00:00Is Donald Trump now resorting to brinkmanship once again?
00:03Is this brinkmanship Trump-style claiming that the deal is over with Iran?
00:08Are Donald Trump and Iran in a stare-down even as negotiations continue?
00:13Will the West Asia ceasefire hold or is it the end of the ceasefire?
00:19Joining me now to get perspectives from both Tehran and the United States,
00:25Daniel Block, Senior Editor, Foreign Affairs.
00:27Joining me from New York, Syed Mustafa Kohashem is Iranian political analyst and academic.
00:33Joins me from Tehran. I appreciate both of you joining us.
00:37Daniel, how are we to interpret what we've just heard from Donald Trump?
00:40He claims, and I'm quoting him here,
00:43Ceasefire deal with Iran is over. Dealing with Iran is a waste of time.
00:48Even goes along to call the Iranians scum.
00:51Do you really believe? Should we take Donald Trump seriously here or not?
00:58I'd say two things.
00:59The first is that it's almost always a mistake to take Donald Trump at his word.
01:04And so this may be the end of the ceasefire and we may be about to resume continuous high-scale
01:13combat. But it may not be.
01:16It may be, as you said, him engaging in a little bit of brinksmanship in hopes of
01:21renegotiating the terms of the deal that are more favorable.
01:24But in some ways, when I look at this, what I really see is continuity of what we've been
01:29experiencing between the United States and Iran since the first ceasefire deal that they struck in
01:34April, which is that Israel and the United States are no longer bombarding Iran with the
01:40same degree of intensity that they were before.
01:42Iran is not retaliating against Israeli U.S.
01:45and Arab targets with the same degree of intensity.
01:49But you do see this periodic thing going on where the two sides are striking each other from
01:55time to time. They are threatening one another.
01:58You have Donald Trump saying stuff like this.
02:01So it seems like what to me this indicates is we're still kind of stuck in this phase of
02:06low-intensity combat with some negotiations going on.
02:10So how should we interpret this, that when Donald Trump says we're going to strike Iran
02:16tonight, we may even take over Khark Island, is that bluster?
02:19Because that spooked the markets in India and in several parts of the world.
02:23Many fear that if Donald Trump goes ahead with its threats, we could be back into a real
02:28serious conflict situation again.
02:30Is this, as I said again, brinkmanship in your view?
02:33Should we take each statement that Donald Trump makes at face value?
02:38It's really hard to say definitively whether it is pure bluster coming from him or whether
02:45these threats are serious.
02:46You know, on the one hand, he has been threatening to take Khark Island since this conflict began
02:52at the end of February, and he hasn't done it yet.
02:55And it would be an enormous military undertaking to take it and then to hold it for the United
03:00States.
03:00So there's reasons to think that that won't happen, because Trump is actually fairly casualty
03:05averse.
03:06On the other hand, especially the bit about striking Iran again tonight, you can never
03:11count out that Trump is going to do something dramatic or drastic, even if it's going to
03:17spook the markets as it has in the United States, as it has in Israel.
03:22It's kind of a tension between the saying that many people have in the United States and I
03:26assume elsewhere in the world, taco, where Trump always chickens out, the idea that Trump
03:30threatens something dramatic and then doesn't actually follow through on it, which we've seen
03:34time and time again.
03:35And the fact that sometimes he does, sometimes he does do something like start a war with
03:40Iran, even though it's going to send gas prices skyrocketing.
03:44So I'm sorry that I don't have a more definitive answer to you of what to make of it.
03:48If I were betting, I would bet that the United States is not going to take Khark Island in
03:54the next week, although we may strike them again.
03:56We, not me.
03:58Washington may strike them again tonight.
04:00I can understand, Daniel, why you don't have a definitive answer, because no one knows what's
04:05going on in Donald Trump's mind apart from Donald Trump himself.
04:09I mean, the unpredictability, the uncertainty has been clearly weaponized by Donald Trump.
