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This episode of Statecraft examines major global political battles and their geopolitical repercussions. In Israel, following an inconclusive general election where Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc secured 53 seats, the Likud party alleged widespread electoral fraud and foreign interference involving Arab parties, Qatar, and Turkey. Israeli election authorities and police found no evidence of systematic fraud or altered outcomes. Meanwhile, rival opposition factions and Arab parties hold potential kingmaker positions amid tense coalition maneuvers. Across the Atlantic, the upcoming US midterm elections threaten Republican control of Congress, presenting significant implications for India. With bilateral trade negotiations stalled over agriculture and Russian oil imports, shifts on Capitol Hill could reshape US tariff policies, trade scrutiny, and strategic ties. In diplomatic developments, External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar arrived in Atlanta for the G20 foreign ministers meeting and Quad deliberations chaired by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, before heading to the Commonwealth summit. The show concludes with scenes of physical brawls erupting inside Armenia's parliament.
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00:00what happens when a leader cannot accept an election result and turns a poor performance
00:05into an international conspiracy and what happens when another leader faces a political battle at
00:11home that could reshape his country's relationship with india and the world today two elections two
00:18past struggles and consequences that stretch far beyond their borders in israel benjamin
00:23netanyahu's party cries foul pointing fingers at arab parties qatar and turkey but where is the
00:30evidence is this genuine electoral interference or an attempt to discredit an uncomfortable verdict
00:36and across the atlantic donald trump faces a midterm election that could strip him of congressional
00:42control for india the stakes go beyond american politics tariffs trade negotiations and strategic
00:48ties hang in the balance one leader questions the voter's verdict the other faces one hello and
00:55welcome you're watching statecraft with me gita mohan india's external affairs minister dr jay shankar is
01:01in the united states for a high-stakes g20 foreign ministers meeting where energy security global
01:07trade and geopolitical tensions will take center stage and the guest list itself makes this meeting
01:13significant with u.s secretary of state marco rubio chairing the discussions and russia's foreign
01:18minister sergey lavrov also in atlanta jay shankar arrived late on thursday for the two-day meeting
01:24on october 30th and 31st the deliberations will begin with rubio's address on geopolitical challenges
01:30followed by discussions on energy supplies and economic growth the focus is on a growing problem
01:37conflicts and security threats are disrupting the routes that keep the global economy running
01:43from freedom of navigation to energy and food security the g20 ministers will examine how
01:48countries can protect supply chains from geopolitical shocks for india the discussions come at a crucial
01:55time new delhi wants reliable energy supplies stable trade routes and stronger economic partnerships
02:01as global tensions put pressure on markets but atlanta will also host another important diplomatic
02:08engagement foreign ministers from the four quad countries the united states of america india japan
02:13and australia are expected to meet on the sidelines this will be their second meeting this year ahead of a
02:20likely leaders summit hosted by the u.s in the philippines next month meanwhile lavrov's arrival adds
02:26another layer to the gathering the russian delegation is expected to hold several meetings including talks with
02:32rubio even as questions remain over whether prime president vladimir putin will attend the december g20
02:40summit in miami that summit schedule for december 14 15 will bring the leaders together after these
02:46ministerial discussions after atlanta dr jayshankar will travel to antiga and babuda for the commonwealth
02:52heads of governments meeting from november 1st to the 4th of november the immediate test however is whether the
02:59g20 can find common ground on energy trade and security issues that increasingly connect global
03:06politics to the price of everyday ascensions and joining us now is ambassador gor who is in atlanta for
03:13the g20 ambassador thank you so much for speaking with us uh give us a quick overview what brings you
03:18here we know there's a quad meeting tomorrow and then also uh what else can you tell us about that
03:24elusive trade deal
03:26look it's it's incredible to be back home in the united states and secretary rubio is going to be
03:30hosting here just in a few minutes a g20 meeting with all the foreign ministers of the g20 along
03:36with some invited guests a lot of very important items will be discussed over the next two days
03:40including as you mentioned the quad this will be our third meeting of the quad in this year alone
03:45and there's great progress happening with that so we're very excited when we're able to get our
03:49partners together in one room and discuss these things good things happen great to see
03:54israel's opposition is refusing to give up the fight against benjamin netanyahu despite falling short
04:00of a clear path to power rival parties have vowed to use every possible political route to form a
04:06government and prevent netanyahu from returning to office opposition leader yair lapid has called the
04:12election result a victory on points not a knockout the anti-netanyahu block has secured a combined 67
04:18seats in the 120 member connesset but that number does not automatically translate into a working
