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A special edition of Roundtable on India Today examines the political, geopolitical, and economic fallout following Donald Trump-backed Republicans losing control of the US Congress in the midterm elections.
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00:15America punishes Donald Trump.
00:25Trump loses control of Congress.
00:30Results reflect diversity of America.
00:34J.D.
00:38Habibi.
00:41There is this delicious irony in the fact that you're constitutionally obligated to swear me in in January.
00:53Vance blames Iran war for debacle.
00:57I think it's largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit short term and probably that's probably
01:06it's true.
01:06But at the same time, if I had it to do again, I'd have to do it again because long
01:10term, it's the only answer.
01:11You can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon.
01:15Will Trump strike deal or push for war?
01:18They're not doing anything without our approval.
01:21Remember what I said to you, Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.
01:24They're not doing anything without our approval.
01:28Will Trump be a lame duck president?
01:38Is the Trumpian era ending?
01:45Namaskar, hello and welcome to this weekend's round table.
01:49It's been a tectonic week in US politics that could have a massive impact on America and the world.
01:56The resounding defeat suffered by Donald Trump backed Republicans has put the US president on notice and led many to
02:03ask questions of the Trump presidency.
02:07In particular, two years into the Trump presidency, can we now say with any confidence that the era of Trumpism
02:15is over?
02:16And if it is, what are its implications for the world and indeed for us here in India?
02:21That's a question that I'm going to look from different perspectives, from politics to global economy to global conflicts.
02:29And kicking off our round table today is a very special guest.
02:33Delighted to be joined by Mehdi Hassan from Washington, one of the world, one of the most vocal critics of
02:39Donald Trump in America, editor of Zetio, a leading digital news site.
02:43Good to have you Mehdi on the show.
02:46Let me ask you right away, because you are celebrating Donald Trump's defeat.
02:51I saw videos of that.
02:53And I want to ask a direct question.
02:55Do you really believe that Donald Trump and Trumpism have hit a wall of no return?
03:03No, sadly, I wish I could say that, Raju, but thanks for having me.
03:06No, no, I'm not that dewy-eyed.
03:09I'm very well aware that Donald Trump is not going anywhere for another two years minimum.
03:13He is the president till 2028, till January 2029.
03:18Whether he tries to stay on, as he suggested he might, we shall see.
03:21That's become much less likely after this week's results, thankfully.
03:24But he's around.
03:25And even after he's gone, what he's created in his party, Trumpism, MAGA, this neo-fascist movement, will be with
03:33us for a long time to come.
03:34It may even get worse if you look at young Republicans, Rajdeep, in the United States, people who have grown
03:39up on Donald Trump's watch over the last decade.
03:41They're far more obnoxious and racist and far right than even he is.
03:45So I don't think Trumpism is going anywhere.
03:47What I hope is in the next two years, the Democrats can show Americans, number one, there is an alternative
03:51model of governance, of policy.
03:54And number two, they can hold him in some kind of check.
03:57For the last two years, Rajdeep, there's been no real check on his power, no real balance on his power.
04:02You know, given what you've just said, am I to therefore understand, Mehdi, that the verdict that we saw in
04:09the United States is a rejection of the kind of policies that Donald Trump pursued in the last two years.
04:20The Iran war that led to energy crisis, the belief that corruption in high places, cronyism was carrying on in
04:27a rampant manner.
04:28And it is not a rejection of fundamentally the reasons why this Make America Great Again or MAGA movement became
04:37so influential in America.
04:39We need to make a distinction between Trump's policies and the core of the Trump vote.
04:45Well, let's let's actually separate separate it out even more than that.
04:49I think for sure it was a rejection of the Trump presidency so far, his signature policies, tariffs, the war
04:55in Iran and his own corruption.
04:57You know, Fox News, of all people, Rajdeep, did a poll on the eve of the midterms.
05:01They found Americans' number one issue was corruption.
05:04That's never happened before.
05:06Normally you ask Americans in an election, what's your top issue?
05:08They say the economy, cost of living, immigration, maybe crime, health care.
05:12They never say corruption.
05:13But Americans are so fed up with the corruption they're seeing, the grift in Washington, D.C., that it was
05:18a top issue in a lot of polls.
05:19So that's definitely a big issue and Democrats should be investigating that corruption.
05:23Now they control the House and the Senate in Washington, D.C.
05:26That should be top of their list.
05:27But also, look, the Iran war is the root of all evil when it comes to the failure of the
05:32Republicans to make any headway in these elections.
05:34He betrayed a very clear campaign promise that he wouldn't start any new wars.
05:38That's number one.
05:39And number two, the war itself drove up gas prices, grocery prices.
05:43He said on day one he would bring down the cost of living.
05:46He would end inflation.
05:46So everything goes back to the Iran war, and you don't have to take my word for that.
05:50J.D. Vance, the vice president, published a post on Wednesday saying the Iran war was to blame.
05:55And yet today Donald Trump is quoted as saying he's locked and loaded if it comes to a strike against
06:02Iran.
06:02So it's not as if the defeat at home has stopped him from, in a way, threatening Iran once again
06:08or threatening to strike Iran in, who knows, in the next few days.
06:13Because he's not a rational figure, Raj.
06:15People keep asking me, oh, Mehdi, what do you think is going to happen now?
06:18Now the midterms are over.
06:19Who knows?
06:20You know, you need a psychiatrist to understand Donald Trump better than a political analyst.
06:24Who knows what is going on inside that head of his?
06:26And even people who have studied him for years, even people who know him, work for him,
06:30do not understand why he hitched his entire presidency to Benjamin Netanyahu in this war in Iran.
06:35You and I talked about this a few months ago when I came on your show.
06:38Things have not improved.
06:40The war is not over.
06:41There is no resolution to the Strait of Hormuz.
06:43Donald Trump will not back away from the precipice.
06:45And it's bizarre because he ran so clearly, so popularly.
06:48He went to Dearborn, Michigan, Rajdeep, a big Arab-American city.
06:52And he won votes there by promising them Kamala Harris will take America to war in the Middle
06:56East.
06:57I will not.
06:58I will have no new wars.
06:59There will be no war with Iran.
07:01And then he went to war with Iran, a war that has not ended, a war that's been a disaster
07:05both geopolitically, internationally, but also at home.
