- 12 minutes ago
On this special edition of Battle Cry, host Gaurav Sawant leads a debate on India's defence modernisation strategy, weighing investments in expensive legacy platforms against scalable mass production of unmanned combat aerial vehicles, missiles, and rockets
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00:00Hello and welcome to a special edition of Battlecry. I'm Gaurav Savant.
00:04There is this raging debate these days within the strategic community
00:08about drawing lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war, the US-Iran war and Operation Sindhur
00:14regarding investment in expensive legacy platforms.
00:18For example, the 114 Rafale fighter jets or a third aircraft carrier
00:23vis-a-vis investment in domestic, inexpensive, scalable, mass production
00:29of unmanned combat aerial vehicles or drones, missiles and rockets.
00:35We'll talk about that in greater detail.
00:37But I want to begin Battlecry with this spectacular video of the maiden landing
00:42of the Rafale marine fighter jet on board India's indigenous aircraft carrier INS Vikran.
00:49The Navy in a statement has said that these ongoing trials mark the first step
00:55towards operationalization of the Rafale aircraft in the Indian Navy.
00:59The Indian Navy has ordered 26 Rafale marine fighter jets under an IGA
01:04or an intergovernmental agreement signed with France.
01:08And these aircraft are being procured at a cost of approximately 64,000 crore rupees.
01:15Now, these include 22 single-seat Rafale marine combat variants
01:20and four twin-seat Rafale trainer variant.
01:23So, as we stay with these spectacular visuals, I also want to talk about the Indian Navy.
01:29For example, it has two aircraft carrier strike groups, INS Vikramaditya,
01:34which is a modified Kiev-class aircraft carrier of Russian origin, Admiral Gorshkov.
01:39And, of course, the made-in-India, INS Vikrant.
01:4345,000-ton displacement, more than 30 fighter jets and helicopters on board.
01:49The Indian Navy is very keen on a third aircraft carrier strike group
01:53to stretch our sea legs, given India's vast area of responsibility
01:57from the North Arabian Sea to the Malacca Straits and the Gulf of Aden.
02:02But analysts now argue, can India achieve the same goal
02:07with additional mid-air refuelers and fighter jets strategically located
02:11and more unmanned combat aerial vehicles?
02:14Technology is changing. Warfare is changing.
02:17The Indian Air Force, the squadron strength is fast depleting.
02:22It's now down to an alarming approximately 30 squadrons
02:26as against a sanctioned strength of 42.5 squadrons.
02:30But then, do we need these very expensive legacy platforms
02:34like 114 Rafale fighter jets,
02:36again, approximately at a cost of 3.25 lakh crore rupees,
02:41or can changing technology and changing nature of warfare
02:45ensure that India can make do?
02:47With larger number of mass-produced unmanned combat aerial vehicles,
02:52unmanned aerial vehicles, missiles, and rockets.
02:55What are lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war,
02:58given the fact that Ukraine, with no navy,
03:01sank the Russian Black Sea fleet, flagship, Moskova.
03:06With virtually no air force, it's been hitting deep inside Russia,
03:09including Moscow, in the line of fire.
03:12Similarly, Iran. Iran has virtually no navy, no air force.
03:17The United States has 11 aircraft carrier strike groups,
03:20three in these waters at one point of time.
03:23And yet, the U.S. was on the defensive.
03:27U.S. bases across West Asian region have been in the line
03:30of Iranian drone, missile, and rocket fire.
03:33So, let's debate this.
03:35We have domain experts joining us on this special broadcast.
03:39Air Marshal Sanjeev Kapoor is a geopolitical and strategic affairs analyst.
03:43He joins us on the show.
03:44Captain D.K. Sharma, former spokesperson of the Indian Navy.
03:47He was also heading a squadron of remotely piloted aircraft in the Indian Navy.
03:55And he's one of the pioneers of that project, of the pilotless target aircraft.
04:00And, of course, senior journalist Sandeep Unnithan joining me on this broadcast.
04:03And, Sandeep, set the stage for us.
