00:00Something once hard to imagine has just happened in Germany. For the first time since Nazi Germany
00:03in World War II, the chances of a hard right party taking control of a state government have
00:07grown significantly, putting even greater political pressure on German Chancellor Mertz.
00:10On September 6th, the state parliamentary elections were held in Saxony-Anhalt.
00:14The AFD won 44.1% of the vote, while the Christian Democratic Union, led by German
00:18Chancellor Mertz, garnered 17.1%. They won 39 out of a total of 83 seats, although a standalone
00:24majority requires 42 seats. It was an overwhelming victory. Let's look at the seat count in more
00:28detail. The German Christian Democratic Union won 15 seats. The Social Democratic Party of Germany
00:338 seats, the Green Party 8 seats, the Left Party 8 seats, and the Sarah-Wagenknecht Alliance won
00:375 seats above all. As the vote counting progressed, grim results followed, and it was confirmed that
00:42the AFD received overwhelming support across all occupational groups. Among voters who identified
00:46themselves as laborers, the AFD vote share reached a whopping 61%. Except for voters aged 70 and older,
00:53overwhelming support for the AFD continued across all age groups. Above all, it is also worth noting
00:57that the AFD's Saxony-Anhalt branch has been classified as an extremist organization by
01:01German security agencies. Yet despite this assessment, support for the AFD remains extremely
01:06strong, particularly in certain regions. When you look at the support bases of German
01:10political parties on a map, a fairly distinct pattern emerges. Eastern Germany. You can see
01:15that AFD's support is heavily concentrated in the states that once belonged to East Germany.
01:19Not just in Saxony-Anhalt, but also in Saxony, Thuringia, Brandenburg, Mecklenburg,
01:23Vorpomern, and other areas of the former East Germany, the AFD has consistently recorded high
01:28vote shares. This Saxony-Anhalt state election can be seen as the clearest example yet of how far
01:33this regional support has spread. The problem, however, is that the AFD is an extremely radical
01:37party. They not only advocate for leaving the EU, but also demand the withdrawal of US troops stationed
01:43in Germany, forging ties with Russia and halting aid to Ukraine, making them the most radical among
01:47Europe's hard right parties. In particular, a hard right party has not won a state election and taken
01:51in power in Germany since the Nazi era. In 1932, the Nazi party effectively took control of the
01:55state government of Thuringia, and the year after Hitler took power, Saxony and other states were
01:59absorbed into the Nazi dictatorship was the last time. But now, the stage is set for hard right
02:03forces to lead a state government. What's more, the AFD is even demanding that US forces stationed
02:07in Germany pull out, with AFD co-leader Tino Krupalla arguing that Germany must break free from
02:11American military influence and establish an independent diplomatic path, demanding the withdrawal
02:15of US troops stationed in Germany and the removal of nuclear weapons deployed on German soil.
02:19They are even demanding the complete removal. This can be seen as a fundamental challenge by
02:23the AFD to Germany's existing security framework built around the US and NATO. What the AFD advocates
02:28is distancing themselves from the US while simultaneously restoring relations with Russia.
02:32Since the war in Ukraine, Germany has defined Russia as a major security threat,
02:36providing military support to Ukraine and participating in sanctions against Russia, but
02:39the AFD argues that these policies do not serve Germany's national interests. They call for restoring
02:44economic and diplomatic relations with Russia, and rather than relying on US military power for
02:49European security, they believe European nations should make decisions independently. Thus,
02:53the diplomatic autonomy the AFD speaks of is being pursued by reducing security cooperation with
02:57the US and re-expanding ties with Russia, which deems significantly from the foreign policy of
03:02traditional German parties. If such policies were actually adopted as the German government's official
03:07line, major changes would also occur in the European security order, as Germany plays a crucial role in
03:12NATO's European defense. A weakened military relationship with the US could thus also impact
03:16the burden sharing within NATO. Furthermore, if Germany seeks to improve relations with Russia,
03:21new conflicts could arise among European nations over their stances on aid to Ukraine and sanctions
03:25against Russia. Therefore, the AFD's calls for the withdrawal of US troops stationed in Germany,
03:29and the restoration of relations with Russia, go beyond simply shifting the direction of foreign policy,
03:34sparking a fundamental debate over which security path Germany should choose between the US and Russia
03:38moving forward. And what we need to pay attention to in this election is that the AFD's support doesn't
03:42manifest in the same way in cities and rural areas. In rural areas and small towns of East Germany,
03:47this trust toward the established parties is relatively strong, and policies of the central
03:50government fail to properly reflect the reality of local residents. Although generations have changed
03:55since reunification, complaints still linger that the economic divide between West and East Germany
03:59hasn't been completely resolved. On top of this, with rapid depopulation and aging, concerns are also
04:04growing that local communities are shrinking. As the younger population migrates to other regions,
04:08the average age of the remaining residents has increased, and schools and hospitals,
04:11along with public transit and other public services, have become critical challenges for
04:15some regions to even maintain. In such an environment, how to improve jobs and living
04:19conditions in their own area can become a far more direct concern for voters than the grand national
04:23policies announced by central politics in Berlin. However, as the perception grows that
04:27established centrist parties are failing to offer sufficient solutions to these local demands,
04:31analyses suggest that the AFD is absorbing that discontent. The Financial Times also noted that
04:35the high level of support for the AFD in Saxony-Anhalt should not be overly extrapolated to represent the
04:40political leanings of Germany as a whole while still emphasizing that a stagnant local economy
04:43and dissatisfaction with the political establishment are driving support toward extremist parties.