07:08And people are scratching their heads wondering why does he not pull back from this clear disaster.
07:12J.D. Vance's own VP is suggesting they should pull back.
07:15But for some reason, and I can't, I wish I could tell you what it is.
07:17He carries on down this crazy path.
07:20You know, it's interesting you mentioned Mehdi there, Michigan.
07:24Now you among others have celebrated Abdul Al Saeed's victory in Michigan,
07:29the first Muslim politician to become a senator.
07:34Now he's been portrayed by the American MAGA coalition and indeed the Indian right as a polarizing figure.
07:42Do you see Al Saeed's victory as him being seen as a bridge builder, broadening this democratic coalition?
07:49Or is victory primarily a reflection of Michigan's particular political and demographic dynamics,
07:56large population from the Middle East?
07:58Is this a victory of progressives or is this a victory of more polarization that could take place in the
08:04United States?
08:05Well, first of all, Rajdeep, forgive me if I don't take lessons on polarizing figures from the Indian right or
08:10MAGA,
08:11who have of course produced their own series of polarizing figures over the years.
08:15Abdul Al Saeed ran a very populist campaign.
08:17He rallied people around him on key issues.
08:20What were his policies, Rajdeep?
08:21It was Medicare for all, get health care for everyone.
08:24It was get money out of politics.
08:25It was put money in your pocket.
08:26Like Zoran Mondani, another Muslim leftist populist in New York.
08:29He ran on a very simple populist, economically focused cost of living agenda.
08:34People say, oh, he's obsessed with Israel.
08:36He's obsessed with Islam.
08:37He's obsessed.
08:37No, look at his campaign.
08:39He ran on a very simple tried and tested campaign for people who are mad.
08:44You mentioned earlier, you know, the MAGA movement.
08:47Is that still survives?
08:48Well, it does because people in this country are mad, right?
08:50Whether you're on the right or the left, people are angry at the political system.
08:54They're angry at a system that doesn't represent them.
08:56They're angry at an oligarchy where the rich get everything.
08:58They're angry at a rigged economic system that has left them behind.
09:01And the question is, who will harness that anger?
09:04Is it people on the right with reactionary, racist, nativist politics?
09:08Or is it people on the left who can actually offer an anti-oligarchy,
09:12an anti-big business, a populist working class campaign?
09:15That is what Abdul Al-Sayed ran on.
09:17And this idea that Michigan is a Muslim...
09:19The Muslim population in Michigan is a few percentage points.
09:22He didn't win the election in this state by seven points
09:25just because of Muslim votes.
09:27He rallied people from across the spectrum.
09:28In fact, one poll before the election, Rajit, found that he did better
09:31at persuading Trump voters to vote for him
09:33than other Democratic candidates in swing states.
09:36No, so you're saying his faith or that of Zoram Mamdani
09:39had little to do with the victory.
09:41It had to do with them taking up real issues of real people.
09:45But at the same time, you're accepting that there is this growing polarization
09:49between the radical right and the radical left,
09:51which leaves the space presumably less and less
09:54for the political center in America.
09:56The problem is, Rajit, maybe those terms still apply in India,
09:59but in the US, as many people have been pointing out
10:01over the last 48 hours, these terms really have no meaning.
10:04Right, left, moderate, center.
10:06Look at what people are running on.
10:07Even quote-unquote moderate Democrats, centrist Democrats who won races across America,
10:13in Texas, in North Carolina, wherever you look, they were running on what?
10:17They were running on, we're anti-billionaire.
10:20We're anti-AI data centers.
10:21We're anti-oligarchy and big corporations.
10:23We want everyone to have health care.
10:26This is the message now.
10:27The Bernie Sanders message of 2016, which was seen as, quote,
10:30radical left, is now mainstream in American politics across the Democratic Party,
10:34because that's where the public is.
10:36The public are fed up with this oligarchy.
10:38They're fed up with a bunch of tech billionaires making all the money,
10:42deciding what they read or see, building AI data centers in their backyards
10:45that drive up their prices.
10:46And that is the kind of anger that Donald Trump ironically harnessed so successfully
10:50in 2016 and 2024.
10:52But now Democrats are harnessing it in these midterms this week.
10:55You know, it's very interesting the way you're putting it,
10:57because one of the most significant verdicts apart from al-Said was in Texas,
11:02a state, you know, which the Republicans hadn't lost in three decades.
11:06And you had Elon Musk putting all his billions into Texas, putting it in other Trump-backed candidates.
11:14Are we, therefore, in this...
11:15You seem to see this almost as a verdict against anti-elitism
11:18or certainly anti-corporate greed or cronyism.
11:22Do you believe that, as a result, the influence that these tech billionaires
11:26or the musts of the world will have on U.S. policies
11:29will actually now take a bit of a beating,
11:32that they will also find themselves...
11:36There's a pushback to that.
11:38Oh, look, these people are the richest people in the world, Raj.
11:41If they're not just going to roll over because the Democrats have taken back Congress,
11:44they're going to push back.
11:45I do hope the Democrats have the courage of their convictions,
11:48don't betray their voters and actually do hold these tech billionaires to count,
11:52do actually hold investigations into what has been happening behind the scenes.
11:55For example, Doge, this enterprise that Elon Musk led in government
11:58to slash aid spending and slash the government, that should be investigated.
12:02But, of course, we're already hearing, Rajdeep, that Elon Musk may get a pardon from Donald Trump.
12:06There's reporting that Donald Trump may just hand out pardons to all of his rich allies
12:10to prevent the Democrats from ever impeaching or investigating or prosecuting them
12:14for any crimes they may have committed in the first two years of this presidency.
12:17I think you'll see a lot of tech bosses, Rajdeep, try and win the battle on AI, right?
12:22That was at the heart of these midterms.
12:24On the majority of Democrats who won ran against AI data centers.
12:28And I think you'll see a lot of billionaires now spending a lot of money on PR campaigns
12:32to convince the American public that AI and AI data centers, they're your friends.
12:36I think we're going to see a massive amount of spending.
12:38They're not just going to roll over these people, of course.
12:41Do you see the Democrats, now that they've taken control of both houses,
12:45actually pushing for the impeachment of Donald Trump or indeed certain people around him?
12:49That is the $64 billion question, whether Democrats go for impeachment.
12:53The leadership don't want it.
