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The numbers point to a dominant divisional win, but history tells a much darker story under the lights. Can Washington finally break their primetime curse, or is an inevitable disaster brewing?
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00:00All right, obviously, massive, massive game.
00:03If you want to have any hope, realistic hope,
00:06sure they could come back mathematically and go on some crazy run,
00:08but you've got to win, especially when you consider
00:11the way the game is shaping up.
00:16The match-up predictor has Washington 65% chance to win cakes
00:23for whatever that's worth.
00:25Now, it's not as crazy as the one we saw a couple weeks ago, right,
00:28it was like 85%, but when you break it down statistically.
00:33That was the Niner game?
00:34Yeah, I think so.
00:35When you break it down statistically, I mean,
00:38even though you think of the Eagles and their defense and stuff,
00:41the Commanders have the edge kind of everywhere, but we'll get there.
00:45First, I always want to talk about sort of the injury status
00:49and that sort of thing.
00:50I have the injury report.
00:52Good news, Stefan Diggs was a full participant, okay,
00:57so he's back, so that bodes very well.
00:59Because I believe he was a non-participant on Wednesday.
01:02Wednesday, they say it was a rest day for his hand and his hamstring.
01:05It's that veteran maintenance day that a lot of guys get,
01:08especially when you're 30-plus.
01:09He needs to go.
01:10And then he was a full participant yesterday, Thursday,
01:13so that's obviously a great sign.
01:15Of course, Jaden's still a full participant.
01:18You just keep crossing your fingers that he can keep just stacking
01:21healthy games together.
01:23Marcus Mariota, full participant, so we have a real backup there,
01:28which is good.
01:29Fabian Moreau, also a full participant, and Colson Yankoff.
01:34Now, other guys, we talked about Johnny Newton.
01:38He's been back but limited.
01:40I don't think anybody expects them to activate him to the active roster,
01:45although his window is open now, his 21-day window.
01:49He could be, obviously, helpful.
01:50A Menehue, he's got a groin and an ankle.
01:53He's limited.
01:54And then doesn't look good, I would think.
01:58Nick Gallagretti did not practice.
02:02He's got a back issue.
02:05Javon Kinlaw did not practice.
02:09Unlikely to play on Sunday, according to Dan Quinn.
02:14Traylon Burks did not practice.
02:16Not boating well for him.
02:17And, Cakes, believe it or not, John Bates.
02:21So, again, more snaps for Chig.
02:25More snaps and more targets for my guy Chig.
02:28Yeah, but Bates is the blocker.
02:29He's the blocker, of course.
02:31You need him.
02:32But Sinnott can block.
02:33The one thing they'll say about Sinnott is he hasn't blossomed as a receiver,
02:36capable, but hasn't really been taken advantage of.
02:39That's fine.
02:39Let him block.
02:39But he surprised people as a blocker.
02:41He can stay in and block.
02:42Chig can run the routes.
02:43Yeah.
02:44That's the way it should be broken up.
02:46So, of course, we're going to have Adam Peters on.
02:48What time do we have Adam on?
02:499 o'clock?
02:509.20?
02:508.25.
02:53We'll get into this with Adam and break down and talk about the game.
02:57I have to say, I was kind of surprised.
02:59When you look at it statistically, just wanted to do like a simple breakdown.
03:03Commander's offense versus the Eagles defense.
03:05We basically have a slight edge everywhere.
03:07Eagles defense is actually ranked below the Commanders.
03:10Yeah, they're ranked 21st in points allowed.
03:14They're giving up 25 points per game defensively.
03:17And, you know, they have such a fearsome sort of front four there, you think.
03:21I was talking about yardage.
03:23Jordan Davis has been banged up.
03:25Yardage or 27th?
03:26Yeah.
03:27Jordan Davis has been banged up for the last few weeks.
03:30I mean, I think he's going to go, but he has been banged up.
03:33And Nolan Smith Jr. has also been banged up.
03:35They're 27th in rushing yards allowed.
03:37They're giving up 131 yards per game.
03:40Now, we know that Washington ranks fairly high.
03:44They're ninth in the league, but a lot of that is quarterback driven.
03:48So you need to get some real running yards from your backs cakes.
03:54Could it be a Jeremy McNichols day?
03:56I think it's going to be a big Rashad White thing.
03:57I think it's going to be White.
03:58Okay.
03:58With Bill sidelined, he's going to have a big role.
04:00I think Rashad White's going to catch some balls.
04:03He's going to obviously have some attempts.
04:05I don't know how many he'll have, but I think he's going to catch some balls.
