00:02Hello, it is Monday the 31st of August and this is the seasonal forecast for spring looking ahead.
00:08We'll start off with rainfall. Now we can't look back at the months of winter yet because it's the
00:13last day of winter when I'm filming this. The Bureau doesn't release the data for a few more
00:17days but if you are interested they've made a seasonal forecast video where they look back
00:21and forward that's currently available on their website but we'll just have a look today at what
00:26we've got for spring coming ahead. So this is the chance of exceeding the median rainfall across
00:31springtime. You can see there's a very very high chance that in WA across most of the state you'll
00:36exceed median rainfall. A very low chance in the southeast and the southwest corners that there
00:41will be above average rainfall. In fact there's high chances that it will be much below average
00:46rainfall. 50-50 chance so either way about how this sort of central east is going to act and then
00:52pockets again of low chances of exceeding the median rainfall. Now if we actually look at this in
00:57terms of the millimeters, so here we're going to look at the 75% chance scenario, so the highly likely
01:02scenario, you can see you know along WA where there's an 80% chance we're only talking like between
01:092 and 50 mils and so that high percentage chance of exceeding is just a couple of mils either side
01:16there really because the spring rainfall is already so low. So that's just something to keep in mind when you
01:22look at that WA blob. It's not that there's torrential rain coming, it's just that it's slightly higher
01:27than normal. There is predictions I've seen out there that the wet season for WA or for northern WA
01:35is likely to start earlier this year than normal. So there you go, so it could start raining a little
01:41bit earlier than normal. Okay along the east coast we're seeing largely between sort of 50 and 200
01:47millimeters is going to be available across the southeast there as well. So that's the very likely
01:53scenario even if I look at the 25% chance scenario, so this should be unlikely but if it was
01:59to occur,
01:59we're talking about like the upper limits of the rainfall here, we're still seeing that across the
02:04interior it's between sort of 100 and maybe 300 mils. So not a great difference in the totals there even
02:13if we
02:13sort of best case scenario there's still not a lot of rain that the models are showing there. Okay
02:20cool. What we are fairly confident in is this, that it will be a very hot spring and already we
02:31are
02:31seeing that this week in the forecast. So if you looked at your state's forecast especially along the
02:36east coast here we are exceeding September maximum temperatures already at the very start of September.
02:44Usually when we get records of maximum temperatures you know the highest in sort of a month it's
02:49typically towards the end of that month especially in the shoulder season so for September onwards it
02:54would be towards the end. The fact that it's towards the start is showing how hot of a spring it's
02:59going to
02:59be I think. So what we're looking at here is um chance of unusually high maximum temperatures for spring
03:06and by unusually high maximum temperatures we mean the the hottest 20% um for seasons this time of year.
03:13So 20% would be you know one in every five days um so you could think about like that
03:20or you could think
03:21about it um the chance of sort of the monthly you know if you get like a few really hot
03:29days per month
03:31you know what's the chance of exceeding those few hot days that's that's what the 20% means okay.
03:36And as you can see across most of the south of the country you are four times more likely to
03:42exceed
03:43the hottest 20% of this time of year. In summation it is incredibly likely that we will have
03:51some record-breaking um spring temperatures and I think in general what I'm seeing from these
04:00forecasts is that it's not just that we're going to hit um you know the highest maximum temperature
04:05one day but we're going to get these stretches of very warm temperatures in a row um especially
04:11down here in the south. Now it's not as likely in the north here um as the sort of wet
04:17season starts
04:18to arrive and we're getting cloud cover there as well so we're not seeing those impacts of El Nino
04:23quite as strongly up in the north. Okay those are some of the major stories well actually we will
04:28just quickly check the minimum temperature top quintile is also very high so we're also very
04:33likely to see overnight temperatures being quite warm as well. Okay that's it for I suppose the seasonal
04:39forecast a very very brief look into the climate drivers just to show you what's happening.
04:44Enso continues to show that it will intensify and remain strong into summer. The southern
04:51oscillation index is currently on this sort of rebound phase but it will likely oscillate back down.
04:57The Indian Ocean Dipole is trending back towards this sort of neutral stance.
05:03The southern annular mode is currently in a slightly negative phase of strong fronts that's why we've had
05:09some of those rain bands move through and that's um definitely possibly contributing to some of the
05:15flooding that we've seen down in the southeast but again trending back up to neutral. And then finally
05:21the Man and Julian Oscillation is again very close to that center ring meaning that we're not getting
05:25very intense fluctuations in the MJO. Okay that is the seasonal forecast for spring looking ahead.
05:32Hopefully next week we will have the winter data to look back on so we can start to understand and
05:37contextualize what that might look like and where we're going. Okay have a really safe week. We'll see you next
05:42time.
Comments