00:00Today, today's going to be a sport. It's fun, but good sports day. Today's a sports marathon.
00:06Yeah, it's a good sport. It starts at 3 o'clock right here on 105. I think it's 3.15
00:10actually.
00:11But either way, it's going to be a late one. The last game, it's scheduled for 9.05.
00:16If this thing starts before 9.20, I might just, I'm not going to do anything.
00:24I don't know why I would even say I might. It's some kind of veiled threat.
00:27But yeah, I'll be stunned if it starts before 9.20.
00:31But you get going with Texas and Purdue. Purdue is a 7.5 point favorite.
00:36Then you go roll, as it should be, rolling right in to Iowa-Nebraska at 6.30.
00:41So a 20-minute stagger. And then you get the second games of the night, 8.45-ish, Arkansas-Arizona.
00:47That should be fun. That game should have 5 million points.
00:50And then Illinois-Houston to wrap it up, those two games.
00:54The Tex game will be on CBS. It'll be on Channel 11.
00:57So that's going to have a big number.
00:59Give me your 1-4 of interest tonight.
01:03Arkansas-Arizona, I think is number 1.
01:07That's going to be a high-scoring game.
01:08I need Arizona to get taken out.
01:12If you're Houston, if you're Duke winning it all,
01:15the majority of people, the experts, quote-unquote, on ESPN,
01:19I feel like Arizona, West Coast team not winning it since 1997,
01:23is the majority of the selections.
01:24Yeah, they had a lot of them.
01:26They do.
01:27And this should be an interesting game because Arkansas-
01:30I mean, I don't need it because I'm good, as always.
01:33I'm Gucci.
01:34I'm money.
01:35I'm not going to lose the morning show bet,
01:37but it would distance even further because I have Duke winning it.
01:41Yeah, if Arkansas-
01:43So you want Arizona to lose, you said?
01:45Sure.
01:45Yeah.
01:46Right, because I have Arkansas winning as well in the bracket.
01:49I think the other two have Arizona.
01:51So you have Arkansas winning the game.
01:53You have this matchup.
01:54Yeah, I have Arkansas in the Final Four.
01:56Okay.
01:58I don't know how I feel about that now.
02:00And let's see if tonight's a best player I am he moment for Acuff.
02:04That'd be nice.
02:05Number four, number one, I'm the man.
02:09I got the draft stock that is shooting up through the roof.
02:12Ton of discussions here in DFW about him.
02:15Let's see if this is an I am he that we're talking about at this time tomorrow.
02:18Yeah, I hope so.
02:19But then again, if the Mavs don't move up from six and they actually drop,
02:22I hope he sucks tonight and he falls and he just tanks his stock
02:26and then we get to get him.
02:27But we got four games today, four games tomorrow.
02:31First things first.
02:32So Arkansas-Arizona is one for you.
02:34Then what?
02:34Okay, Arkansas-Arizona is number one for me.
02:36And then Illinois-Houston game is going to be really, really good.
02:40That's a 2-3.
02:40Yeah, that's going to be really good.
02:42Then Texas-Purdue.
02:43Yeah.
02:44And then Iowa-Nebraska.
02:45Iowa-Nebraska might actually be the closest.
02:48So I'm just kind of bored with Iowa.
02:50Well, it's got the closest point spread.
02:52Yeah, I'm not a huge fan of Iowa.
02:57They run kind of a boring style and it is what it is,
03:01but that's probably the least intriguing for me.
03:05Jacob Ray in for Pepe.
03:06How is your bracket looking?
03:08Did you have Texas Tech, your Red Raiders, going farther than this
03:11or right about where they went out?
03:13I had them losing to Alabama.
03:15I got enough crap during KNC.
03:18They convinced me to switch my pick from Akron to Texas Tech, and I did.
03:22And I took Tech in the first round.
03:23But look, Alabama is just so good.
03:26You were going to take Akron over them.
03:27I was going to take Akron over them.
03:29Whoa.
03:30I was really good.
03:31And for the entire game, it was played in a five-point window
03:34until Tech pulled away at the end.
03:36So I was like, oh, I might not have been wrong.
03:37I had the zips.
03:38I had the zips, too.
03:39Their offense is really, really good.
03:41I was drinking the Kool-Aid.
03:43I mean, you both lost by you.
03:44Yeah, we did.
03:45It's not in good shape.
03:46I think I'm like top 71%, I want to say.
03:50But I'm just in my own little bracket with my girlfriend.
03:52She's in the top 16%.
03:53She does not know ball.
03:55Of course, ball.
03:56We're good to go.
03:57Top 60, that's good, right?
