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  • 11 months ago
Seth and Sean take a look at the stats and odds to assess if Will Anderson Jr. can make a run for Defensive Player of the Year this season.

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00:00And can Will Anderson make a run at Defensive Player of the Year?
00:04Kind of a weird question coming off of a game where Daniil Hunter was actually the star of the show.
00:08He had three-and-a-half sacks, but the odds board has Will Anderson right now,
00:13who's been the more consistent player over the course of the season.
00:17The odds board has him fifth right now, Seth, at 10-to-1 to win Defensive Player of the Year.
00:23It's interesting because if you look at, I mean, for one, sacks,
00:25obviously that three-and-a-half sack performance helped Daniil Hunter out a lot.
00:30Daniil Hunter is a half sack ahead of Will Anderson right now.
00:34And when it comes to PFF scores, this is where I'm grateful to PFF scores at times
00:39because when a guy doesn't have a boatload of sacks,
00:42Daniil and Will respectively are seventh and tenth.
00:47Sacks will tell the whole story by a long shot.
00:50But on PFF scores, Will and Daniil are fifth and sixth respectively.
00:54So that takes everything into account.
00:57And Pat, you know, pressure rate, run, yeah, the whole thing.
01:02Unfortunately for the awards, the sacks matter heavy because there's a bunch of writers voting for it.
01:06Right, right.
01:07Yeah, but the writers increasingly are trying to look at the whole picture more.
01:11So, you know.
01:11Yep, they are.
01:12Here are the names that are ahead of Will Anderson right now.
01:15And the question is, can he make a run at Defensive Player of the Year?
01:17And if you recall, his run at Defensive Rookie of the Year a couple years ago came very late.
01:22Jalen Carter was the heavy favorite for most of the season.
01:26And then Will Anderson came back from an ankle injury for the last few games of the year
01:30and put together a really nice end of the season in 2023.
01:34And meanwhile, the Eagles were falling off horrendously.
01:38Yes.
01:38So that, like, the team's success and the perception of your defense helps a lot.
01:43Big time.
01:43And that's probably helping keep Will in the mix here right now with these names.
01:48Miles Garrett is the favorite on an absolutely horrible team, but a pretty good defense.
01:53And he's Miles Garrett.
01:54Plus 140, which means you've got to risk 100 to win 140.
01:57He's like one and a half to one.
01:59Micah Parsons is second at three to one.
02:02He's had a good year for Green Bay up there since getting traded.
02:05And that's a nice narrative, too.
02:07Like, oh, Green Bay picks up Micah Parsons.
02:09Micah needs Green Bay to go on a little bit of a run here to get the award, I think.
02:13They're in a bit of a rut right now.
02:15Aiden Hutchinson, five to one.
02:17He's on a good team.
02:18He's a good player.
02:18Everybody loves him.
02:19Nick Benito, who the Texans just saw two weeks ago, seven and a half to one.
02:24And then there's Will Anderson.
02:27Because he's not as much of a two-way guy.
02:31He's not as stout against the run.
02:34And it shows all of those other guys, including Will Anderson.
02:37So, ultimately, sacks shouldn't matter, but they do when it comes to perception.
02:44I think the biggest thing Will Anderson has going for him right now is that he's the opposite of Miles Garrett.
02:49Will is playing on the number one scoring defense, the number one defense in terms of yardage right now.
02:55And whereas Miles Garrett is playing on a defense that's actually still doing pretty well, but his team is just abysmal.
03:00It's horrible.
03:00So, he might – Miles Garrett might get the benefit of, wow, look, that defense was actually still impressive despite getting zero help from the offense.
03:08Yeah.
03:08And Miles Garrett was a big driving force behind that.
03:11Yeah.
03:11And Miles Garrett has become sort of the J.J. Watt of this era.
03:16Like, you had the J.J. Watt era where he won three Defensive Player of the Year awards in four years.
03:22So, by the time he's winning the third one, he didn't even have one of his – I mean, he had one of his best seasons, obviously.
03:27But he – that – the 2015 one, that season wasn't as prolific.
03:32He was banged up a lot that year.
03:33He still won Defensive Player of the Year.
03:35And then I think it was Aaron Donald for a few years there.
