attempted to um send a
35:58letter to president trump this was before the the recent announcement um in representing the whole of
36:03the bloc in trying to negotiate um the tariffs as one united front but um as you said the the responses from
36:12just within asian has been a little bit um i guess lukewarm there there hasn't been a lot of um you
36:18know uh i guess cooperation there um anielo your thoughts on this um i guess radityu is a bit on the
36:28optimistic side in saying that you know cooperation coordination is the key to meet mitigating some of
36:34these threats but if push comes to shove do you think that um you know more instability
36:41uncertainty more retaliation and i guess the side effects from this great power rivalry if it
36:48comes to shove do you think that aSEAN will be forced to work together in trying to work together
36:53either within the aSEAN framework or the BRICS framework or in trying to negotiating this this
36:59tariffs what do you think it would take to i guess develop a more united front anielo
37:05well personally i the first question is uh has to be asked them be united before or not
37:14and then my question be you know but uh maybe the the question and i think the question is the um
37:20the head of the structural condition now in certification uh rachel is uh defining the start today i mean
37:28is how to perceive strategic autonomy in the end and it's an international system where in where in we
37:37are in uh international system is in crisis you know uh in the logic of the west versus BRICS so um
37:47my point of view uh the answer is not to avoid uh uh uh you know uh aliment um uh sorry
37:57uh uh uh let's say uh sorry i forgot the word in english uh use indonesian as well i believe
38:08we might all understand uh uh uh uh uh ally uh uh uh uh i mean uh uh uh sorry but i can't say
38:17but to but to reformulate into opposed people of uh terms what does i mean in other uh terms the
38:26challenge is not to remain neutral but to you know create a form of autonomous
38:32today's position this actually is going to do in the
38:35information now that is selective so as an
38:39country must become you know the archive of this own
38:43position not merely arbitrary but in systemic
38:48fashion this means to create a more centrality
38:51the question is the profession of arson in a second is different
38:55i mean filipina and philippines has their own
38:58idea of asia it's not really regarded to ascentitis but they more look on foreign
39:02policy for us singapore maybe maybe it's the only country
39:06in asia and they believe in a centrality the other after a rational after they
39:10think they they do maximum to maximize their own
39:13interest malaysia now malaysia is a very important
39:17rule i guess because uh with anwar might be you know the
39:21breach might be connected to the theory to practice
39:24but might be seeing challenge a prospect because asian
39:28uh in term of united my uh we we can speak a lot about asian way
39:34and asian united now so maybe it's a story for the time
39:39so there is i mean a three core problem for me in this question so the
39:44transformation of balance into strategy agency agency
39:48and we now see uh in the you know the uh
39:53oscillating between china and us so it's no longer sufficient for some
39:58countries so uh asians must be shipped to uh into a
40:03defensive posture to practice it
40:06um sorry consciousness of original autonomy
40:11uh what are they present they said not as you know
40:15just a player in international order but the
40:18the uh the advocacy or the old global
40:21governance agenda so if the this is the you know the uh the united
40:26the second point is institutionalized
40:29institutionalistic sorry institutionalism uh multi-positionality
40:33what does it mean so this and there is uh contradictory about uh the
40:38participation in multi-global platform so asia
40:41might participate in bricks but can uh asia now participate in g20 for
40:46example or in other society so provide this clarity is
40:49coordinated through a principle of international normative uh
40:53cause if asian state should you know
40:56start to establish a common framework that until now asia don't have
41:02so uh in the u.s and this is uh about giving
41:04institutionalized shape to accessibility
41:09among the drift into different implementation of asian
41:12and the second the third point i think the the
41:15important one is to make a collective agenda real
41:20because and then now uh it's just on you know in the in the dialogue
41:24aspect but it's not concretely real so the real challenge is both
41:27political and symbolic is to
41:29being uh uh you know uh a really concrete uh uh
41:34agency asian must be you know uh
41:38must be active as a asian because if you were now to think that
41:43every country in asia might to be just as a single state like
41:46i have to say it's not as mentality so what does it mean that
41:50and this is very very uh dangerous the my interest of some country in asia might be
41:55full membership might be in contradiction with other countries are not part of asia but
42:00a part of bricks so it becomes problematic in this perspective so just to figure out the
42:05situation for example indonesia as kind of agency might be problematic for singapore there's no part
42:10of bricks so it might be also problematic in the in this perspective so a common narrative uh
42:17uh might is is is is is is needed not for asian no buffer zombie between powers to be not be stuck in the
42:25end the moral normative center between as a multiple multiple poly poly uh uh multiple at the
42:33multiple that is my sorry i'm going to be a bit of a and uh yeah um it's uh in conclusion i mean it's the
42:42challenging in the when you are going to you know to deal with the great powers now to be too so in
