- 3 years ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days.
The north to south contrast of the past few days comes to an end as cooler weather spreads across the UK. Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern.
The north to south contrast of the past few days comes to an end as cooler weather spreads across the UK. Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern.
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00:00 Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend covering the rest of August
00:03 and therefore the rest of meteorological summer and of course the rest of the school summer
00:08 holidays. Now there's been a big contrast north to south this week so far across the UK and in
00:14 fact across much of Europe. We've got this cooler air across north-western parts of the UK whilst
00:21 further south some warm sunshine but further south again central and southern France much of Iberia
00:26 seeing at the moment a heat wave some intense heat here high 30s low 40s in places. And if you were
00:34 watching the 10-day trend last week or the deep dive on the Met Office YouTube channel you'll know
00:38 that there was a lot of uncertainty about this week and the north-south position of this intense
00:45 heat. One or two rogue computer moral runs had this intense heat much further north but we were
00:51 saying at the time these were outliers and the majority of computer model runs were keeping
00:57 things fairly cool and changeable across northern parts of the UK with some warmth towards the south.
01:03 Some of these model runs were also indicating severe thunderstorms on the boundary between the
01:08 heat in the south and the cooler stuff further north and in fact that's what we're going to see
01:14 across northern France on Wednesday night going into Thursday. Low pressure over Iberia moves
01:19 north at the same time the jet stream a dip in that moves across central parts of the UK and
01:26 eventually swings in and interacts with that intense heat and the boundary between the hot
01:30 air across France and the cooler air across northern parts of the UK to produce some very
01:36 lively showers and thunderstorms across northern France and parts of the English Channel on
01:40 Wednesday night into Thursday. But as that jet stream swings south it displaces the heat elsewhere
01:46 across the continent and brings the cool changeable stuff that is currently across northern parts of
01:51 the UK to the rest of the UK to much of Ireland into France as well you can see how those colours
01:57 are turning much cooler. Low pressure then deepens as we go into the weekend and we're into this more
02:05 changeable cooler airflow for the start of what is for many people in the UK a long weekend. But
02:13 let's take a look closely at the thunderstorms that we're expecting over northern France on
02:19 Thursday morning because they're not just going to affect northern France they're going to affect
02:22 southern parts of the UK or at least the boundary of them are in terms of heavy rainfall. So these
02:27 are the intense showers and thunderstorms and some showers of a non-thundery variety predominantly
02:33 will affect southern parts before eventually this whole thing becomes more organised into quite a
02:38 complex but organised area of thundery outbreaks. And some uncertainty about this but it does look
02:44 likely that some of the heavy rain on the boundary of that will extend into the south-east of England
02:48 but most of the serious kind of hail and lightning will be confined to northern France. Once that
02:56 spell of heavy rain on Thursday morning in the south-east is out of the way we go back to showers
03:01 across south-eastern parts for later in the day and for the rest of the UK actually there will be
03:05 some heavy rain clearing the north and north-east of Scotland pushing into Orkney by lunchtime and
03:10 then eventually Shetland. Scattered showers follow for western and central Scotland, northern Ireland
03:14 as well one or two for northern England. A central swathe of the UK, Wales, the Midlands, parts of
03:19 northern England seeing mostly fine conditions, south-west England after some showers early on
03:24 clearing up but there's always the potential for some further rain or showers there in the south-east
03:28 because we're closer to that area of low pressure moving through the continent. Still some warmth
03:33 though for the south-east, 25 Celsius there for London. I think a cooler airflow for the rest of
03:38 the UK, this cooler air is sinking south and that's the theme as we go through the rest of Thursday
03:45 and into Friday. Low pressure deepening to the north-east of the UK with various old occluded
03:52 fronts providing a focus for showers but all in all it's basically a showery north-westly airflow
03:58 what we call a polar maritime air mass on Friday and the same again on Saturday with that low
04:03 pressure in the North Sea and a mixture of sunny spells and showers for many but where we've got
04:08 these occluded fronts perhaps a focus for showers perhaps some longer spells of rain as well.
