00:00to give you kind of an idea where Kalshi and Polymarket stand tonight on really the big vote
00:07here, which will be on the House and on the Senate. As you said, somewhere between it looks
00:12like 93% to 95% as of right now trading for the Democratic House to get flipped. And then
00:18the
00:19interesting one and the one that most people feel will get flipped also is the Senate, but that's a
00:25little bit lower. It's between 73% to 76%. So the question is, is that what race should we be
00:33keeping an eye on that could potentially flip the Senate? Let's forget about the House here for a
00:38minute because it does look like that's a foregone conclusion. So as Joe said, it's not the outcome
00:43you're looking for. It's getting in and out at different pricing, but there's not a lot of margin
00:46there for the House if you're looking at 93% to 95%. So if the Senate's at 75%, it looks
00:52like the
00:52race that we'll keep an eye on here. And again, that'll be central time. So there's still
00:56an hour to go there, two hours to go actually there before we get a finale there. But the Texas
01:03and the Democrat, James Tallarico trading approximately on Kalshi and Polymarket around
01:0973%. He's going against Republican Ken Paxton. And naturally the state of Texas, as one would imagine,
01:17usually gets Republican support, but tonight could potentially be a flip. And so if that does,
01:23become a flip, I think that pretty much locks in the Senate as well. But I guess, Joe, my
01:30understanding isn't following this, is that if the Republicans were to hold serve in Texas and
01:35somehow Tallarico was to lose to Paxton in this case, that could flip the entire Senate. So for us,
01:42that'll be the race that we'll be keeping an eye on tonight. Now, naturally, again, it is only 5.16
01:47PM
01:48in the state of Texas because they're on central time. So we won't even have a finale there. But
01:53let's keep a close eye on that market because that could be the precursor to what happens later on
01:59tonight when we get the final outcome.
02:01And also, listen, the minute the news outlets are reporting one thing is going to happen,
02:09what happens, Greg, is these markets get ridiculously inflated. And this Tallarico and Texas market is
02:17just that because the reports and the polls have been coming out saying that it's going to Tallarico.
02:23That's great. It may vary well. But if there is one report that comes out here that maybe these
02:30early returns, Greg, are not going towards Tallarico, I can tell you right now, doesn't mean
02:36he doesn't win, but it just means you're going to be able to get him at a much better price
02:41than anything else. But keep in mind, most of these, especially if they've garnered national
02:47headlines, Greg, guess what? They're already inflated because you and I both know what happens is
02:53people have run here to the prediction markets and they have been betting into this. Doesn't mean
02:58it's going to happen. It just means that it's so overvalued at this point that we're looking for
03:05any bit of information, Greg, at this point that turns that back down. And then that's what we're
03:12talking about, buying the dip and buying low and selling high. None of us want to be holding a ticket
03:18at the end of it. We are looking to get in and we're waiting for the market to readjust. And
03:23then
03:24we're looking to get out, Greg. That's it. We're not looking to hold on to anything because I can tell
03:28you right now, Cal sheet in Iowa, they are going to, if you're going to hold a ticket when tonight
03:35is
03:36over, then you're going to have to wait till February. That's actually sworn in and works out for
03:42it. So if you're looking like us to be traders of I want in, I want out by the time
03:47I go to bed here
03:48tonight, then that's exactly what we're going to be doing. If you're holding tickets at the end of the
03:54night in a lot of these markets, you're going to have to wait until that actual winner and that outcome
04:00gets sworn in in February, which some people may not be aware of right now here, Greg.
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