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The Himalayas are facing a growing range of environmental and disaster risks, from avalanches and landslides to changing glaciers and water systems. What do these shared risks mean for communities and regional security, and can they drive greater cooperation between countries? Dr Ankit Pramanik and Dr David Potter from The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) weigh in.
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00:07Hello and welcome to Awani Global. I'm your host, Fahna Sheet.
00:11Now, a devastating disaster in Nepal has once again highlighted the growing risk facing communities across the Himalayas.
00:19Now, more than 1,300 people were killed in the floods triggered by a glacial collapse near the Nepal-Tibet
00:25border with 5,000 more missings.
00:28But as the region's environment changes, the implications go far beyond the disaster risks, raising questions about water, security and
00:36even regional cooperation.
00:38So joining me to discuss this are Ankit Pramanik and David Porter, both from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain
00:45Development, ISIMOT.
00:47Welcome to Awani Global, both of you.
00:50Right. I'm going to let Ankit start here first to get sort of the landscape of the Himalayas right now.
00:57Now, Ankit, if you don't mind explaining to us a little bit, Nepal has just experienced a devastating disaster along
01:05the Nepal-China border.
01:06Can you first help us understand what happened and what does this event tell us about what the kind of
01:12risk the communities that are facing?
01:15Sure.
01:17Sure.
01:17So, yes, on 26th of August, Nepal faced an unprecedented disaster.
01:23It was really, the scale was unimaginable and my heart goes to the affected in this disaster.
01:30So, it was caused due to the bedrock ice avalanche where a bedrock collapse which took some glacier with it
01:39and it fell from around 5,000 meter elevation drop by around 2,000 meter and that caused immense flash
01:49floods downstream.
01:50Now, so that led to this immense, that was the source of these disasters.
01:55Now, before going in further, I would like to also mention that there was another disaster happened in the same
02:00valley last year.
02:02Now, in this case, the nature of the source was different.
02:05It was, the earlier one was more glacier related, but this one was more ice rock, bedrock ice avalanche related.
02:13So, it shows that two back-to-back disasters in same place, but different in nature.
02:19So, this is a big of a concern.
02:21So, this tells a few things that we need to take the mountain landscape seriously.
02:25This landscape is evolving very rapidly.
02:29And also, you can see that the disaster can be geological in nature, but also could be climate induced as
02:35well.
02:35For example, in this case, we do not know there could be many things involved.
02:39So, this is something that is very new to us as well.
02:42And also, we need to understand that this landscape is changing rapidly.
02:49The risk that's already there.
02:51So, we need to have better monitoring and preparedness in place.
02:56Right.
02:57We're seeing, from what you mentioned, we're also seeing a combination of hazards in the mountains, right?
03:02So, ice and rock avalanche, glacial lake outburst floods, landslide, and also, you know, increasing the erratic rainfall.
03:10Are this sort of risk that you mentioned just now more interconnected now?
03:15And does that make the disaster harder to predict these days?
03:19So, yes, actually, we see these disasters are cascading in nature often.
03:26So, cascading disaster means one disaster starts and it triggers another disaster.
03:30For example, in this case, it started with a rock failure.
03:35And then there was some glacier on top of it, which also collapsed.
03:38And then that triggered a flash flood downstream.
03:41So, we often term it as more like a cascading disaster in nature.
03:45And we see that when this kind of things happen, yes, these are difficult to actually predict.
03:52And we see there are more and more this kind of events happening in this region.
03:59Now, what this specific event showed us that it is not enough to just predict the disaster.
04:05The scale in this time was immense.
04:08So, we don't only need to predict the disaster, but we also need to predict the scales.
04:13Now, also, I would like to show that makes things difficult.
04:18So, it makes the prediction a bit harder.
04:20And, yes, we are not at pace with the disasters taking place.
04:24But, however, I would also like to mention that there have been rapid advancement in satellite observations, in technological observations.
04:33So, although till today we are not able to keep up the pace with the disasters, but I am optimistic
04:37that if we put the forces, if we put the communities, the scientists, researchers together
04:42and leverage the technological advancement, I am confident that we will be able to forecast the next disaster.
04:51Right.
04:52Ankit, from your research and your studies, you know, from ISIMOD as well as, you know, your chiro spurs, so
04:59you look into this kind of region and this kind of, you know, changing landscape there.
05:03How much is the physical environment in the area is changing, you know, well from the past few years?
05:09What are you seeing in terms of glaciers, snow, permaforest, and the stability of the mountain landscape right now?
05:18So, in Himalaya, we have a substantial cover of cryosphere, that means cryosphere by cryosphere, I mean the glaciers, snow,
05:26and permafrost.
