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00:04Andiamo subito a sentire l'intervista di Andrea Orcel che sta rilasciando in diretta in questo momento i nostri colleghi
00:11londinesi.
00:30This is propelled by exactly the two things we said it would be.
00:32Our revenues are up 12, propelled by core revenues that are 90%, so high quality.
00:39Costs are down, again, 1%.
00:42That means that now our cost-income ratio is below 33%, and exactly where we said it could be.
00:49And frankly, the levers that we had identified in terms of gaining market share profitably at flat margins and flat
00:58risk is occurring.
01:00And continuing to transform, leveraging AI to get...
01:04E allora stiamo ascoltando l'intervista di Andrea Orcel a nostri colleghi londinesi.
01:12In qualche modo sta rivendicando, ovviamente, quello che Unicredit ha definito il miglior trimestre di sempre con un utile retto
01:21di 3,36 miliardi. Sentiamo.
01:24We're really, really proud about the results, obviously.
01:26This is our record quota ever.
01:29We beat across the board, across all KPIs.
01:32I think we beat and outperformed the entire sector.
01:37Our profit is up 24%.
01:40Our return on tangible is above 25%, and most improved.
01:44This is propelled by exactly the two things we said it would be.
01:47Our revenues are up 12, propelled by core revenues that are 90%, so high quality.
01:53Costs are down, again, 1%.
01:57That means that now our cost-income ratio is below 33%, and exactly where we said it could be.
02:03And frankly, the levers that we had identified in terms of gaining market share profitably at flat margins and flat
02:13risk is occurring.
02:14And continuing to transform leveraging AI to get us to the next level is happening.
02:22So we're very optimistic on the operating performance of the bank, and we attack the fourth quarter and 27 and
02:30beyond with momentum.
02:32Are you seeing the ROI on the AI, and will you ultimately need fewer people to do all the work?
02:38Look, what's happening at the moment is mostly a shifting of people.
02:43I think AI for companies that are able to use it and that are able to change their organization, their
02:50processes, their way of working correctly is really a lever that we didn't anticipate we would have.
02:58And it's working extremely well, but for us, it is also an ability to shift our people from repetitive tasks
03:08to value-adding tasks.
03:10And if you look, for example, at Italy, we used to be about 55% support and 45% talking
03:19to clients directly or indirectly.
03:20Now that number has become 25-75, so we're moving people to much more commercial tasks, much more value-added
03:29tasks.
03:30Let's stick with AI because it seems as though the big AI trade is unwinding.
03:35Any thoughts on that and the bigger market implications here of the midterm win by the Democrats here in terms
03:42of the further outlook for interest rates?
03:45Well, look, I think for us, what is important about AI is that now it's here.
03:52We don't even need much more sophisticated models because we're a bank.
03:57And the application, we're getting really excellent outcome out of it.
04:03The broader sector, there is a lot more speculation, uncertainty, and there will be a transition.
04:10We know where we will be in 5 to 10 years.
04:12We don't know what's happening in the next few years in terms of where is the speculation and what happened
04:17to all the spend that is occurring in the sector.
04:20But we're not exposed and we'll take the output of it.
04:24With respect to elections, I think in general we have a complicated geopolitical environment, an uncertain matter environment.
04:32For us, it's an opportunity.
04:35It's an opportunity to accelerate.
04:38As I said, we have momentum, but we also have lines of defense.
04:41We have very high overlays, the highest in the sector, very high capital, the highest in the sector.
04:47We've taken all the investment on transformation over the last five years, which means we don't need to take them
04:54going forward.
04:55So as we move into this environment, I think for us it's an opportunity.
05:00Let's talk about the capital level, CET1 ratio, very strong.
05:04You're in a very comfortable level here of 15%.
05:08You're doubling your interim dividend here.
05:11What can investors expect in terms of other capital returns from your bank going forward?
05:16Well, we were very clear.
05:18We will return to investor 80% of our net profit.
05:22And we said that the condition on that was that our organic capital generation would beat net profit, so that
05:29we would not dent capital as we return to investor.
05:32That's the right thing to do.
05:33Our organic capital generation is best in the sector, and it beats net profit, so they should expect the entire
05:40distribution that we committed to.
05:41And going forward, we see an acceleration of net profit.
05:47We have already communicated well above 13 billion in 2018, well above 15 billion net profit in 2030.
05:55We will review the targets when we understand better the environment with the end-year results.
06:01But they should count at the moment on 80% of that as long as our organic capital generation supports
06:08it, and it will.
06:09So, yes.
06:10Andrea, let's talk about Commerzbank, shall we?
06:13You recently met the German finance minister.
06:16What kind of promises are you able to make when it comes to the headquarters, the listing, the jobs?
06:23Well, I think you heard both the minister and I saying that the talks had been constructive and positive.
06:31I think we have a lot of agreement.
06:33Like in this situation, which are complicated, there are also some things that we need to iron out.
06:38But I think Unicredit has every intention to have a strong, constructive relationship with the German government.
06:48And we want the combination of Unicredit and Commerzbank to happen in the best way possible.
06:56So there is a lot of agreement.
06:57I would say that, yes, discussion have touched headquarters.
07:02They have touched…
07:03Will it stay in Frankfurt?
07:04Will the listing stay?
07:05Well, it's premature for me to tell you, but I think we are flexible on that.
07:13We also have spoken about keeping the bank listed, respecting the history, commitment to the Mittelstand.
07:21You heard me.
07:21I went public with it.
07:22Yes.
07:22And I don't think there is any doubt about that.
07:25Social issues.
07:27And we think we have a good platform and a good base to discuss those.
07:30And therefore, I think all the elements that are on the table are achievable.