04:14There are those who've even suggested that this is making markets move, and thereby there is an
04:20ulterior motive in all of this.
04:22But is your sense, therefore, that the United States cannot risk going back to war?
04:27That's ruled out almost.
04:29Even if there are strikes on both sides, a full-blown war of the kind we saw in late
04:34February, March, is extremely unlikely.
04:38I think that's certainly the main factor mitigating against it.
04:42And I think everything you said is right, and I'll take it one step further, which is that
04:46Trump has his mind on the upcoming midterm elections.
04:49And he does not want Republicans to lose control of Congress, and he is aware that the war pushed
04:56his approval ratings down because it led to inflation, particularly when it came to energy
05:01prices, and it caused the markets to experience a great deal of turbulence.
05:06So again, yeah, I think that's right.
05:09I think that the odds of a return to full-scale war between Iran and the United States are unlikely
05:14for exactly the reasons you outlined.
05:17That said, they are far from impossible.
05:19Trump can also be quite impulsive.
05:21He can obviously be quite petulant.
05:24So his instinct, I think, to avoid a return to war because he doesn't want the economic
05:29consequences, he doesn't want the political consequences that would follow from those economic
05:34consequences, could be counteracted by just raw frustration with the Iranians, a desire
05:39to appear strong, and a desire to get a better deal.
05:43Because he went into this war with so little thought.
05:46I mean, it was such a careless introduction to combat that he's now stuck in a really difficult
05:52political situation for himself.
05:54And I think he doesn't know how to get out of it because there is no good way for him
05:58to get out of it.
05:59Yeah, because he's, you know, my final question, the fear, of course, is sometimes the rhetoric
06:04can spiral out of control.
06:06And we've seen that happen in the past.
06:08It's one thing that if it is rhetoric, but the fear, of course, is that it can spiral
06:12at times out of control, given the fragile situation on the ground.
06:16What you're saying very clearly is given that Trump has one eye on those midterm elections
06:21in November, he cannot afford, presumably, a war-like situation that spirals out of control.
06:28He would ideally like a quick ceasefire to hold and a quick negotiated settlement.
06:36Am I right?
06:38You're absolutely right.
06:39And I think Trump went into this in part inspired by and thinking about what happened
06:45in Venezuela, where the United States wanted to get rid of Maduro.
06:49And it did fairly quickly.
06:51It seemed to have some sort of agreement in advance with Maduro's vice president, Delcy
06:56Rodriguez.
06:57And it was able to go in to do a special operation that took Maduro out and then kind of
07:03install
07:04or have Delcy take control and negotiate with her.
07:07I don't know.
07:08Well, actually, I do know why.
07:09The Trump administration has hollowed itself of expertise.
07:12So there wasn't really anybody there in the government, in the White House, who could
07:16tell him that's not how it's going to work in Iran.
07:18Iran is a larger, stronger, more complicated country than Venezuela is.
07:24The regime there is far more deeply entrenched.
07:27So the idea that you're going to be able to waltz in and conduct a quick, easy victory
07:32there is completely fantastical.
07:35Nobody was there to tell him that.
07:37That's what he expected.
07:38He thinks that he can solve every problem very easily and very quickly, either through
07:42military force or through his sheer supposed negotiating brilliance.
07:46And that's obviously, very obviously not going to be what's happening or what's going to
07:52happen in Iran.
07:53It's not what's happening now.
07:54And so he's trapped in a situation of his own making.
07:57He's deeply frustrated, but he still has an eye, I think, to those midterms.
08:01OK.
08:01I just want to get one quick Iranian viewpoint.
08:04Mustafa has now joined us from Tehran.
08:06The line is fluctuating with him.
08:09Mustafa, the Americans are upping the ante against Iran, raising the rhetoric, raising the pitch.
08:15What's the sense where you are?
08:17Do you believe that the Americans are trying to scare Iran?
08:21Will Iran be scared at a time when, of course, the funeral preparation, the funeral ceremonies
08:27are still on for the late Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?