12:54Hakeem Jeffries, who will be the new Speaker of the House, he's against it.
12:57They've made it very clear they're not interested in impeaching Trump
12:59because, of course, they don't have enough senators, even now,
13:02even with a new Democratic-controlled Senate, to convict him.
13:04So what would be the purpose, they argue, of impeaching him three times?
13:07The counterargument is he has committed impeachable offenses, so he should be impeached.
13:10But the better counterargument, and one I'm sympathetic to, is you have limited time and resources.
13:15Do you put them after going after Trump, who can't be really convicted?
13:19Or do you go after Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary?
13:21Do you go after RFK Jr., the health secretary?
13:24Do you go after lower-level civil servants?
13:26Do you go after Stephen Miller?
13:27Do you go after Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law,
13:29who's been doing all sorts of dodgy dealings in the Middle East and beyond
13:31while working as a presidential envoy?
13:33There are actually quite lower-hanging, easier fruit targets to hit.
13:37And I think Democrats will definitely be investigating and impeaching someone.
13:40Whether it's Trump, we shall see.
13:42Does this result also, in a broader sense, according to Mehdi Hassan,
13:47mark a setback for the global populist right?
13:50In a sense, we've seen what's happened in Serbia just a couple of weeks ago.
13:54We've seen what's happened in Israel with Netanyahu.
13:57We're seeing what's happened with Donald Trump.
13:59Are we seeing any kind of global trend which is a message, in a way, to the populist strongmen?
14:07Again, I wish I could say yes and say, yes, this is the end of the global populist right.
14:12Unfortunately, that's not the case.
14:13We have an election coming up in France where Marine Le Pen, who's leader of the far right in France,
14:17is still the favorite to be the next president of France, which is a crazy thing to say out loud.
14:2210, 15 years, you would have laughed at me if I said Marine Le Pen might be the next president
14:25of France.
14:25Nigel Farage has definitely dropped in the U.K., his reform party, the hard right leader in the U.K.,
14:30but he's still up there.
14:31He's still polling as high as the other two parties almost.
14:34So, no, they haven't completely been defeated or in retreat.
14:37But, look, they certainly were not happy on Tuesday night when they saw U.S. results,
14:42because Donald Trump has been the de facto self-appointed leader of this kind of global coalition of right-wingers.
14:47Don't forget, Rajdeep, you left out of your list Bolsonaro losing in Brazil.
14:51That was another good victory for people who believe in democracy and progressive politics.
14:55So, look, do I hope that the Brazilian results and the American midterm results
14:59and others spread to India and the U.K. and France?
15:01Of course, I hope that. But let's see what happens.
15:04Okay. My final question, then, at the end of this rather dramatic week,
15:08what, according to you, Mehdi Asan, has changed in America for the better?
15:13And what, according to you, has possibly changed for the worse?
15:17What makes you hopeful and what makes you still a little sceptical?
15:23We didn't mention, by the way, Vivek Ramaswamy, someone whose victory I saw you celebrating particularly furiously.
15:30I mean, you have Al Saeed on one side and you have Ramaswamy on the other.
15:33Yeah. I mean, Ramaswamy, of course, was the politician in Ohio who ran for governor.
15:38Trump ally, ran for president previously, lost badly in a state he should have won.
15:42He ran a very despicable campaign. He ran some horrific ads about his opponents who was a victim of child
15:46sexual abuse.
15:47And he ran ads involving her mother, who was part of that.
15:50It's a horrific example. People can Google it. He lost badly. He deserved to lose.
15:54In terms of your question about hope and scepticism, I'm hopeful because Americans did turn out in insane numbers,
16:01young voters, black voters, Latino voters, to reject Trumpism and Trump.
16:04And also they rejected Islamophobia. In Michigan, the Republican Party threw the entire Islamophobic playbook at Abdul Al Saeed.
16:11He's a terrorist. He's a jihadist. He's a Muslim brother. And ordinary Americans rejected that narrative.
16:15So that was a good win for the people of this country to reject hate and division.
16:19That makes me hopeful as a Muslim American, as someone who's on the left.
16:22What worries me, of course, is that the Democrats never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.
16:26And I worry whether the Democratic Party now, given this mandate, given this huge majority in the House and a
16:31majority in the Senate,
16:32will they actually use it to deliver on an agenda that improves people's lives, that holds Trump to account?
16:37Or will they drop the ball, as Democratic leaders have so often done in recent years? Let us see.
16:41Mehdi Hassan, for joining me on the show and giving us your very, very sharp perspectives
16:48on what's happened in this dramatic week in the United States.
16:52Thank you very much for taking the time off for being with us. Thank you.
16:57Thank you, Rajdeep. Always a pleasure.
17:00Very interesting the way Mehdi Hassan is putting it.
17:03Trumpism hasn't gone anywhere.
17:05Donald Trump himself, though, has been facing the heat from the U.S. voter for promises unfulfilled.
17:12Now, you could argue that all that's happened this week is that old saying in America.
17:17It's the economy stupid.
17:19Because what we've seen in the United States, clearly, is cost of living was rising
17:23and that's why voters voted, presumably, against Trump-backed Republicans,
17:28because it was a betrayal of a promise.
17:30Interestingly, though, in the last few days, we've seen a spike in India's markets
17:34and we are seeing FII investment coming back to India over the last few days.
17:40So, how does the world economy now look in this Trumpian world order?
17:46Joining me now is Neelkand Mishra.
17:49He's executive director at the World Bank.
17:51Joins me from Washington, D.C.
17:52Good to have you, Neelkand, on the show.
17:55Interestingly, as I said, in the three days or so since Donald Trump has suffered this debacle,
18:01midterm election debacle, we're seeing very positive signs from the Indian markets.
18:05A lot to cheer.
18:07FII investment coming into India.
18:09The U.S. markets, on the other hand, much more turbulent with tech stocks in particular.
18:14How do you see it?
18:16What does Trump's defeat domestically mean for the global economy?
18:24Look, the first, like in most elections, what matters is how the election results are being interpreted by the decision
18:33makers.
18:34And I think the markets have been cheered by the fact that the leadership believes a big reason for the
18:41results was the war.
18:44And that has meant that the oil prices have corrected.
18:51They bounced a bit from the bottom two days back, but they're still much lower than they were two weeks
18:56back.
