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⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 Russia Just Poked The Japanese Bear… THEN This Happened
16:64 Ukraine Turned HUNTING Russians Into a 24/7 “AMAZON PRIME” Operation
34:31 UKRAINE'S Strategy Just Broke The Russian Economy… THIS Is Brutal
52:22 NATO Just Sent Something Near Kaliningrad… Then Russia Wet Its Pants
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⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 Russia Just Poked The Japanese Bear… THEN This Happened
16:64 Ukraine Turned HUNTING Russians Into a 24/7 “AMAZON PRIME” Operation
34:31 UKRAINE'S Strategy Just Broke The Russian Economy… THIS Is Brutal
52:22 NATO Just Sent Something Near Kaliningrad… Then Russia Wet Its Pants
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
#themilitaryshow
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NewsTranscript
00:00:01At this point, Putin is like a down-on-his-luck boxer, just looking for one big fight, one last
00:00:07payday, to make everything alright again.
00:00:09That's the only reason we can find for why Russia's leader decided that now, while he is embroiled in the
00:00:15war in Ukraine, would be a good time to pick a fight with Japan.
00:00:18Putin decided to visit disputed islands, and in doing so, he reignited a border war that has simmered under the
00:00:25surface for decades.
00:00:27Japan isn't happy.
00:00:28The Japanese bear has been poked once more, and this time, Putin may be getting more than he bargained for,
00:00:34as he tries everything that he can think of to make Russia a geopolitical power once more.
00:00:39On August 13th, Putin crawled out of his bunker and took a trip.
00:00:42Russia's president didn't emerge back into the real world to do anything that might actually help the Russian people, who
00:00:48are increasingly suffering due to Ukraine bringing the war that Putin started back to Russia.
00:00:53No, Putin doesn't care about such trifling concerns.
00:00:56Rather, Russia's leader decided that August 13th would be the perfect date for him to go on a little trip
00:01:02to what Russia calls Il Turup Island, and what Japan calls Erotofu.
00:01:06That island is the largest of those that make up the southern Kurils, and all of these islands have been
00:01:12occupied by Russia since the end of World War II.
00:01:14On the surface, there doesn't seem to be a problem here.
00:01:17Putin just visited Russian territory, right?
00:01:20Well, not exactly.
00:01:21Russia may occupy the Kurils, but Japan has disputed that occupation for decades.
00:01:26This wasn't some simple visit for Putin.
00:01:28It amounted to a conscious decision to poke at Japan.
00:01:32It was meant to remind Japan that Russia not only occupies, but intends to maintain control over the Kurils for
00:01:38a long time.
00:01:39With this single visit, Putin has reignited tensions that lay dormant and triggered a series of events that have Japan
00:01:46on edge, could reinforce China's presence in the Pacific region, and may eventually have an impact on Russia's invasion of
00:01:52Ukraine.
00:01:53But we'll be getting to all of that.
00:01:54Japan isn't happy about what Putin just did, though it didn't react with white-hot rage.
00:01:59That isn't the Japanese way.
00:02:01Instead, Japan's Prime Minister, Sanai Takeuchi, labeled Putin's actions as absolutely unacceptable, followed by summoning the Russian ambassador in Tokyo
00:02:10for what The Guardian calls a dressing down.
00:02:13Russia countered by claiming that Japan was making unfounded claims on its territory in the Kurils.
00:02:18Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did some summoning of his own, calling on the Japanese ambassador in Russia to pay
00:02:24him a visit.
00:02:25Interestingly, that ambassador didn't reply immediately.
00:02:28The Observer says that time was taken, likely to discuss the approach with officials back in Tokyo, before the ambassador
00:02:34made their way to Lavrov for a 20-minute discussion.
00:02:37What all of this tells us is that the southern Kurils situation is far more complicated than Putin wants it
00:02:43to appear.
00:02:43To understand why, we need to dig a little deeper into what the Kurils actually are.
00:02:48The Kurils are a series of islands that stretch for around 1,200 kilometers, spanning from the northeast of Hokkaido,
00:02:55which is in Japan, to Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula.
00:02:58All told, 56 islands are counted among the Kurils, with the southernmost being just 4 kilometers away from Hokkaido.
00:03:04So for Japan, these islands aren't part of some far-flung cluster lying somewhere off in the Pacific.
00:03:10They are right on Japan's doorstep.
00:03:12And it's the four Kuril Islands closest to Japan, which include the one that Putin visited, that are potential flashpoints
00:03:19for a brewing battle between Russia and Japan.
00:03:22These four islands are disputed because of events that date back to World War II.
00:03:26Toward the end of that conflict, Soviet soldiers seized the islands, which Japan refers to as the Northern Territories.
00:03:32Such things are common in war, of course, but the tensions arise from what came after World War II ended.
00:03:38In 1951, Japanese representatives headed to San Francisco to sign a peace treaty, in which they renounced ownership of the
00:03:45Kurils to Russia.
00:03:46The only exceptions Japan made were the four islands in this long chain that are in the Northern Territories, and
00:03:51basically right on top of Japan's borders.
00:03:54Japan wanted to keep those islands. That's where the problem started.
00:03:57The Soviet Union chose not to sign the treaty, and these four islands have been disputed ever since.
00:04:03From that, we have some much-needed context that highlights the gravity of what Putin just did.
00:04:08Japan's response may have been understated, but make no mistake, there was genuine anger behind Sanai Takeichi's words.
00:04:15Putin visiting the particular island that he headed to on August 13th is a very intentional slap in Japan's face.
00:04:20And that slap was delivered at a time when Putin should be focusing on the Ukraine war and the impact
00:04:26that war is having on his own people.
00:04:28So we come to the obvious question, why visit the Southern Kurils now?
00:04:32There are two answers to this question, one strategic, and the other related to neither Russia nor Japan, but to
00:04:39a third player that Russia is desperate to appease, China.
00:04:43Starting with the strategic element, Russia wants to exercise control over its southern Kurils for more than just having something
00:04:49to hold over Japan.
00:04:50These islands are important because of their location.
00:04:53The Kurils, as a whole, are key to Russia's Pacific fleet.
00:04:57They serve as a point of embarkment for Russian warships, as well as functioning as a natural barrier between the
00:05:02Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Okhotsk,
00:05:04which the observer says is a patch of water that Russia also uses as a location for its second strike
00:05:09nuclear deterrent in the Pacific region.
00:05:11For Putin, full control over the Kurils, including the four disputed islands, strengthens this deterrent, as well as Russia's Pacific
00:05:18position.
00:05:19The fact that the closest of these islands to Japan is just four kilometers away from Hokkaido also isn't lost
00:05:25on Putin.
00:05:26If Russia holds that island, it can pose a constant threat to Japan. Putin wants to have that threat.
00:05:32Japan has supported Ukraine since Putin launched his invasion and Russia is more than happy to hold islands,
00:05:38legitimately or otherwise, that it can use to intimidate Japan.
00:05:42There is also an economic reason why Russia wants to exercise control over these islands.
00:05:47Ownership of the Kurils also gives whoever holds the islands ownership over the waters that surround them.
00:05:52Under current maritime law, every nation has the right to establish the waters around its land as territorial sea up
00:05:59to a distance of 12 nautical miles.
00:06:01There are also exclusive economic zones or EEZs to consider.
00:06:06An EEZ is an area of sea or ocean that typically extends up to 200 nautical miles from a nation's
00:06:12coast.
00:06:13Within that EEZ, a nation has jurisdiction over living and non-living resources.
00:06:18This typically amounts to sovereign rights related to exploring, conserving, managing and exploiting natural resources,
00:06:24and can even extend to establishing artificial islands and building infrastructure.
00:06:29With an island chain as long as the Kurils comes a whole lot of control over water,
00:06:34allowing Russia to exercise fishing rights, exploit whatever natural resources might be in the waters surrounding the Kurils.
00:06:41However, Russia doesn't seem too concerned about the economic aspect.
00:06:44It's something that could be used against Japan if Russia sees fit.
00:06:48However, Russia has also generally allowed Japan to fish in the waters around the southern Kurils.
00:06:53So this territorial aspect is more a nice card to have in the pocket than the true reason why Putin
00:06:58decided to pay his little visit.
00:07:00There is something bigger at play.
00:07:02Still, we can't simply ignore the strategic element of Putin's visit.
00:07:05Russia and Japan still haven't signed a formal treaty to end World War II because of the four southern Kuril
00:07:12islands.
00:07:13Even as Russia and Japan tried to normalize diplomatic relations in the wake of World War II,
00:07:18these islands have been a bone of contention,
00:07:21a point where former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared in 2019
00:07:25that Japan would never sign a full peace treaty with Russia until the issue is resolved.
00:07:30By making his visit, Putin has basically just put himself on the front line of a border dispute that has
00:07:36existed for decades.
00:07:37It's a deliberate provocation.
00:07:40It's an assertion of Russian sovereignty that doesn't officially exist on islands that are part of a chain where Russia
00:07:45has installed ground forces,
00:07:47air defense systems, anti-ship missiles, and a whole host of naval facilities and military infrastructure.
00:07:53In short, Putin's visit was a threat to Japan.
00:07:56However, the threat was more of an added bonus than the main purpose of Putin's trip.
00:08:01Russia's leader is actually far more interested in something else that the southern Kurils offer,
00:08:05a chance to build close ties with China.