04:25majority netanyahu's block stands at 53 seats including 30 13 held by ultra orthodox parties the
04:34biggest question is what happens to the 19 seats won by arab political parties their support could decide who
04:41governs but the opposition itself remains divided over how to work with them left-wing leader yair golan has
04:48urged jewish-led opposition parties to include arab factions arguing that excluding their voters would
04:55undermine democratic representation but the arab parties do not share one approach mansoor abbas's ram has
05:02previously joined a governing coalition helping remove netanyahu in 2021 the joint list however has indicated that
05:10it may prefer to support an alternative government from outside the coalition that difference could
05:15make or break the opposition's plan and even if it cannot form a government the opposition could still
05:21work together inside parliament to replace the connesset speaker and other key officials potentially
05:27limiting the powers of a netanyahu led caretaker government the next steps are already taking shape
05:33final results are due to reach president isaac herzog on the 4th of november the newly
05:39elected knesset is scheduled to take office on the 10th of november after which coalition negotiations
05:46will face their biggest test if no candidate can secure a government within the required time frame
05:51israel could return to the polls for now the opposition has one message elections may be over
05:59but the battle for power is far from finished israel has counted its votes but benjamin netanyahu seems to
06:06have found something else to count conspiracies before the final results even came out his liquid
06:12party accused arab-led parties of stealing the election allegedly with foreign help and while
06:18liquid stopped short of naming names qatar and turkey soon found themselves in the firing line
06:23the accusations cash stuffed into ballot envelopes voter intimidation illegal mobilization and even a
06:32foreign plot to take over israel's parliament serious allegations certainly but there is one small
06:38problem allegations are not evidence qatar and turkey have rejected the claims election officials have
06:45questioned the fraud narrative and netanyahu's opponents say he simply cannot accept defeat so did
06:51foreign powers meddle in israel's election or has a poor electoral result turned into a convenient
06:57international conspiracy on the 27th of october israel is voted in what many described as one of the
07:03country's most consequential elections three days later the final numbers are in netanyahu's block
07:09secured 53 seats the opposition group led by gadi eisencourt 148 while the arab parties ram and the
07:16joint list together secured 19 seats nobody has the 61 seats needed for a majority and that makes the arab
07:24party's potential king makers but instead of focusing only on coalition arithmetic liquid has launched
07:30a much bigger allegation that the election itself was stolen so what exactly is liquid alleging the party
07:39claims arab-led parties used bribery intimidation and electoral fraud to boost their vote it alleges that
07:47cash was stuffed into envelopes alongside ram ballot papers polling committee members faced threats and
07:53violence multiple voters entered booths together and some people voted twice it has also flagged
08:01discrepancies between ballot envelopes and registered voters alongside the alleged use of prohibited
08:08software to mobilize voters liquid says it will submit hundreds of testimonies and evidence items to the
08:15police shinbet and central election committee it even called the alleged operation of foreign takeover bid
08:22aimed at islamizing israel and toppling the right-wing government a rather dramatic description of an
08:29election result but where is the proof that brings us to the authorities the central elections committee's
08:36acting director general dean livney has rejected claims of widespread electoral fraud he said the elections
08:44were conducted lawfully polling station integrity was safeguarded and there was no basis for allegations of
08:50systematic violations the police were even more direct they said they had no investigative or
08:56intelligence-based support for liquid's broader claim that the election was stolen so far there is
09:02no official finding that the results were unlawfully altered there are however separate investigations into
09:09suspected election bribery and foreign funding four more men were arrested in a police case involving alleged payments
09:16connected to ram voting slips after police found cash and party ballot slips during earlier searches
09:22but that case is not proof of a foreign-backed operation then why are qatar and turkey in the picture
09:29the liquid statement itself did not name either country israeli media reports however identified doha
09:35and ankara as possible sources of suspected funding channel 13 reported that investigators were examining
09:42whether money moved through currency exchanges and local institutions along routes previously used to
09:49transfer terrorist funds the suspicion is that this money may have encouraged unlawful voting activity in
09:56arab communities but the source recipients and purpose of the money remain under investigation the shinbed
10:03probe began after central elections committee chairman justice noam solberg urged an investigation into
10:09suspected foreign funding crucially solberg himself said he could not establish whether the allegations
10:16were true and the letter did not name qatar turkey or any political party both countries have rejected the
10:23accusations qatar's foreign ministry spokesperson majid al-ansari categorically denied any interference or
10:30funding intended to influence the election doha called the allegations a disinformation campaign and said qatar