05:27And this cryosphere, snow, glaciers, permafrost, they are highly vulnerable to warming climate.
05:34And we know that the Himalaya is warming almost twice as faster than the global average.
05:40And as a result, glaciers are melting, snow cover have been changing rapidly, there are changes in snowfall pattern as
05:47well, and permafrosts are thawing.
05:50Now, while the glacier and snow changes are well documented and relatively well understood for this region,
05:57the permafrost is the one which is, specifically for Himalaya, is very poorly understood, actually.
06:04So, we have a lot of uncertainty and where we can find permafrost and what kind of disasters it could
06:10cause to us.
06:11So, glaciers retreat and melting that can lead to disasters such as glacier lake-related disasters,
06:17and where as permafrost can lead to disasters such as this, that ice, rock avalanche, or landslides, or this kind
06:25of things.
06:26So, all this shows that there are, as the temperature of the world and also the Himalaya is increasing,
06:34this system is very highly vulnerable, they are also experiencing rapid changes,
06:39and also it shows that it has been, these changes have been and will continue to affect the mountain stability
06:48in near future.
06:50Right. Ankit, if I may add, you know, the Himalayas is known as the water tower of Asia,
06:57and, you know, just by the amount of sort of mountains and ice that it holds,
07:03of course, we have to bring in water security into the discussion.
07:06So, how much of, you know, the stuff that you said affects water security,
07:10not just in the region, but also, I guess, nearby?
07:15Yeah, so, the glaciers are, yes, are vulnerable to, of course, changing climate,
07:21but the glaciers are also the source of water in many of these mountain rivers,
07:26where these rivers feed the millions to billions of people from upstream to downstream.
07:32So, as this, there are rapid temperature rise, these glaciers are melting, but also retreating.
07:37And as a result, first, immediately, because of their expansion,
07:41there will be expansion of glacial lakes, which was a disaster of glacial lake outburst flood.
07:47But also, if we look at the long term, as these glaciers shrink,
07:51the source from where these rivers are generating, that is shrinking.
07:54That means, in two, three decades from now, probably there will be less water flow in those rivers than today.
08:01So, that is going to severely affect the communities living downstream and their livelihoods as well.
08:09Now, so, we see the double, twofold threat here.
08:12One is disaster related to glacial lake outburst floods or so.
08:16And also, there is a concern for water security in the coming future, actually.
08:21So, and all this combined with increasing disaster frequency and the water scarcity,
08:27this will affect the infrastructure development, for example, hydropower project.
08:32And that will, in general, overall affect the livelihoods of the people and overall the development of this region.
08:40Right. I want to touch a little bit about, you know, the people living in the mountain communities here.
08:45Because you see the disaster alone, thousands of life lost and more missing.
08:51Like you said just now, infrastructure, you know, being built are destroyed.
08:56So, with this sort of changing environment, what does it mean in practical terms?
09:01Are we talking about probably more frequent disasters in the area, greater uncertainty around water or is it a larger
09:08impact than just this, right?
09:11Yes. So, as we experience the rapid warming, there will be rapid changes in the glacier and the permafrost.
09:19So, that may potentially lead to increase in hazards.
09:23And we have seen in the last couple of decades, there have been increase in number of hazards.
09:27And sometimes in the same region, like this one, actually.
09:31But we cannot completely say that all these are related to climate change or warming.
09:37Some could be geological in nature as well.
09:40And this is further investigation that we need to do to understand this process better.
09:44But overall, this is a threat and we see there is a rapid increase in this kind of disasters in
09:51this region in the last couple of decades.
09:53And it is likely to continue in this way, if not increased.
09:58Right. So, if you talk about, you know, preparation-wise, how prepared are countries in the region to face this
10:05kind of risk?
10:06You know, do they have, because we've seen the disaster unfold.
10:10And, you know, we talk about early monitoring system, we talk about satellite-based monitoring.
10:16Is there such a thing and is it sufficient or efficient enough to respond to this kind of risk, either
10:23now or in the near future?
10:26So, I'd say that the government, along with the international bodies and development banks,
10:31they have put immense effort in identifying their risk and also mitigating some of the risk.
10:37For example, this glacial lake lowering projects, flood warning warning systems, mapping potential hazards.
10:44These are the indication that government and international bodies, they understand the risk and they are trying their best to
10:52predict
10:53and also adapt to this kind of growing hazards in this region.
10:58For example, when it comes to glacier and glacier lake, they are relatively easy to predict because we know where
11:06these lakes are formed.
11:08So, we know the source area.