04:07I think with White is, I haven't seen anywhere near the kind of the lightness on his feet
04:12or explosiveness that I expected.
04:14Yeah.
04:14I haven't seen anywhere near that.
04:16Maybe you'll see it against a banged up Philly defense this weekend.
04:19I feel like when McNichols gets in there every once in a while, he pops.
04:24So, you know, he doesn't get that many carries.
04:27They're 26th in passing yards allowed.
04:29They give up almost 240 yards per game passing-wise.
04:35So, maybe an opportunity for Jaden to have a good game if he could get some time.
04:42Red zone percentage.
04:44Let me see.
04:44Oh, I don't have a number for them there.
04:47Third down percentage.
04:48They're allowing teams to convert 41% of the time.
04:54Now, unfortunately, do you know where Washington ranks their down percentage offensively?
05:01Ooh, it's got to be pretty low.
05:02I'm going to say they're 28th.
05:04How about their worst in the NFL?
05:05Jeez.
05:0630.9.
05:07And, you know, I think a lot of that is based on these stupid penalties.
05:11They had 3rd and 12s and 3rd and 15s.
05:14All the time.
05:15Then when you look at them, defense versus offense, obviously they're limited.
05:21They have their health issues, right?
05:23You have Jalen out.
05:24I'm not even sure what the latest status.
05:26I've got to look up what the latest status on Saquon is.
05:29But Barkley did not practice on Thursday.
05:31He's listed as questionable.
05:33He'll probably be a game-time decision.
05:34Devonta Smith didn't practice.
05:36Wicks.
05:36Even Wicks didn't practice on Thursday.
05:38I don't think they're going to have Wicks or Smith.
05:40Good.
05:40So, that's going to be Lemon and maybe, I don't know, Darius Cooper.
05:43And Goddard will probably play a big role at tight end.
05:45Goddard will probably have 10 catches because tight ends kill Washington.
05:49Right.
05:49So, while the Eagles' defense gives up 25 points allowed, that's not great.
05:56Washington actually is worse.
05:58So far, they're giving up 28.7.
06:01That's 31st in the NFL.
06:02But JP's right.
06:03They're slightly better, the Commanders, defensively in yards allowed.
06:10So, they're only giving up.
06:11Isn't it crazy how the NFL season is so unpredictable that we're playing the Eagles
06:15and we're saying this would be a bad loss?
06:19Well, maybe with all the personnel exchanges.
06:22Isn't that crazy?
06:22Isn't that crazy?
06:23And I feel like you can't allow a Tanner McKee-led offense to score more than,
06:28I'd say, 23 points.
06:30If they have more than 23 points with Tanner McKee calling the signals,
06:34they might win.
06:35That's going to be a bad look for this defense.
06:37They scored 26 or 27.
06:38They might win that game.
06:39Yeah.
06:40Here's a bad trend for the Washington Commanders.
06:43In their last five games, kicked off after 8 p.m.
06:47And Sunday night will be after 8 p.m.
06:49Primetime game.
06:490-4.
06:510-5.
06:51Most recent primetime regular season victory was in 2024.
06:56That feels like a problem that's been plaguing this team for decades.
06:59We have the occasional pop, you know, where we beat Pittsburgh or something.
07:03But it seems more random.
07:05Like a brief respite in 2024 because they beat Cincinnati on Monday night.
07:12That line playoff game was a night game.
07:14The Bears game was a primetime game.
07:15The Hail Mary game.
07:16They won that.
07:17I think so, yeah.
07:18But, yeah, for the most part in the last 30 years, you see primetime and
07:22Commanders.
07:23It's a bad combination.
07:24Look, they've lost most of their daytime games, too.
07:26I don't feel like if we were to look at their daytime record, it's not very good
07:30in the last two seasons.
07:31Going back to week one when they lost to the Eagles, which came down to that
07:37two-point conversion at the end, one guy to look at is Antonio Williams.
07:40He burst onto that scene with four catches in that game for 64 yards and a
07:44touchdown, but that's where I think he was matched up with Dejean a few times
07:48and he kind of exposed him.
07:49Now he's going to be in a more prominent role, so it'll be interesting to see
07:53how he does.
07:54Like if they throw Quenyon Mitchell on him, that could be a longer day.
07:58And you mentioned Trelon Burks not practicing.
08:00I'm going to be interested to see how the receivers are without Terry McLaurin
08:04there.
08:05He's not going to replace McLaurin's routes, though.
08:08They say he's still going to run those slot routes that he's been running.
08:12All right, so it's going to be Diggs on the outside.
08:15Deami.
08:16Deami's going to get some run.
