00:01well it's it's tough news you know we know that first home buyer activity was really boosted by
00:07the extension of the five percent deposit scheme last year it did lead to a lot of first home
00:12buyers coming to market we did then have the budget which has led to very low demand from
00:19investors so that's been good for first home buyers but then on the other hand another interest
00:25rate hike is very challenging it is it does really put a lot of pressure on affordability and it is
00:31leading to a drawback in first home buyer activity we can see it in abs housing finance data that the
00:37number of first home buyers is is dropping and we do expect to continue to fall we're in quite an
00:42unusual situation because we are seeing house prices fall at this point a lot to do with interest
00:47rate hikes and also the budget but on the other hand we are seeing rents starting to rise again so
00:53it makes sense when we see a withdrawal of investor activity it does mean fewer rental properties
00:58coming to market we have really big problems in sydney at the moment the number of available
01:03rental properties in sydney is at almost a 10 year low at this point compared to 10 years ago we
01:09have
01:10half a million more people so obviously that does put more pressure on on housing demand so we do expect
01:16rents to continue to increase the budget didn't help primarily because it did lead to that drawback in
01:22investor activity and i think this is one of the problematic issues is that you know we do want
01:27more affordable housing we know housing is expensive in australia but um for prices to drop at the expense
01:33of rental growth is is certainly not what we would want to i mean i don't think it's something that
01:38we
01:38want to to want to achieve we do expect it to continue to fall so year on year we're still
01:43recording
01:44a two percent increase in australian house prices but since may we have seen a fall in in every capital
01:50city except for darwin we will get some more property price data coming in tomorrow for the
01:56september quarter um for september we do expect prices to drop in pretty much continue to drop in
02:02every every capital city we did see a little bit of strength in some of the premium markets in sydney
02:08and melbourne in august but obviously with that rate hike we do expect that to be reversed we don't expect
02:15to see growth continuing in those premium markets at this point um either you know we do expect it to
02:21continue for for a little bit i mean for well at least till the end of the year um particularly
02:26if we
02:26do see another rate hike but on the other hand um we are also seeing a significant decline in building
02:33approvals and we'll have building approval data coming out today uh we do we saw a drop in in august
02:39we
02:40expect to see another drop in in september um so even though prices are coming back we are seeing
02:45continued pressure on housing supply and and certainly moving further and further away from
02:50those that 1.2 million target that the federal government set out pro released their mortgage
02:56data in the june quarter and what what it did find is that people are starting to spend down um
03:03savings
03:03um certainly in offset accounts um banks are being very accommodating uh in terms of of trying to help
03:10people uh we have hit a record high in the number of people moving to interest only so at this
03:16point it
03:17does look like people people are adjusting you know i certainly think it is stretching people's
03:21household budgets you know we know people are feeling quite overwhelmed with with a lot of the costs at
03:27this point but um at this point you know we we know that banks aren't in a financial uh well
03:34they
03:34are in a financial situation to help people out and and you know they certainly seem to be adjusting the
03:40way that people are taking on their mortgages when we don't often see forced sales in in australia
03:46um when we have a look at the number of people that are coming to market we're not seeing a
03:50rapid rise
03:50in in properties selling and we we think that's probably one of the main reasons that even though
03:55we are seeing uh very low levels of buyer activity we can see it in our open home data it's
04:01it is
04:01looking particularly low the number of people that are interested in buying but on the other hand we're
04:06not seeing a rapid rise in the number of properties coming to market so as opposed to people selling
04:11because because of housing distress it certainly hasn't come to that just yet it may um but that does
04:18seem to be one of the factors that's keeping pricing uh not falling as as rapidly as it otherwise would
04:24if we do start to see distressed selling that's a point at which we may see quite a rapid decline
04:29in
04:30pricing
04:30and we'll see you next time
04:30and we'll see you next time
04:31and we'll see you next time
04:31and we'll see you next time
04:31and we'll see you next time
04:31and we'll see you next time
04:33and we'll see you next time
04:33and we'll see you next time
04:34and we'll see you next time
04:34and we'll see you next time
04:35and we'll see you next time
04:35and we'll see you next time
04:36and we'll see you next time
04:36and we'll see you next time