10:37should not become a scapegoat for the political failures of israeli politicians turkey's communications
10:44directorate also called the claims entirely baseless accusing those spreading them of deliberately
10:50manipulating public opinion and the arab parties joint list dismissed the allegations as baseless and racist
10:58arguing that the accusations exposed the right sphere of arab voters political power but that raises a bigger
11:06question what exactly so suspicious about arab voters turning out in large numbers ram and the joint list won a
11:14combined 19 seats with reports linking their record vote share to unprecedented turnout in arab communities
11:22that is a significant electoral result but a community exercising its democratic right is not evidence of wrongdoing
11:29if individual crimes took place investigate them but treating an entire community's participation as suspicious
11:37is a very different matter and the political stakes are enormous
11:41isancourt has accused netanyahu of trying to delegitimize the election because he lost opposition leaders have warned
11:49against using allegations to undermine the voters verdict meanwhile the shin bet must establish whether foreign money actually influenced voting
11:58and whether
11:59any irregularities affected the results can these allegations overturn the election not automatically
12:06israeli law provides a separate court process for election challenges and irregularities must be serious enough
12:13to have affected the outcome a complaint or investigation alone cannot cancel the results the immediate challenge remains
12:21forming a government with the arab parties holding considerable influence over the numbers so did qatar and turkey
12:27steal israel's election there is no established evidence that they did there are suspicions under investigation
12:34separate bribery cases and serious political accusations until investigators produce proof a foreign conspiracy remains
12:42an allegation not a verdict netanyahu may have lost the numbers but the battle over who gets to define the
12:49result
12:49has only just begun what happens if donald trump loses control of congress but refuses to give up
12:56control of his trade agenda and what happens if the very tariffs he's used to pressure countries like india become
13:04a political liability at home the november 3rd u.s midterm elections could change the equation between
13:10the white house and capitol hill and for india this is about much more than who controls the congress it
13:16is about
13:16tariffs trade negotiations and the future of one of its most important strategic partnerships the stakes are enormous americans
13:25are voting for all 435 seats in the house of representatives and roughly one-third of the
13:32senate republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers a democratic takeover of either
13:38chamber would complicate trump's ability to push his legislative agenda and a loss in both could turn the
13:45remaining two years of his presidency into a constant battle with the congress the political backdrop is
13:52already challenging trump's approval ratings are hovering at around 32 to 38 percent reflecting growing
13:59dissatisfaction over the cost of living and the economy inflationary pressures fuel prices and frustration
14:05over international crises are adding to that pressure but why should india care about an american midterm
14:12election because donald trump's trade policy has already become a major source of uncertainty for new
14:19delhi his tariff strategy has complicated bilateral relations his transactional approach has made trade
14:26negotiations more difficult and his willingness to use economic pressure has left indian exporters watching
14:33every move from washington a republican defeat could weaken trump's political position but it does not
14:41automatically mean that his tariffs will disappear and that distinction is crucial a democratic
14:48controlled house would give opposition lawmakers powerful committee chairmanship and investigative
14:53authority they could scrutinize the administration's tariff decisions spending and trade policies they
14:59could question the economic costs of trump's approach they could demand greater accountability over how
15:06these measures are being used if democrats capture both chambers budget negotiations could become more
15:13difficult difficult and major legislative initiatives could face resistance trump would have to negotiate
15:20instead of simply expecting congressional support but there is a catch the u.s president retains
15:26substantial executive authority particularly in foreign affairs and trade a change in
15:33congressional control does not automatically take away those powers nor does it automatically reverse
15:39existing tariffs and there is another development that makes this election particularly important
15:46trump's tariff strategy has already faced a major legal setback on the 20th of february 2026 the u.s supreme
15:54court ruled that the international emergency economic powers act does not authorize the president to impose
16:01tariffs but that does not mean the entire tariff machinery has disappeared other laws still give the
16:08administration powers to impose duties in specific circumstances so even if democrats take the congress
16:14india cannot assume that washington will suddenly become less protectionist the political battle may change
16:21legal and economic battles will continue and the india u.s trade negotiations show just how complicated
16:28this relationship has become in february washington and new delhi announced a framework for an interim trade
16:35agreement it proposed an 18 percent reciprocal tariff on a range of indian goods alongside greater access
16:42for american products in the indian market but the agreement has not been signed negotiations have