00:08:08But before we dig into that aspect of the visit, this is a reminder that you're watching The Military Show.
00:08:13We make videos to explain how power moves and explore geopolitical consequences.
00:08:18If you're getting insight from our channel, don't forget to subscribe and enable notifications so you don't miss what we
00:08:24have coming next.
00:08:26There is some suggestion that Putin's visit to the southern Kurils is a direct response to a Japanese white paper
00:08:32that has identified Russia as an acute threat.
00:08:35That doesn't seem to be the case.
00:08:37Though that white paper came out just a few days before Putin's visit, Russia had been carrying out naval drills
00:08:42in the region before the paper's publication.
00:08:44Those drills are ongoing, with the most recent involving training strikes close to the southern Kurils.
00:08:49So this visit wasn't about a response either.
00:08:52Ultimately, it was all about China.
00:08:54For China, the Kurils hold a different purpose.
00:08:57Access through these islands offers China unfettered passage into Pacific waters, along with serving China's Arctic ambitions.
00:09:04In the case of the former, one of the reasons why China focuses so intently on Taiwan is that control
00:09:10over that territory also offers greater access to Pacific waters.
00:09:14If China happens to be allied with the nation that holds the Kurils, or even better, can essentially make that
00:09:20nation subservient to Beijing, then a war with Taiwan isn't necessarily needed.
00:09:24The Kurils can serve as the same sort of Pacific gateway that China is looking for.
00:09:29This is where Russia enters the equation.
00:09:32And the impact of all of this on the Ukraine war starts to become clearer.
00:09:36Russia has spent every day since Putin launched his invasion making concessions to China.
00:09:42Putin had to.
00:09:43When the collective West started slapping Russia with sanctions, especially on Russian oil sales, China became a lifeline.
00:09:49It is far from the only nation willing to buy Russia's oil, but certainly the one with the most clout
00:09:55and financial muscle.
00:09:56For four and a half years, China has been Russia's main oil lifeline, enabling Putin to keep money pouring into
00:10:03the Kremlin's war chest through oil sales.
00:10:05And that unbalanced relationship continues to this day.
00:10:09China still buys around half of the oil that Russia sells, as it did in June.
00:10:13China is also Russia's leading buyer of coal, its second largest buyer of oil products, and also one of Russia's
00:10:20largest buyers of both pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas.
00:10:24In August, China's purchases of Russia's seaborne crude oil are estimated to amount to about 1.25 million barrels per
00:10:32day, Reuters reports.
00:10:34Russia wants more from China.
00:10:36Scratch that, Russia needs more from China.
00:10:39For instance, Russia has spent the last few years trying to convince China to work on a joint gas pipeline
00:10:44project.
00:10:45Named Power of Siberia 2, that pipeline would open the door for Russia to sell even more of its gas
00:10:50to China.
00:10:51Only China isn't biting.
00:10:53The project has barely gotten off the ground because China knows that it's negotiating from a position of power,
00:10:58and it wants Russia to make as many concessions as it can force Putin to accept before it will consider
00:11:04working on the project.
00:11:05It's all about doing what's best for China, and Russia, still stuck in the quagmire of its Ukraine war, has
00:11:10no other options.
00:11:11If it wants to sell off its resources to China, then it has to make the types of concessions that
00:11:16China demands.
00:11:18Concessions that may involve the Kuril Islands.
00:11:21China has been taking advantage of Russia's invasion of Ukraine to make some interesting moves.
00:11:25For instance, Chinese maps used in 2023 used some interesting naming conventions, as they used the Chinese names for several
00:11:33Russian regions in the Far East, including Khabarovsk and Vladivostok.
00:11:38This wasn't accidental.
00:11:40It was an indication of China's creeping influence into Russian territory, which has been made possible because of the war
00:11:46in Ukraine and Putin's resulting desperation to keep Chinese oil money flowing.
00:11:50Perhaps we're now seeing something similar in the Kurils.
00:11:53On the surface, Putin's island visit appears to be about projecting power over Japan.
00:11:58But behind the veneer lies the real reason why Putin headed to the southern Kurils.
00:12:03He needed to prove to China that he is still a loyal lapdog who will work in Beijing's interests.
00:12:08And right now, minimizing Japan and potentially opening up new Pacific and Arctic trade routes is very much in China's
00:12:15interests.
00:12:15Or to put it much more simply, if Japan holds the four disputed islands, China knows that it has no
00:12:21chance of controlling them.
00:12:22But as long as Russia is exerting its supposed control, China knows that all of the leverage that it has
00:12:28over Russia could one day be used to finesse those islands out of Russia's hands.
00:12:32There's also a strategic element of all of this for China.
00:12:36Right now, the Kurils are perhaps one of the biggest weak points in China's Pacific trade strategy, as well as
00:12:42any future plans it may have for Taiwan.
00:12:43Those islands being under Russian control serves Beijing well for now.
00:12:48A friend holding the Kurils essentially acts as China's Pacific release valve, preventing naval blockades put in place elsewhere from
00:12:55having their full effect.
00:12:56Again, we come back to Putin as China's lapdog.
00:12:59His visit to Etorofu was an unprovoked attempt at intimidation.
00:13:03But it may not have been a visit that Putin would have made without China's influence.
00:13:07He has a war with Ukraine to deal with after all.
00:13:10But Putin had to make the trip to show China that the Kurils are still under Russian control.
00:13:15And as long as that's the case, Russia is still useful to China, which means China will continue to buy
00:13:21Russian oil.
00:13:22Oh, how the mighty have fought.
00:13:24We wonder how Putin feels knowing that Russia plays second fiddle to China on the international stage.
00:13:30Finally, let's come back to the point we've touched on several times already, which is that Russia is still engulfed
00:13:35in the Ukraine war.
00:13:37Putin visiting the southern Kurils now is a mistake that could hurt Russia in the long run, all to appease
00:13:42Russia's Chinese paymasters.
00:13:43Why is it a mistake?
00:13:45Japan is far from some puny nation that Russia can kick around.
00:13:49It's a powerhouse in the process of awakening from a pacifistic slumber.
00:13:54And Putin's latest attempt at intimidation could prompt Japan into furthering its support of Ukraine.
00:13:59Even if we take away the China factor, Putin heading to disputed territory in a clear attempt to exert Russia's
00:14:05claim smacks of a leader who has his eyes on more than just Ukraine.
00:14:08Putin wants more, which is a point that Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has made repeatedly over the years.
00:14:15Back in 2024, Zelensky was telling the world that Putin won't stop at Ukraine, highlighting the Baltic states as potential
00:14:22next targets.
00:14:23Fast forward to 2026 and Zelensky was actively claiming that Putin had started World War 3.
00:14:28I believe that Putin has already started it.
00:14:31The question is how much territory he will be able to seize and how to stop him.
00:14:35Russia wants to impose on the world a different way of life and change the lives people have chosen for
00:14:40themselves, Zelensky told the BBC at the time.
00:14:43Japan would have been paying attention to those words.
00:14:46Putin's southern Kurils visit proved Zelensky right.
00:14:49Russia has interests it's trying to follow outside of Ukraine and Japan is now one of the points of focus.
00:14:54For Japan, this visit could be a flashpoint that prompts it to provide even more aid to Ukraine and perhaps
00:14:59even to take a step that it's yet to take.
00:15:01Japan's aid has mostly come in the form of financial assistance, humanitarian aid and funds for reconstruction, with Japan having
00:15:09pledged around $20 billion by the beginning of 2026.
00:15:12The one thing that Japan hasn't provided to Ukraine is lethal weaponry.
00:15:16It has started spending money on military equipment, having invested almost $15 million into the PEARL program as of May
00:15:2329th, but that money went to non-lethal equipment rather than weapons.
00:15:27But now, with Russia threatening its borders, Japan may look to do more.
00:15:31Could we see Japan head down the path of providing lethal arms to Ukraine?
00:15:35There are signs that this could happen.
00:15:38Also in May, Reuters reported that Japan's decision to ease certain export rules related to what the country can sell
00:15:44was seen by Ukraine as a potential pathway to getting its hands on Japanese weapons.
00:15:48There are also loopholes that can be exploited.
00:15:51For instance, South Korea has similar rules to Japan when it comes to sending lethal weapons to Ukraine.
00:15:56However, there are no laws saying those weapons can't be sold to other countries that might just happen to then
00:16:01donate or sell those weapons to Ukraine.
00:16:03Even if Japan isn't willing to exploit that loophole, it could also help Ukraine defensively, such as by providing Patriot
00:16:10missile interceptors.
00:16:11Japan has a large stockpile of these missiles and an argument can be made that helping Ukraine with its air
00:16:16defense doesn't amount to sending lethal weapons to the country.
00:16:19The point we are making here is that Japan could be doing a lot more for Ukraine than it currently
00:16:23is.
00:16:24If Putin keeps poking the Japanese bear, he may create a situation where Japan starts doing more.
00:16:29It could start sending weapons and offering more direct support than it had before, as it knows that weakening Russia
00:16:35and Ukraine amounts to weakening Russia's attempts to intimidate Japan by the Kurils.
00:16:40Whether by his choice or China's, Putin has made a grave mistake with his Kurils visit.
00:16:45Japan's response has been understated publicly.