04:05Big debate over expensive legacy platform procurement.
04:08We have two hostile neighbors to the north and the west,
04:11both arming rapidly, including with fifth-generation fighter jets,
04:15the current scenario, and in the immediate future.
04:18Do we need to invest more in rockets, missiles, and drones
04:22to debtor China from attacking us?
04:24Or do we actually need 114 Rafale fighter jets?
04:29Well, Gaurav, you definitely need a drone, rocket, and missile force.
04:33There's no two ways about that.
04:35There is no way you can generate the kind of combat mass
04:38in a short period of time than you would, you know,
04:42than you wouldn't without a drone, rocket, and missile force.
04:46And we've seen that in the Russia-Ukraine war, in the Iran-U.S. war.
04:50Now, these wars are not identical.
04:52But there's a lot of technology that's very similar to both of them,
04:57which India can imbibe.
04:59We've seen the kind of non-contact kinetic warfare
05:02that India has fought during the 88-hour Operation Sindhur.
05:05There are lessons to be drawn from that.
05:07The next conflict might not be an Operation Sindhur, Gaurav.
05:11But then you have to look at the kind of capabilities that we need.
05:14For instance, if you want to target China over the Tibetan plateau,
05:18the vast expanse of the Tibetan plateau,
05:20we don't have the aircraft to do that.
05:21That these can only be done by drones, by rockets, by missiles of the kind
05:25that this futuristic rocket force will provide us.
05:29Pakistan is not so much of a threat.
05:31We have the capabilities to tackle Pakistan on the Western Front.
05:35It's the Northern Front that we have to worry about.
05:37And the questions that you have to ask is,
05:39will even these 114 Rafales that are coming in,
05:42will they be sufficient to deter the Chinese?
05:44And for that, you will need far more than just 114 aircraft.
05:48You will need, you know, enormous investments in drones, rockets, missiles.
05:54You need that Sudarshan chakra that the Prime Minister spoke of.
05:57You need what is called magazine depth, Gaurav.
05:59Not just the ability to field these drones,
06:01but to become a true drone power,
06:04you need to have a huge industrial capacity to produce them
06:07on a scale that Iran, Ukraine, and even the Russian Federation are producing.
06:13Do we have the money for it all?
06:16You know, we have to make our own fifth generation fighter jet.
06:19What do we invest in?
06:21More drones, rockets, missiles to deter the enemy?
06:23Because neither Iran nor Ukraine have an air force to speak of,
06:27or fighter jets to speak of.
06:29And yet, both of them had two of the biggest superpowers on the back foot
06:33with their drones, rockets, and missiles.
06:35So what should India be focusing on in the immediate future?
06:39Making our own fifth generation fighter jet,
06:42and in the interim, banking on drone, rocket, and missiles
06:44to deter the adversary,
06:45or going for a couple of squadrons of Su-57s or some aircraft,
06:49or just look within?
06:52Say, good evening, Gaurav, and to your viewers and fellow panelists.
06:56The Chinese are producing about one crore drones per annum.
07:02Chinese.
07:03They have a huge stockpile of missiles,
07:06but yet they are producing the fifth and the sixth generation fighters
07:12at a very massive pace.
07:14So this, in short, I would like to give this example to answer your question.
07:20The Chinese have done studies.
07:22It's not expensive or, you know, cheap.
07:26It is a mix of high and low capability.
07:30If you see, it's a mix,
07:32because when this Epicurei began on 20th February 26,
07:38it was led by F-22s and F-35s,
07:43their tip of the sphere,
07:44and they entered the sphere.
07:46So now, you need something,
07:48the airspace for the drones to operate.
07:51Who will create that airspace?
07:53Who will open up that airspace for you?
07:55This is the, these fighters.
07:58Now, the question and the debate is,
08:00should we buy 114 Rafales?
08:02For that, I have done a couple of programs with you,
08:04in the same panel,
08:06where we have found the weakest link as HL,
08:11not able to produce Tejas Mark I alphas on time.
08:14The, the deficiencies are increasing.