18:58More importantly, the future oil prices, because, see, the near term is always a fear of escalation.
19:06In fact, most people fear that after the midterms there would be a worsening of the war.
19:12But now the October 27 delivery, November 27 delivery oil is now only about $10 higher than what it used
19:21to be pre-war.
19:22So that normalization is, I think, very important for countries like India, which rely on imports for a lot of
19:30their dense energy.
19:31This has also meant that the bond yields have come off.
19:36So the 10-year bond yields in the U.S., which had reached 5.3%, were actually at 4.83
19:43yesterday.
19:43So the cost of capital coming down, the fact that there does seem to be some policy reversal, because many
19:53of the election battles were being contested on the data center policies.
19:59And it does look like there can be a bit of a pullback there, which means that a significant amount
20:05of risk capital, which was being deployed in data centers, can start moving out to other locations.
20:12And which is why in the last two days, we've seen significant reversal in FII flows.
20:17But, you know, presumably, though, Neelkand, the world is still worried with energy market disruptions.
20:24And that has been a major factor in the last few months.
20:27The uncertainty still persists over whether the war will resume or not, given that Donald Trump is still not ruling
20:33the option of striking at Iran.
20:35Do you believe, therefore, that even in this post-Tuesday Trumpian world order, economic policy making will continue to see
20:44uncertainty for a while more?
20:47And that's not good news again.
20:52Look, oil prices are still close to $100 right now, the current spot prices.
20:59I think the expectation is that things will normalize and that the war will end soon.
21:04But the war has to end soon.
21:06There is still the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is also disruptive to energy flows.
21:13And there are fiscal issues.
21:15So generally, you know, for bond yields to come down sustainably, you need much greater clarity on the fiscal pathway.
21:30And I don't see that.
21:32So I think the cost of capital will remain elevated.
21:35I think the reasons why some of the geopolitical uncertainty emerged in the last three, four years, I think those
21:42reasons continue.
21:43So it is going to be a period for the markets where the risk premia need to be elevated, meaning
21:52that the risk appetite will be lower.
21:56And therefore, the capital flows will be a lot more contested than they used to be.
22:03And therefore, the challenges for the economy will persist.
22:07In fact, freight costs for oil globally have been elevated.
22:13I think refining margins are elevated.
22:15So there are many challenges that still persist.
22:17But compared to, say, three days back, I think the situation, the outlook looks a lot better now.
22:26Let me pivot from there, Neelkan Mishra, to the weaponization of tariffs.
22:31This was seen as a major part of Donald Trump's global economic agenda, imposing tariffs often randomly, as he was
22:40accused of.
22:40It caused huge uncertainty and instability across the world, including to us here in India.
22:45Do you see there to be a reversal of that or a pause button press on tariffs?
22:52Will Donald Trump now be much more conscious about what his tariff policy has done, both to the US markets
22:57and across the world?
23:01It makes sense to look at the mechanics of how these things work.
23:07So the number of things that require legislative approval will now become harder.
23:17So it was earlier easier in the Republican-dominated legislature.
23:22But now that becomes harder.
23:25But on the India-US trade thing, I think the Secretary of State was in India a few weeks back.
23:32And he pretty much said that 99% of the deal is stitched.
23:36So I'm not sure that meaningfully has to change from what it was two weeks back.
23:42Because there seems to have been significant progress from what he said.
23:45So you seem very confident that if and when Prime Minister Modi comes, as he's expected next month for the
23:51G20, we could have the Indo-US trade deal linked.
23:54Or would India's negotiating powers in some way be enhanced even in this final stages of the trade deal by
24:00a much weakened Donald Trump at home?
24:05I'm not really sure that is how trade deals actually work.
24:12And where the details are, I'm not privy to.
24:15These are things that happen between the Ministry of Commerce and the US trade negotiators.
24:23So what happens in the next months, what happens in December, I don't think… I mean, I may have my
24:30views, but I don't think it would be appropriate for me to comment.
24:32But what we've seen, of course, as I said, is also a period of clear economic discontent in America.
24:40Inflation, cost of living, which has resulted in this strong vote against Donald Trump.
24:46Is there a… or should there be a realization across the world that we are back to good old, it's
24:52the economy, stupid politics.
24:53And therefore, more and more world leaders, including these political strongmen who are fighting high-profile elections need to get
25:01their act together on the economic front.
25:04Because that is going to become central again to the public discourse in the next few years.
25:10I think the cost of living, the cost of housing, I think these are important questions and concerns which affect
25:18the common man all over the world.
25:21And I think governments need to be alert, especially when election cycles are frequent.
25:28And I must say that very aligned with economic theory, the hardest cause of inflation to address is fiscal indiscipline.
25:43And on that, I think India is a standout.
25:46We are the only large country where the fiscal deficit ratio is now back to or below pre-COVID levels
25:55once you adjust for all the off-balance sheet stuff that used to happen.
25:58And that is one of the reasons that while the near term, because of weather disruption, some vegetable prices may
26:04be up, but our inflation indicators are remarkably well-behaved.
26:07And that is also the reason that despite high oil prices, our external account balances have actually not deteriorated so
26:16much.
26:17So, both June quarter and September quarter, the current account deficit was almost unchanged versus what was there in the
26:26previous year, despite higher oil prices.
26:28And this is all because the government has been disciplined, so aggregate demand is now more being driven by private
26:34sector activity.
26:36And that's kept the economy very stable in what are very turbulent global waters.
26:43Neelkan Mishra, Executive Director of World Bank, joining me there from Washington on the economic fallout of what's happened this
26:50week.
26:50Thank you very much for being with us. I want to now broaden the debate. It's time to turn to
26:55the other big question.
26:56How will the defeat of Trump affect international policy, particularly the Middle East, and as a result, the war with
27:06Iran? Take a look.
27:10Okay, so let's raise now the big questions and widen the debate further.
27:14What does the end of the Trumpian world order really mean for India and the world?
27:21How will Donald Trump respond to a defeat of this scale?
27:26Will Donald Trump now be a lame duck president?
27:29And how should India now be dealing with the White House?
27:32These are some of the questions I will raise.
27:35To widen that debate, joined by Casey Singh, former Indian Ambassador.
27:39Catherine Perez-Shakdam, Middle East expert, joins me from London.
