00:00I think the Deshaun extension conversation is a tad premature.
00:05I also think conversations about winning the AFC North are premature.
00:10And as long as we can all agree, it's incredibly early to have either,
00:15then I will disregard the obvious dangers of having these two premature conversations,
00:21which is three weeks from now, I could look like a total a-hole
00:26and a complete idiot for talking about it seven weeks into the season.
00:29That is how that works.
00:30And I guess I would ask you, which one do you think is the higher percentage chance of happening?
00:34Because if right now ESPN Analytics gives the Browns winning the AFC North at 5.5%,
00:39I think the Athletic had it higher.
00:41Yeah, it was like 17%.
00:4217% I think was the number.
00:44So which one do you think has a higher percentage of actually happening?
00:49It's really tough.
00:50Because the Deshaun thing is probably living in that 5 to 17.
00:53It's probably, depending which one you trust to begin with,
00:55is probably where your answer lies.
00:57I don't put the Deshaun thing at a very high percentage chance of happening still.
01:01It's tough because this next week, every week with Deshaun,
01:04the probability of an extension jumps significantly.
01:08I mean, we're now into seven games.
01:09He looks healthy.
01:11We don't have any, cross your fingers,
01:13we don't have any reports about him being banged up after the game so far.
01:17Remember, we got through that Baltimore game about two or three years ago,
01:20and we were just having one hell of a victory Monday.
01:23Tuesday, he was out for the rest of the season.
01:25And he's taking hits, too.
01:26Yeah, he is.
01:27Saw the one play he got crunched up on.
01:30But we're still just seven games into this.
01:33I'll really start thinking about, hey, I think you're going to extend Deshaun.
01:37Probably week 12, week 13.
01:40Because he will have been as healthy as he's ever been,
01:42and to make it that far, the play has to have continued
01:46at whatever kind of average is the first seven weeks of this.
01:50And let's be honest, too,
01:51there are things outside of Deshaun Watson's control
01:54that heavily dictate this conversation.
01:56Like, what happens with the 2027 quarterback class in college?
02:00Like, if the quarterback class had lived up to the expectations
02:03we'd had previously and what we thought they were going to be,
02:05where it's like, oh, Arch Manning is great, Dante Moore is great,
02:08and you can just name seven guys you think is going to go in the first round,
02:12I bet it'd be a lot different convo than the one that exists right now,
02:14which seems like it's going to be a pretty lackluster quarterback class.
02:18Even the veteran market can have a gigantic shift on this.
02:22Not necessarily from, like, the names you know,
02:25but, I mean, if the Chargers end up with a number one pick
02:28and they decide they'd rather take that quarterback
02:30and move off of Justin Herbert,
02:32that is going to have to be a massive stone you really consider
02:35turning over.
02:35Or if the Texans keep losing to those Giants,
02:38who knows what happens with C.J. Stroud.
02:40I'll take C.J. Stroud.
02:40I want the record to show I'll take C.J. Stroud.
02:42Yeah, people are going to get a little antsy
02:44about the trading three first to the Texans for a quarterback, though,
02:48understandably so.
02:49Now, the AFC North thinks this one's more difficult for a different reason.
02:53Right now, teams in the era of 14 playoff teams,
02:58teams that have started the season 5-2,
03:01have made the playoffs 80% of the time.
03:03So you already feel very confident about your ability to make the playoffs.
03:08That's not the same conversation as talking about winning the AFC North.
03:12Because the AFC, if you said right now,
03:14you can make a case that any one of the four teams will win it,
03:18and I think you have a very valid case to be had,
03:21I don't know who's going to win this,
03:23let alone saying the Browns should be the favorite.
03:25Well, the question then comes down to,
03:27do you think the Browns are one of the best teams in the AFC North at the moment?
03:29And I think for a lot of people,
03:31who are you putting really that much higher
03:34that you feel 100% confidence in is better?
03:36I think most people nationally would maybe say the Bengals
03:39in that discussion.
03:40Oh yeah, the Bengals are getting a lot of love after that win yesterday.
03:42They're getting a lot of love,
03:43but also in that same respect,
03:45I don't know that the Bengals are going to maintain this,
03:47and they're always a Joe Burrow injury from just being irrelevant.
03:512-1-6, 4-7-4.
03:52A man that does get injured a lot, by the way.
03:54He is injured, much the same as Lamar.
03:572-1-6, 4-7-4, 0092.
04:00Which conversation is more premature today,
04:03winning the AFC North or extending Deshaun?
04:06I'm going to go a little bit on the nose.
