00:00Think back to the nor'easter from three and a half weeks ago, that was driven by temperature contrasts here
00:04near the surface, and there were fronts attached.
00:07Now, the chunk of this storm here that had fronts is all the way to the east. That's broken off.
00:12So now, this leftover swirl of low pressure has been spinning over water temps at about 79, 80, 81 degrees,
00:20just long enough.
00:21Center of the storm is due east of approximately Virginia Beach, or the south side of the Chesapeake Bay.
00:26So here we are, 5 o'clock eastern, officially subtropical storm Josephine, the J storm, on the map.
00:33And we have max sustained winds of 65 miles per hour, drifting north at 6 miles per hour.
00:37It is on borrowed time because it's going to be over cooler water soon, and we're going to be tracking
00:44some trouble here as we move forward into the forecast.
00:48You can see Pea Island there with more overwash.
00:50Some of that damage may have been from three and a half weeks ago, but, again, they haven't had a
00:57chance to repave.
00:58And the water's over that same area that was damaged badly by the nor'easter from late last month.
01:02So if we compare the storm system here, now a symmetrical warm core becoming a subtropical or even borderline tropical
01:12system, it's being strengthened now by warm water.
01:14Earlier, when this was a true nor'easter, it was strengthened by the jet stream, the winds aloft.
01:19So there's a difference there.
01:21Also, a warm core system like a tropical storm, or in this case, subtropical storm, has somewhat of a tightly
01:27confined wind field that strong winds near the center of the storm.
01:31And, again, I like this.
01:33Ari and some others put this together in the morning.
01:35When the atmosphere writes the forecast, a colon versus a period.
01:38So you can see a compact wind field here with a symmetrical warm core storm.
01:43If we think back to the nor'easter from three and a half weeks ago, we had large areas of
01:47strong winds all the way out hundreds of miles from the center of the storm.
01:51Cold core storms like nor'easters have a larger wind field, and we think about winter storms with them.
01:56This one's going to be more of a kind of a subtropical quasi-hybrid type storm, a little more like
02:02a tropical system.
02:03So, overall, the weather alerts do continue here with many areas under flooding, coastal flooding, during high tide.
02:10That's the big message here.
02:11Meanwhile, the bulk of the rain is staying offshore.
02:14But we're still dealing with tides that are about two feet above your average, to 2.3 feet above your
02:20typical high tides in the area around the south side of the Chesapeake Bay.
02:24So, again, we'll have to replace the low with the tropical storm symbol because this is now a subtropical system.
02:30But regardless, when we look at future radar, our subtropical storm is going to brush the outer part of southeastern
02:37New England.
02:38So, Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, Cape Cod, just a little taste of some rain out there.
02:42And then this gets scooped up by a trough, absorbed by a trough, and the door will be closing on
02:47this being a true subtropical system.
02:50But pleasant weather for Thursday, unless you're near the coast.
02:53That's where you have a little rain, a daybreak in Cape Cod.
02:56And, again, we'll see improvements by afternoon.
02:58Boston, partly sunny for the balance of the day.
03:00Brilliant sunshine across the interior.
03:02It's going to be a really, really nice stretch continuing for the interior northeast.
03:07It's going to be a really nice stretch.