27:44Remember, the Middle East also is churning at this moment.
27:46And Bill Cortez, political strategist, joins me from the United States.
27:50Good to have you all on the show tonight.
27:53I want to come to you, Mr. Cortez, first, because do you go along with the view that this is
27:59the end of the Trumpian world order,
28:01that come 2027 we are going to see less unilateralism, a very different kind of Donald Trump, and a very
28:08different kind of a world order?
28:09Or is it too early to even suggest that?
28:13I think it's far too deep to read from Tuesday's election results and to say that the Trumpian era is
28:21over.
28:22Look, I think it was a repudiation of a number of policies, there's no doubt.
28:26A lot of it were domestic issues that were tied to foreign policy issues like the Iran War and energy
28:33costs that came from that.
28:34But the idea that, you know, the reality is here in the United States, per our constitution, foreign policy still
28:41strongly lies within the executive branch.
28:44And so as conversations we've been having since Tuesday, people expect some big change when it comes to Ukraine and
28:50Russia.
28:51We've already seen that's not the case.
28:52When it comes to Iran, a lot of this decision making still lies with the president and the Pentagon and
28:58the executive branch.
28:59So the idea that things will change because there's a change in Congress, the reality is there are some things
29:06that Congress can do to, I think, slow him down on some things.
29:09They do control the purse strings here.
29:11But the reality is foreign policy still lies with the president and his team.
29:16And so I don't see a big change when it comes to foreign policy, when it comes to U.S.-Indian
29:20policy.
29:21I think things are moving probably not at the pace that a lot of us want to see.
29:25But I do think that we get a trade deal here soon.
29:28And I think the sooner we can do that, the better for everybody.
29:31You know, Catherine Perez-Shakdam just today, the U.S. president has said locked and loaded and further threatening strikes
29:41against Iran.
29:42So there was one view that with Donald Trump significantly diminished by the domestic voters of the United States, he
29:51will think twice before striking Iran.
29:53Do you get that sense that he would now think twice, given the fact that the Iran war, as Bill
29:59mentioned, has had a role on energy costs and indeed on the way the American voter looks at the Trumpian
30:07presidency?
30:09Look, I don't think I think that Mr. President Trump will do what President Trump wants to do.
30:14And I think it's rather clear that he wants to see the end of the regime in Iran, a regime
30:19that has cost the life of a great many people.
30:21Over 40,000 people were killed earlier this year just for protesting and rejecting this regime and wanting to see
30:29another man rise in the regime.
30:30Now, I do believe also that the matter of energy and the energy crisis that we're currently facing in the
30:37West and all over the world has a lot to do with the Iranian regime, less so with President Trump.
30:42I think what he has done quite cleverly was to precipitate an agenda that the Iranian regime wanted to implement
30:50anyway.
30:51I also want to point out that the region, the Middle East, is very unstable, not because of Donald Trump,
30:57but rather because of another country, Qatar, that has been playing guard in the region, pushing an agenda that is
31:04rather radical.
31:05And I think it would be much better for everybody to get on board with Mr. Trump, President Trump, and
31:10realize that the regime, the RSGC, and it's called Muslim Brotherhood and Radicals, cannot govern the region, that we need
31:18to go back to a position where there is freedom of religion, that people are respected for their respective belief.
31:26And that waging war in the name of God that claims to be almighty is not a solution, it's not
31:32a policy, it's an ideology, a radical ideology that we need to stop, and President Trump understands that.
31:38I think many Americans are under the impression that war is disagreeable, I agree, it's never fun.
31:45However, when you are invaded, when you are threatened within your own land, as they fight, fight for your belief,
31:53fight for your civilization, and make sure that the other guy stays down.
31:56No, but the fact is, ma'am, nine months into this war, what have we seen?
32:01We haven't seen, you know, the so-called regime change that Donald Trump spoke of in Iran has led to,
32:08as the joke goes, a regime change in Texas.
32:11We've seen energy costs spiraling.
32:14We've seen the Middle East in complete chaos, and its effect on the rest of the world.
32:20I mean, if you're saying that this has to be a war against a radical Islam, and therefore Donald Trump
32:28is on the right track, the truth of the matter is, we still don't know what the end game is.
32:33Nine months into a war, there is still no clarity on the end game.
32:38How long should the world, therefore, sort of wait to see what Donald Trump does next?
32:43The world wants certainty.
32:46I agree, I agree, and certainty there must be, if only a war is being waged, but you cannot go
32:51halfway.
32:52The problem is that America went half in.
32:54You cannot be half in.
32:55If you want to fight a regime such as that, of the regime, of the Mullahs, you need to go
33:00all in, and you need to destroy, not just, you know, remove a few heads here and there.
33:04It doesn't work this way.
33:06Islamic radicalism is a real threat, not just to the region, but the world.
33:10And until we're serious about it, I'm afraid that they will carry on.
33:13So it's a question of will, it's a question of thoroughness, and making sure, again, that the enemy stays down
33:20because the enemy is destroyed.
33:21You know, you want to respond to that, KC Singh?
33:25Here you've got a voice saying, look, Donald Trump has to, in fact, actually go all in into Iran.
33:30He went half in and has paid the price, and the world has paid a price, according to Catherine there.
33:35Your view, do you believe, after a massive debacle of this kind, when Donald Trump says, locked and loaded to
33:42target Iran, I mean, the world will wonder, what will it take to restrain or check Donald Trump?
33:50Rajdeep, on your program, a day after Iran was attacked, I said that day that Iran is not about to
33:57tumble over.
33:58I said it on 1st of March, where everybody thought Iranian regime was going.
34:02Let me repeat it. It's an ancient civilization, it's a country, it's not going to tumble over.
34:09And President Trump has already tried it.
34:12Let's now get down to what is the argument being made.
34:15Vice President Vance, immediately after the electoral mishap, he came up with four points.
34:23He put it on social media.
34:25Number one, Iran war.
34:27Number two, cost of living.
34:29Number three, America first.
34:32And number four was relationship with Israel.
34:35I think crucial to this is not Qatar.
34:37Qatar is a very small element in all this.
34:40They can be controlled.
34:41Crucial has been Prime Minister Netanyahu and the combined vision of President Trump and Netanyahu to have a new Middle
34:51Eastern order.
34:52That has failed.
34:53Now, in any case, Netanyahu has failed.