08:18The integration of the AESA and the other radar equipments
08:23and EW suits has not taken place.
08:26Hence, these aircrafts are not.
08:28Compounded with it is the delivery of the engines.
08:34So, all mixed together, today we have reached.
08:36Now, the, the techno-commercial bid,
08:40which Daso gave in August 2026,
08:43is still being looked at.
08:45So, we are looking at a huge timeline.
08:48There is nothing on the horizon.
08:49On the horizon, the 26 Rafales,
08:52the one which you just showed,
08:54did the trial landing.
08:55So, in a simple statement,
08:57by 2032, India will have 62 Rafales.
09:00Yes, 36 plus 26, that we are coming.
09:03Yes.
09:04So, that is okay.
09:06But, there is a sense in not, you know,
09:09having different, diverse fleets at this stage.
09:14So, as and when 114, if it gets signed,
09:17and if the delivery begins,
09:18and they get inducted,
09:19we are looking at 2033 to 2034,
09:23in my acquisition,
09:25at the earliest,
09:26before the last aircraft arrives.
09:29So, it is an alarming situation,
09:30you say, right now,
09:32and it's not an either-or situation.
09:34We will have to go in for both,
09:35is what you seem to indicate that.
09:37Captain Sharma,
09:38you've operated the,
09:40the pilotless target aircraft.
09:43You're one of the pioneers.
09:44With technology changing so rapidly,
09:47can a developing country like India
09:49afford to spend, for example,
09:513.25 lakh crore rupees,
09:53on a 4.5 generation fighter jet,
09:55when the adversary is already,
09:58you know,
09:58one adversary is talking about induction
10:00of fifth generation fighter jet,
10:01the other is already inducting,
10:03at a very fast pace,
10:06the fifth generation fighter jets,
10:07and two of them,
10:08you know,
10:09as far as China is concerned.
10:12You see,
10:14what Sir is saying,
10:15Air Marshal Sanjeev Kapoor is saying,
10:19is absolutely right.
10:20I would say you can't,
10:21and also Sandeep is saying,
10:22these things cannot be traded off
10:25one for another.
10:26Everything is required.
10:27Somebody will have to make the airspace.
10:29Then probably the drones will come.
10:32Then the pilotless target aircraft will come.
10:34But if you say that
10:36only we invest in this part,
10:38and leave apart that part,
10:40it is just not possible.
10:41And you've seen,
10:42for suppression of enemy air defenses,
10:45you will need the fighters first,
10:46to make space.
10:48And then goes the attack,
10:50whether it is the swarm drones,
10:52or the loitering munitions,
10:54you say,
10:55anything,
10:56you know,
10:56whatever is coming up,
10:57and as Sir is saying,
10:59that if they are making one-crowed drones,
11:01they will be having some kind of a system
11:04in this madness,
11:05that how to make space
11:07for all these things
11:08to be deployed first,
11:10to be effectively,
11:12you know,
11:12what will be the measure of effectiveness.
11:14And if this kind of investment
11:16is going into it,
11:18there will be a balanced mix.
11:20This is what I think.
11:21And,
11:22you know,
11:23what he is saying,
11:24yes,
11:24HAL will have to,
11:27you know,
11:27pull up their socks,
11:28and match up with the speed
11:29with which things are happening.
11:31Okay.
11:31HAL will have to pull up their socks.
11:33But Sandeep,
11:34right now,
11:35a hard decision
11:36has to be made.
11:37It's not about turf,
11:39it's not letting down
11:40one force was vis-a-vis
11:41the other force.
11:42It's what the nation can afford.
11:44Or is there merit
11:46that more than 90 of these Rafals
11:49or 90 of 114
11:50are to be assembled in India?
11:52So there will be a technical know-how
11:54that will benefit us ultimately
11:56in the manufacturing
11:58of our own aircraft.
11:59It is a win-win.
12:01You need to buy now
12:02and build on your own later
12:04because that's the only way,
12:06one,
12:06you make up for shortages,
12:07and two,
12:08gain technical expertise
12:10that we desperately need.