03:58Or is that bad?
03:59No, she's like, sorry, bottom 16.
04:03Bottom 16.
04:03Bottom 16.
04:04I thought you were like, top 16.
04:05I was like, damn.
04:06That's usually the way it happens.
04:07That's the way it happens.
04:08No, bottom 16.
04:09Bottom 16.
04:10Bottom 16.
04:10Wow, you couldn't even, like, try.
04:13You got steaks?
04:14You got steaks on the line?
04:15Loser asked.
04:15We do.
04:16What is it?
04:16I can't say it over the air.
04:18Oh, there you go.
04:19Just keep it as spicy at 22.
04:20That's that 22-year-old spicy bet.
04:22Love it.
04:23Wow, you get to pick whose keys go in the jar, huh?
04:25Okay.
04:26All right, so.
04:27So, one seed.
04:29So, we got the only one seed tonight is going to be Arizona.
04:33But one seeds win their Sweet 16 matchup about 80% of the time.
04:37I didn't know that.
04:38And two seeds win about 70% of the time.
04:41So, with all four two seeds remaining, history says one two seed, Texas-Purdue, who knows, one two seed is
04:52not going to win today or tomorrow.
04:55Okay.
04:56History says that.
04:57And Texas is an 11 seed.
04:5911 seeds are the most likely double-digit seed to make a deep run.
05:05Okay.
05:0634% of the time, the 11 seeds that make the Sweet 16 win in the Sweet 16.
05:13And the other two seeds, of course, UConn against Michigan State and then Iowa State against your Vols.
05:19And then Illinois and Houston is another two seed against Illinois.
05:23So, one of those four, history says, is going to lose.
05:27It's going to lose this weekend.
05:29By the way, the money is rolling in on Texas.
05:32Really?
05:33Rolling in.
05:34The number, the spread was seven and a half.
05:37It hasn't moved a ton, but the money is rolling in on the Longhorns.
05:43They are top 15 in offense and strength of schedule.
05:47They're a little bit live here.
05:48Also, the Sweet 16, when two teams are five seeds or above in the same game and they play, the
05:55lower-seeded team wins about 60%.
05:57Now, Nebraska is not a five seed.
06:00They're four, but they're the last four seed.
06:02They're the last four seed, so the weakest of the four.
06:06So, double-digit dogs also, this is for Iowa, winning as a double-digit dog the week before,
06:13they have never, never won the next round in the NCAA tournament.
06:19Whoa.
06:19Never.
06:20So, they're one and five against the spread.
06:22So, taking Iowa in this game, probably not the smartest thing that you could do.
06:28So, maybe I should go and get Nebraska with the points?
06:31And with the points?
06:31I think that's a great play.
06:34And that stat is saying it's never happened?
06:36So, in the...
06:37For a team in Iowa's position.
06:39So, the seventh team in the last 20 years to play in the Sweet 16 after being a double-digit
06:44dog in the previous round.
06:46Those teams are 0-6.
06:48Straight up.
06:50You know, and since it's only a one-point spread...
06:52Yeah.
06:53You know, if you think they're going to lose, then they're going to lose.
06:55Underdog has Nebraska with three and a half.
06:57Ooh, wow.
06:58Ooh.
06:59Here's another thing.
07:00Arkansas is a four-point underdog to Arizona.
07:03Coach Cal, 7-1 in the NCAA tournament against the spread as an underdog of four or more.
07:10And Arizona has never won a Sweet 16 game with this coach.
07:14Sean Miller at Texas, 11-4 against the spread as an underdog in the NCAA tournament.
07:20And then double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16 cover 61% of the time.
07:26And that's what Texas is.
07:27Double-digit seed.
07:28They cover 61%.
07:30How about this one?
07:32Last 20 years, from this point of the tournament on, where the total is 160 or above, so 160 points,
07:40both teams, and the over-under,
07:41the under is 5-1.
07:455-1.
07:46Rick Pitino at St. John's.
07:48They have never hit the over in the NCAA tournament together.
07:54So, Pitino at St. John's, that over has never played.
07:59And John Shire, as a tournament coach, 10-3 to the under.
08:0410-3 at Duke.
08:06So, the under is a stat you might want to take there.
08:09You got me fingering over here.
08:12Oh, baby.
08:14Oh, my gosh.
08:15Aiden's already in here.
08:17He's about to save that one.
08:18Setting up the fan camp for Jared Sandler.
08:20You got my thumbs working, baby.
08:22All right.
08:22Okay.
08:22I'm looking at Texas plus 7-1-1.
08:25Nebraska to win.
