00:00Hi there and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the week ahead.
00:04Autumn so far has been relatively quiet as far as the weather is concerned, but that's
00:08all about to change.
00:10We will see spells of wind and some useful rain.
00:14This gives you an idea of how much rain we can expect across various parts of the UK
00:19through the next five days.
00:21Starting off Monday, this shows the rolling rain accumulations as they tot up through
00:26the week ahead and actually a marked contrast compared with the last few months where rain
00:31has been focused more towards the north-west.
00:33This week the spells of rain will arrive from the south-west, so these brighter colours by
00:37the end of the week will emerge across parts of Wales, the south and south-west of England
00:42in particular.
00:43That's where rain amounts will exceed 100 millimetres and now a lot of that will be useful rain of
00:49course.
00:49We do need it at the moment in the south of the UK.
00:53It could be some minor issues with some of the heavier rain falling in a short space
00:59of time.
00:59But all in all, a wet week of weather is expected, especially towards the south and south-west.
01:06It's also going to be windy.
01:08We don't need the wind, but that is what we're going to experience at times.
01:13Now the jet stream in the last few weeks has been strong and active, but mostly it's been
01:20pushed well to the north of the UK and that's how we start this week.
01:24High pressure pushing it to the north, but that high pressure loses its influence over
01:30the next couple of days, allowing another branch of the jet stream to arrive flying above the
01:35Atlantic and more shifted to the south.
01:38That will send a succession of low pressure systems in from the Atlantic starting Tuesday
01:45and then weather front after weather front, band of rain after band of rain with often
01:51tightly packed isobars and it's Thursday into Friday that we're keeping a close eye on for
01:56potentially the most impactful weather this week, this area of low pressure which deepens
02:01rapidly to the north of the jet stream which will be shifted south.
02:05That's not the end of it though, we see further areas of low pressure come through as we end
02:10the week.
02:11More on a north shifted path, but more potential for unsettled, wet, windy weather continuing
02:17through Saturday and into Sunday.
02:19Now rewinding back to the current time, and we've still got the influence of this area of
02:24high pressure just sitting to the east of the UK as we begin Tuesday, but it's a waning
02:30influence on the periphery of that.
02:32We've got a weather front moving up from the south, bringing a spell of cloud and rain.
02:37In fact, it is widely a gloomy and damp start to Tuesday across the UK, heavier spells of
02:43rain moving into the central and southern part of England, pushing through the Midlands,
02:47parts of Wales by the afternoon, edging its way west for a time and then further east into
02:53the afternoon.
02:53Something a little brighter emerging for Northern Ireland, West Wales, the southwest, albeit
02:59with some showers.
03:00And it's not going to feel particularly warm under that rain.
03:03We have had well above average temperatures quite frequently during the autumn so far.
03:07This week, just as will be the case on Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will be close to if
03:12not below average.
03:13And certainly where we've got the rain throughout much of the day, it's going to feel on the cold
03:16side.
03:16Fifteen Celsius, the top temperature towards the southwest, low teens, low double figures
03:21elsewhere.
03:22The rain does clear its way eastwards.
03:24It's a relatively slow moving front, this one.
03:27And then the next weather front moves in from the west on Tuesday night into the start of
03:32Wednesday.
03:32So, not much of a respite.
03:34This will bring another spell of rain and strengthening winds.
03:38Here are the likely wind gusts on Wednesday morning.
03:41You can see the area of low pressure there.
03:43And anything coloured in is 50 mile per hour plus, as far as the gusts are concerned.
03:48So, 50 mile per hour gusts around coasts of Wales and the southwest early Wednesday morning.
03:52And then those blustery conditions travel along the south coast into the afternoon.
03:57Quite blustery towards the northwest of Scotland as well, in between lighter winds.
04:01But that area of low pressure will bring more widely a spell of rain.
04:07Heavy rain to start things off across Wales and the southwest.
04:10The rain then moves into the Midlands, the southeast, northern England.
04:13Southern Scotland, Northern Ireland, a wet start to the day.
04:16And then it turns more showery into the afternoon.