34:56The people of Israel have rejected him.
34:58So I think the next few days are very critical until the opposition leader is called in.
35:06And I think the President of Israel is calling him to demonstrate his majority and swearing him in.
35:11Once that happens, I think the danger of war diminishes.
35:16Till then, the danger is there because Prime Minister Netanyahu would like the war to restart so that he can
35:21stop the change of government.
35:23Now, I don't think President Trump is that rash, that having suffered this kind of setback at home, he has
35:31the freedom to do what he wants.
35:33But he has to balance it.
35:35If his own vice president is opposing it, then obviously he can't ignore the feelings within the Republican Party.
35:42After two years' time, they're going to have a presidential election.
35:46President Trump may not have to face it, but there are other leaders, Marco Rubio, et cetera, et cetera, who
35:51have to face it.
35:52So it's not that simple.
35:53But if he does it, and he said he will use a nuclear bomb on the last remaining site, the
36:01enrichment is taking place.
36:02Now, there are reports that, you know, the Russians have told them that if you use a nuclear bomb against
36:09Iran, we'll use one against Ukraine.
36:11So it gets—and imagine if a nuclear bomb is dropped on Iran, the winds are blowing this way, we'll have
36:18the residue coming over Pakistan and India.
36:20Why are we silent?
36:21We should speak about it and say, please stop talking of things like this.
36:25You can't be using nuclear devices in Iran because it's known, and that's been a problem that the winds shift
36:33this way towards us and towards Pakistan.
36:36So I think it's just he has the freedom presidents, when they suffer a setback domestically, is lame duck domestically.
36:44The Democrats have an agenda.
36:46They're going to go after, you know, whatever changes they brought in, Affordable Care Act.
36:52They're going to go after Epstein files.
36:54They want them released.
36:56So they will attack President Trump, families start—but externally, presidents tend to focus on foreign policy when they get limited
37:05domestically.
37:06So he has a freedom to do that.
37:08But the freedom doesn't mean that he's rash enough to try something which is not going to work.
37:13Let me bring in my guest from the United States on that point that, you know, we're looking at Trump,
37:21Bill Cortese, from a very logical point of view.
37:24Someone just suffered a major defeat at home.
37:26He's going to take a step back.
37:28With Donald Trump, the experience has been when pushed to the wall, he's capable of doing something which might sort
37:34of surprise people.
37:36You know, he wants to be the center of attention, wants headline management.
37:40But assume that Eisenkot, Netanyahu's rival, is sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel.
37:47And he's no soft liner.
37:48He's a hard liner too.
37:49And there's Donald Trump weakened domestically.
37:53Do you believe that that makes the world a safer place, as Casey seems to suggest?
37:58Or it still is a world which could go anyway?
38:02Look, I think we've seen this episode before with President Trump in his first term, when the party took a
38:09shellacking in 2018 in that cycle.
38:13And, you know, the president, again, still has a large purview in terms of what he's able to do when
38:19it comes to foreign policy.
38:20And to go back to what we were talking about before, you can't be half pregnant with something like this.
38:26And the reality was the president was given a number of options for real regime change.
38:30Now, we can argue whether going into Iran was the right or wrong thing.
38:34But the reality is, if you do go into Iran, if the idea is to ensure that the Iranians don't
38:39have a nuclear weapon, which is what the president continues to pivot back to,
38:44and to make sure that the IRGC cannot use their proxies across the Middle East and across the world,
38:51then you either have to go in and do the job, or you're going to have to come up with
38:55some negotiated settlement, which they've tried multiple times.
38:59The MOU clearly didn't work.
39:01It wasn't worth the paper it was written on.
39:03So the reality is, as the president looks at his options moving forward, I mean, he's still, again, going to
39:10have a sort of a wide swath to be able to do what he feels is best.
39:14I don't know what happens in terms of the domestic issues in Israel, what a Gadi Eisenkot prime ministership looks
39:22like in terms of the relationship with the United States.
39:25To your point, he's still a hawk.
39:27It's just a matter of what flavor hawk you have in Israel.
39:31But, you know, and I think that, you know, they're going to have their own domestic and their own regional
39:36issues that they're going to focus on here, too.
39:38But the fact is, I think we faced, from an electoral standpoint, a reality on the ground over in the
39:45Middle East where you can continue to say that the Strait of Hormuz is open.
39:49But when the Iranians continue to blow up tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, you know, the markets did not
39:54react that way.
39:56They did not react to an open Strait of Hormuz.
39:59And so I think that's where the president's going to sit here and look at the next two years.
40:04He could get, I think, chopped up a little bit here domestically.
40:07But for the most part, he's going to, I think, do what he thinks is best.
40:11I think he recognized, too, and he said it, that he was not going to deal with Iran based on
40:17an electoral calendar.
40:19And that's very clear.
40:20A lot of us were advocating early on in the year that, you know, if you were going to go
40:25in to wrap this up the best you can and bring some certainty and bring energy costs down in the
40:32spring and give us the summer into the fall.
40:34But the reality is the president did what he feels is best.
40:37That's debatable, and, you know, we can debate that point.
40:41But the fact is, if you're going into Iran, it's the old Napoleon quote.
40:45If you move to take Vienna, take Vienna.
40:47If you move to go and remove the nuclear weapons and you go to remove the IRGC, then you have
40:53to go in and do it completely.
40:55This isn't an Iraq-level blunder in terms of putting 300,000 troops on the ground and being caught in
41:02that quagmire.
41:02This is a different quagmire.
41:04And I think the president does have options to get out of it, but ultimately he has to decide.
41:09You know, in that sense, Catherine, isn't he in a quagmire?
41:13This is a president now who is, we all agree, has been significantly debilitated at home.
41:20He still has options abroad.
41:23Are you, do you believe that therefore he will, to use your words, now go all in, given what's going
41:31to happen at home?
41:33I do. I really do.
41:35I'd like to remind your viewers and your guests also, respectfully, that we cannot compare the Iranian regime with the
41:42Iranian people.
41:43And I do appreciate they are indeed a very old civilization, an old civilization that lives under occupation by a
41:49regime that I'd like to remind everyone is abominable.
41:53And so the idea that we're going to war with the Iranians is wrong.
41:58However, yes, we should go to war with the Iranian regime that oppresses its people.