03:38He's winning, you know, whatever it was, three or four Defensive Player of the Year.
03:41It's Miles Garrett now, and he's going to be the guy who's sort of like, okay, if he has a big year, doesn't matter what his team does.
03:46Like, he's – we know he's incredible.
03:48He's the best Defensive Player in the world.
03:50Is there – I feel like I should be feeling annoyed that Daniil Hunter isn't getting more – just more credit.
04:00I feel like his quiet – his quiet demeanor does him in.
04:03He – probably.
04:05He wasn't even on – the actual email that we get with it goes down like 15, 17 names.
04:13He wasn't on – he wasn't on there for any of it.
04:15The answer is, yeah, he should be on there.
04:17Like, he's – to me, he's one of the 15 most impactful Defensive Players in football.
04:22The thing about the Texans' defense that's really cool is that they are – despite having a big – a lot of big names,
04:30they do operate kind of like a no-name defense.
04:33One of the reasons the sack numbers as a team aren't gaudier than they are is partly just because you've got two edge rushers
04:40who really try to do the right thing and not just go for the sack no matter what.
04:46There have been times where on the Texans they've had some good pass rushers – and I'm not talking about J.J. Watt here.
04:50He was never one of these guys.
04:51But they've had some good pass rushers but who would just run right past the quarterback at the top.
04:56And that's – that's exactly – you know, they just get ridden around and they're just trying to get as close as they can
05:02and maybe try to reach in and swat the ball away.
05:05But then it ends up, A, you don't get there.
05:08And, B, you leave it wide open for the quarterback to scramble.
05:12The Texans' defensive ends do a good job of getting to the level of the quarterback
05:15and then trying to compress the pocket.
05:17And they might not have as good a chance of getting a sack individually,
05:22but they've got a better chance of flushing the QB as a group or just enclosing in on him
05:27and making it for a really difficult throw.
05:32They do a great job of staying disciplined with that.
05:34Well, and that's how you – and that's how, as a team, you become the number one scoring defense
05:40and the number one yardage defense.
05:41And one of the interception leaders, too.
05:44Yeah.
05:44Because it forces a lot of bad throws.
05:47That's a good point.
05:48Absolutely.
05:48Yeah, there's people on here, text messages, Hunter not getting any consideration.
05:51He's not up the odds board.
05:52I don't – look, there's nine games left to play.
05:55If Daniil Hunter – if Daniil Hunter plays the last nine games the way he played in that Jacksonville game,
06:00Daniil Hunter can win defensive player of the year.
06:02I mean, he had three and a half sacks.
06:03I think he's going to win defensive player of the week.
06:06John Gruden does this bit.
06:08John Gruden, former head coach who's now part of Barstool,
06:11does this bit where he picks out the various players that had big weeks
06:17and he just goes nuts over each of them for about ten seconds and then moves on to the next one.
06:22Daniil Hunter made his little video.
06:24Guys like Daniil Hunter are the Houston Texans.
06:27You know they're down 29-10 to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the fourth quarter,
06:31but they just keep on swinging.
06:33And nobody landed more punches than Daniil Hunter.
06:36Four sacks!
06:38Motor!
06:39Power!
06:40Speed!
06:40A wrecking machine indeed!
06:43Who?
06:45And that's it?
06:46Ten seconds?
06:47Well, that – but he – there's like – there's like six other players that are part of it.
06:50I just pulled out the Daniil part.
06:52If you look at Will and Daniil – and I think there is – there's an element of Will –
06:56I guess just the explosiveness and physicality where it really pops on film
07:00and sometimes he's making his presence known without getting an actual stat on it.
07:04But at this point in the season, just a little bit, you know,
07:08two quarters over the midway point of the season, Will Anderson and Daniil Hunter.
07:13Will's got seven sacks.
07:14Daniil Hunter's got seven and a half.
07:15Will Anderson has 18 total solo tackles.
07:19Daniil Hunter has 11 solo tackles.
07:21TFLs, Will Anderson has 10, Daniil Hunter has 8, 13, Daniil Hunter has 12.
07:30It's just they've been alarmingly similar on a statistical basis.
07:33They're identical twins.
07:35Forced fumbles.
07:36Will Anderson, 2, Daniil Hunter, 2.