00:16:48But behind the scenes, this single visit could end up changing the entire complexion of the war.
00:16:55Always online, always ready to take your order, and with more products being added every single day.
00:17:02Anybody who is an Amazon Prime member may feel like they've just heard an ad.
00:17:05You find, you pay, you receive, all within a day, and you can do it 24-7.
00:17:10Well, Ukraine just took one look at that business model, and it's decided to implement it in the Ukraine war.
00:17:17Faster weapons deliveries, more Russian casualties.
00:17:20A war that is now moving so fast that Russia has no chance of keeping up.
00:17:25Ukraine has turned hunting Russians into a 24-7 Amazon Prime operation.
00:17:30And this is how.
00:17:31On August 17th, Ukraine's Ministry of Defense released a statement detailing how the dot-chain defense marketplace has transformed how
00:17:40units get access to drones and, crucially, how quickly those drones arrive on the front.
00:17:45Weeks instead of months is the claim from the ministry, as it discusses how a marketplace that has only existed
00:17:51for a year has been tweaked and streamlined to ensure that soldiers get what they need as quickly as possible.
00:17:57Even weeks is an overstatement in some cases.
00:17:59Often, orders placed by units are fulfilled in a single day, just like you'd see if you were an Amazon
00:18:05Prime member.
00:18:06Interceptor drones, FPV drones, electronic warfare equipment, strike drones, reconnaissance drones, and ground robots can all be sent to the
00:18:13frontline forces within a day of orders being placed, the ministry says.
00:18:17Ammunition takes a little longer, though only six days in the fastest cases.
00:18:22And orders for more complex drones or those that have smaller production runs can take a few weeks.
00:18:26What we're seeing here is speed of deployment on an industrial scale.
00:18:31And the numbers are insane.
00:18:32During its first year of operation, Dockchain Defense was responsible for delivering over 1.2 million drones and pieces of
00:18:39equipment to Ukrainian units on the front.
00:18:42The product selection is growing too.
00:18:44Just as you might spend time scrolling through Amazon trying to find the perfect piece of furniture to complete a
00:18:49room, a unit on the front can scroll through 1,181 drones and ground robots from 300 different manufacturers, each
00:18:57of which has been designed to inflict as much pain on Russia as possible.
00:19:00The unit picks the drones that serve its needs best, places the order, and often receives what it needs within
00:19:07a day.
00:19:07It's a remarkable level of efficiency and Ukraine is looking to scale.
00:19:12In fact, part of the reason why we're seeing such huge numbers already is that Ukraine is making the effort
00:19:17to make Dockchain Defense available to as many units as possible.
00:19:21That includes making the program available to combat units that serve under Ukraine's Interior Ministry, as well as its defense
00:19:28industry.
00:19:29Along with traditional combat units, those serving with Ukraine's National Guard, National Police and State Border Guard service can all
00:19:36use the marketplace.
00:19:38And according to a May 16th report in the New Voice of Ukraine, they'll be able to do so for
00:19:43another two years, following the announcement of an extension of their access.
00:19:47The National Guard in particular has already been taking advantage, having spent $800 million allocated to it over the six
00:19:54months leading up to the outlet's article.
00:19:56The rapid scaling of the Dockchain Defense marketplace also mirrors what we've been seeing across all of Ukrainian defense procurement.
00:20:03A simple philosophy seems to be at play. Get it faster, use it faster, hurt Russia faster.
00:20:09In procurement, we've seen Ukraine contract about $8 billion worth of drones during the first half of 2026, which is
00:20:17double the amount procured during the same period in 2025.
00:20:20Dockchain Defense has been a key cog in this speedier procurement process, as has a change in Ukraine's procurement approach,
00:20:27which now focuses on using battlefield data to aid procurement, rather than human judgment.
00:20:33Subjectivity and opinions are taken out of the equation, replaced by cold, hard numbers that show precisely what is needed
00:20:40and where.
00:20:41We would hazard a guess that this aspect of Ukraine's Amazon-like procurement structure is one part of the legacy
00:20:47that former Defense Minister Mikhailo Fedorov leaves behind after his stint was cut short.
00:20:51Speed is what Ukraine needs, and this news of Dockchain Defense's remarkable numbers comes on the back of President Volodymyr
00:20:59Zelensky making the need for that speed abundantly clear.
00:21:02In mid-July, following a review of Ukraine's frontline situation, Zelensky declared that one of the keys to Ukrainian victory
00:21:08is faster weapons supplies.
00:21:10We must not lose a single day in defending Ukraine's independence, our positions, and our people, Zelensky said, drilling the
00:21:17message home.
00:21:18Speed, speed, speed. From order to operation.
00:21:21That's what Ukraine needs, and it's clear that Dockchain Defense and its Amazon Prime-like model have helped turn Ukraine
00:21:28into a 24-7 Russian hunting machine.
00:21:30We'll tell you how impactful all of this has been later.
00:21:33First, you'll probably have a question, what is Dockchain Defense?
00:21:37We've dropped some hints already, but Dockchain Defense is essentially an online marketplace that Ukraine's combat units can use to
00:21:44place orders for drones, robots, and ammunition that they need on the front.
00:21:48The official website describes the platform as enabling the rapid and targeted procurement of drones and other military equipment, and
00:21:56the entire thing has been built around the Ukrainian military's operational needs.
00:21:59Again, it's like Amazon. You get personalized recommendations based on how you shop. Ukraine's soldiers get recommendations based on what
00:22:07the battlefield data says.
00:22:09The Amazon comparisons don't end there. Dockchain Defense is, at its core, an e-commerce platform. That enables the speed
00:22:16we've mentioned.
00:22:17Units aren't paying for their drones out of their own pockets. Ukraine provides funding, and those units use battlefield data
00:22:23to determine which products on the platform work best for their needs.
00:22:27The National Guard example we shared earlier is the perfect example.
00:22:31800 million dollars provided by the government and spent by the people who know exactly where it needs to be
00:22:36spent.
00:22:36It's essentially a component of a decentralized command structure that sees Ukraine trust data and units on the field to
00:22:43know what they need to do their jobs.
00:22:45And units all over Ukraine are using Dockchain Defense. 461 of them and counting have received equipment via the platform.
00:22:53There are even features you would expect to see on Amazon.
00:22:55Delivery tracking is available, as is the ability to leave feedback on drones and other equipment.
00:23:01Streamlining comes to the fore again.
00:23:02When a drone is effective, the feedback will show it, but when it isn't, Ukraine's units will know not to
00:23:08waste their funding.
00:23:09All of this information also helps manufacturers.
00:23:11They can see the order numbers and the feedback, all of which amounts to data they can use to tweak
00:23:16their existing drones, come up with new designs, and ultimately better serve the needs of the troops on the front.
00:23:22It's an ingenious system, and it's also been blended with another brilliant Ukrainian innovation, the BraveOne Marketplace.
00:23:28BraveOne works a little differently from Dockchain Defense.
00:23:32Under BraveOne, Ukrainian units receive what essentially amounts to reward points for claiming Russian scalps.
00:23:38An eliminated soldier grants X number of points, taking out an air defense system, offers Y points, and so on.
00:23:45It's a gamified incentive system, with the points earned being spendable on new drones for the units that earn them.
00:23:51These points allow units to stretch beyond their official budgets, and over 400 units are taking part in the program.
00:23:58As of the end of June, those units have ordered more than 500,000 drones, ground robots, and other systems
00:24:03using rewards points alone.
00:24:06And according to Euromiden Press, those orders can be placed on Dockchain Defense as well as BraveOne.
00:24:11Presumably this means that the two marketplaces are linked, if not directly, then on the back end, allowing Ukraine's units
00:24:17to maximize both funding and points to get the drones they need.
00:24:21As we said, ingenious.
00:24:23So ingenious that others are taking notice.
00:24:25On March 30th, Euromiden Press reported that the U.S. has launched the Unmanned Aircraft Systems Marketplace, or UASM.
00:24:33Designed for the U.S. military, the platform makes acquiring drone-related technology easier for the Army and its various
00:24:39allies, including other countries and government partners.
00:24:42Every product comes with a listing that includes technical specifications and feedback, and orders can be placed directly on the
00:24:49platform.
00:24:49If all of that sounds familiar, then it should.
00:24:52The U.S. has basically copied the Dockchain Defense and BraveOne marketplaces because it recognizes how effective these platforms are,
00:24:59not only in terms of boosting the speed of procurement, but also when it comes to figuring out which drones
00:25:04work, why they work, and how they're best used.
00:25:07We've basically seen the concept come full circle.
00:25:10Amazon is an American company, and it's created the backbone for modern e-commerce platforms.
00:25:15Ukraine saw that backbone, copied it, and shoved it into its own marketplaces to help its units.
00:25:21And now the whole thing has come back around so that the U.S. is taking inspiration from Ukraine.
00:25:26It's a cycle of innovation that makes everybody better.
00:25:29And in Ukraine, that innovation makes every Russian soldier very, very scary.
00:25:35Because at the end of the day, Dockchain Defense exists to make Ukraine's military a more lethal killing machine.
00:25:40That's the last thing that Russia wants, as it knows that these marketplaces have changed everything.
00:25:46But before we dig deeper, this is a reminder that you're watching The Military Show.
