- 2 weeks ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 02/09/2026. Further rain and showers for the end of the week before a brief drier interlude this weekend and a warm day on Sunday. Then all change again next week as wet and at times windy weather returns. Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Annie Shuttleworth.
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00:00Meteorological autumn has begun, but how wet and windy are the first couple of weeks of September looking?
00:06Well, we've got a pretty typical setup for meteorological autumn.
00:10The jet stream active through the Atlantic, that's this pink colour here,
00:13and that will drive and develop areas of low pressure and drive them towards the UK through the next 10
00:20days.
00:20So this further wet and at times windy weather.
00:23Through this weekend, we could see quite a deep area of low pressure develop out in the Atlantic,
00:27drive up to the north and bring some quite windy weather to northern areas throughout Sunday.
00:33And then as we head through next week, well, the jet stream stays with us and we'll see quite a
00:38mixed week,
00:39potentially some windy and wet days on the cards.
00:42But more in the way of showery rain to come through the rest of this week across more southern areas
00:48on Thursday.
00:49A drier day across the north, but then the rain will turn more persistent across parts of Northern Ireland,
00:54north-west England and later on up towards Scotland into the late afternoon and evening.
01:00But ahead of that, it's going to be feeling quite warm and humid.
01:03It's quite typical through the autumn months when you pick up that warmth and humidity,
01:07when you pick up that southerly air and then it turns cooler again when we get more of a low
01:11pressure push in from the north.
01:13So it's going to be quite changeable temperature-wise throughout the next 10 days,
01:17but some quite warm and humid nights to come through the next few nights.
01:21Now, this weather front across the north then becomes a little bit more persistent Thursday night and into Friday
01:26before it sinks south and eastwards throughout Friday.
01:29So there's potential for some quite persistent rainfall across some areas of north-west England, north Wales as well.
01:36There's some uncertainty in the details just because it's a bit of a waving weather front
01:39and they always play a little bit of havoc with the weather models.
01:43But we're most likely to see the highest rainfall totals across parts of north-west England, north Wales.
01:48We could see around 70 millimetres in those areas, and that's a watch point.
01:53But for many southern areas, we'll just see a little bit of drizzly rain throughout Friday afternoon.
01:58And parts of north-west Scotland could see some higher rainfall totals as well.
02:02So that gives you an idea of the picture.
02:04But the main weather band pushes south and eastwards throughout Friday afternoon.
02:09And behind it, a showery picture.
02:12Some quite blustery, heavy showers across much of Scotland as well as Northern Ireland through Friday afternoons.
02:18It's going to feel a little bit fresher here, quite breezy as well.
02:21We could see gusts of around 40 miles per hour across some northern areas on Friday afternoon.
02:27And it will be quite gusty as well around this weather front for a time.
02:30But it does tend to fade away a little bit as it pushes into more south and eastern areas.
02:34So showery rain, rain coming and going.
02:36And it will turn a bit drier into the afternoon on Friday.
02:39And that sets us up for a fairly fine weekend, actually.
02:43Having said, it's going to be quite windy for some areas.
02:45Actually, high pressure builds back in.
02:48It builds back in from the south, from the near continent, where it's turning quite warm, actually, through the next
02:53week or so once again.
02:55So it's going to be a sunny day on Saturday for much of England and Wales.
02:59More northern areas, just seeing more in the way of cloud, a little bit in the way of some light
03:03rain as well.
03:05But for most of us, a dry and relatively warm day.
03:09Temperatures around 23, 24 degrees in the best of the sunshine.
03:13High teens for most of us.
03:14It's the best of a few days because we won't have too much sunshine over the next couple of days.
03:19So a fairly bright and dry day and not too hot.
03:22But then it does get a little bit hotter as we head towards Sunday.
03:26There's a significant difference from northwest to southeast as we head into Sunday.
03:31We've got this really deep area of low pressure that drives up to the north and west of the UK.
03:36There's some discrepancies in quite how deep this area of low pressure gets.
03:40But we are expecting it to push up to the north and west, pushing in some rain by the end
03:45of Sunday.
03:46Sunday afternoon, it will turn wetter across northwestern areas.
03:49And the winds will start to strengthen.
03:51But also, it's a southerly direction.
03:54And ahead of the weather front, there's going to be a lot of sunshine.
03:56And it will start to feel quite warm.
03:58Temperatures are set to climb to the high 20s.
04:00But it's pretty much a one-day-only affair.
04:03And it is going to be quite windy away from this area of low pressure.
04:06Across more areas of central England and southern England as well, we could see some quite gusty winds.
04:12But it's going to be quite warm and sunny.
04:14So in the shelter, it should feel quite hot actually throughout Sunday.
04:18It doesn't last all that long.
04:20And as I said, it could be quite windy for some areas on Sunday.
04:24This is the probability of wind gusts greater than 40 knots, which is about 45, 46 miles per hour.
04:30And you can see for particularly northwestern Scotland, but also a large swathe of northern England, southern Scotland, we could
04:38see some inland gusts of around 40 miles per hour.
04:42So there's a potential for quite a breezy day on Sunday.
04:45Some uncertainty in exactly how deep that area of low pressure gets.
04:49So that's one to watch, but we'll be keeping you updated in our weekend forecast and, of course, through our
04:54Weather Studio Live on Friday for all the details on that.
04:58Now, the reason why there's a bit of uncertainty, well, it's because this area of low pressure is very close
05:02to the jet stream.
05:03So it really depends how it interacts with the jet stream as we get closer to the affair as to
05:08quite how deep it gets and the exact positioning of that area of low pressure.
05:12But I think it's set to bring some windy weather, at least, to more northern areas.
05:16So a big difference northwest to southeast throughout Sunday.
05:20Then that rain pushes a little bit further south and eastwards throughout Monday.