42:03And that is bad, a bad actor for the regime.
42:05No, an endless war, ma'am, sorry to interrupt.
42:07An endless war, it's nine months.
42:09The president said this war would end in three weeks.
42:12We're now nine months into the war.
42:14And you're saying he must go into the, you know, he must still go all in, given what's happened in
42:20America, given energy costs, given that the world finds itself, you know, living in an age of extreme uncertainty and
42:27instability?
42:29Allow me to give you the alternative of not going to war against the Islamic regime.
42:34It would be an invasion of Europe.
42:36It would be seeing many proxies, put their head above the parapet again.
42:42It would be a repeat of the religious oppression that we have seen going on.
42:47It would be, I would say, an injury against democratic aspirations.
42:52It would be condemning communities, millions of people, 90 plus million of people to slavery, essentially, because this regime, and
43:00I have been in Iran, I have infiltrated the regime.
43:02And so I know what it wants.
43:04It wants to enslave the body and the mind of its people and control everything that they do from cradle
43:10to death.
43:11Is that a fate that you would want for your people?
43:13I would imagine not.
43:15I would imagine that 90 plus million people would like to see a war in Iran, not because the war
43:20would be against them, but against a regime that they want to see gone.
43:23And they want to see the return of the Shah.
43:25Now, personally, I am not Iranian.
43:28And so I don't get to decide what happens in Iran after, the day after.
43:32However, what I would like to see is for a trade route to be reestablished.
43:36I would like to see genuine actors in the region go back to the table and negotiate a true peace,
43:42not a peace that is predicated on the lunacy of molars and the Islamic radicalism.
43:48We need to say, no, we need to draw a line.
43:50And I do believe that India has fought greatly and courageously, I may add, against Islamic radicalism.
43:56It would be a mistake to condemn 90 plus million people to a fate that will exist outside the borders
44:01of Iran and has already landed in the UK, in Belgium, in France, in Germany, in Spain.
44:07And you could see the results of this.
44:10Yeah, but, you know, then we are talking of countries unilaterally.
44:14You seem to suggest, therefore, that Donald Trump is still, has reason to pursue this war.
44:21There's a missionary zeal to it, almost.
44:24But, Casey Singh, domestic versus foreign.
44:28There will be those who argue that this week has seen Donald Trump lose out, why?
44:32Because of corruption, because of high gas prices.
44:36Yes, Vance did refer to the Iran war as a reason for his defeat.
44:40But there will be others, many others, who are saying this is primarily a defeat cause because of a failure
44:45to handle the promises he made.
44:47Now, one of those promises was that he wouldn't take America to war, which he exactly has done just the
44:52opposite.
44:53Do you believe that you can separate the domestic and the foreign policy so easily?
45:00Well, certainly not when you're dealing with Iran.
45:02And, you see, let me remind your guest who thinks just going into Iran is like a picnic and you
45:07can just go in there.
45:08They went into Afghanistan, a much smaller country with a much smaller population.
45:13And what happened to radical Islam there?
45:15You've got a Taliban government today.
45:17And it's Trump who negotiated the exit from Afghanistan.
45:20So, it's not that easy to go into countries and change their character.
45:25You have to basically leave it to them.
45:27There are Christian countries which are radical, which are talking about.
45:31So, it's got nothing to do with religion.
45:34Essentially, you have to look at what is doable.
45:37Iran has a huge trained military.
45:40It has a rugged terrain.
45:42I mean, American, I don't think U.S. is ready to send their entire army in.
45:47And we don't even know if the next prime minister of Israel would be willing to join in, in a
45:52ground assault.
45:54And...
45:55So, what's the...
45:56But at the same time, Casey Singh, with due respect, probably, you know, you need a deal, right?
46:00If war is not the option, as you're saying, particularly after a defeat of this scale, do you strike a
46:07deal?
46:08And if so, what kind of deal do you strike?
46:10As Catherine Perez, Shaktam and others like her would say, then you're allowing the...
46:14You know, you're allowing the regime to perhaps get away, is how they see it.
46:19You see, who is the person who had insisted that Iranians will not go towards a nuclear weapon?
46:26It was the previous supreme leader whom they killed.
46:30Netanyahu assassinated him, and he's the one who was the wall between Iran getting a nuclear weapon and not.
46:37They were basically willing to...
46:40Who did the JSPO, the nuclear agreement?
46:42It's Trump who pulled America out of the nuclear agreement.
46:46No, so are you saying a deal is still possible?
46:48No, a deal is possible, but on terms which will be favoring Iran much more than before the war.
46:55Iranians were already talking.
46:56If you recall, the day the attack took place, Iranians were negotiating in Oman with the delegation indirectly from U
47:04.S.
47:04And Netanyahu insisted, and Trump fell.
47:08And what did President Obama say?
47:09That the same arguments were given to him by Prime Minister Netanyahu, and he kicked him out of the White
47:16House.
47:16Exactly the same arguments.
47:18That we killed the supreme leader, we bombed them, people will rise up, and we'll have a liberal democratic regime.
47:25It doesn't happen like that.
47:26This is so childish, thinking like that.
47:29As I said, do you have a democratic regime in Afghanistan today?
47:33And look at the energy and time that the Americans have spent.
47:36Iran is 50 times the strength of Afghanistan.
47:40There's no way that America can go in and just do something.
47:45They're threatening to use nuclear weapons.
47:47How can you even think of doing that?
47:49Then imagine which other countries will do it.
47:51North Korea will start using them against South Korea or Japan.
47:56Then you have, Russians have already said, we'll use it in Ukraine.
47:59Once you take that restriction off and the stigma is gone, then you're opening the world to a very dangerous
48:06place.
48:07So can I ask each of you for a minute each, how has the world changed in the last week?
48:14You go first, Bill.
48:17How has the world, according to you, changed, if at all?
48:19Has it changed?
48:20Is it a safer place than it was before Super Tuesday?
48:25I don't think, look, I think people are overplaying what these elections were here in the United States
48:31of what it means internationally and from a foreign policy standpoint.
48:36You know, I've had a number of conversations with people that were celebrating,
48:41thinking that this was going to be some real, you know, forced Trump to do certain things.
48:45But the reality is, I don't think much is going to change,
48:49especially in these next two months where he has this lame duck session.
48:54So I don't think a lot has changed.