08:32What's the mood in Tehran at the moment when you hear the kind of comments coming in from
08:36Washington?
08:38Thanks for having me.
08:40Well, in Iran, millions of people who took part in the funeral procession, as well as
08:46many others, they now believe that there should be revenge from Donald Trump, his companions
08:55and accomplices in this crime.
08:58Campaign by the public has been launched to bring Donald Trump to justice, as well as his
09:07companions.
09:08But on a wider scale, here, everyone's prepared to provide a powerful response to the American
09:18violation of the deal.
09:19As a matter of fact, they never showed respect for the MOU.
09:24You know, the MOU has two parts.
09:26Phase one includes five prerequisites, confidence-building measures that include releasing Iran's
09:32frozen assets, which never happened, giving Iran oil exports exemption, which was taken
09:38back by the Americans last night, and also withdrawal of the Israeli army from Lebanon.
09:45That never happened, and they still continue attacks.
09:49And also, another point, which is very much important, is that in return, Iran would open
09:59the strait under Iranian protocols and unique authority.
10:03And this never happened, because as soon as Iran started opening up the corridor, the Americans,
10:10in violation of the deal, went for opening up the Oman corridor, which was a violation
10:16of the terms and the contents of the deal.
10:19The deal has phase two.
10:20It says once these five measures are complete, then negotiation is the start for a final deal.
10:29In that final deal, the Iranian nuclear issue should be wrapped up, all sanctions should be
10:33removed, and a joint mechanism between Iran and Oman should be worked out for the future
10:39of this trade or for most.
10:40But that will appear in a final agreement, if ever.
10:45Because now we are still in phase one, this is a genuine violation of the deal that has
10:51been on the way by the United States.
10:53So, Donald Trump said that the deal is now gone with the winds, that he doesn't care about.
11:00No, no, does Iran, no, no, Mr. Mustafa, does Iran also believe that the deal is over?
11:05Therefore, is Iran also preparing for a return to the conflict?
11:09Or do you believe that there is still hope?
11:12No, I don't think there is any kind of hope.
11:16You know, Donald Trump might be doing this in order to represent a credible threat to enjoy,
11:22you know, an upper hand in the negotiations.
11:27But in essence, on the ground, he is attacking our radars, our people, our shipping vessels.
11:36I'm sorry, our shipping vessels.
11:40He has killed Iranians, military and civilians, and they've been bombing Iranian missile and
11:48drone facilities and airports.
11:51So, there has never been a deal.
11:54There was just an MOU, which was violated by the United States.
11:59There is a major difference between an EU and a deal.
12:03No, so are you saying?
12:04By the United States.
12:06So, does Iran believe it's back at war?
12:08Does Iran believe it's back at war, given what's happened in the last 24 hours?
12:14Yeah, Iran has issued an ultimatum, as a matter of fact, that if tonight, as Trump has vowed to
12:21launch a crushing and devastating attack on Iranian facilities, if this happens, then war will be
12:29resumed.
12:30The strait of foremost will be shut down completely.
12:34Right now, the strait, you know, is nearly shut down, almost shut down, but not completely.
12:41But I believe this is going to be the case.
12:44Even if not tomorrow, it will happen next week or a few weeks from now, because Donald Trump
12:49is not willing for any kind of peace, because he failed in reopening the strait of foremost
12:56during the war.
12:57Now, he intends to do so under a ceasefire, and Tehran will not give Donald Trump a chance
13:04to misuse the ceasefire conditions to attain its strategic goals.
13:09So, I believe escalation is underway.
13:14You're saying escalation is underway.
13:16So, very, very worrying from the Tehran perspective.
13:19Daniel Block, a little bit more hopeful that maybe there is a bit of bluster, or maybe there's
13:24brinkmanship, but with Donald Trump, you never know.
13:27As I said, he's weaponized uncertainty in the world.
13:30I appreciate both my guests joining me there from Tehran and New York.
13:35Thank you both very much.
13:36Okay.