42:47this perspective in indonesia is the only one and this is my personal opinion that i choose one block
42:54not just in them of uh you know deny or uh the not in terms of policy but choose one block choose one
43:04view of the world is a narrative strong especially when come from you know the major candidacy so uh we're
43:12going to see a lot of stuff in the coming days for sure for sure no you mentioned a lot of really
43:18critical and interesting points there you talked about um sort of developing this common framework
43:24about um crafting this sort of collective agenda that's still missing that's still lacking in the
43:30aSEAN framework um ready to your thoughts on this um you know there's a lot of thought talk about
43:37carving this third way in global politics and you know some people some scholars are looking to
43:44aSEAN to breaks um the gcc china cooperation uh there's been a lot of examples for this but
43:51at the end of the day it does boil down to incentive to um or political will really of these aSEAN
43:59member states and whether they really want to you know develop this sort of united front this collective
44:05agenda um looking at i guess the leadership the current leadership in aSEAN and i guess some of
44:12the internal issues that they're currently faced with i mean just looking at the myanmar crisis is
44:17already um still a predicament and still a very thorny issue for a lot of aSEAN member states um do you
44:27think it is possible to sort of develop this collective agenda this this common framework
44:35i mean in my previous answer i seems to be more optimistic as she said but looking at the looking
44:42at the real uh situation at the moment looking at how for example how president probable the indonesian
44:48president you know as the largest uh aSEAN the only g20 members and so on uh the way he looked at
44:56aSEAN the way he just you know he didn't attend some of the me or indonesian representatives didn't
45:02attend some of the meeting the way that probable look beyond aSEAN for for recognition for and for
45:08status it is very difficult to just you know to bring him back now he get the taste of you know
45:14meeting with trump well not yet meeting with trump meeting with putin uh meeting with all the leaders
45:22uh you know outside of aSEAN and it is i think will be very difficult to convince him or indonesia
45:30to just you know go back to the roots and deal with with other asian members uh you mentioned a
45:36myanmar crisis uh now there is a there is a real conflict bro just broke up in us it just broke out in
45:43asia right at the moment and that is actually a a chance for other countries you know just to look
45:50at us and to you know to for asian members to just look inside instead of just you know instead of aiming
45:57uh bigger maybe just start from the basic that we managed to to deal with this conflict before in the
46:04in the 80s in the 90s now we need to go back to that route instead of going up there because it is
46:11at the moment i think it's very difficult to see that anwar uh prime minister anwar and and uh you
46:18know uh and malaysia's chairman i think it's very crucial but the problem with with with this uh
46:26with all the effort that that uh already tried is that the other part here is probable right so if you
46:34can if you can combine malaysia and indonesia working together uh inside asia that could probably move
46:40us uh into one position at least uh to some extent but at the moment it's not working in that sense
46:50in that direction so that would be a challenge i would be more pessimistic especially trying to
46:55convince uh president brabo you know to just go back to us and not going out there first and then
47:02just try to have this common framework that anielo mentioned inside us uh not not not even mentioning
47:10common framework when we deal with bricks for example that would be the step the next step but
47:16just common framework inside especially with the the great power tensions each members have their own
47:23views and without anyone uh to you know just to unite the the asian countries again i i appreciate what
47:35malaysia uh are already done especially during the germanship but the the problem is lies in the other
47:43partners uh or the other members of us at the moment and i'm sorry to say that i i'm more pessimistic to
47:49look at indonesia but it's at the moment because indonesia seems to be you know trying to get beyond
47:54us and try to you know more active there outside uh i i haven't heard any words at least coming from
48:02the from the indonesian government about the current situation between cambodia and and you know uh and
48:09thailand for example that's that's also this this problem right so so i think that would be the next step
48:15uh if we cannot even uh deal with something inside then how come we have one framework outside when
48:25we are dealing with bricks again ideally as i mentioned before i would love us to work as one
48:31united front in bricks because that would bring a very different narrative to break different flavor
48:38other countries other partners already trust have some trust in asean uh trying to bring more asian
48:44centrality but again it is very difficult uh and probably more utopian looking at the at the
48:50situation at the moment inside us and with all the problems not to mention the domestic problems of
48:56all members at the moment right we are now coming close to an hour and to the end of our session today
49:04and radityu has already shifted his view from a very optimistic one to a slightly lesser optimistic view
49:10um but anello some of your thoughts on this um about i guess focusing on our own backyard first before