12:12Well, absolutely, Gaurav.
12:13And you know,
12:13the thing is that the Air Force
12:14has done the math,
12:15you know,
12:15as Air Marshal Kapoor was saying,
12:17that there is no way
12:18you can arrest this decline
12:19in squadron numbers.
12:21And HAL is clearly
12:22not going to be able
12:22to produce those many numbers.
12:24So they're looking at
12:25two parallel production lines,
12:27one that will bring in
12:28the Rafals
12:28and another that will get
12:29the LCA Mark 1 Alpha
12:32and beyond that,
12:33the Mark 2.
12:34But you know,
12:34to complement all of this,
12:36you will need to
12:37induct drones at scale.
12:39And we are doing that,
12:41Gaurav,
12:41right now.
12:42In fact,
12:42I just did something
12:43for India Today online
12:45where I've looked at
12:46the drone procurements,
12:47something like
12:4810 to 15 billion dollars
12:50worth of drones
12:50being bought,
12:51but by all the three services
12:53individually,
12:54in penny packets,
12:55small numbers,
12:56you know,
12:56500 year,
12:57100 there,
12:57200 there.
12:59Rather than having
12:59a huge production line
13:01that is,
13:02you know,
13:02going to churn out
13:03these drones at scale
13:04and then will allow you
13:05to indigenize
13:06a lot of those components,
13:07we are buying them
13:07in small penny packets
13:08and the most important thing
13:09is you don't have
13:11an overall architecture
13:12to ensure that these drones
13:14are brought under
13:15one command and control system.
13:17You don't have
13:18the kind of satellite links,
13:19you don't have interoperability.
13:21Now,
13:21the famous thing was
13:22in the past,
13:23Gaurav,
13:23all three services
13:24went and bought
13:25the same model
13:25of Israeli drones
13:26and neither of them
13:28were interoperable.
13:29A naval drone
13:30could not,
13:31for instance,
13:31control an air force,
13:32a naval ground station
13:34could not control
13:35an air force drone
13:36of the same make.
13:38You know,
13:38things like that,
13:39this is what we are doing
13:41right now.
13:41We are doing a lot
13:42of purchases,
13:43we are stockpiling drones
13:44but we are not building
13:45the deep industrial capabilities,
13:48we are not building
13:49the command and control system.
13:49Why isn't that happening,
13:50M.A.S.H.I.L. Kapoor?
13:51I mean,
13:51it defies logic,
13:53whether it was
13:53the Kargil war
13:54and lessons learned
13:55from Kargil war,
13:56you know,
13:57when the integrated command
13:58came up,
13:59procurement was centralized
14:01that all forces
14:03will work on procurement
14:06and, for example,
14:07the Apache helicopters,
14:09the air force
14:09bought them
14:09at a different rate,
14:10army bought them
14:11at a different rate,
14:12at different times
14:13could have negotiated
14:14better and closer
14:14a bigger deal for both.
14:16Why don't we seem
14:17to be learning our lessons?
14:19Sandeep says,
14:20even with drones,
14:21air force buys
14:22different ones,
14:23different rates,
14:23army buys different ones,
14:25different rates.
14:25We don't seem to be
14:26coming together
14:27as an armed forces.
14:32Gaurav,
14:32it is very easy
14:34to say.
14:35Firstly,
14:36we should understand
14:37how our
14:38defence procurement
14:39happens.
14:40People who are
14:41sitting and
14:42analysing
14:43and giving decisions
14:44have no idea,
14:46absolutely no idea
14:48about any hardware,
14:50any equipment.
14:51None of them
14:52have worn a uniform.
14:53So,
14:54they're understanding
14:55the kind of questions
14:57that move on files
14:58a person
14:59who's not seen
14:59an aeroplane
15:00will write
15:00one and a half page
15:01onto why you need
15:03Su-57
15:04in place of so and so.
15:05So,
15:06that is the first
15:06background,
15:07that is the
15:07institutional knowledge.
