00:00Israel heads to the polls today in what is already seen as one of its most consequential elections in years.
00:07It's the country's first national vote since the Hamas-led attacks of the 7th of October 2023
00:13and comes after three years of war, growing political divisions and mounting questions over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership.
00:22But could the outcome reshape not only Israel's political future, but also the balance of power across the Middle East
00:29and its relations with the wider world?
00:32To talk about all this, I'm now joined by our correspondent, Sasha Vakulina.
00:37Good morning, Sasha.
00:38So is this essentially a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu?
00:43In a nutshell, yes.
00:44But Stefan, let's face it, every election is a referendum to the sitting government and the sitting Prime Minister.
00:50But of course, in Israel, this vote carries particular weight.
00:54Now, covering this election and in the run-up to the vote today,
00:58I've heard every description of this vote from the experts and the politicians in Israel.
01:03They called it pivotal, they called it crucial, they called it the most consequential,
01:07which gives you an idea on how important the vote is, of course,
01:11and what is at stake for Israel, for the region and for the global politics as well.
01:16Now, to turn out, it's expected to be very high.
01:18Now, reportedly, at least 70,000 people have flown to Israel to cause their votes from abroad.
01:25So you have this big anticipation happening.
01:28Netanyahu is, of course, as you say, Israel's longest-serving prime minister,
01:33and the voters are being asked to assess and to judge on his leadership,
01:38specifically after the Hamas-led attack of the 7th of October, 2023,
01:43and also the wars that have followed afterwards.
01:45Now, Netanyahu, according to the latest polls,
01:49he is in near-neck-and-neck race with former military chief Gadi Azenkot for the prime minister job.
01:55Now, Gadi Azenkot is seen as one of the leaders of this election campaign.
02:01But, you know, for Israel, a lot comes to security, of course,
02:06and for Netanyahu, he will be judged on those aspects and, you know,
02:11on all these conflicts on multiple fronts for Israeli government,
02:16on its stake on Gaza, on its stake on Occupied West Bank and the tensions there,
02:20and, of course, on Lebanon and now the Israel and the U.S. war and Iran
02:25and the possible escalation that we have been hearing over the past couple of days
02:29that it might renew the tensions there.
02:33And then, of course, the investigation that never took place on the October 7th.
02:37Zosia, you mentioned October 7th several times.
02:40Is this date still the defining issue of this election campaign?
02:44Very much so.
02:44Even today, on the voting day, their families,
02:47the people and the families of the October 7th hostages and the victims
02:51are gathering at the so-called hostage square,
02:54what they call vote for accountability.
02:56This is very much a big issue for Israeli society and the voters.
02:59They want to have this independent investigation.
03:03The investigation that did not take place because, for them,
03:05it's all about the responsibility and the accountability
03:07and who is going to be responsible for what is widely seen
03:13as the biggest security failure in Israel's history, Stefan.
03:16We're talking about 1,200 people killed in one day, 251 hostages,
03:21and this is something that Israelis, the voters, do need answers for.
03:26And this is what I discussed with Yossi Mekkelberg,
03:28an associate fellow and the professor at Chatham House earlier.
03:32The one demand that unites all the opposition,
03:36and I suspect mainly from the coalition as well,
03:40or those who support the coalition,
03:42it's a state commission of inquiry.
03:45It's impossible in a democracy when such a failure that cost their life,
03:50in one day 1,200 people were killed,
03:53that there is no state commission, an independent one,
03:56to ask all the right questions,
03:59not only to find who's to blame,
04:01but also how to prevent it in the future.
04:04The more the government rejects the idea,
04:07the more people are suspicious that they have something to hide.
04:11Professor, could the change of government bring,
04:14let's say, a meaningful shift in Israel's policy towards Gaza,
04:19towards the West Bank,
04:20and now also towards the war and the possible escalation of Israel-U.S. war on Iran?
04:27A new government will bring change if it's formed by the opposition parties.
04:34What we'll have to look after a government is forming
04:38is the trajectory in which direction a new government is there
04:43when it comes to the Israel democracy.
04:46I think it's a big question whether parties that represent
04:50a Palestinian citizen of Israel,
04:54only as the Arab parties are going to be included in such a government.
05:00If it cooperates more with the Board of Peace when it comes to Gaza,
05:04negotiate with the Lebanese government on funding security,
05:10but also beyond this arrangement in Lebanon that Israel can withdraw,
05:13there's so many issues.
05:15And of course, the core issue is the Palestinian issue.
05:19A two-state solution is not going to happen overnight.
05:22But if we start seeing steps towards,
05:26is the harshness and oppressive nature of the occupation
05:30towards a political solution?
05:33There is a growing speculation about the renewed military action against Iran
05:38after the U.S. mid-term elections on the 3rd of November.
05:41How realistic do you see that prospect?
05:44And would the change of government in Israel make any meaningful difference
05:48to this approach?
05:50If there is a new government,
05:52one would expect to reconsider
05:54if the only way to move forward is by using military force.
05:59It's also a week after the election in Israel,
06:06the mid-term in the United States,
06:08and between the two it can determine whether the war in Iran resumed or not.
06:14There is no new government in Israel the day after the election.
06:18It might take weeks and months,
06:20and in the time in between,
06:22Netanyahu is in the government as an interim government
06:26with exactly the same composition of the government,
06:31and at the same time,
06:33do not elect it with all the power including to go to war.
06:37It makes it more volatile and more dangerous.
06:41Do you see Netanyahu trying to push for another attack on Iran
06:45after the U.S. mid-term elections?
06:48I think we're entitled to be suspicious
06:51of the real motivation of Netanyahu
06:54because these policies are very much intertwined
06:57with this corruption trial and retaining power.
07:01So creating a crisis
07:03is not beyond the realm of possibility,
07:07including with Iran.
07:09At the same time,
07:10in such a volatile regions,
07:13such as the Middle East,
07:14with so many fronts still open,
07:16you can manufacture crisis in different places.