49:18um you know positing our view towards the rest of the world um what do you think are some of the more
49:24pressing issues that aSEAN should focus on right now well my personal overview of this it will be very
49:32very very pessimistic compared to uh because i think that as i can start um 19 maybe is still uh in that
49:41level and then the the proof is the map the myanmar crisis now so until now it is a very uh shame there
49:50is no even an organism in us that can speak about human rights without be put in the in the in the no in
49:58in the in way because we have the human rights as a uh uh character but it's not it's just a voice
50:05nobody cares about the what would they say it's the truly the the the the wrote truly about this that
50:11i said don't let any kind of organism it might be uh uh no deal with crisis human humanitarian crisis
50:18the other question is are as an interest to do that the answer is no because i said do not it's not
50:24it was not great it was not great to really be done issue but in the same time the uh all the all the
50:30architecture of satisfaction is change so what is not change is awesome so uh the question why us
50:37is not change is uh you know it's a it's a question it's a question of it we can speak until tomorrow
50:43and probably we will be getting the answer but until now i think also for the leader for anwar and the
50:50the next one is to create a new kind of charter for asia there is educate a new charter more or more
50:58with with an organism i don't speak to to i don't say to we need to say like you know because it's very
51:05different competition but my business organism they might speak for the asset community because the
51:12other issue is the perspective for us in domestic level there is no perspective answer because if you
51:18speak with the local people probably don't know what is essential perspective so the other the asset
51:22identity they also be created which is very very issue now so and this might be a very problematic
51:29if too much uh engage with weeks might be a challenge so the first one is to focus on my mark
51:36to create an organism that might speak with the junta the second one is to rethink asia uh in a new
51:42level and to create a new charter for asia um raditio do you agree do you think we have reached that
51:50critical juncture where asia needs to rethink its charter its identity
51:56one way probably yes but i would i would look at it in a you know just just move or just do the the
52:05simple thing first i i agree that that that might be discussed as well but i think it's it's even it's even
52:12more difficult probably then as anielo mentioned it's probably more difficult to just you know
52:17discuss what asian would mean forward but at the moment uh again uh myanmar is one thing the which
52:27would be very complicated it's been years since asian managed to do anything uh if at all can do
52:34something there but now there is this cambodia uh thailand uh the the first or after many years
52:43like a war or a conflict like you know violent conflict broke up in in in southeast asia and we
52:49had the we had the experience of dealing with that before i think indonesia was uh part of the the you
52:56you know when when when when we tried to mediate between vietnam and cambodia back in back you know
53:0230 years ago so that would be a challenge uh we had the asian had the the the experience indonesia
53:12had the experience uh to to mitigate that or to mediate the conflict inside asia uh and this is between
53:19countries so it is in principle should be uh in comparison with with the case in myanmar it would
53:27be easier because it's you know it's within members of asian and then it happened before so it's it should
53:35be a challenge for indonesia but again uh and malaysia as well because as the chairman of asian you
53:40you know there is a way to to try to mediate this but so if that even so if asian cannot even do that
53:48let alone finish you know trying to do something in myanmar then it means that we are at the critical
53:54juncture and we need to think about it uh asian always always um being you know present as this kind
54:03of you know zone of peace you know no more conflict between countries that's the idea since the
54:10since the 60s when in the beginning of asian there are a lot of conflicts between countries in
54:15southern asia before asian and now joining asian no more conflict again if if we cannot even solve
54:22the interstate conflict in asian we cannot even talk about interstate conflict in in in myanmar so
54:30what is asian then uh so that would be a very i think that would need a very different dialogue
54:36because that means asian i mean countries inside south asia might look outside asia to just you know
54:44to solve their own problems why should we trust still in asian when you cannot even
54:49do something when you have wars when you have conflict inside or between countries and inside
54:54countries in the south asia thank you a lot of very critical um and interesting points raised
55:02there thank you so much to radityo and anielo for joining us and also to uh dr anbu mozi for
55:07joining us earlier but had to uh leave us um thank you so much to all our panelists anielo uh
55:12dr anbu mozi dr radityo for joining us on dialogue asian 25 today unpacking um some very key
55:18critical questions um of course not just looking at bricks as an alternative uh framework but also
55:23looking at some critical questions about asian and whether we've reached that critical juncture to
55:29question some of its central features and its identity uh thank you once again for joining us on
55:33dialogue asian 25 that's all for today with me nah lauda we'll catch you another time
55:48um
55:53uh
55:55uh
55:57uh
55:59uh
56:01uh
56:03uh
56:05uh
56:09uh
56:11uh
56:13uh