11:10But when it comes to recent disasters like landslide or ice bedrock avalanche,
11:15they are relatively difficult to predict because it is difficult to know where from this can happen.
11:21So, that puts the challenge, that will increase the challenge of identifying this disaster for sure.
11:29And in that regard, we can say that, yes, we are not, whatever effort has been put is probably not
11:36enough.
11:37We need to put more and more effort.
11:40And, yes, and we can see, look at the scale.
11:42That scale is also unprecedented.
11:43So, the loss and damage that has happened is really catastrophic and it's heartbreaking to see.
11:50But if we can, if I can try to look at at least one good side, that is how fast
11:56the community, the researchers came
11:58and tried to understand this disaster.
12:00We have seen many disasters in recent decades, but this is the one where communities really came up
12:07with rapid assessment of what happened.
12:09So, in that regard, I would like to say that this shows that if we want, we can.
12:15And if we combine these forces that came for these disasters and leverage the technological advancement
12:21in satellite monitoring observations and understanding the processes better and leverage those things,
12:29I'm optimistic that we may not be able to predict the very next disaster,
12:34but we will definitely be able to predict the one after that and the following ones.
12:40Right.
12:41So, we're looking at a region where environmental changes basically are creating risks that don't necessarily stay within one community
12:48and the impact is also very large and even within one country, right?
12:54And that bring us to the bigger question of how government respond.
12:57And I think, Ankit, your last message there about, you know, cooperation and attention that, you know,
13:03the global community sort of look into this one particular disaster is a nice segue to David here.
13:10David, please join us.
13:13When we look at this growing risk across the Hindu Kush Himalaya, how much should government now be treating this
13:20as an issue of regional security
13:22rather than simply an environmental or disaster management risk?
13:26Because we see the impacts and we see the rapid response.
13:29Is it something that you see changing, this kind of mindset and narrative that we're looking at right now?
13:35Yeah, thanks, Farhana.
13:37I think we've got to remember here that the Hindu Kush Himalaya provides,
13:42and Ankit was talking about water security earlier, but also food security and energy security,
13:47because the mountains provide resources for something like 1.9 billion people.
13:53And there are seven major rivers that flow out of the mountains.
13:56So, we're not just talking about the actual mountains themselves,
14:00although 240 million people live and have livelihoods that are directly connected to the mountain areas themselves.
14:08So, I think what we're looking at here is a growing awareness that this is a regional environmental challenge.
14:15And it is, I think, government is still focused on the environmental impacts here.
14:22But the example of the flood that we had, the terrible flood last month,
14:27is a really good example of why these things can't be seen and looked at as in silos.
14:33That event crossed between China and Nepal, impacted two countries.
14:39But the broader challenges, some of the science of which Ankit described just now,
14:45the challenges of climate change, increasing warming,
14:49and the changing nature of the risks and the pattern of risks that we see in the mountains,
14:54I think is something that means countries do need to think of this as a regional issue,
14:58and it is a regional environmental issue.
15:01Right. So, it's a regional issue.
15:05At the same time, the impacts are also far-reaching across countries.
15:08And you also mentioned the fact that, you know, the Hindu-Kushmalaya region is an abundant of resources,
15:14be it water, food.
15:16But many of the regions, rivers, mountain system, and disasters cross national borders,
15:21and with particular countries like Nepal, India, China, Bhutan, and Pakistan,
15:25they don't always have straightforward political relationships.
15:28So, if we talk about regional cooperation here, does a changing environmental tensions like this
15:35make regional cooperation more urgent, or does it risk adding sort of a layer of tension
15:40into, you know, finding a solution and making sure that, you know,
15:44these kind of disasters don't happen again?
15:46Yeah, thanks, Mahana.
15:47And I think what I'm seeing is the scale and just the genuine hugeness of this event,
15:57which is, which, if you go back two months, for example,
16:01people, I think, would have been hard-pressed to imagine something as massive and impactful as this event,
16:07has really made people realise, countries realise, that to respond to these,
16:13they do have to cooperate, and that cooperation is absolutely essential.
16:17There's no way that we can have the most efficient response to the increasing disaster risk
16:24in the Himalayas without increasing cooperation between countries.
16:30And actually, Isimod, who represents the eight countries, the whole territory,
16:35the Hindu Kush Himalayas, one of our core tenants is to provide a neutral platform
16:40to support those countries to come together and to find a way to cooperate with each other.
16:47And I also think when you look at these kinds of risks and these kinds of disasters,
16:52all countries agree on the problem that they're facing.
17:00You know, this is a problem that transcends boundaries.
