00:00Short rates, this was during the 50 years that ended in 1929 before the depression, short rates averaged the same
00:11rate as nominal GDP growth, which was 4.8 percent back then.
00:18Long rates averaged 3.8 percent, so short rates were taking their cues from nominal growth.
00:26Long rates were taking their cues more from really deflation or no inflation back then.
00:36And the yield curve was inverted more than 60 percent of the time on average for about 100 basis points.
00:47So we do think we could see nominal GDP growth in the 6 to 8 percent range.
00:55That would be where we would expect short rates to go and long rates to be 5 to 7 percent.
01:04So from a government yield point of view, we're at the lower end of that range already.
01:09Until the next one, we're ready.