15:09Second,
15:09with headquarter ideas
15:10coming up,
15:11this gap
15:12to a large extent
15:13is filled now
15:14that forms
15:15an interface
15:16between the
15:16service headquarters
15:17and because the
15:18capital procurement
15:19is still with the
15:20MOD.
15:21But now comes
15:22the issue of
15:23priorities,
15:24interest service
15:25priorities.
15:26Now,
15:27the debate
15:27which you began
15:28that Navy
15:29is looking at
15:29the third
15:30aircraft carrier.
15:31Now,
15:31as an army
15:32and an air force
15:33senior officer,
15:35my heart
15:36would be sinking
15:37because if the
15:38budget is allocated
15:39for that year
15:40or the next
15:41five years
15:42to the aircraft
15:43carriers,
15:43that leaves
15:44little for the
15:46other two services.
15:47It is the same
15:48for the air force
15:48also because
15:49these are big
15:50ticket purchases,
15:51114 rafair,
15:53which you said
15:533.25 lakhs
15:55crores I was
15:55reading,
15:56it has now
15:56been upscaled
15:57to 3.6 lakh
15:58crores.
15:59So just visualize
16:00the six points,
16:01though it will be
16:01paid over a period
16:02of time,
16:03but still to pull
16:04out 3.6 lakh
16:05crores.
16:06And similarly,
16:07if the aircraft
16:07carrier gets,
16:08so what happens
16:09is what the
16:10budget the
16:11government has
16:11given,
16:12there is no doubt
16:13that we need
16:13to increase
16:14the defense
16:15spending.
16:16You see,
16:17$1.5 trillion
16:18is Donald Trump's
16:20signature.
16:20He is bringing
16:21up 18 new
16:22factories in the
16:23United States
16:24of America
16:24because he's
16:26realized in this
16:26Iran war that
16:28the scaling of
16:29defense production,
16:30especially the
16:31expended ones,
16:32and especially
16:33the ones which
16:34can take on
16:35cheap drones,
16:36a 25,000,
16:3730,000 Shaheen
16:39dollar drone,
16:40you don't need
16:41a patriot.
16:42So now they're
16:43scaling it up
16:44and probably this
16:45period of ceasefire
16:47from April until
16:47now has been
16:49utilized to,
16:50you know,
16:50mass produce
16:51these things.
16:53So exactly
16:54coming to your
16:55answer is,
16:56and one aspect,
16:57you know,
16:57is the counter
16:58drone,
16:59the force
17:00multipliers.
17:01We are not
17:01talking about
17:02airborne early
17:03warning.
17:04We are not
17:04talking about
17:05air-to-air
17:05refuelers.
17:06We are not
17:07talking about
17:07AEWC air
17:09car.
17:09The ones which
17:10we have are
17:11little outdated.
17:12We need
17:13state-of-the-art
17:14with software-defined
17:15radios and
17:16integration,
17:16and we
17:18also need
17:18now the
17:19devices and
17:20equipment which
17:21can communicate
17:22directly with
17:22the satellites.
17:23Now,
17:23air force is
17:24launched.
17:24It's not
17:25communication
17:25satellite approved.
17:26It will be
17:27launched in a
17:28few months.
17:28No,
17:29but what I
17:29want to
17:29understand is,
17:30if Iran and
17:31Ukraine are
17:32able to operate
17:33without all of
17:33these and
17:34defend themselves,
17:35why is it
17:36that we require
17:36all of this
17:37when we have
17:37no offensive
17:38intentions,
17:40especially when
17:41you need the
17:42same money for
17:42the development
17:43of your country?
17:44But Captain
17:45Sharma,
17:45same,
17:47that question
17:47with the
17:47third aircraft
17:48carrier strike
17:49group?
17:49Look at the
17:50United States
17:50with 11
17:52aircraft carrier
17:52strike groups,
17:53three in the
17:54region,
17:55it was unable
17:55to project
17:56power over
17:57Iran and
17:57it had to
17:58duck out
17:58of the
17:58combat zone.