07:36You talked about the social issues.
07:38I think what you wanted to cut was something around 7,000 jobs.
07:43Unions are afraid it's going to be almost double of that.
07:46Where will the number land, you think?
07:48So it won't be.
07:49I think there is…
07:51When we commit something at Unicredit, we do it.
07:53So if we say we're going to cut X, we're going to cut X.
07:59Obviously, we want to discuss the way with the workers' representative.
08:05But fundamentally, a lot of what we're going to do is around investment and double down on Germany.
08:12We think there is a lot more opportunity on Germany than people see.
08:16We had that same position in 2020 when everybody said you cannot make money out of Germany.
08:21In this quarter, we have a return on equity that is almost 25%.
08:25So we're bullish about Germany.
08:28Yes, the transition is difficult.
08:31But after the transition, we're going to see a lot of growth and a lot of opportunities.
08:36And we want to be there in the difficult times to show what we can do.
08:39When will this be wrapped up?
08:41What's the timeline here?
08:42You still need more regulatory approval.
08:44There is an EGM that needs to happen.
08:47You're going to replace large parts of the supervisory board, the CEO.
08:50When will that be finalized?
08:51The supervisory approvals or approvals in general are taking much less time than we originally anticipated.
09:00We're saying today that our best expectation of the moment is that we will get all approvals by the end
09:06of November.
09:06That would mean that we have a timeline where control will shift, governance will change, and we will be able
09:15to kick off Commerce Bank Unlocked, our plan.
09:24How early or late, still not clear, but we're quite optimistic that as we are on a very good trajectory
09:32on the rest of Unicredit, we have now time to also focus on engaging with Commerce Bank and making sure
09:39they do the same.
09:40Can you give Germany two seats on the supervisory board?
09:43Well, we don't discuss this detail, but they are being discussed.
09:47All right.
09:48Now that, in a way, the genie is out of the bottle, you've done this cross-border deal.
09:52You're very close to completing it.
09:54Are you hungry for more?
09:56No.
09:57I think our strategy since the beginning was predicated on generating the most shareholder value, not only in a quarter,
10:06not only in a year, but over time.
10:08Commerce Bank, with their German and Polish franchise, was a perfect fit to achieve full critical mass between the two
10:17banks in Germany and increase the contribution of Germany to the group and re-entering Poland, which for us was
10:24critical given its connection to Germany and to the rest of CE and Italy as well.
10:29So, it did happen.
10:32That did not derail or affect in any way what Unicredit is delivering underneath.
10:39It won't.
10:41But this combination is actually, in my opinion, quite soft because we don't have a presence in Poland, so there's
10:48little to expect in terms of disruption.
10:51And in Germany, because of the complementarity of the two franchises.
10:55And I want to say my expectation that the culture of the two banks, of the people who work every
11:01day, is quite similar.
11:03We actually think there will be a lot less disruption than other people would hope.
11:07Right.
11:08And therefore, it will be a positive, an opportunity to gain market share and not to lose it.
11:13I understand you've got your hands full with this transaction.
11:16But there's a lot happening here in Italy as well.
11:19And we got more news this morning.
11:21In terms of further growth, inorganic growth, would that be in Italy?
11:26Would that be across Europe?
11:27Because now you've set the precedent.
11:30European cross-border banking M&A, that can happen.
11:33And last year you said you're kind of done here in Italy.
11:36So, can you clarify that?
11:38Yes.
11:38We said last year and then we repeated before the summer that we're just an observer.
11:43We also said before the summer that the deal we're discussing today was very likely to occur.
11:51We saw that as an opportunity, an opportunity to accelerate our organic growth.
11:56As you saw from our numbers in the targeted segments, August to August we won 130 business points of market
12:02share.
12:03This is unheard of in any market.
12:05The momentum at the moment is in excess of 10 business points per month.
12:09Our margins are flat.
12:11Our risk is improving.
12:13So, it is delivering.
12:15In that environment, the fact that now of the top seven banks in Italy, there is only one not engaged
12:22in M&A, not engaged in disruption, integration, bringing things together, antitrust remedies, means we have plenty of time and
12:35plenty of opportunity to accelerate further this growth.
12:39And the way we look at it internally, we're going to get to 15% market share and we're going
12:44to do it without spending a penny of premium and actually generating a lot of value for our investors.
12:50So, observing is the right thing to do and we're happy about that.
12:54We have our combination in Germany.
12:57We discussed that.
12:58We have the deal in CE.
13:00We discussed that as well.
13:02If in the future there are some targeted bolt-on in certain of our market, we'll look at it.
13:08But for us now, it's delivery, delivery, delivery.
13:11Message understood.
13:12When I take a look at your share price, though, and we talked about this off camera for a little
13:16bit, you said you're not in the business of managing your share price every single day.
13:20But you've got to wonder, the stock is down, you know, double digits of the last month or so, along
13:24with the rest of the banking sector, P.E. now between 8 or 9 or so.
13:30What is it that investors are not seeing when it comes to your bank and the entire European banking sector
13:36right now?
13:36Or is it just a matter of it's done incredibly well, it was time to take profits?
13:41Look, I think if you look at the European banking sector overall and at Unicredit within it, both are incredibly
13:51undervalued.
13:52There are a lot of assumptions on what may or may not happen in the future.
13:57I cannot talk about others, but for us, they're going to be proven wrong.
14:02And I do think, as one of the largest single owners of stock of Unicredit, that we will be looking
14:11at ourselves in a while and people will say we've missed the opportunity or we've missed the window because many
14:19assumptions are being made that actually quarter after quarter are being demonstrated not to be correct.
14:24So we'll see.