48:56I think it's, you know, overblown in terms of what happened.
48:59I think it's a domestic blow, there's no doubt.
49:02But internationally, not much is going to change over the next two years.
49:06The president's going to do what the president's going to do.
49:08And I think he's got to have to decide.
49:10That's the reality here.
49:11Either you go all in, and by all in, I don't mean nuclear weapons,
49:15and I don't mean troops on the ground.
49:17But you cannot continue this sort of, you know, one foot in, one foot out.
49:22Or you're going to have to negotiate a real deal that actually has some teeth and is durable.
49:27And they haven't been able to do that either.
49:29So President Trump years ago tweeted,
49:32the Iranians never lost a war or won a war or lost a negotiation.
49:37And we're back at this right now.
49:39Those words, I think, ring true right now.
49:42So I don't think much has changed.
49:43Domestically, it certainly has.
49:45Internationally, I don't think it's changed.
49:48Perez Shaktam, do you believe the world has changed in the last one week
49:51with Donald Trump hobbled at home?
49:55I believe that America has been weakened by the voice of the Democrats.
49:58I'm not a fan personally, but again, my opinion doesn't matter.
50:02I'm not American.
50:03However, in terms of the Middle East, I think that military movement right now
50:06and what will happen in the next 48 hours will tell you whether the region has changed.
50:11I still do believe that we have, that the regime has no business being in the position
50:16that it is right now, that millions of people are being oppressed and I'm not of the mind
50:20of allowing them.
50:21As for a nuclear weapon, can we actually afford for the regime to obtain one?
50:25The response should be always no, because they are Islamic radicals
50:29and if you do not respect the sanctity of life and I get a personal issue with that
50:33and so should the rest of the world.
50:36But will it make any difference who's in charge in Israel come next week?
50:42No.
50:44It won't make any difference?
50:45No.
50:46No.
50:46Okay.
50:47It won't make any difference.
50:48Casey Singh, final point, therefore.
50:50Do you believe the world is in a very different place now or do you believe with Donald Trump
50:55the only thing you can predict is unpredictability?
50:58No, we said we agree on one thing, that where foreign policy and external relations are concerned,
51:03he's got much greater freedom.
51:05But I think what's going to happen is that Democrats are going to go for him personally.
51:09You see, they'll want the Epstein files out.
51:11Already the photographs are coming out.
51:13They'll go after his family.
51:14They'll go after his son-in-law who's taken money from Saudi Arabia.
51:17They've been running businesses, there's conflicts of interest, corruption is obvious
51:22and I think the people of America have voted against that.
51:25So once he's weakened domestically on those counts, it'll become more and more difficult.
51:30There's talk already that you can actually impeach him because if they have almost 60 senators
51:36themselves, they need nine more because they have the majority in the House.
51:41In Senate, you need 69 votes.
51:43So you're saying the primary challenge that Donald Trump faces in the months ahead is
51:48domestic.
51:49He could even be impeached and therefore that you believe will force him almost to be more
51:56restrained.
51:57Am I correct?
51:58I would imagine that.
51:59I think survival is something which any autocratic leader realizes.
52:03Right.
52:04And for survival.
52:05So he's threatening.
52:07He's threatened so many times and there are reports of markets, you know, shares being
52:11used, shares being sold.
52:13It used to happen at the end of the week.
52:14By Monday, they say we'll talk.
52:16By Friday, they say we'll bomb.
52:18You know, it's calling the wolf so many times.
52:21Nobody knows what he's going to do or not going to do.
52:23But I think whatever he can do is not going to change Iran because he, I don't think U.S.
52:30is ready to start a, send ground troops in.
52:34And even if you send ground troops in, it's not going to end immediately.
52:37It'll be a very long ground out thing.
52:39There are mountains there.
52:40There's terrain there.
52:41And they're trained fighters.
52:43IRGC will fight back.
52:44It's a country of 19 million.
52:46It's not 10, 15, 20 million people.
52:50And why I say, sorry, Rajdi, why I say civilizational nations are important, people may be oppressed.
52:58But they'd rather be oppressed by their own regime than by Trump or by Netanyahu.
53:04So that's where they've fallen behind the regime.
53:06That's why we don't see any protests now.
53:08So if you attack them, the nation comes together.
53:12Same applies to India.
53:13If there's a foreign attack, they come together.
53:16And I think that's what Trump has done.
53:18By attacking them, he's actually weakened whatever opposition was there to the regime.
53:23Thank you all very much, though, for joining us.
53:25Three fine voices giving us very different perspectives on this post-Super Tuesday Trumpian world order.
53:32Thank you for joining me.
53:34It's time now for my take.
53:37Okay, we've listened to a variety of diverse voices.
53:40I want to leave you on our special roundtable on the Trumpian world order with my take.
53:47Has the Trumpian world order begun to unravel?
53:50It would be tempting to see the American midterm verdict as the beginning of the end of this Trumpian world
53:56order.
53:56A world that is unstable and uncertain like never before in a very long time, certainly.
54:02But I would be a little bit more cautious.
54:05Yes, American voters have sent Donald Trump a firm message at home.
54:09The sweeping democratic victory with the party winning control of both the House and the Senate is a significant rebuke
54:15to a presidency increasingly defined by disruption, confrontation, polarization, corruption, and an economic agenda that has left many ordinary Americans
54:25struggling with the cost of living.
54:26The Iran war and its impact on fuel prices clearly added to the backlash.
54:30But does this mean Trumpism is dead?
54:33I'm afraid far from it.
54:35MAGA remains a formidable political movement.
54:38The endless search for an enemy figure.
54:40And the forces that propelled Donald Trump to power have hardly disappeared.
54:45Nor should we assume that a domestic electoral setback will automatically translate into a change in America's global posture.
54:52And therefore, the war in Iran could well resume.
54:56Trump still has considerable executive powers, particularly in foreign policy.
55:00And his approach to the world will remain like the man himself, unpredictable.
55:05So by all means, the world should welcome this moment as a reminder that democratic accountability still works.
55:12And that imperious presidencies will invite a popular backlash sooner or later.
55:17But let's not confuse a setback for Trump the individual at home with the end of the Trumpian world order
55:24abroad.
55:25The message has been delivered.
55:26Whether it changes the course of contemporary history remains to be seen.