16:48faced hurdles over market access agriculture and india's continued purchases of russian oil on the 29th
16:55of october commerce minister piyush goyal said india would not compromise the interests of its farmers to
17:01secure a deal for indian exporters this uncertainty is not theoretical it affects pricing competitiveness
17:08investment decisions and access to the american market and this is where a republican defeat could
17:16create an opening for india a democratic controlled congress could question whether aggressive tariffs
17:22are actually benefiting american businesses and consumers it could push for more predictable trade
17:28relations it could make it politically harder for trump to pursue new economic confrontations without
17:34facing scrutiny for new delhi that could mean great negotiating space but it would be a mistake to
17:41confuse a weaker trump with a friendlier washington because america's trade concerns about india are not
17:48confined to the republican party market access tariffs on american goods technology restrictions and immigration remain
17:56issues across party lines democrats may disagree with trump's methods but that does not mean they will
18:03abandon the demand for greater access to india's markets and there is another danger a divided government
18:10could slow down cooperation in defense technology and trade decisions could become harder to negotiate
18:16agreements could take longer to implement and initiatives that depend on political momentum could lose space
18:24that is why india cannot afford to build its american relationship around just one man or one
18:30administration and the implications go beyond india u.s trade china will be watching washington just as
18:36closely a democratic victory could increase scrutiny of trump's trade restrictions and his approach to beijing
18:43but there is no guarantee of a softer american policy towards china competition with beijing enjoys bipartisan
18:50support in washington for india that creates both opportunities and risks if u.s china tensions reshape global supply
18:59chains india could attract more investment and manufacturing but sharper competition could also increase
19:05its instability across the indo-pacific pakistan too will be watching the political transition a weakened trump
19:13administration could create uncertainty over washington's south asia priorities including afghanistan
19:19counter-terrorism and regional security islamabad may look for diplomatic opportunities in that uncertainty
19:26but india's priority must remain direct engagement with washington without allowing its security concerns to
19:33become secondary to america's wider regional calculations and this is why the stakes are bigger than tariffs
19:40india's defense cooperation technology partnerships and strategic engagement with the united states
19:45cannot become casualties of political polarization in washington now consider the alternative what if
19:52republicans retain control of the congress trump could present the result as an endorsement of his
19:58presidency he could claim greater political backing for his economic agenda and intensify pressure over
20:05tariffs immigration and trade negotiations as well for india that could mean tougher bargaining and
20:11renewed pressure to make concessions the personal equation between prime minister narendra modi and trump may help
20:17maintain communication but personal chemistry cannot substitute for institutional guarantees and that is the larger
20:25lesson for new delhi india must build bipartisan support in washington it must strengthen relationships with
20:32lawmakers from both parties it must deepen cooperation with american businesses defense institutions and
20:39technology companies and it must ensure that the india-us partnership survives changes in political leadership
20:47because american politics is increasingly polarized a democratic victory could constrain trump a republican victory could
20:54reinforce his political position but neither outcome will erase america's economic interests it could
21:01its concerns over china or its expectations from india you see the real question is not whether trump
21:08survives the midterms politically it is whether india can protect its interests in an america where trade
21:14policy is increasingly shaped by domestic political battles a republican defeat could give new delhi more
21:20negotiating space but it will not guarantee lower tariffs a democratic congress could demand greater
21:26predictability but it will not necessarily offer india easier market access and that is the challenge
21:33for india it must engage washington without becoming dependent on washington it must deepen its partnership
21:40without compromising its strategic autonomy because american presidents change congressional majorities change
21:47but india's national interests cannot change with every election in the united states the midterms may
21:54decide how much power trump has left but they will also test how prepared india is to deal with an
22:00america
22:00that can change its priorities with every political cycle that's all in this edition of statecraft before we go
22:07when parliament turns into a boxing ring you know politics has taken a dramatic turn armenia's parliament
22:14descended into chaos for the third time in a month after a heated political argument erupted into a physical
22:20brawl between ruling party and opposition lawmakers the trigger was a controversial remark during a debate over
22:27an appointment to the audit chamber punches were thrown chairs flew and the fight spilled into the corridors
22:34one opposition mp reportedly suffered a bleeding nose while another had his clothes torn the clashes once again
22:41exposed the deepening tensions between prime minister uh pashinyan's ruling civil control contract
22:48party and the opposition with that it's a wrap goodbye and take care