00:03Hello southeastern Australia, it is Sunday the 8th of November and this is your weather update for
00:06the week ahead. I thought we'd start out by having a look at the current mean sea level pressure map
00:10just to show you what's going on as there's a lot of interesting features on the map this week and
00:14it's not a very simple forecast. So starting off we have this low pressure which is actually kind
00:19of a bit of like a little cyclone, a lot of vorticity through it that's extending up with
00:23this front and driving a lot of strong winds across the east coast which has resulted in
00:28some hazardous surf warnings. This moved through sort of the sort of Victoria Tasmania region a few
00:34days ago which you know it's quite rainy weekend and it's now sitting in the Tasman driving a lot
00:38of this wind into the region. We have a high pressure system coming in which is clearing up skies but
00:44it's
00:44not really warming temperatures up leading to some cold overnight temperatures so I'm seeing some
00:48sheep graziers warnings potential frost and fog with that. We also have a lot of troughs in the region
00:53which are you know driving some rainfall that we're going to see some significant rainfalls
00:57especially in northern New South Wales across the week as these little blobs pop up. We also have
01:02this little low pressure system which has a front coming out out of it. Now this front isn't at the
01:07moment I haven't seen it really crossing across the continental masses however it will likely weaken to
01:12a trough and again deliver some rainfall with that. So that's kind of what's going on where we're
01:17placed at the moment. That being said if we look at the rainfall totals this week whilst most of the
01:22southeast is getting some rain not super strong rain unless you're in certain areas. So especially
01:28this sort of southeast corner again of Queensland still quite a bit of rain and then northern New
01:33South Wales there are some days where there's lots of rain and lots of thunderstorms there.
01:36Um but in the sort of Victorian South Australia region not not very high totals of rain and even
01:41Tasmania you know the whole state is getting rain but that west coast is is a lot drier than sort
01:46of
01:46usual that we'd see this time of year. All right so let's get into the current warnings. So let's
01:50start on Sunday. Sunday we still have minor and moderate flood risks across southern Queensland.
01:54We have hazardous marine wind or dangerous surf warnings across the east coast. In the pink here we
01:59have sheep graziers warnings and on Monday you can see that sort of dangerous uh dangerous surf is
02:04being issued again for New South Wales. I want to just quickly talk about the sheep graziers warnings.
02:08Here we're looking at the 5am temperatures forecast for Monday morning and you can see large areas of
02:13Victoria, southern New South Wales and Tasmania will experience 0 to 5 degrees celsius. So we have quite
02:18cool temperatures there at the start of the week. They do warm up as the week goes on so if
02:22we go to
02:23somewhere like Wednesday or whatever this model is showing um here we go so Thursday I think here we
02:31are Wednesday 4am 5 to 10 degrees so it is definitely warming up as the week progresses. Also taking
02:35stock before we get into the daily forecast we'll talk about wind. So this this little cyclone sitting
02:41off here in the Tasman is driving some very very strong wind gusts that's what's coming in and
02:45creating those dangerous conditions along the east coast here. We're looking here at the Monday wind
02:49gusts at about 1pm. This is that other little sort of low pressure system sitting down in the southern
02:53ocean with a front moving through and that's also delivering very strong wind gusts especially in
02:57South Australia 40 to 63 kilometers an hour and down here in Tassie um 40 to 63 kilometers an hour
03:02maybe 63
03:03plus okay. So that wind is also going to come and move through. I'm seeing lots of strong wind gusts
03:07this week
03:08and I think compared to what we've had the last few months which has been relatively settled wind
03:11I think this is quite a windy week ahead. All right let's go into the rainfall forecast. So starting
03:16out on Monday this front is delivering anywhere between 1 and 5 mils in South Australia otherwise
03:21we're relatively dry across the rest of the east coast. On Tuesday similar conditions maybe a light
03:27shower in Tasmania starting to again get those light showers in the southeast probably not on Tuesday
03:32but Wednesday it's when the rain arrives okay. So it's on Wednesday that I've started to see
03:39some thunderstorms pop up in some models in this northern New South Wales region
03:43maybe extending into southeast Queensland again as well. So that's something to look out for is those
03:48thunderstorms um otherwise we're dry out in South Australia but basically along the whole
03:52coastal region we're going to be getting anywhere between 2 and maybe 20 mils so that's what I'm seeing
03:58there for Wednesday. All right Thursday you can see this high pressure system here this has started
04:03to establish and dry out the interiors coastal areas still delivering rainfall and around the
04:07Brisbane sort of central southern Queensland region we're getting strong rain again and also around
04:12Sydney you know if we zoom in around Sydney region anywhere between 5 and possibly 25 mils so that's
04:18what we're seeing there for Thursday. Moving ahead to Friday it does start to settle there on Friday
04:24except for South Australia where we're starting to get 1 to 2 mils but again that's very light rain
04:28other than that we're relatively settled maybe north of Sydney 5 to 10 mils. Okay Saturday now the
04:33rainfall on this forecast doesn't look that strong I'm going to zoom in a little bit there um you know
04:39we're seeing localized highs of sort of 10 to 15 mils however I have seen some models that basically all
04:47of this stretch is severe thunderstorms thunderstorms convective permitted thunderstorms seven days ahead of
04:55the forecast you know that's not a great confidence in the forecast that we have but I just wanted to
04:59let you know that there is the potential for that um as I know that there were some really strong
05:02thunderstorms this week in the sort of southeast Queensland region so just wanted to let you know
05:06that that exists there for Saturday and I've also seen that same risk there for Sunday you can see
05:10we're seeing more intense rain here 15 to 25 mils on the Sunday and again across southern Queensland some
05:14more moderate to intense rainfall there. Tasmania this is actually for the um northeast coast a bit of rain
05:21sort of 10 to 15 mils possibly so that could be exciting if you're hanging out for rain over there
05:25but otherwise we're dry in most of the southern regions. All right that is it for southeast Australia
05:30so as I said it's warming up as the week progresses as these next rain systems move through on the
05:35weekend
05:36it will cool off again there are some strong winds that we're seeing this week and we're also seeing
05:40some thunderstorms in northeast New South Wales southern Queensland on Wednesday and then along these sort of
05:45central ranges Saturday and Sunday. Have a great week, do stay safe and we'll see you next time, bye!
