00:00You got to give him credit.
00:01I think Nick Martinez, he's not going to see a third time through the order.
00:07We know that's the problem with Nick Martinez.
00:09But the bullpens are all rested.
00:12So it really does, if they somehow can get Miz to do what he's done, actually, what,
00:20two playoff starts, Greg, he has not gone past, what, I think eight and a third innings
00:24total in two starts in the postseason.
00:27So if that trend follows, I got to think advantage Tampa Bay early on here.
00:33No.
00:35Well, I mean, the Brewers so far, which is crazy, the Brewers so far have trailed six times
00:45in the postseason, giving up the first run.
00:48And they're five and one in those games.
00:51And the rest of baseball is seven and 22.
00:53So, Joe, I know what you're thinking, and it sounds great on paper, but you're not
00:59dealing with an average team at this point.
01:01The Brewers, it doesn't seem to matter if they get to the other, if they get to their own
01:05starting pitcher, they find a way to come back and win.
01:08So, yeah, I mean, I don't think Mizorowski is a seven inning or six inning pitcher in this
01:14postseason.
01:14And I don't think he is in the World Series, Joe.
01:16I think he's probably very similar to Nick Martinez in this one.
01:19He goes five.
01:21The question is, can the Brewers bridge that to the seventh?
01:24Because that's really all they're going to need is seven, eight, and nine.
01:27And as we saw, they were not afraid to throw McGill out there for a fourth time.
01:32They didn't use him.
01:32And they let Ashby go.
01:34But remember, Ashby's a guy that can go two innings as well.
01:36So they could bring Uribe in the sixth.
01:38Ashby seventh and eighth.
01:40Bring McGill in the eighth and try and close it out on the ninth.
01:43And you gave the data, the team that wins first usually ends up winning the World Series.
01:47So I think the Rays would just be fortunate to get any game out of this if they can.
01:52I can't pick them tonight.
01:54I certainly won't.
01:56But my hunch is tomorrow they'll have a shot to win.
02:03I mean, it's ballooned up to plus 165, 170 for the Tampa Bay Rays.
02:09It feels great.
02:12Listen, all things being equal, I don't think there's going to be a ton of runs being scored
02:16here tonight.
02:16Six and a half is the total.
02:19We've seen the public, of course, loving the over in this spot.
02:24But again, Nick Martinez is going to go out there and see three or four innings at most.
02:29The bullpen is going to come in.
02:31I don't know.
02:32It feels like unders across the board here tonight, though, no?
02:35Yep, probably so.
02:37I would think that until they get back to St. Petersburg, because in this controlled environment
02:42like Milwaukee, the Brewers have had a ton of success.
02:44Everyone is rested.
02:46If the game, if Tampa Bay leads after eight, they probably close it out without a run.
02:50The Rays 92-0 leading after eight innings.
02:54I mean, that's a staggering number, too.
02:55So you know that if Baker comes in in the ninth, then he's all likelihood going to close it out,
02:59and so will McGill.
03:01You know, look, the home run is the key to any of these games going over.
03:04And really, the biggest home run threat is going to be Junior Caminero, who really hasn't
03:10hit a lot of home runs in the postseason.
03:12He's 0-3 with two strikeouts against Mizorowski.
03:15He saw him on opening day.
03:16So I am with you here.
03:20I do not think the same scenario plays in St. Pete, though.
03:23I will say that.
03:24I do think that there could be some runs coming in those games, especially after the top starters
03:29sort of make their way out of this thing after game one and game two.
03:33But I suspect tonight and tomorrow in particular, I find it hard to believe that we'll get eight
03:38or nine runs in either game.
03:41I'm with you.
03:42I think especially you said it.
03:44We talked about it earlier this week.
03:46We're going to learn whether or not having that much time off and a little bit of rust
03:50comes into play here for Milwaukee.
03:52Even with Nick Martinez, I think it's going to come into play and not Rasmussen on a board.
03:57So first five under three and a half.
03:59Can I get you to join me on that here tonight, Greg?
04:03Yes.
04:04And I think first five, you know, Brewers leading, you know, whatever that is.
04:09Yeah, probably so.
04:10I would even, you know, pair it up with something else.