04:13 I think towards the south-east it will be much drier and brighter and on Friday some decent
04:18 sunny spells especially during the morning before the cloud builds and a cloudy picture for many by
04:23 the afternoon with quite a number of showers coming through and you can see how some of these
04:27 will be more organised into longer spells of rain especially for Scotland and for parts of South
04:32 Wales and South West England some lively downpours but in between the showers there will be some
04:36 brighter spells although will be a cool airflow temperatures back down towards average for many
04:42 I think a bit cooler than average in some spots. Saturday similar conditions, sunny spells for many
04:48 as we begin things the cloud builds the showers come through on that unstable polar maritime airflow
04:55 certainly lively showers in places rumbles of thunder and so on but equally other areas will
05:01 escape a lot of the showers especially towards the south and south-east, eastern Scotland for example
05:06 and see some sunny spells but you can see how those temperatures are declining day by day and
05:12 that's one aspect of the forecast that we're fairly confident about temperatures in London
05:18 at the moment 27 Celsius dropping over the next few days progressively back to around 21 Celsius
05:23 by later in the weekend and the start of next week and flatlining really throughout much of next week.
05:30 Glasgow on the other hand is already in that cooler more changeable airflow and so little
05:35 change here we just keep it so it's an evening up we lose that north-south contrast we're all in the
05:40 same boat by the weekend essentially and that boat has low pressure involved in it and another low
05:47 in fact coming along to the north-west of Scotland for Sunday bringing a series of weather fronts
05:52 bringing a spell of rain early on across Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing by the afternoon into
05:56 northern and western England as well as Wales a bright start towards the south-east cloud builds
06:01 rain by evening but this whole system is weakening as it sinks south-eastward so not much rain
06:06 associated with it showers follow for north-western parts of the UK. So how can we summarise the
06:14 weekend well essentially Friday to Sunday we've got low pressure in control that's going to be
06:22 situated mainly to the north or north-east of the UK bringing a cool north-west of the airflow
06:26 and average or slightly below average temperatures there'll be some rain some heavy showers at times
06:34 but also some sunshine the winds aren't going to be particularly strong and the rain isn't going to
06:41 be particularly prolonged I don't think it's more showery stuff and so certainly the potential for
06:49 getting out and doing stuff but worth paying attention to the Met Office radar and forecast
06:54 rain on the Met Office app just to plan your day around the weather if you've got stuff to do
07:00 outside through the weekend and of course it's a bank holiday weekend for not for Scotland for
07:05 Northern Ireland for England and for Wales and of course at the moment we are heading towards peak
07:13 tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic it's always the case that these little features in
07:19 the tropical Atlantic throw up some uncertainty for the late August bank holiday and this year
07:24 is no exception it's this one we've got our eye on for this weekend now this is rewinding the
07:31 clock to Thursday the day after I'm recording this and this is ex-tropical cyclone or ex-tropical
07:37 storm Emily now it may well develop back into tropical storm Emily as it gets picked up by
07:43 some upper level winds over the next couple of days but either way it's an area of low pressure
07:49 that is of interest because it moves north and gets picked up by the jet stream and when these
07:53 small but very energetic systems get picked up by the jet stream well they can often throw a
07:59 spanner into the works and evolve some uncertainty for the forecast into the future because they're
08:06 so small but they're so full of energy that subtle differences in how they interact with
08:11 the jet stream can have big consequences several days into the future not only that but there's
08:19 another low to watch out for as we head into the weekend in fact there's three here let's just talk
08:25 about them for a moment here's the low that's bringing some rain on Sunday this one is ex-tropical
08:32 storm Emily being picked up by one branch of the jet stream but there's another branch of the jet
08:37 stream coming out of Canada potentially picking up this low near Iceland so once the low that
08:44 we're fairly confident about moves through on Sunday we've got two other lows in the mix heading