18:00Iran,
18:00with its
18:00underwater
18:01unmanned
18:01submarines and
18:02drones,
18:03was able to
18:04enforce sea
18:05denial even
18:06on the
18:06biggest navy
18:07in the
18:07world.
18:08So,
18:08why do we
18:09need a
18:09third aircraft
18:09carrier?
18:11Gaurav,
18:11give me
18:12two minutes
18:12now.
18:13Uninterrupted
18:14two minutes.
18:14I will have
18:15to...
18:15make the
18:16background
18:17and tell
18:17you.
18:18You see,
18:19India got
18:19independence
18:20in 1947
18:21and in
18:221948,
18:23the Indian
18:24navy brought
18:24out very
18:25clearly in
18:26their plans
18:26that we
18:27need two
18:28carriers at
18:29least.
18:30It was
18:30actually three
18:31carriers,
18:32but we
18:32started with
18:33the paper
18:35which was put
18:35up in
18:351948,
18:37was for
18:38two carriers.
18:39and the
18:40first carrier
18:41was purchased
18:42in 1957,
18:44which was
18:45the HMS
18:45Hercules,
18:46which was
18:47still incomplete,
18:48a majestic
18:49class aircraft
18:50carrier,
18:50which was
18:51then towed
18:51away to
18:52Belfast,
18:53retrofitted
18:53and converted
18:54to our
18:55requirements.
18:56So,
18:56it was
18:56commissioned
18:56in 1961.
18:58Sir,
18:59that point
18:59seems...
19:00Sir,
19:00the limited
19:00time I
19:01have.
19:01Yes,
19:01we have
19:01Hercules
19:02and then we
19:02had Hermes,
19:03we had
19:03Vikrant and
19:04Virat,
19:04now we have
19:05Vikramaditya
19:05and Vikrant.
19:07Moving on,
19:08do we need
19:08a third?
19:09Yeah,
19:10now to
19:11maintain
19:11a potent
19:13force in
19:14Bay of
19:14Bengal,
19:15Indo-Pacific
19:16and Arabian
19:17Sea and
19:17this part of
19:18the Indian
19:18Ocean region,
19:19you need
19:20two aircraft
19:21carriers always
19:22on station.
19:22And to
19:23maintain two
19:24aircraft carriers,
19:25we need a
19:26third one so
19:27that one
19:28goes in for
19:28regular repairs.
19:30And let me
19:30tell you,
19:31Gaurav,
19:32once these
19:32aircraft carriers
19:33are put out
19:35to sea,
19:35they are
19:36very,
19:36very complex
19:37machineries and
19:38that is why
19:38they need a
19:39very dedicated
19:41maintenance
19:42period so
19:43that the
19:43machinery is
19:44reliable when
19:45they are put
19:46out to sea.
19:47Fair enough,
19:47but that
19:48other point,
19:48that other
19:49point,
19:50can't mid-air
19:51refuelers and
19:52faster fighter jets
19:53and UCAV
19:53Sandeep do
19:54exactly the
19:55same job that
19:56an aircraft
19:56carrier strike
19:57group may do?
19:58No,
19:58no,
19:59it cannot,
19:59it cannot,
20:00I'll tell you.
20:01When we are
20:01talking so much
20:02of air power,
20:03don't you think
20:04that this aircraft
20:05carrier which is
20:051000 miles into
20:07the sea with
20:08the Rafale
20:09Marines and
20:10the AVAX and
20:12the WORX is
20:13giving you the
20:14kind of air
20:15superiority,
20:16immediate air
20:17superiority in the
20:19region.
20:19That is sea
20:21control.
20:22So it is doing
20:23sea denial,
20:24it is doing sea
20:24control,
20:25it is doing
20:25power projections
20:27and you see
20:28PLA is coming
20:29up with six
20:30aircraft carriers,
20:31US Navy is
20:32with 11
20:33aircraft carriers,
20:34do you want
20:35to cede your
20:35space?
20:36If you don't
20:37have aircraft
20:37carriers,
20:38tomorrow they
20:39will be here,
20:40standing here in
20:41Indian Ocean
20:41and then we'll be
20:42in order.