00:25:49If you haven't subscribed to the channel yet, now's the perfect time to hit the button before we get back
00:25:54to the video.
00:25:56Now, there are two reasons why Ukraine managing to turn Dockchain Defense into a 24-7 Amazon-like platform is
00:26:02so important.
00:26:04Speed is everything in war, and in Ukraine, drones are key to defeating Russia.
00:26:07We'll start with the speed aspect, seeing as we've already touched on it several times.
00:26:12It's no secret that speed plays a huge role, especially in modern war.
00:26:16Firepower is also crucial, as it always has been.
00:26:19But in the 21st century in particular, the speed at which that firepower gets to the front is as important
00:26:24as the firepower itself.
00:26:26It's all about logistics, and that's really what Dockchain Defense and similar platforms provide.
00:26:31They are nodes, links in a massive supply chain that keeps weapons flowing to the front.
00:26:37Firepower may win battles, but it's reliable and fast logistics that win wars.
00:26:41And that extends beyond simply getting drones to frontline units faster.
00:26:45Food, water, fuel and equipment are all key.
00:26:48No matter how strong an army's weapons may be, it will experience losses both in people and morale if it
00:26:54can't get its logistics sorted out.
00:26:56But it's not just about increasing the speed of delivery.
00:26:58Fast innovation and slashing away at bureaucratic red tape are also vital, and Dockchain Defense offers the perfect example on
00:27:05both fronts.
00:27:06When it comes to innovation, who else would have thought of creating its own version of Amazon dedicated to sending
00:27:12drones out to frontline troops?
00:27:14They may be inspired by existing e-commerce and gamification principles, but Dockchain Defense and Brave One are ideas that
00:27:20come from Ukraine.
00:27:21Those ideas are being copied now, but they have been unique for a long time.
00:27:25The fact that Ukraine not only comes up with these concepts, but executes them quickly at scale and so effectively
00:27:31that they just might work right away is one of the main reasons why it's been able to pull off
00:27:35the battlefield momentum shift that we've seen throughout 2026.
00:27:39As for the bureaucracy angle, Ukraine's Ministry of Defense was among the first to highlight this soon after Dockchain Defense
00:27:45was made available to units.
00:27:47The decision by the Ministry of Defense has eliminated unnecessary bureaucracy in procurement and granted brigades real autonomy.
00:27:54The military can now select the UAVs they need in just a few clicks without lengthy approvals or paperwork, the
00:28:00Ministry said in September 2025.
00:28:02With this system, requests don't have to be kicked up the chain of command, units don't have to wait for
00:28:07approval from a commander and then a general and then somebody in the Ministry of Defense before an order can
00:28:11even begin.
00:28:12They get their funding, check Dockchain Defense and order what they need in the space of a few clicks.
00:28:17Simple, easy and, for Russia, devastatingly effective when it comes to keeping Ukraine's defenses strong and equipping assault units that
00:28:25are liberating territory across the front.
00:28:27Battlefield speed is decisive and Ukraine has been the best example of this fact that anybody has seen in decades.
00:28:33Its ability not only to adapt to what Russia throws at it, but also to innovate independently to serve its
00:28:39own battlefield needs,
00:28:40has shown the world that it's not just having access to the best weapons that wins wars.
00:28:44Knowing how to use what you have and building smart systems around your weapons, such as building up battlefield detection,
00:28:51gathering data to inform decisions and streamlining procurement, all matter just as much as the weapons themselves.
00:28:58The Dockchain Defense platform is the perfect example of several of these concepts coming together.
00:29:03But it's the second reason and the main piece of equipment on that platform that is truly terrifying to Russia.
00:29:09Drones.
00:29:10They have been effective throughout the war and they are even more important to Ukraine than ever before.
00:29:15The numbers tell us everything about how important drones have become to Ukraine.
00:29:19Production alone demonstrates that Ukraine clearly sees the effective use of drones as a potential war winner.
00:29:25According to a July Tech Radar article, Ukraine has confirmed that it will manufacture 10 million drones by the end
00:29:31of 2026.
00:29:32Bolstered by the signing of drone deals, such as the $1.1 billion deal it signed to get more drone
00:29:37funding from the European Union.
00:29:3910 million is a milestone, not a peak.
00:29:42Ukraine's next goal is to get to the point where it's building 20 million drones annually.
00:29:47And plans are reportedly underway to enable this doubling in production.
00:29:50Ukraine has overcome a lot of skepticism to get to this point, as Zelensky himself recalls.
00:29:55I remember when I first publicly announced the state's plan, 1 million drones per year.
00:30:00There was a lot of skepticism everywhere, both inside the country and outside it.
00:30:04We make 10 million drones a year, 10, and it will be 20.
00:30:08Those drones are ever present in Ukraine, on the front, in the near rear, and inside Russia itself.
00:30:13Again, the numbers show us why Ukraine is marching towards such massive drone production.
00:30:17By the beginning of 2026, Politico was reporting that between 70 and 80% of all casualties on both sides
00:30:24of the Ukraine war are being caused by drones.
00:30:27That's actually a bad thing for Russia, even though it's experiencing its own drone success, as Latvia's Constitution Protection Bureau
00:30:34points out.
00:30:35This makes the war more dynamic at the tactical level, but reduces the chance of either side making a strategic
00:30:40breakthrough, the bureau said.
00:30:42Russia needs strategic breakthroughs. Ukraine needs to use its drones to inflict as many casualties as it can while carrying
00:30:49out targeted counterattacks.
00:30:51With drones now being such a key part of the war, it's Ukraine that benefits from their use far more
00:30:56than Russia.
00:30:57The percentages have risen since earlier in the year.
00:31:00According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, drones are responsible for as many as 90% of Russian
00:31:06casualties, which means human-to-human engagements are becoming increasingly rare.
00:31:10Again, good for Ukraine and bad for Russia.
00:31:13This means Russian soldiers are often dying without ever having a chance to push Ukraine's troops out of their fortifications.
00:31:19Drones are just as effective in the occupied territories, where Ukraine is engaged in a growing mid-range strike campaign
00:31:25during 2026.
00:31:26In an August 13th piece, Militanyi revealed that Ukraine's forces carried out over 250 mid-range strikes per day in
00:31:34July, adding up to a total of about 7,800, which itself is 126 times higher than the figure from
00:31:41June.
00:31:42Russia simply can't escape Ukraine's drones.
00:31:44And with its Amazon Prime operations set up via dot-chain defense, Ukraine will only make the situation worse.
00:31:51The massive levels of drone production ensure that products are almost always available on the platform.
00:31:56Combine that with the speed of delivery, and Russia's forces will feel like they're trying to cut heads off a
00:32:01Hydra.
00:32:01When one drone falls, there are always more coming to take its place.
00:32:05Ukraine's emphasis on streamlining drone procurement as it slashes the time needed for drones to reach its units also has
00:32:12another impact.
00:32:12It's cutting the costs of hurting Russia.
00:32:15Business Insider published an interesting piece on August 18th, breaking down the various costs Ukraine incurs for each success that
00:32:22it has.
00:32:23Based on figures from June, Ukraine spends an average of $3,032 per Russian service member struck.
00:32:31The cost goes down to $2,674 per piece of Russian equipment, and $1,487 for hitting an infrastructural facility.
00:32:39These costs are extremely low, and they're made possible by everything that Ukraine is doing with its drones.
00:32:45Weapons that cost hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars aren't irrelevant, but they're also not the only or
00:32:51even primary option anymore.
00:32:53It's all about drones.
00:32:54And everything that Ukraine can do to streamline getting those drones to its troops, as we see with dot-chain
00:32:59defense, helps to drive these costs even lower.
00:33:02For Russia, the most important impact of Ukraine's Amazon Prime operation is what it experiences on the battlefield.
00:33:09Ukraine has become a Russian hunting machine, and the casualty figures bear that claim out.
00:33:14In July, Russia had its worst month of 2026 so far, the Kiev Independent reports.
00:33:1942,860 Russian soldiers bit the dust, succumbing to injury or death in just 31 days.
00:33:25If we assume that the claim that 90% of Russian casualties are now caused by drones is true, that
00:33:31means 38,554 of these casualties were caused by weapons that can be acquired on dot-chain defense.
00:33:38And it gets worse when we expand into the entire year, which has seen Russia lose almost 225,500 soldiers
00:33:45as of the end of July.
00:33:47Using that 90% estimate, that's 202,950 troops lost to Ukraine's drone warfare.
00:33:54This is the entire point.
00:33:56More drones, arriving faster than ever to the front, are killing Russia's 2026 strategy.
00:34:01Oh, and winter is coming.
00:34:03No, a shock new season of Game of Thrones isn't on the way.
00:34:07What we mean is that winter is coming to Ukraine in just a few months.
00:34:10And with winter and fall comes trees shedding their leaves and the disappearance of a whole lot of cover that
00:34:16Russia relies on to infiltrate troops behind the front lines.
00:34:19We have a feeling that activity on dot-chain defense is going to reach new levels as the war heads
00:34:25deeper into 2026.
00:34:26And Russia is going to be paying through the nose with the blood of its own soldiers as a result.
00:34:32It was the one thing that made Russia great, available in spades and serving as the backbone of the country's
00:34:38economy.
00:34:38This one thing gave Putin something that he could hold onto as his special military operations spiraled into a multi
00:34:45-year war.