17:03And as you mentioned, the events themselves transcend boundaries,
17:06but also the interpretation of what the problem is.
17:10And I think that is another really important factor in encouraging cooperation
17:15and supporting what we already see as emerging cooperative practices.
17:21There's another example, a recent disaster that I'll refer to,
17:26which is the earthquake in Nepal in 2015.
17:29That was another enormous, challenging disaster.
17:34And what we saw, because we've had time to look at how the response worked to that earthquake,
17:40actually, there was very good support provided by the country surrounding Nepal
17:45so that it could manage that risk and respond to it.
17:48So I think there's space for optimism there,
17:52despite the rather grim event that we saw last month.
17:57Right. I'm going to nitpick a little bit here,
18:00because we often talk about cooperation in very general terms, right?
18:05But what does meaningful cooperation actually look like?
18:08Now, we're talking about a region with resources or rivers that are shared across countries.
18:14Who owns what? Who does what?
18:17All of that needs to be ironed out for cooperation to actually exist.
18:21So how, what would you like to see sort of countries doing together?
18:26Because obviously responses are rapid.
18:29But when it comes to early preparedness, you know, we've seen the impacts.
18:33It seems that early preparedness is not really something that is being completely looked at just yet.
18:40Right. So what does meaningful cooperation actually look like with all these challenges?
18:46Right. Is it data sharing? Is it early warning system?
18:48Is it even with, you know, all this geopolitical relationship that are quite difficult to manage?
18:55Do you mind elaborating a little bit?
18:58Sure. No. And I think really good question.
19:00And you're right. What in detail? What exactly could this look like?
19:06I mean, I think one thing to bear in mind is that the countries in the Himalayas are at different
19:10stages
19:11in terms of their response development to the disasters and the kinds of impacts we're seeing in the mountains.
19:19And I think, firstly, that there's a huge amount of scope there for the countries to learn from each other.
19:26So peer to peer learning and the understanding of what a best practice response is.
19:31I mean, Ankit mentioned the interest.
19:33There's a difference, of course, between GLOFs, the glacial lake outburst floods and rock ice avalanches
19:39that we saw last month, not only in the nature of the of the challenge, but also in the way
19:46in the ease
19:47that our current systems have to identify these and provide a response early enough.
19:53I think for Ankit's, you know, event after the next event, we would want to see really good cooperative
20:02and trusting sharing between countries in the region so that everyone is aware of best practice
20:09and all countries are able to learn from each other's mistakes in the past, let's say,
20:15or the gaps in their existing processes.
20:18I think monitoring of glaciers, having a system that's able to really accurately monitor those hotspot areas
20:29where the biggest potential risk lies, that's absolutely possible to do with existing geo-observation science
20:37and in many places is already happening.
20:39I think combining that with really effective early warning systems,
20:43which not only are able to provide warnings as early as possible,
20:48and again, let's remember in August, some of the areas that were impacted by that flood,
20:53the chance of being able to get an early warning to the really upstream areas is very slim.
21:00But what we could see is a system that reduces the impact,
21:06that gives as many people as much warning as possible,
21:09and importantly, a system that crosses boundaries.
21:12So when different countries are impacted, a system whereby there's already an agreement
21:19on how information will be shared, what information will be shared,
21:22and how it can be shared in a way that's fast enough to respond to these kinds of events.
21:30So I think those are really important factors in what I would like to see here.
21:36Right. And I think it's pertinent as well, because we often see in the news about rapid warming in the
21:42Arctic
21:43and glacial risk in the Arctic, for example.
21:46There should be, at least for people in this region where I'm from,
21:51there should be more focus on what is happening in the Himalaya,
21:54just because the abundance of resources that are there, the water tower of Asia,
22:00there should be more focus and more attention.
22:03And I'm glad that ISMOT is spearheading this kind of initiatives
22:06to look into what needs to be done to ensure that disasters like this
22:12doesn't become so catastrophic like today, right?
22:16I want to touch on one more thing, because, a little bit touchy,
22:20because obviously when we talk about this kind of disasters,
22:24Nepal has called for greater responsibility or accountability
22:28in the national support from countries that have contributed for far more to global emission.
22:33And I think we cannot sideline the climate issue when it comes to all this.
22:37So how should we understand that argument?
22:40Is this fundamentally about seeking for climate justice,
22:43or is it about who bears the responsibility for the consequences
22:47of a changing risk or Himalayan environment?
22:51What are your thoughts on this kind of action, asking for accountability?
22:57Yeah, and such a central issue as well, I think.