04:18We'll see fairly frequent showers in the west of Scotland.
04:22Another band of rain brings a damp day to Orkney and then eventually Shetland.
04:27You can see the temperatures though.
04:28Not only will it be often wet, but it will be windy.
04:31And that's going to impact the temperatures.
04:3311 to 15 Celsius.
04:35Probably feeling colder than that given the unsettled nature of things throughout Wednesday.
04:41Now, Wednesday night is going to be a chilly one in places.
04:44A touch of frost in sheltered spots.
04:46But a bright start to the day.
04:48Some showers around first thing.
04:49They tend to ease into the afternoon.
04:52An interlude between low pressure systems, in other words.
04:55With showers mostly continuing across northwest Scotland.
04:59Bright skies for many elsewhere.
05:01Lighter winds for a time.
05:02So, 15, 16 Celsius feeling a little bit warmer compared with Wednesday.
05:06It's not going to last though.
05:07You can see the cloud building towards the southwest at the end of the day.
05:11And the next spell of rain waiting in the winds.
05:13Not only will this bring some heavy rain, it will also bring potentially the strongest winds of the week.
05:20And that's because of this really quite marked temperature contrast further to the west of the UK.
05:26This plunge of cold air through the Davis Strait clashing with warmer air coming up to the subtropics.
05:31And a weather front forming at the boundary.
05:34Not only that, but that clash of cold with warm will fire up the jet stream on its south shifted
05:40track.
05:41And the low moves onto the north of the jet stream.
05:45That allows it to spin up rapidly on Thursday night.
05:49Reaching a central pressure nadir of around 975 to 985 hectopascals on Thursday night.
05:58So, a deep low.
06:00And actually, when you compare the different computer models at the moment,
06:04most of them have a similar depth low and similar timings for it to push in across southern parts of
06:09the UK.
06:10There are some minor differences in terms of its exact track.
06:13Whether it runs along southern parts of the UK or it sends its strongest winds into northern France.
06:19That's something that we'll refine over the next few days.
06:22This is something of a worst case scenario as far as wind gusts are concerned.
06:27But the track of the low, I think we're reasonably happy that it will take something of a southern UK
06:35track on Thursday night into the start of Friday.
06:39You can see widely inland and around coastal areas wind gusts in excess of 50 miles an hour.
06:44With the risk of 70 mile per hour or more wind gusts around some of these southwestern and then later
06:51southern and southeastern coasts.
06:53So, the strongest winds moving through during Friday morning accompanied by heavy rain as well could cause some issues.
07:01We've already issued a yellow warning for this part of the UK.
07:03But, of course, this will be refined over the next few days.
07:06We're still four days ahead of this system.
07:08So, yeah, keeping a close eye on this, it's going to be a widely unsettled start to the day.
07:13On Friday, spells of rain for much of England, Wales into southern and eastern Scotland, Northern Ireland as well.
07:18The heaviest and most persistent rain pushes northeast through the day.
07:22It could be a very wet end of the day for northeast England, southeast Scotland, for example.
07:26But some uncertainty about the track of the heavier rain at the end of the day.
07:29And then showers push in behind the more persistent rain.
07:33Northern and northwestern Scotland a few showers about, but drier and less windy here compared with many other parts of
07:40the country.
07:41And with all of that wind and the rain, it is going to feel unpleasant.
07:46Temperatures of 11 to 13 Celsius.
07:49That low does eventually move on and fill later Friday.
07:53Then a brief bump in the ice bars, a brief ridge of high pressure at the start of Saturday.
07:58So, a drier and brighter start to the weekend for many places.
08:01It doesn't last, though.
08:03The next low rolls in from the Atlantic.
08:05This one taking a more northward track to take it into the north of Scotland, Northern Ireland, for example.
08:12But you can see quite widely tightly packed ice bars.
08:15So, again, widely a windy spell of weather Saturday night going into Sunday with rain followed by blustery showers.
08:23Lots of weather to keep up with this week then.
08:25And the best way to keep up with all that weather is through our YouTube channel or through our website
08:29and app.