00:34:46But Ukraine has taken it away.
00:34:48And it's not just the war that has spiraled anymore.
00:34:51Mayhem has erupted in Russia as people are fighting for gasoline in the country of plenty.
00:34:57Or should we say formally plenty?
00:34:59Ukraine's deep strike campaign has caused the sort of pain that Putin never expected and it's Russia's people who are
00:35:06paying the price.
00:35:07Russia thought it was recovering from all of this.
00:35:09By the end of July, a handful of refineries had restarted, leading to IntelliNews reporting that there were signs that
00:35:16Russia's two-month fuel crisis was coming to an end.
00:35:19Caps were being lifted at gas stations and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak declared that the situation was gradually stabilizing.
00:35:27Russia had come through the worst of a months-long campaign against its oil refineries and things were starting to
00:35:33look up.
00:35:35Oh, how wrong Novak was.
00:35:36A second round of fuel shortages has begun.
00:35:39This may be the tipping point for the Russian people.
00:35:42The gas stations that were gradually coming online again have been shut down.
00:35:46In an August 20th report, Euronews revealed that gasoline was now available at only 28% of Russia's fuel stations.
00:35:54We're not speaking about a single region here.
00:35:57We mean all of Russia.
00:35:58That 28% figure comes from the nationwide gasoline monitoring app Gdebentz, and it comes off the back of a
00:36:05week when gasoline was available at 41% of stations.
00:36:09So we're not seeing a one-off here.
00:36:11We're seeing a crisis.
00:36:12A pattern of gas stations running out of the one thing that they sell, and the one thing that Russia
00:36:17is known for producing in bulk.
00:36:19Those fuel limits that were being lifted back in late July are back in force for this second wave of
00:36:24fuel shortages.
00:36:25In Moscow and the surrounding regions, which amount to the crown jewel of Russia, where people are supposed to be
00:36:30shielded from the impact of the war better than anywhere else in the country,
00:36:34gas stations owned by oil giant Gazprom Neft have a 60-litre limit in place for gasoline at regular stations
00:36:40and a 40-litre limit at automated gas stations.
00:36:44Tatneft, which is another major fuel producer, has a 60-litre limit in place for diesel and a 50-litre
00:36:49limit for gasoline.
00:36:50Other regional stations have gone even further, restricting drivers to just 30 litres.
00:36:56Further afield, the situation is more acute.
00:36:58Limits were never lifted in places like Siberia and Russia's Far East.
00:37:02In Crimea, there is practically no gasoline left.
00:37:05As Ukraine continues, a brilliant asymmetric strategy that has isolated the peninsula from mainland Russia.
00:37:11We're seeing the capital and the crown jewel of Russian dominance both struggling to get their hands on a resource
00:37:17that is supposed to be plentiful in Russia.
00:37:19This is humiliating for Putin.
00:37:22Other regions have put even stranger measures in place, in both Lipetsk and Orenburg.
00:37:27Local authorities determine who might get a chance to put some gas in their vehicle's tanks using a strange license
00:37:33plate system.
00:37:34One day, those with plates that contain odd numbers are allowed to queue for gas.
00:37:38The next day, it will be people who have plates containing even numbers.
00:37:42This is happening in the land of supposed fuel plenty.
00:37:45Now, dozens of Russia's regions are having to deal with gasoline and diesel once again no longer being available at
00:37:51the pumps.
00:37:52The queues are getting insane.
00:37:54And so are the people who are forced to spend hours waiting in them.
00:37:57The Kyiv Post reports that witnesses on the ground now claim that queues in Moscow stretch for up to a
00:38:02kilometer.
00:38:03Many will wait with no reward as gas stations are closing due to a lack of products.
00:38:08Others are only available to offer diesel and drivers are once again talking about being forced to visit multiple gas
00:38:14stations only to discover they have nothing left.
00:38:17When they finally find stations that have fuel, they spend hours waiting, desperately hoping that by the time their car
00:38:23manages to make the slow kilometer long crawl, there will be something left for them.
00:38:28Tensions have been rising.
00:38:30What's simmered over the surface has boiled over.
00:38:33Angry Russians, unable to get the one thing that their country is supposed to be able to provide for them,
00:38:38are lashing out.
00:38:39Not at Putin, yet, at each other.
00:38:42Chaos has been erupting as the queues stretch further and further.
00:38:45Footage has started emerging of everyday people pushed to the end of their ropes, getting out of their cars and
00:38:51throwing hands with others who have been forced into this situation by a combination of the Kremlin's incompetence and Ukraine's
00:38:58refinery striking strategy.
00:39:00Every small slight and every minor infraction now serve as triggers as violence is erupting outside the cars that are
00:39:06at a standstill as their drivers wait for their turns at the gas station.
00:39:10The Let's Arm Ukraine X account has no sympathy.
00:39:14Sharing one video of the violence, the channel says,
00:39:17Traditional Russian savagery over fuel has returned to Moscow streets.
00:39:21Nighttime dashcam footage shows grown men brawling in the middle of the road, fighting like animals for the last drops
00:39:27of gasoline.
00:39:27This is the genius of Ukraine's refinery strategy.
00:39:31It's not just about depriving the Kremlin of the money it needs to continue the Ukraine invasion.
00:39:36Every time a refinery goes down, the fuel shortage gets worse and Russia has to deal with its own people.
00:39:42The fabric of Russian society is falling apart at the seams.
00:39:46Russian refining has fallen off a cliff during 2026 as Ukraine's refinery strikes have only grown larger and more aggressive.
00:39:53The idea of hitting refineries is nothing new.
00:39:572025 saw Ukraine use the approach to great effect, creating a fuel crisis in that year too.
00:40:02That crisis lasted for several months before Russia was able to right the ship, at least for a little while.
00:40:09The 2026 situation is much worse.
00:40:11Ukraine's strikes have prompted two separate waves of the fuel crisis,
00:40:15only punctuated by a scant couple of weeks when Russia thought it might be able to get back on track.
00:40:20Russian Forbes calculated that damaged refineries now account for 54% of total national refining capacity.
00:40:27That's over half of Russia's refineries either shut down or operating at limited capacity.
00:40:32Daily fuel production is running so low that a deficit has been created.
00:40:37In July, gasoline output dropped to around 80,000 tons against seasonal demand of up to 120,000 tons per
00:40:44month.
00:40:44In short, that means Russia is producing 35% less gasoline than its people need, which is why we see
00:40:51the cues.
00:40:52Putin describes the situation as non-critical. He is lying.
00:40:56By the beginning of August, Russian oil refining had fallen to a 24-year low, all due to Ukraine's drone
00:41:03strikes.
00:41:03July saw Russia's refineries processing 3.6 million barrels of crude oil per day, which is down from an average
00:41:10of between 5.3 and 5.6 million barrels daily between 2020 and 2025.
00:41:16Russia hasn't seen anything like this since May 2002, and it isn't getting any better.
00:41:22Ukraine struck 18 of Russia's refineries in July, with the highlight being a record-breaking 2,500-kilometer attack against
00:41:30the Omsk refinery in Siberia.
00:41:32But it's not just the number of refineries that are being hit that causes the problem.
00:41:36It's the way that Ukraine hits them.
00:41:38Ukraine isn't just striking a refinery and then calling it a day.
00:41:42Once a refinery is hit, it becomes a target for repeat strikes.
00:41:46The refinery in Ryazan is a perfect example.
00:41:50It's been dealing with halted or disrupted processing since July 29th, as Ukraine's drones keep coming.
00:41:56The same goes for Volgograd and Suratov's refineries.
00:42:00Ukraine strikes once, causes damage, and then strikes again, preventing repair crews from getting to work, which keeps refineries offline
00:42:08for even longer.
00:42:09And it's not just fuel that is being affected.
00:42:12As United24 media points out in an August 19th report, the price of motor oil in Russia has skyrocketed by
00:42:19100%.
00:42:21Even if a Russian can get gasoline in their tank, these price rises for basic lubricants makes basic maintenance more
00:42:28expensive than it's ever been before.
00:42:30The average motorist will feel like they're being struck from all sides, all due to drones flying into refineries dozens,
00:42:36if not hundreds of kilometers away from where they feel the pain.
00:42:40The one thing that those motorists will be hoping for is that the Kremlin has some solutions in the works
00:42:45to end all of the fuel chaos.
00:42:47Erm, about that.
00:42:48The Kremlin has solutions, alright, but they're not what the average Russian person wants to see.
00:42:53Crackdowns, outright lies, and a complete transformation from fuel titan to desperate importer are all the Kremlin can come up
00:43:02with.
00:43:02But before we dig into all of that, this is a reminder that you are watching The Military Show.
00:43:07If you're getting insight from the channel, then don't forget to subscribe and enable notifications so you don't miss any
00:43:12of our videos.
00:43:15Russia's current solution to the Q-Chaos at its gas stations is to unleash a crackdown.
00:43:19In an August 21st report, The Independent said that Putin is having Russian people arrested for complaining about fuel shortages.
00:43:27And there are several examples.
00:43:29Remember Volgograd, region of the repeated strikes that have taken its refinery offline.
00:43:33There, police arrested five people for simply filming a video appeal to the head of Russia's investigative committee, Alexander Bastrykin.