07:38Yeah.
07:39That's nuts.
07:39Fumble recoveries.
07:41Will Anderson, 1, Daniil Hunter, 1.
07:43Yeah.
07:43Will has more touchdowns.
07:45That's where he separates it.
07:47Will also has one more batted pass.
07:52That is incredible, though, how similar the numbers are.
07:55You know, and Daniil needed a big game to play catch-up in the sack department.
07:59But that's how it goes in the D-line game.
08:01Of course, of course, of course.
08:03Yeah, but wow, that's crazy, though.
08:04I mean, you got two guys that if they just bump up the pace a little bit in the last eight games,
08:11you're going to have two 15-sack guys on this team.
08:14You can't waste this, Texans.
08:16Offense, keep doing what you were doing in the second half of that Jags game, please.
08:21Do not waste these legendary years that these guys are having right now.
08:24If you've got two guys in double-digit sacks, that's highly sought after.
08:28That's one of the things that I think that was one of Wade Phillips' old things.
08:33Man, if you've got two guys that have double-digit sacks, that makes it really –
08:36you're giving offenses a real hard time.
08:38Because who do you – we'll go back to – the Jags had a snap in that game
08:42where they had six offensive linemen on the field.
08:45Yep.
08:45They brought in a six offensive lineman.
08:47The running back is part of the pass protection, too.
08:50And they still ended up with a tight end one-on-one on Daniil Hunter.
08:54Yeah.
08:55Partly because the Texans – good job by Matt Burke and D'Amico Ryans.
09:03And they – when the Jaguars came out with six offensive – well, we'll have five defensive linemen.
09:09And they rolled Tommy Togiai out on the field.
09:11Yeah, baby.
09:12And they make it really tough for them.
09:13And, okay, great.
09:15They slid the protection towards Will Anderson.
09:17You're helping out with him.
09:17But you got Daniil Hunter one-on-one on a tight end.
09:20Yeah.
09:21And it did not go well.
09:23It was a sack for Daniil Hunter.
09:24There's no good solutions for that, man.
09:26There are no good solutions.
09:28Someone said, I would vote for co-MVP of the team for Daniil Hunter and Will Anderson.
09:32We talked about that yesterday during the power ranking of the power rankings.
09:36ESPN had non-QB MVP of the team.
09:40And DJ Bien-Aime made a case for Titus Howard.
09:43I wouldn't pick Titus Howard, but I respect DJ Bien-Aime making a case for Titus Howard.
09:48I love co-MVP for the two guys because they really are the package of those two guys.
09:51I think the play you just talked about there, Seth, illustrated the importance of having both of those guys.
09:57Yeah, let's throw all the protection towards potential defensive player of the year, Will Anderson.
10:01Oh, well, what's happening on the other side?
10:03Oh, this cyborg is manhandling your tight end.
10:05That's all.
10:06Just that over on the other side.
10:08He's really done well for himself despite having that physical deformity of ridiculously low body fat and too much muscle.
10:17Oh, Daniil?
10:18It's hard, yeah.
10:19Sometimes, you know, Daniil Hunter, he has to walk through life looking like that.
10:22Yeah, yeah.
10:23I feel bad for him sometimes, you know?
10:25He probably just wants to look like a normal guy with a normal amount of body fat.
10:29But, no, he's a freak show.
10:31He's a freak show.
10:31But at least he can be a good football player.
10:33He can be a good football player.
10:34And I don't think he's one of those guys that would say, don't feel sorry for me that I have 2% body fat.
10:40And he turned lemons into lemonade with that.
10:43He really did.
10:43Yeah.
10:44He really did.
10:45Yeah.
10:45A lot of people are like, my God, he looks like he's some kind of mutant or something.
10:50Yeah.
10:50It's one of the reasons why I'm super proud he's from here, you know, like, that he's from the Houston area.
10:56I mean, I think that epitomizes Houston as much as anything, the blue-collar nature of this town.
11:02Daniil Hunter's ability to pick himself up by his bootstraps with his 2% body fat and his largely chiseled body and go make something of himself.
11:10It is.
11:10It's really, it's a tale that we can all draw inspiration from.
11:14Yep.
11:14Yep.
11:15Well put.
11:15Well put.

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