23:00And also, when you look at the increasing intensity and the impact of the kinds of events
23:07that we're seeing in the Himalayas, these are increasing all the time,
23:11and there's an increasing risk there.
23:13And countries like Nepal are on the front line.
23:16They're really feeling the impacts of those events.
23:19And as Ankit said, proving, demonstrating the causality between every kind of event
23:25and climate change is sometimes harder.
23:27But actually, it's clear a warming world is meaning that the glaciers are melting faster,
23:34and we're seeing more of these impacts on countries that can least afford to bear the costs of them.
23:40And let's not forget the government of Nepal has released an early figure
23:43saying that they think that the cost of responding to this,
23:47dealing with the aftermath of this flood, could be around $6 billion.
23:53We are talking about enormous costs that are falling on, actually,
23:58what are some of the lowest emitting countries,
24:00if we think about the emission of gases that warm the atmosphere.
24:07And, in fact, look to Nepal's border, look to Bhutan, which is next door,
24:13and they are, in fact, carbon neutral, they're carbon negative.
24:16Sorry, their emissions are negative.
24:20So these countries are definitely not the main emitters,
24:25and there is a clear imbalance there.
24:27I mean, however, that said, I feel some hope when I look at the global process,
24:32because, for example, there's a fund that's been set up for responding to loss and damage,
24:39and that fund is designed to respond to the, to provide funding to support the response to these kinds of
24:48events.
24:49And what I am hopeful will happen is that that fund and other sources of finance will respond rapidly
24:57to provide the financial resources and support that countries like Nepal need to deal with this kind of issue.
25:05And I think there's a, I've got a broader, I feel broadly also positive about the need for global countries,
25:14countries around the world that might feel distanced from these sorts of events,
25:18needing to come together and recognise that actually the whole global system, environmental system is interconnected.
25:25And there might be a disaster here in Nepal, but actually, the system that drives this process is a global
25:33system.
25:34And it's one that everyone and all countries are part of.
25:37And I think that's a really important point for us to remember.
25:41I mean, that's a very nice message.
25:43And I do hope that countries take heed of what you said, because we talk about events,
25:48we talk about COP30, we talk about, you know, all these climate pledges,
25:52but I think we actually have to see, you know, the outcome of some of these pledges
25:57and actually look at, you know, what they're doing and whether or not they are tackling some of the world's
26:03biggest problems, right?
26:06Ankit, I'm going to bring you back in here because we only have about a few minutes left.
26:10From a scientific perspective here, are we reaching a point where government needs to fundamentally rethink
26:17how do you prepare for disasters in the Himalayas rather than treating each flood or landslide or avalanche
26:23as just another isolated event?
26:25In brief, Ankit.
26:28I would say the government understand the risk and there have been effort.
26:34But sometimes, given the vastness of the region and the nature,
26:38it's often really difficult to predict some of these disasters, actually.
26:44So, yes, we need to be more aware.
26:47We need to put much more effort.
26:49We need to leverage the technological advancement for the satellite images or in terms of monitoring.
26:56And then in that way, that would be the way forward to predict and forecast the next disaster
27:03and minimize, of course, the damage out of that.
27:08Right. And David, my last question goes to you.
27:11Be it as me, you can be as optimistic or pessimistic as you want.
27:14If we look at, you know, 10 or 20 years ahead, do we see this shared environmental risk
27:20as a source of greater competition or tension, particularly over, you know, water, resources
27:26or even infrastructure?
27:27Or could they actually be a catalyst for a new level of regional cooperation,
27:32be it in the region or elsewhere?
27:35I think the latter, Farhana.
27:38I think that's because that has to be the case, because these disasters are impacting
27:43on all the countries in the Himalayas.
27:46And it's not possible to draw a boundary between one country and another when it comes to a disaster
27:51like this.
27:52They cross boundaries.
27:53They're not interested in national borders.
27:56And I think that has to lead to a recognition and an understanding of the importance of cross-boundary
28:03collaboration.
28:04And that has to be the way forwards.
28:07Right.
28:08I think you heard it here first, the audience.
28:11The challenges facing the Himalayas may begin in the mountains, but their consequences extend
28:16far beyond them.
28:17Thank you so much, gentlemen, Ankit Pramanik and David Potter from Istimod for joining us
28:23on Awani Global.
28:25And I think, you know, we'll be keeping track of what's happening in the Nepal-Tibet border,
28:30but at the same time, what's happening in the Himalayas as well.
28:32And we thank you for your contributions and making sure that, you know, everyone there is
28:38safe and that, you know, disasters like this doesn't have to be so catastrophic in the future.
28:45That's all from me.
28:46I'm Phan Aishe.
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