00:43:41That appeal demanded answers for why local officials received priority fuel cards while the public were left with nothing.
00:43:48This was branded as an unauthorized public gathering by the Kremlin and fines have been issued.
00:43:54Five people filming a video.
00:43:56That's an unauthorized public gathering in Russia at this point, which is as insane to say as it sounds.
00:44:02The Independent reports that over in Perm, a local resident named Lev Samolovsky was hit with a $120 fine for
00:44:09simply mentioning a protest on his Telegram channel, which has just 44 followers.
00:44:14That's how deep the surveillance society in Russia goes now.
00:44:18A man with almost no social media presence is still being tracked and punished just for raising the possibility of
00:44:25maybe, just maybe, complaining as part of a group about what Putin's war has brought to Russia's people.
00:44:30This is intimidation.
00:44:32There is no other way to describe it.
00:44:34The Kremlin wants the Russian people to both put up and shut up.
00:44:38After all, if no Russians are complaining about a fuel crisis, then the crisis magically disappears in the eyes of
00:44:43Putin and his cronies.
00:44:44The more voices the Kremlin can silence, the easier it is for Russia's authorities to tell their people that they
00:44:50need to ignore the evidence of their eyes and ears.
00:44:52On August 18th, Russia's Energy Minister Sergei Tseviliov made the ridiculous claim that gasoline and diesel were still available everywhere,
00:45:02while paradoxically claiming that he was aware of the queuing problems and that the ministry was working to solve this
00:45:08problem.
00:45:08Which one is it, Tseviliov? If fuel was everywhere, the problem you're promising to solve wouldn't exist in the first
00:45:13place.
00:45:14We mean, sure, there will be some fuel in the regions where restrictions are in place, so Tseviliov is technically
00:45:19correct, but that doesn't mean much to Russian people who are wasting their lives away waiting for fuel that might
00:45:24have gone by the time they get to the pump.
00:45:26It's such a blasé response to a critical problem.
00:45:29A complete lack of humanity, which is about what we should expect from the Kremlin at this point.
00:45:34But if you want to talk blasé, there's Putin.
00:45:37He's been just as nonchalant as Tseviliov in his dealings with Russia's fuel crisis, claiming,
00:45:42There are no critical consequences from such attacks.
00:45:45There have been none and there cannot be any.
00:45:47But they do, of course, cause us damage.
00:45:49That is obvious.
00:45:50We understand it.
00:45:51We see it.
00:45:52And we know it.
00:45:53Another lie.
00:45:54There are clearly critical consequences and the final part of that statement is filled with empty words.
00:45:59Well, unless the problem is people complaining about fuel in a group of five, in which case the Kremlin is
00:46:04right on it.
00:46:05But even worse, as a second round of fuel shortages rocked his country, Putin was as far away from the
00:46:11problem as he could possibly be.
00:46:12He took a visit to the Kuril Islands near Japan as he attempted to assert Russia's authority over a disputed
00:46:18portion of that island chain.
00:46:19But the geopolitical ramifications of that aren't the story for Russians struggling with the fuel crisis.
00:46:25While he was touring the islands, Putin visited a fish processing plant where he tasted caviar.
00:46:30As his people queued for a basic need at home, Putin lapped up luxury food and even quipped that he
00:46:36enjoyed it so much that he wanted to bring some back to Moscow.
00:46:39That is Putin in a nutshell.
00:46:41He's Marie Antoinette telling his people to eat cake while they suffer.
00:46:45And we all know what happened to her when she took a visit to a French guillotine.
00:46:50To say that Russia is dealing with its people poorly would be an understatement as the second wave of fuel
00:46:55shortages racked the country.
00:46:56But behind the crackdowns and the lies, Russia is trying to take some practical steps to solve its crisis.
00:47:02Trying is the operative word here as what Russia is doing hasn't solved the problem.
00:47:07Instead, every step the Kremlin takes exposes Russia's desperation.
00:47:12Protecting domestic supply has been the first and most logical step taken by the Kremlin.
00:47:18There are bans in place on fuel exports which the Kremlin put in place in July.
00:47:22If you want an indirect admission of just how bad the problem is, that came at the end of July,
00:47:27when Russia announced that bans on exports of gasoline and diesel would extend to January 2027.
00:47:34Keeping fuel in Russia makes sense, but it isn't solving the problem, nor is the loosening of fuel quality standards,
00:47:40which Russia implemented at the beginning of August.
00:47:42Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has signed a decree that allows the production, import, and sale of low-grade Euro 2,
00:47:50Euro 3, and Euro 4 fuels in Russia to July 1, 2027, the Moscow Times reports.
00:47:57So that's great for the Russian people.
00:47:59The Kremlin moved away from these fuels to Euro 5 in 2016 because these low-grade fuels lead to more
00:48:04sulfur being pumped into the air.
00:48:06Enjoy a healthy dose of smog and pollution as you queue at the gas stations, Russians.
00:48:11None of these approaches have worked so far for Russia, and it's here where we see the real signs of
00:48:17weakness come into play.
00:48:18Unable to solve the fuel crisis caused using domestic measures, the Kremlin has had to start begging.
00:48:24Russia, which is one of the oil titans of the world, has gone on its hands and knees to other
00:48:28countries as it started importing fuel that it once made itself by the tanker load.
00:48:33Fuel is already coming into Russia by rail from Belarus, Euronews reports.
00:48:38In July alone, Belarus set export records by sending 212,000 tons of gasoline and 162,000 tons of diesel
00:48:47to Russia.
00:48:48That's a short-term salve.
00:48:50Belarus' major Novopolotsk refinery is going offline in December for scheduled maintenance, which means Russians in the Volga region are
00:48:58soon going to be losing out on the fuel that is tiding them over.
00:49:01In early July, Russia also went begging to Kazakhstan, asking for 50,000 tons of AI-92 gasoline to ease
00:49:09fuel shortages.
00:49:10But that came at the cost of Kazakhstan likely asking for aviation fuel in return, so Putin is being forced
00:49:17to rob Peter to pay Paul for this deal.
00:49:19Other fuel is coming from Morocco and India.
00:49:22The former is a first-time exporter of fuel to Russia, which shows just how far the Kremlin is grasping
00:49:27to solve its fuel problem.
00:49:29As for India, well, that's an interesting story in its own right.
00:49:32India is one of the largest buyers of Russia's crude oil.
00:49:36Russia can still sell crude, which is the base component for refined oil products like gasoline.
00:49:42So what we're seeing is that Russia offloads its crude to India, which then refines that crude into fuel that
00:49:48is sold back to Russia.
00:49:49That isn't supposed to be how this relationship works.
00:49:52The revenue from crude is meant to be taxed and sent into the Ukraine war chest.
00:49:57But now that taxed revenue is heading right back to India, meaning it's of no benefit to Russia at all.
00:50:04All of this leaves Russia in a bad spot.
00:50:06September shortages are coming as Belarus takes one of its two major refineries offline.
00:50:12And it's not like Ukraine is letting up on its refinery strikes.
00:50:15The screw is being twisted.
00:50:17August 21st saw Ukraine carry out another strike against Perm's refinery, which is over 1,500 kilometers away from the
00:50:25Ukraine border.
00:50:25The very next day, drones paid a visit to the Novokoy-Byshevsk refinery in Russia's Samara region, causing a fire
00:50:32at a facility that processes 8.8 million tons of crude oil annually.
00:50:37The only hope Russia has now is for domestic demand to fall to the point where its ruined refining industry
00:50:42can actually come close to keeping up.
00:50:45After all, whatever defenses Russia has in place clearly can't stop Ukraine's drones.
00:50:50There's one more little twist to this tale before we end the video.
00:50:53If we head to South Dagestan, there is a different type of problem brewing.
00:50:58Difficult weather has taken out electricity supplies across the Republic.
00:51:02On August 10th, one incident left 77 settlements in Dagestan without power.
00:51:07Context on why this matters, Dagestan is a Republic of the Russian Federation, and its people aren't happy.
00:51:13Power outages started on August 6th, and they triggered waves of protests that at one point saw crowds flooding streets
00:51:20to bring traffic to an absolute standstill.
00:51:22Authorities tried everything they could to calm the protests down.
00:51:26Appeals were made to the people not to use appliances with high power requirements, and the authorities claimed that malfunctions
00:51:32were to blame.
00:51:33But between August 6th and 13th, Dagestanis had created three barricades.
00:51:38In two of the three cases, power was restored to affected regions faster than it would have been without the
00:51:43protests.
00:51:43We mention all of this for a simple reason.
00:51:46What just happened in Dagestan is a sign that large enough protests in a Russian region can force change.
00:51:52Dagestan, like many of the regions impacted by Russia's fuel crisis right now, is on the outskirts of Russia.
00:51:57It isn't anywhere near Moscow, so it's a low priority for funding.
00:52:01But people power forced a change.
00:52:04Maybe in other regions outside of Moscow, there will be Russian people in the gas station queues who hear about
00:52:09this and pay attention.
00:52:10And they may start thinking, well, if it worked in Dagestan, it could work here.
00:52:14After all, the one thing that made Russia great has been taken away by Ukraine.
00:52:18The only reason that it's happened is that Putin started a war that he can't finish.
00:52:24Kuliningrad is supposed to be Russia's ace in the hole.