08:49 towards the UK being picked up by two separate branches of the jet stream needless to say it's
08:54 all very complicated and the computer models are all disagreeing about how the jet stream or how
09:00 these different branches of the jet stream deepen or don't deepen these various areas of low pressure
09:05 what does the Met Office model do well it actually starts to focus its energy on the low to the north
09:11 and that's the low that drives forward for bank holiday Monday Emily the ex-tropical storm
09:16 disappears hardly anything by the end of bank holiday Monday so this situation would mean that
09:23 we've got early rain clearing the southeast a fine interlude for much of the day on bank holiday
09:28 Monday before the low to the north arrives and continues that theme of sunny spells and showers
09:35 or perhaps longer spells of rain towards the northwest of the UK and a cool airflow that's
09:41 what the Met Office computer model run shows and here's a different way of showing that this is
09:46 midnight on Monday night a number of lines here blue and reds showing cold fronts and warm fronts
09:52 and so on this is the pressure pattern here's the UK just about make it out hopefully and there's
09:57 the low to the northwest of the UK but if we look at the same time frame and the European model
10:04 well what that does is it picks up actually this is the next day with the Met Office model I beg
10:11 your pardon and it's showing a similar thing cool and showery northwest to the airflow low pressure
10:16 by this stage moving into the North Sea Emily the ex-tropical storm nowhere to be seen but if we go
10:22 back to the end of bank holiday Monday and the European model well that focuses its energies on
10:27 deepening ex-tropical storm Emily into a typical mid-latitude area of low pressure not a tropical
10:33 storm at this stage and that's heading towards the UK but before that arrives it throws up a
10:38 ridge of high pressures that would lead to a mostly fine day on Monday after any early rain
10:43 clears from the southeast but watch what happens by Tuesday that low pressure heads towards southern
10:51 and southwestern parts of the UK to bring some unsettled weather here some longer spells of rain
10:56 and so on and then that low just hangs around across southern parts of the UK throughout much
11:02 of next week this is next Thursday drier towards the north so the Met Office model and the European
11:09 model are disagreeing in terms of which of those lows is the one that's going to deepen and that's
11:15 all to do with the different streams of the jet stream and of course developments in the tropical
11:19 Atlantic over the next couple of days and we don't just look at one run of the Met Office
11:24 or the European models we run those models many, many times and it's useful to look at
11:30 the most likely scenario that's coming out of for example the European ensemble for next week and
11:36 this is running the model 50 times and it's showing the most likely low pressure scenario
11:42 for the middle of next week it's actually got low pressure further north and that's because
11:46 although the main run of the European model has low pressure to the south
11:50 many others have it further north. So when we're faced with so much uncertainty
11:56 what exactly do we do? We look at common themes, we look at things that all the models agree with
12:02 and what they're all agreeing with for next week is low pressure will be centered over or close to
12:08 the UK it's going to be unsettled there'll be spells of rain or showers and it's also going
12:13 to be cooler than average they can all agree on that. It's just a bit of a disagreement right at
12:19 the moment in terms of whether it's low pressure just over the south or low pressure over the north
12:24 of the UK those are the things that we've got to iron out over the next couple of days. Either way
12:29 they all start to agree a bit more by the start of September because that ex-tropical storm either
12:34 way moves out of the way and then they're all suggesting that low pressure will become increasingly
12:39 towards the north of the UK to bring a mixture of sunny spells or longer spells of rain to the
12:44 northwest, drier conditions to the south and this trend continues for the first few days of September.
12:52 This is the most likely scenario for the 3rd of September for example that's a Sunday
12:57 higher pressure building into southern areas staying changeable in the north. So yes some
13:02 uncertainties mainly centered around how these ex-tropical storms will behave in the next few
13:07 days but it looks likely that a cool and changeable weather pattern prevails through next week before
13:12 some more settled weather in the south for the start of September. Bye.