04:47In this region especially, there is still a sense of alienation toward the political and economic
04:51systems that have long been centered around West Germany. Even though a long time has passed since
04:55German reunification, some residents in the East feel that they do not have enough influence in the
04:58nation's major decision-making processes. Feeling left behind. This kind of regional discontent is
05:03difficult to explain through a single policy alone. It stems from dissatisfaction with political
05:07representation, economic disparities, and the combined impact of demographic shifts. The AFD is actively
05:12using this very sentiment as a political message, portraying themselves as an alternative to Berlin's
05:17political establishment and directly appealing to voters frustrated with the federal government and
05:21mainstream parties. Therefore, the 40% support level seen in this Saxony-Anhalt election demonstrates just how
05:27strong a political base the AFD has secured in the region. At the same time, it shows that the
05:31political divide remaining between Germany's East and West has yet to be bridged and remains substantial.
05:36The problem is that the AFD's surge puts immense pressure on the political establishment. According
05:40to a DW report, this election posed a serious challenge to the coalition government led by Chancellor
05:45Mertz noting that, in recent months, rumors have been circulating in Berlin that Chancellor Mertz could
05:49either step down on his own after this election or be forced by his party to resign. For instance,
05:54Chancellor Mertz set a goal to cut the AFD's support in half before being elected Chancellor in May
05:592025 by adopting hardline immigration policies, but he failed to succeed and with the CDU's approval
06:05ratings actually falling instead, he faced heavy criticism within the party. As a result,
06:10Chancellor Mertz is now left with two choices. One option is to uphold the firewall principle,
06:15with the CDU joining hands with the Greens, the Social Democrats, former Communist factions,
06:19and hardline left-wing populists to form an anti-AFD state government. The other is granting
06:23the Saxony-Anhalt CDU the discretion to autonomously determine its relationship with the AFD.
06:28Ultimately, the latter could effectively pave the way for the AFD to form a state government.
06:32Furthermore, until now, the German political establishment had been blocking the AFD from
06:35forming a government through what is known as the firewall. However, this has also been put at
06:39great risk. Even within the CDU, voices are already emerging arguing that their relationship
06:43with the AFD needs to be redefined if they adhere to the firewall principle. They could face backlash
06:47from local CDU factions, and if they tolerate cooperating with the AFD, they would face severe
06:51criticism not only from the opposition within the party, but also from the federal government's
06:54coalition partners, the Social Democratic Party, triggering fierce opposition. And what is crucial
06:58here is that, regardless of whether the AFD actually forms a state government, this election
07:01has significantly amplified the AFD's influence across German politics. Having secured 39 seats in
07:06the state parliament, and winning the most seats, it has become difficult to ignore the AFD's presence
07:10when deciding what policies will be discussed in Saxony-Anhalt moving forward. Even if other parties form a
07:15coalition government, a situation has been created where they must respond to the issues raised by the AFD,
07:18which has become the largest force in the state parliament. Especially regarding immigration and
07:21refugees, public safety and energy policy, and issues like relations with Russia are likely to
07:25take up an even bigger share of political debates at the state government level going forward. The
07:29bigger problem is the response from other parties. From the standpoint of established conservative
07:32parties like the Christian Democratic Union, bringing back voters who shifted to the AFD,
07:35could fuel growing calls to adopt hard-aligned policies on issues such as immigration and public
07:39safety. Conversely, since arguments for maintaining a clear distinction from the AFD may also emerge,
07:44internal debates over the CDU's policy direction are likely to intensify as well.
07:47If that happens, even if the AFD doesn't directly participate in government, other parties could
07:51end up modifying their policies and campaign strategies mindful of the AFD's base. Consequently,
07:55the shifts seen in this election won't just be limited to the composition of state governments,
07:58but could also influence which agendas the entire German political sphere prioritizes,
08:03and what policies it chooses to adopt. Looking at the current situation in Germany,
08:07the AFD's recent election results don't seem to be a temporary fluke. Support for the AFD is steadily
08:11climbing over time. If the AFD continues to maintain strong support in other elections,
08:15it will be hard to simply brush off the AFD as just a localized phenomenon. Consequently,
08:20how to keep the AFD in check and how to win back its supporters will inevitably become the
08:24central issues for the German political establishment. Thank you.
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