05:25That may linger a little before it clears.
05:28And then we get that ridge of higher pressure building in for a time into Monday.
05:33And then that sets us up for the next 10 days.
05:36You can see this is the next two weeks, in fact.
05:38There will see some oscillations between higher pressure and lower pressure dominating.
05:43The blues show that lower pressure dominating.
05:45And as we head into the first, the second full week of September, you can see that we've got low
05:51pressure really dominating our weather until at least next weekend, the 12th of September.
05:57And so we will likely see more low pressure systems throughout the week.
06:01So a short period of higher pressure dominating, particularly across the south, to bring us some quite warm weather on
06:07Sunday.
06:07And then a downturn to wetter and potentially windier weather into next week.
06:12Now, how does that play out?
06:13Well, still a few days away.
06:15So we don't know the details exactly.
06:17But I can, of course, give you a good idea.
06:20So the most likely set up through Monday is that low pressure still driving away from the weekend up to
06:25the north.
06:26And so behind it, westerly winds, potentially still some wetter weather across the north.
06:30That front could be lingering in the south and east, but westerly winds, a little bit of a drier day.
06:36Not as dry as Saturday's looking, for example, but certainly a slightly calmer day than Sunday.
06:43And then Tuesday is a really interesting day.
06:46These are the three most likely setups from our decided data.
06:49One of them still shows that low pressure up to the north.
06:52But some of them are showing quite a deep area of low pressure pushing across the UK, either up to
06:58the north or slightly more centred closer to the UK.
07:02So these are the most likely scenarios.
07:04You can see all of them with relatively low chance.
07:08We've got 36%, 20% and 16% here.
07:11But low pressure looks likely to push through on Tuesday.
07:15And this is from the decided data, the Met Office global model, ensemble data.
07:21But if you look at some other models, such as the European model, the ECMWF model, it does show quite
07:27a deep area of low pressure across the UK.
07:30Some model runs are going for a notably deep area of low pressure right across the UK on Tuesday the
07:358th.
07:36But there is quite a lot of uncertainty in that.
07:39Now, let's zoom in a little bit on this map so we can see a bit more detail.
07:44Here's the UK here and the different dots show you the different ensemble runs and where that pressure centre is,
07:51that low pressure centre.
07:53So the control member is here and it's got a deep area of low pressure by lunchtime on Tuesday, right
08:00in the middle of the UK.
08:01But there's quite a big spread.
08:03You can see all these other colours surrounding this area of low pressure are other model run outcomes.
08:09And some of them are not quite as deep.
08:11The darker blue and the greens are the deeper lows, those of 990, 980.
08:16But as we head to more of the purples and the pinks, they're not quite as deep.
08:20They wouldn't bring quite as windy weather.
08:22And a lot of them actually track up to the north and west of the UK.
08:27And similarly to this weekend to Sunday, it's a similar setup with a jet stream straight across the UK.
08:32It really depends how these pressure systems interact with that jet stream,
08:35whether they end up on the north, the cooler side, or the south, the warmer side of the jet stream,
08:40as to how deep they get and potentially how windy it gets.
08:44So we really are going to be having to keep a close eye on that.
08:47But there is the potential for some quite wet and windy weather throughout Tuesday.
08:53Then what happens through the rest of the week?
08:55Well, whatever happens to that area of low pressure through Tuesday,
08:58it's set to sort of move away through Wednesday.
09:00So potentially another quite windy day on Wednesday.
09:04But we could equally start to see a ridge of high pressure building in from the Atlantic by the end
09:10of Wednesday.
09:10So we'll be between the lows and the highs through the rest of the week.
09:15So it's remaining on the cyclonic, the unsettled side of things throughout the week,
09:20with some days seeing that low pressure dominating,
09:23some days seeing that high pressure, that ridge dominating.
09:25But nothing's looking particularly long-lived.
09:28So any wet and windy spells will probably move through quite quickly.
09:31Any drier and brighter days not lasting all that long either.
09:35So you can see by Friday the 11th, the most likely chance,
09:389% chance, albeit, is for that ridge of high pressure to be dominant.
09:43But you can see high pressure still dominating in the second most likely.
09:47And kind of between that low and high, all of these are 9% chance, remarkably.
09:53So lower confidence as we head through the latter part of this 10-day trend.
09:58Just because, as I said, nothing's going to last all that long
10:01and we could be on different transitional periods.
10:03So changeable.
10:04But with low pressure dominating, this is the pressure anomaly for the week as a whole.
10:10This is thanks to ECMWF.
10:12And you can see the blue or tealy colour, which I like to call it,
10:16is most likely to dominate here.
10:18And you can see that we've got that most likely up to the north and west of the UK.
10:23So that shows us that low pressures are likely to move up around to the north.
10:28That's the most likely track of them.
10:30But still low pressure in situ across much of the UK through much of the week,
10:34with high pressure down to the south.
10:36As I mentioned, temperatures are starting to rise,
10:38with high pressure dominating across parts of north-western Europe,
10:42parts of southern France, as well as northern Spain.
10:45So still some hot weather nearby.
10:47But for the UK, with low pressure dominating and it's centred up to more of the north,
10:51that does mean it's actually looking like a cooler week on the whole.
10:54So after an anomalous warm day on Sunday,
10:58next week actually looks cooler than average across many northern areas
11:01and pretty close to average for early September across southern areas.
11:06Obviously, that's the week as a whole.
11:08There could be some warmer days if we get that high pressure lasting a little bit longer,
11:13for example, towards the end of next week and towards the next weekend as well.
11:17So that does mean we're in for a bit of a changeable few days.
11:20There's more rain to come, potentially some windy weather.
11:23So please stay tuned to the forecast and don't forget to subscribe to our YouTube channel.
11:27Bye-bye.
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