04:08I'm going to say it's the Deshaun thing
04:11because winning the AFC North when you're 5-2
04:13and you have, as of right now,
04:16the tiebreakers to be in first place in the AFC North,
04:19I don't know if that should be the expectation,
04:21but we should at least be dreaming big here
04:24with the way you've started the season
04:25with two big wins in the division to start the season.
04:28With Deshaun, seven games barely clears the bar
04:31that he set his first four years in Cleveland
04:34in terms of games played.
04:35I get it, but when I hear this radio station, for instance,
04:37if I hear the topic on this radio station,
04:39if I hear someone saying something about Deshaun next year,
04:42I think, okay, he's the starting quarterback.
04:44You should be having those conversations at some point.
04:46You should be discussing whether he can or can't.
04:48Even if it all unravels, that's kind of the convos we have.
04:51Meanwhile, if someone talks about winning the AFC North right now,
04:54I am doing the slow your roll just a little bit.
04:57Pump your brakes.
04:58It's okay.
04:58We got a few more games we got to play
05:00and a few more divisional games we got to play
05:01before we really start thinking about such a thing,
05:04and especially with the understanding that it all does not ride
05:06on whether or not you win the AFC North.
05:08Yeah, I guess, listen, they're both very premature conversations.
05:14I just am not taking anything Deshaun is doing for granted.
05:18And by that I mean I'm not assuming it's going to continue.
05:22We just have such little proof of his ability to stay healthy.
05:27I'm not talking about the quality of play.
05:28I think if he stays healthy, I think he is going to continue to get better
05:32because the elements around him are going to get better.
05:34And I think you're going to get more comfortable with each other.
05:36As long as they stay healthy around him,
05:39I think Deshaun is going to make this a very interesting conversation.
05:43It's just expecting him to get to week 12 or 13 feels far-fetched at this point.
05:47But this also isn't some ridiculous performance that he's putting out there.
05:51I mean ridiculous in a solid way.
05:53He's 24th in EPA for play.
05:55We can go through all sorts of different numbers
05:56where he's somewhere between 22 to 28.
05:59What he's done is very, very repeatable.
06:01It's just the question is,
06:03do you want to go ahead and go through with a quarterback
06:05that if this is the result, obviously great wins are wins.
06:09We want that.
06:09But if you look up, I don't know, 10 weeks from now,
06:12and he's still the 24th best quarterback,
06:14is that the guy you're extending?
06:15Yeah, probably.
06:16If he plays to week 17, week 18, and you're a playoff team,
06:22unless, say, Justin Herbert falls into your lap,
06:25unless somehow the Rams end up getting the number one pick or top three pick.
06:29Listen, Andrew Barry already got bit previously
06:31by wanting more for a quarterback with the Baker Mayfield discussion, right?
06:34Like he was the one that got greedy with it
06:35and said, I can get better than what is 15th right now.
06:38But Andrew Barry, I think if he looks up at the end of the season
06:40and sees that Deshaun has very comparable numbers
06:43to what he's put up for the first seven weeks in totality,
06:46I don't think he's going to get fooled by the wins.
06:49He's too smart.
06:50He's like, the analytics matter too much for him.
06:52I think he's going to look at it and say,
06:54oh, Fannin's playing great.
06:55Concepcion's playing great.
06:56Boston's playing great.
06:57We have a run game.
06:58We have all these other things, and they're the reason why,
07:01not necessarily that Deshaun's the reason why.
07:02Yeah, I think that second half of what you're talking about
07:05is more about what's available around.
07:09And even then, even if you were to trade up and take a quarterback,
07:13I still think Deshaun's going to be here in some capacity in 2027
07:19if he just stays healthy.
07:21But again, the health is just such a huge part of this.
07:24216-474-0092.
07:26Which conversation is more premature, winning the AFC North
07:30or extending Deshaun Watson?
07:33Shud King in Cleveland saying, I don't want us extending Deshaun.
07:36I'd rather move off him and take Dante Moore with a Rams first rounder,
07:41assuming we get high enough with it.
07:44One, Dante Moore's stock, pretty low these days.
07:48Yeah, not good.
07:49Dose, I still think even if you're dead set on taking the quarterback next year,
07:54I don't see how you don't have a bridge quarterback.
07:58And I don't know that Deshaun is going to have the kind of options
08:02outside of Cleveland that he's going to be itching to get outside of Cleveland.
08:06Meaning, what would preclude him from taking a one- or two-year deal
08:11where it's $70 million?
08:12They're the exception, not the rule, though.
08:14That's why in the last 10 years, it's Baker and now it's Kirk Cousins
08:18is the only two that have existed.
08:19The Browns' philosophy might just be mainstream on this
08:22where you draft the quarterback, you put the quarterback in week one,
08:25and you go.