00:52:27The small scrap of territory that gives Russia a presence deep enough in Europe that it can be used to
00:52:33threaten the entire Eastern Front, including Poland and the Baltic nations.
00:52:37But there's a problem with running an exclave.
00:52:40Isolation is the downfall.
00:52:42NATO just delivered that message right to Putin's doorstep with a flexing of muscles so powerful that it would have
00:52:48made Arnold Schwarzenegger proud.
00:52:50Russia just collectively wet its pants as NATO has revealed that the Kuliningrad stronghold might not be so strong after
00:52:58all.
00:52:59On August 18th, NATO conducted a planned air exercise over Poland, right next to Poland's border with Kuliningrad.
00:53:06Most of the exercise was focused on Poland's northeast, where that border lies, and it included an assembly of air
00:53:12power that would have sent shivers through the Kremlin's spine.
00:53:15Up to 50 aircraft converged on this one spot in an exercise that Poland says was intended to practice joint
00:53:22air operation scenarios and strengthen interoperability between NATO partners.
00:53:27This exercise, though planned in advance, also seems to have been almost deliberately timed to send a message to Russia.
00:53:34It comes off the back of a report in the German newspaper Bilt, which suggested that NATO is developing what
00:53:39it calls a land warfighting concept that would exist to respond to a Russian attack on the Baltic states, perhaps
00:53:46emanating from Kulining.
00:53:47This concept would be a contingency plan, Liga explains, adding that the document revealing the plan has been drafted under
00:53:55the direction of US Major Andrew Pingray, and it outlines how NATO could respond in the event of an invasion
00:54:01that includes drones and missiles to start, followed by a ground invasion using armadwick.
00:54:07Kuliningrad would be a priority target under this plan.
00:54:10The latest NATO exercise also comes on the back of the large-scale war games that NATO held back in
00:54:16May.
00:54:16Also taking place in Poland, these exercises, which were codenamed Amber Shock 26, involved more than 3,500 soldiers and
00:54:26hundreds of military vehicles from several NATO countries.
00:54:30Those drills were also part of the wider Sabre Strike 26 exercise, which took place in Poland, Finland and Lithuania,
00:54:37all with the intention of NATO figuring out how to move troops quickly across these regions.
00:54:42NATO doesn't need to tell anybody why these troops would need to move so fast.
00:54:46This was yet another exercise, again held near Kuliningrad, designed to prepare for a potential Russian invasion.
00:54:54Wet patches are appearing on Kremlin pants as we speak.
00:54:58And they should be, as NATO's latest exercise, along with everything that came in the months before, sends a very
00:55:04clear message that Kuliningrad is in NATO's sights.
00:55:07This exclave, which is meant to be a strategic asset to Russia, is being exposed as a potential weak point
00:55:14that is very vulnerable to the sheer scale of firepower that NATO can unleash.
00:55:19There are all sorts of reasons why Kuliningrad is so weak right now that we'll be getting to.
00:55:24But before we do, let's dig a little deeper into the exercise itself.
00:55:27We told you that up to 50 aircraft were involved.
00:55:31But there's a lot more to it than that.
00:55:32The air package that NATO sent into Poland was unusually large, and it contained some aircraft that aren't typically seen
00:55:39in aerial exercises carried out near Kuliningrad.
00:55:41Among those aircraft were assets capable of conducting combat strikes as well as electronic warfare, air surveillance and aerial refueling.
00:55:50The spokesperson for Supreme Headquarters, Allied Powers Europe, Colonel Martin O'Donnell, revealed a little more, noting that the August 18th
00:55:58training included fighter aircraft from the US and Norway, as well as a NATO E-3A AWACS, or Airborne Warning
00:56:04and Control System plane, as well as Polish ground troops.
00:56:08We start to get a little bit of a picture of the exercise from this description alone.
00:56:13The AWACS likely acted as an aerial command center and radar station, feeding information to other airframes and troops on
00:56:19the ground as part of the operation.
00:56:21Beyond the size of the air package, NATO's exercise was also notable for its complexity, reports Itamil Radar.
00:56:28The diversity on display in terms of various aerial platforms all being active simultaneously is something that we rarely see
00:56:34in these types of exercises.
00:56:35And the fact that these airframes came from several different countries added another layer of complexity.
00:56:42The presence of several aerial refueling tankers, amounting to a pair of NATO A330 MRTTs, also indicates that NATO's goal
00:56:50in this exercise was to ensure its aircraft could stay airborne for an extended period,
00:56:54allowing fighter jets and bombers to operate further from their home bases.
00:56:59Perhaps those attacking craft will be flying from Europe to Poland, where they refuel and then on to Kaliningrad.
00:57:05NATO hasn't said as much, but it will be very happy to keep Russia guessing.
00:57:09Another interesting aspect of the exercise was the deployment of the EA-37B Compass Corps.
00:57:15According to United 24 Media, an analyst from OSINT Defender has pointed out that several of the aircraft used in
00:57:22the exercise aren't exactly uncommon sites during exercises that take place in Poland.
00:57:27But the EA-37B is different.
00:57:30The deployment of that plane seems to be brand new, and it suggests that this exercise might not just have
00:57:36been about encouraging interoperability, as Poland claims it to be.
00:57:40The EA-37B is an electronic warfare aircraft that is also capable of gathering intelligence, meaning that NATO may have
00:57:48been experimenting with how it could disable Kaliningrad's defenses and hamper missiles and drones fired from the exclave in the
00:57:55future.
00:57:55The EA-37B Compass Corps is a very interesting aircraft. According to Air Force Technology, the initial operating capability of
00:58:03this airframe is expected to be achieved at some point in 2026.
00:58:07Given that it was just flying in Poland, we think it's safe to say that this aircraft is now operational
00:58:11and ready to be deployed.
00:58:13The EA-37B is operated by the US Air Force, and its design is based on the Gulfstream G550 commercial
00:58:20business jet.
00:58:21However, its looks aren't as important as what it does.
00:58:23The EA-37B is intended to be a replacement for the EC-130H Compass Corps, which the US Air Force
00:58:30has operated since 1982, and it provides standoff jamming capabilities.
00:58:34Again, that suggests a potential use when dealing with Kaliningrad, likely in terms of misdirecting drones and missiles fired from
00:58:41the exclave.
00:58:42With its flight ceiling of over 13,700 meters and a top speed of Mach 0.82, the aircraft is
00:58:49also capable of evading air defenses and perhaps even using its electronic warfare capabilities to interfere with those defenses, thus
00:58:56offering key support to attacking aircraft.
00:58:58The aircraft is also believed to be capable of counter information operations, suggesting it could be capable of interfering with
00:59:05devices used by Russia to spread misinformation.
00:59:08All told, it's a very interesting addition to the threat package that NATO clearly has developed to deal with the
00:59:14Kaliningrad problem.
00:59:15And that brings us nicely to why NATO held its exercise at all, and what that Kaliningrad problem really means
00:59:22in the wider scope of Russia's ambitions for Europe.
00:59:25But before we go deeper into these issues, this is the military show.
00:59:28If this is the kind of insight you want to see, make sure you are subscribed and have notifications enabled
00:59:33so you don't miss any of our daily videos.
00:59:36So, what was this exercise really all about?
00:59:39The explanation varies depending on who you ask.
00:59:42According to Itamil Radar, the most interesting thing about the exercise was the sheer scale of it all.
00:59:48NATO running drills in Poland and near Kaliningrad is nothing new.
00:59:51We even detailed another exercise that took place earlier in 2026, just a few minutes ago.
00:59:56However, it's the combination of capabilities presented here that is remarkable.
01:00:01What NATO has just pulled off is an exercise involving E3As, which offer wide command and control functions,
01:00:07fighter jets, which would clearly go on the attack against border threats, i.e. Kaliningrad,
01:00:11and electronic warfare capabilities that haven't been seen in this kind of exercise before.
01:00:16Aerial refueling tankers also playing a role suggests that NATO is readying itself for a sustained aerial campaign against Kaliningrad,
01:00:23perhaps with the intention of shutting the exclave down fast and early should a war break out with Russia.
01:00:29The point is that this wasn't just a collection of unrelated sorties,
01:00:33it was a complete operational package very purposefully deployed into northern Poland
01:00:38to send a message to Russia about just how screwed Kaliningrad would be if NATO went on the attack.
01:00:45Remember those wet patches in the Kremlin pants we mentioned?
01:00:48This message is why they've appeared.
01:00:50However, officially, this isn't what the exercise was about.
01:00:53Poland's operational command, which was heavily involved,
01:00:56claims that this was an exercise coordinated by NATO and completely unrelated to any Russian Air Force activity.
01:01:02That's a nod to a flurry of incidents involving Russia and Poland that we'll get to soon.
01:01:06Rather, the operation had nothing to do with Russia at all.
01:01:09It was about strengthening cooperation between NATO allied forces.
01:01:13That's the official line, sure, but we don't think anybody really believed,
01:01:17even if these exercises were planned weeks or months in advance.
01:01:20And to add an extra wrinkle to proceedings,
01:01:23Stars and Stripes claims that US officials say that this exercise was really about deterrence,
01:01:27and right now there is only one power in Europe that needs to be deterred – Russia.
01:01:32The US involvement in this exercise comes on the back of that flurry of Polish activity we mentioned.