08:27$40 gets me $125.
08:30Woo-wee.
08:31On underdog.
08:33Woo-wee.
08:33Is there another one of the tips that you just gave?
08:37Because, again, these are the types of things I use to win or not lose our bracket every single year.
08:42Is there another one screaming at you to go ahead and put down all of those?
08:46The Pitino St. John's coupled with Duke is what I love.
08:50How about this?
08:51Rick Barnes.
08:52My guy.
08:53I love Rick.
08:53The Deacon.
08:54I love Rick Barnes.
08:56I like to – maybe this isn't just you.
08:59I like to – if I'm going to place multiple bets, I want it all for that night, that day.
09:04I don't want to wait.
09:05You know?
09:05So, like, I'll do something for tonight and then do whatever you're about to give for tomorrow with St. John's,
09:13Vols, Duke.
09:14I like to not have a carryover.
09:16I need my instant gratification or punishment.
09:19Yeah, I like the Texas to cover because the 61% of the time, those double-digit seeds cover the
09:28line.
09:29I love Arkansas.
09:31I love Arkansas to cover as well.
09:34And then I think the Nebraska one plays as well.
09:38How about this?
09:39Rick Barnes is an underdog in the Sweet 16.
09:410-5 straight up.
09:43They're getting four and a half, so you can play the points there if you wanted to.
09:46That's a small margin.
09:48In the last five years, all 20 Final Four teams have had a minimum adjusted offensive rating of 118
09:57and a turnover and rebound differential of 150 or more for the year.
10:03Every single one of the Final Four teams have had that over the last five years.
10:09The two that do not qualify right now, Nebraska and Alabama.
10:14There's the only two left that don't qualify.
10:17RJ Choppy, if you want to get some updated picks in outside of your bracket on underdog,
10:22use promo code TOLO.
10:23What's going on at UNC?
10:25Okay, so we knew they fired, I should say, Hubert Davis, and they let him go.
10:30And he had been there for a few years.
10:33Did make a Final Four back about four years ago.
10:37One ACC head coach told Jeff Goodman,
10:41I had hoped he was the coach there forever.
10:44No one in the ACC was scared of him.
10:47Dang.
10:47I'm worried they hire someone really good because if you get a big-time guy at UNC,
10:51they could be right there with Duke again.
10:54Now, of course, Carolina fans are like, hang on,
10:55we've got more Final Four appearances than Duke does in the last decade.
11:00But that is a very interesting statement that a head coach, harsh words.
11:06Same thing people are saying about the UNC football coach as well.
11:10Oh, with Bill, yeah.
11:11A lot of people wanting him just to go ahead and stay there.
11:13Yep, they just wanted to stay there because they don't think that he's got what it takes
11:17to cut his teeth down there at the college level.
11:19They were 24-6 before the Caleb Wilson injury, and they basically just never won a game.
11:24Vegas has sent me the update on the UNC favorite from BetOnline.
11:29It is Billy Donovan.
11:31Okay.
11:32And that sent you down a little rabbit hole yesterday.
11:34It did because...
11:36Where is he again?
11:37How old is he again?
11:38He was a two-time national champion coach at Florida.
11:43Yeah.
11:43And then he's like, you know what, I'm just going to try my hand at the NBA.
11:47And, you know, didn't he become the head coach and then take it back and then go back again?
11:51I feel like he did with Orlando.
11:55But, you know, would you rather be like a national championship coach at college or just a completely
12:01anonymous head coach in the NBA?
12:03And he feels like an anonymous head coach.
12:04He is.
12:06Donovan's a favorite.
12:07Then TJ.
12:09Olsenberger at Iowa State.
12:11Olsenberger at 4-1.
12:12Tommy Lloyd.
12:14Nate Oates.
12:14Brad Stevens has already said no.
12:16Dusty May.
12:18Sean May.
12:19Todd Golden.
12:20Mark Fuse.
12:21Scott Drew.
12:21I'll tell you, if I'm...
12:22I'm throwing a bag of money at Dusty May at Michigan.
12:25He's done a great job there.
12:28I mean, you could try your hand at Todd Golden at Florida.
12:33You know, he's a good coach.
12:35Obviously, he won a national championship.
12:37But Dusty May is the first guy that would come to mind for me.
12:40Because, you know, there's not going to be...
12:42There isn't...
12:43You know, when they hired Roy Williams, there was an obvious...
12:46There was an obvious choice.
12:48He was in the family and he was a great coach.
12:50They don't have that right now.
12:50There it is.
12:51Choppy getting you set for the madness with the Sweet 16 tonight.
12:54All right.
