00:03hello alex here from farm online weather this is your national weather forecast for the 13th of
00:08september we're also going to have a look at the summer long-term predictions um so that's coming
00:14up after our whip around the country first off let's start looking at the current weather map
00:18so this is what's happening at 10 a.m today this is a high pressure system sitting over the tasman
00:22driving northerly flow across the southeast delivering that really warm pleasant weather
00:27for the weekend uh there's a trough that started to move through for south australia that's starting
00:32to pick up that wind and a bit of rain and cloud associated there we have high pressure across
00:37most of the west as well with these interior troughs now these troughs are what will deliver
00:42a lot of um sort of rain thunderstorms lightning across the week as well so we're going to have
00:48a look at that in our daily breakdown okay this is the rainfall accumulation every single day
00:53starting here on sunday this is that trough associated um across south australia which
00:56is coming in to victoria and tasmania monday but mainly tuesday so this is monday showers down here
01:02you can see the start of this trough system in wa and it's nice and sunny in queensland northern
01:07territory throughout the week so we probably won't chat much about that there tuesday um most of the
01:12front moves through down here in victoria and tasmania mostly missing new south wales new south
01:15wales also stays pretty dry and calm for the week wind fields aren't incredibly strong with that front
01:20there there's an intensification of this low pressure trough in wa again delivering that lightning and
01:25thunder by wednesday most of that system has moved off into the tasman sea and a high pressure system
01:30starts to take place delivering calm stable warm weather to much of um the east coast although on
01:38wednesday it's still relatively chilly as we have these southerly winds driving that cold air into the
01:42region but by thursday it starts to warm up for our daytime temperatures that low pressure trough has
01:47cleared off in wa but we are getting frost and fog in the morning as we get that radiative cooling
01:52overnight by friday a front starts to move through here in wa it's still nice and calm in the east
01:57coast
01:57for saturday a similar pattern and then by sunday it's relatively nice in most places except for victoria
02:03and new south wales which is starting to get rainfall however all the rain that we're seeing this week is
02:08really like pretty low in terms of what's going to be delivered on ground and the atmosphere is pretty dry
02:13so there's not a lot of moisture available there in any of those systems all right that is the weather
02:18forecast
02:18for this week um things to note is that there is some sort of um intensified fire risk with these
02:23weather systems go and check out your um independent regions forecast to have a look at that fire risk
02:29there as well okay um this is what the rainfall accumulation looks like as you can see just a
02:34little bit of rain from those fronts moving through the south and then this is from that interior trough
02:38cool we're done with the weather forecast let's have a look at the long range forecast
02:42okay jumping in now to the long range forecast we're going to look at the warm season so november
02:47to january um because i've been seeing a lot of discussion around lately that it's quite wet on
02:52the forecast and yeah so let's have a chat this is the chance of exceeding the median rainfall for
02:57november to january and as you can see there's a really strong likelihood of that in southern wa
03:02and as well in southern queensland and why this is being discussed quite a bit is because
03:07with el nino we typically expect drier than normal conditions and so there's a few um you know people
03:14sort of challenging the um you know the trustworthiness of forecasts and things like
03:19that but i thought i thought we'd break it down so firstly remembering as we discussed in a video a
03:23few
03:23months ago that the strength of an el nino does not necessarily correlate to the strength of drought
03:28or fire conditions so that's definitely something to just keep in the back of your mind and remember
03:32but the other thing is chance of exceeding rainfall doesn't tell us about how much rainfall we're
03:38exceeding a buy so that's what we're going to do today we're going to compare sort of this almost
03:42summer period to last year's summer period and have a look at um how much is actually in that above
03:47average rainfall so firstly let's have a look let's get our eye in this is um november 2025 to january
03:562026 rainfall deciles so it's the same period as this forecast but we're just getting our eye in
04:01looking at the deciles so last year we had very much above average rainfall in um the sort of
04:08northern end and then it was below average for a lot of sort of central south australia and then
04:13central new south wales and then these southern coastal regions got about average rainfall so
04:17that's that's what the deciles looked like last year okay what we're going to flick to the view of now
04:22is actually the rainfall totals so we can see how much was in the rainfall that was delivered and
04:28then this side we're going to look at the 75 chance scenario so how much actually rainfall is
04:34most likely going to be delivered or at least that's what like we're seeing in a lot of the
04:38models okay cool the purpose of this um just to put into context is so that you can look at
04:45your farm
04:45records for this period last year and compare it to this season and see if it's going to be you
04:51know
04:51roughly similar drier wetter so that you can make better decisions for your farm okay cool so let's
04:59start out in um let's actually start out in sort of this interior southern queensland area because
05:05that's expected to potentially exceed median this year where it was below average last year okay so
05:11last year we'll look at this sort of air at bordered area we got 25 to 50 mils in this
05:18little region
05:18here and if we look at what we're going to receive or the likely likely what we're going to receive
05:24it's
05:24also 25 to 50 mils the difference is i suppose is that these bands in between particularly this like
05:30100 to 200 color seem to be a little bit wider than last year so there's definitely a chance that
05:36there's going to be that more rainfall but the point is is that the um you know this this view
05:45that we looked at here which makes it look like it's going to be really wet it's a reminder that
05:49that's not what this shows okay it just shows the probability of exceeding the median um and that
05:56could just be by a few mils okay so just because you see this dark blue does not mean it's
06:01going to
06:02be wet it just means it's probably going to maybe be about average or a little bit above that okay
06:08i hope
06:08that sort of helps put that into context um whereas if we look at something like last year where we
06:15had
06:16very much above average rainfall here in the north end um about 800 to 1200 millimeters this year it's
06:23looking like we're going to get more like three to four hundred okay so that's quite a big difference
06:29cool let's look now in wa where we're seeing that it's very likely that we're going to exceed the
06:35median um whereas last year it was about the median right so around this perth region um we've received
06:4110 to 25 mils whereas this year it's looking more like 25 to 50 mils okay cool so that's kind
06:48of that
06:48and then this whole yellow um blob which is 25 to 50 this year it's more looking like 50 to
06:53100 okay
06:54so that looks like there's actually a bit more um rain on the way and it's going to be potentially
06:57substantial now let's look at victoria which is looking to be quite dry or below or it's unlikely to
07:04receive the median that's what we saw in that um forecast before if we look at something like
07:09the gippsland region which is down here this receives 200 to 300 mils last year right which
07:15was if we look at the deciles here which was um above average to average if you go a little
07:22bit further
07:22up yeah so um 200 to 300 mils this year it's looking like about 100 to 200 okay so it
07:30does seem
07:31like we're not going to exceed the median but it also seems like we're actually going to receive
07:36less than average okay that's just a clue to get your head in i recommend that you use these maps
07:42to
07:42help you understand what your specific area might look like as well okay but um really what i want to
07:50drive home the message just from this comparison is that if you see some people online using some
07:56really strong language to get your engagement to get you to interact with their content just to
08:01remember that um you know be skeptical of the language that people use that they're being
08:07transparent in the model confidence and if you're unsure um to make sure that you're seeking out valid
08:12sources of information by people that really understand how these models work and things like
08:16that okay stay safe have a great week and we will see you next time bye
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