01:01:38On August 6th, the Wall Street Journal reported that US intelligence is suggesting
01:01:42that Russia may soon attempt to test NATO's resolve with some sort of limited incursion.
01:01:47In the past, this type of activity was thought unlikely due to the Ukraine invasion.
01:01:51But as Putin feels the squeeze from that invasion not going Russia's way, he gets desperate.
01:01:56And that desperation could lead to him expanding the conflict,
01:02:00be that through increased hybrid warfare activity or even a limited ground invasion,
01:02:05such as occupying border territory in a Baltic state.
01:02:08Either way, something is coming, the US claims.
01:02:11And this report gains credibility because it came on the back of a July 3rd claim by US intelligence
01:02:16that Russia was planning some sort of attack on Poland, again as a test of NATO resolve.
01:02:21What happened just a few weeks after that report, Russia sent a missile into Polish territory.
01:02:26At the end of July, a Russian Kh-101 missile crossed the border shared by Ukraine and Poland.
01:02:33It then flew 90 kilometers deep into Poland, shadowed by aircraft practically the entire way,
01:02:38before crashing down and exploding in an empty field.
01:02:42Russia, of course, claims no responsibility.
01:02:44It was all just an accident.
01:02:46And the missile must have ended up going off course.
01:02:48The incident happened during a large Russian aerial assault against Ukraine that involved 74 missiles and 284 Shahid-type drones.
01:02:57Poland's deputy defense minister, Cesare Tomczyk, was forthright in calling out the incident for what it really was.
01:03:03It was a provocation, an intention, an alliance test.
01:03:07In this case, the next weeks will probably give us more answers.
01:03:10Let's not have any illusions.
01:03:12This type of situation or such provocations will happen, Tomczyk declared on July 31st.
01:03:17He added that around 20 of Russia's missiles were heading in Poland's direction,
01:03:21but were shot down by Ukraine's air defenses, meaning the incursion could have been even worse.
01:03:26The timing all lines up.
01:03:28The U.S. said that Russia was planning something in Poland, and something happened less than a month later.
01:03:33Now the U.S. says that Russia has some other incursion planned.
01:03:37NATO needs to be prepared, and an operation designed to show Russia just how quickly Kaliningrad would be attacked
01:03:43may be the best way to show Putin that NATO is ready.
01:03:46There's more to the deterrent angle, too.
01:03:49Unmasking Russia points out that Russia has been making some strange naval movements in the Baltic region.
01:03:54In particular, one of Russia's most advanced warships, the Admiral Kazatonov, was seen passing by Ferman,
01:04:01which is a German island, as it made its way out of Baltic waters.
01:04:04This is a dangerous ship.
01:04:06The Admiral Kazatonov is capable of launching Zircon missiles, which are nuclear-capable and travel at hypersonic speeds.
01:04:12Other Russian warships have also been spotted making strange moves near Ferman in recent weeks, including the Admiral Levchenko.
01:04:19And on top of all of that, Putin, in a frothing rage over Western interceptions of Russian Shadow Fleet vessels,
01:04:25has threatened that Russia will soon retaliate by seizing European ships.
01:04:29Perhaps that explains why Russian warships are suddenly so active in the Baltic region.
01:04:34So again, NATO needed to send a message.
01:04:36Not just for Poland, but for the Baltic states and any European nation that is threatened by Putin.
01:04:41As Bundeswehr University military expert Carlo Masala puts it, one can only hope that Russia understood the message.
01:04:49Back off now, or Kuliningrad gets it.
01:04:52That brings us nicely back to the location that NATO chose to carry out its exercise.
01:04:56So many aircraft and ground forces operating in northern Poland is no coincidence.
01:05:02Kuliningrad is the target, and there are plenty of reasons why NATO is looking to use this particular Russian exclave
01:05:07as a pressure point against Putin.
01:05:09There is what Kuliningrad is supposed to be, and what it actually is to consider.
01:05:14For Russia, Kuliningrad is supposed to be both a stronghold and an ever-present threat that Russia can use to
01:05:20intimidate the nations that make up NATO's eastern flank.
01:05:23To bolster that threat, Russia houses air defense systems, missile complexes, and a host of military infrastructure in the exclave,
01:05:30in addition to using it to support Russia's Baltic fleet.
01:05:33According to CNA, this use of Kuliningrad is fairly recent.
01:05:37Through the 1990s and up to early 2016, Kuliningrad hosted military forces, but they were relatively weak.
01:05:43It wasn't until 2021, on the eve of the Ukraine invasion, that Putin decided he needed to beef up the
01:05:49exclave.
01:05:50Missiles, armored vehicles, warships, and troops all made their way into Kuliningrad.
01:05:54On the troop side of things, Russia deployed the 11th Army Corps, containing up to 18,000 soldiers, and there
01:06:01may be more besides.
01:06:02The Baltic fleet that Kuliningrad supports is also dangerous, containing 52 surface ships,
01:06:07some of which are among the most advanced in Russia's navy, as well as a Kilo-class submarine.
01:06:13Kuliningrad is also located close to the Sovolky Gap, which is a 65-kilometer stretch of land that cuts through
01:06:19the Polish and Lithuanian border, connecting to Belarus.
01:06:22Everything that we've just shared is supposed to ensure that NATO, and particularly the eastern flank, is scared of Kuliningrad.
01:06:29But as we said, there is a difference between how Russia tries to present Kuliningrad and what it actually represents
01:06:35at play.
01:06:36And what Kuliningrad actually represents, which becomes clearer with every passing day that Russia fails in the Ukraine war, is
01:06:43a strategic weak link for Russia.
01:06:45Isolation is a problem.
01:06:47Though connected to Russia via Baltic waters, Kuliningrad is located about 360 kilometers away from the Russian mainland.
01:06:54Not ideal for Russia if it ends up in a fight where it needs to keep Kuliningrad supplied, and it's
01:06:58cut off by a Baltic blockade and NATO troops on the eastern flank.
01:07:02Kuliningrad's weakness is also demonstrated by its reliance on Russian subsidies to survive, even when the exclave isn't actively involved
01:07:09in a conflict.
01:07:10In December 2025, the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine revealed that Russian authorities were planning to allocate about $60 million
01:07:17to seaborne transport, all to support Kuliningrad.
01:07:20Cut off as it is, Kuliningrad is ripe for issues related to inflation, as store prices rocket up when supply
01:07:27issues arise.
01:07:28All of this is important in the context of NATO's latest exercise, because it reveals that Kuliningrad isn't the stronghold
01:07:34Russia wants it to be.
01:07:35Yes, weapons may be hosted there, but stranded hundreds of kilometers away from Russia, and surrounded on all sides by
01:07:42NATO nations,
01:07:43Kuliningrad is ripe to be the very first piece of Russian territory that Putin loses if he starts a war
01:07:48with NATO.
01:07:49And for Putin, any loss of territory is a humiliation that would make it harder for him to justify an
01:07:54already insane war to the Russian people.
01:07:56Up to 50 aircraft involved in one of NATO's most complex drills yet sends a message.
01:08:02It also reinforces a message that NATO has sent before, which is that Kuliningrad is vulnerable.
01:08:08Back in July 2025, US Army Europe and Africa Commander General Chris Donohue said that NATO forces would be able
01:08:15to capture Kuliningrad in a timeframe that is unheard of.
01:08:19The implication is that a combination of aerial bombardment and ground forces heading into the exclave would take Kuliningrad down
01:08:26from the ground faster than ever thought possible.
01:08:29It just so happens that the latest NATO exercise involved aerial power and ground forces all converged right on Kuliningrad's
01:08:36doorstep.
01:08:37The former commanding general of US Army Europe Ben Hodges doubled down on this claim a few months later,
01:08:43stating that the likes of Kuliningrad and places like Sevastopol in the Crimean Peninsula would be eliminated in the first
01:08:49hours of a war between NATO and Russia.
01:08:51And Russia wouldn't be able to do anything about it due to Kuliningrad being isolated and because Russia's economy has
01:08:58been weakened to the point where it can't support Kuliningrad anywhere near enough for the exclave to serve as the
01:09:03fortress that Putin wants it to be.
01:09:05So when NATO flexes its muscles close to Kuliningrad, it's not acting like a gym bro who has fallen in
01:09:10love with the nearest mirror.
01:09:11There is purpose behind the exercise.
01:09:14What just happened in Poland is the proof that backs all of these claims of Kuliningrad's weakness.
01:09:18It's NATO showing Russia that the organization has the ability to amass a varied array of air power, all of
01:09:24which can coordinate to destroy a target in record time.
01:09:27The implied target was Kuliningrad.
01:09:30If Russia is going to provoke NATO allies, NATO is going to make sure that Putin and the Kremlin know
01:09:35just how quickly Russia's vulnerable exclave will fall.
01:09:38And as NATO flexes, terrifying everybody in the Kremlin, Ukraine strikes.
01:09:44Exacerbating the economic problems that have left Kuliningrad so weak is a relentless Ukrainian campaign against Russian oil refining that
01:09:51has left Russia begging for help from its neighbors.
01:09:54Find out more about the impact of that deep strike strategy in our video.
01:09:58But before you go, everything you see here is researched, verified and produced by real people.
01:10:04If you value that, subscribe, comment below and consider becoming a member for access to exclusive content.
01:10:10And thank you, as always, for watching.