08:18That's why I think Chig and Rashad White are going to get some catches.
08:22Yeah.
08:23Combined catches, I'm going to say 12.
08:27Oh, that seems kind of high.
08:2912 between both Chig and Rashad White?
08:32I'm going to say 7 for Chig, 5 for Rashad.
08:35For once in my life, I want to take it under.
08:37So why don't we throw it out to callers how they see it.
08:41I mean, on paper, when you factor in health and everything, the commanders hold
08:46advantage of both sides of the ball, right?
08:49Better offensive production.
08:51They've got the bye week edge.
08:53The Eagles have, you know, serious offensive personnel issues with all the injuries that
08:59we talked about.
09:00It's still projected kind of in low-scoring territory there.
09:0440 and a half.
09:07Red zone play, turnovers, probably, you know, like typical, like most games, but decided.
09:13You know, I think about this often.
09:14A lot of times you watch a football game and, you know, I'm not sure if the best team wins.
09:19But one turnover or one big play can make such a difference.
09:23In basketball, you have one great play, it's one in 50, or one in 100 great plays, right?
09:27One big play in football, so big, it can decide it.
09:31So you've got to have the big plays.
09:33Do we all think that commanders win?
09:35Right now, I'm looking at our Junkies Poll of the Day.
09:3771% are in on the commanders getting a win.
09:40Junkies Poll of the Day brought to you by Surfside Iced Tea and Vodka.
09:43And Surfside Lemonade and Vodka, this football season, grab a Surfside, your go-to canned cocktail,
09:48made with real Vodka, only 100 calories, and zero bubbles.
09:51It's not a seltzer, it's Surfside, must be 21, please drink responsibly.
09:55This is the problem.
09:56Winner?
09:56Winner for the commanders?
09:57I'm going to predict a win, but the problem is when we all predict the same thing, the opposite
10:01happens.
10:02I'm not sure about Bickle.
10:03Okay, so now, just for the sake of it, I'll pick the Eagles?
10:06Well, you did, I think you did predict earlier in the week you thought they were going to.
10:09No, I just, I feel like it's a doom, a doom and gloom year.
10:13Yeah, right.
10:13It turns, it turns.
10:14So yes, I think you should pick the Eagles.
10:15I think I'll pick the Eagles then.
10:17I'm going to pick Washington 23 to 20?
10:22I think it's going to be a lower scoring game.
10:24But we can't all pick the commanders because then the Eagles will definitely win.
10:28I think Washington should win pretty handily.
10:30I'll go 28 to 17.
10:32Okay.
10:34Oh, so they're going to win by 10 points?
10:36That would be 11.
10:3711?
10:37I mean, if you look at it, like statistically and everything, we should win the game by just
10:43common sense, but I'll pick the commanders, 27-21.
10:48Okay.
10:48All right, just to not jinx it, reverse luck, I'm going to pick the Eagles.
10:52Okay.
10:53I'm going to pick the Eagles.
10:54I hope I'm wrong.
10:55You know, you were talking about turnovers.
10:56That's something the Eagles stink at.
10:59Do you know how many takeaways they have on the season?
11:01I don't know.
11:02Two?
11:02Three.
11:03Yeah.
11:04Yeah.
11:04Three, that's it.
11:05And they were taking the ball away from everybody last year.
11:07They were very low in takeaways, and they actually don't have that many sacks either.
11:11Which is surprising, because on paper, you look at that defense, and they've got a bunch
11:16of names you're familiar with.
11:17A bunch of guys who have been pro bowlers, who have, you know, played very well in the
11:23past, but this season, it's just all slipping away from them.
11:27And the commanders are weird in that they're plus six in turnover differential.
11:32That's second best in the league.
11:33And all the other teams that are up there in that rarefied air are teams that are, like,
11:39leading their division or unbeaten.
11:41The Vikings are plus seven.
11:42Jags are plus five.
11:43Chiefs are plus five.
11:45Yeah.
11:45Somehow the commanders are plus six with one paltry win.
11:48Maybe they're doom cakes.
11:50And the Eagles have scored five less points than the commanders, and they've played one
11:55more game.
11:57I mean, offensively, they just, they're struggling all the way around.
12:02Valdez, you want to make a prediction?
12:04What's your vibe?
12:05Are you leaning?
12:06You have a tendency?
12:08I think this is a commander's blowout.
12:11Really?
12:12Yes.
12:12Blowout city?
12:14Blowout city.
12:15And then are we going to be reinvigorated and we're going to have new faith?
12:18We will.
12:19And then JP will be a wet blanket and say it's Tanner McKee.
12:22Is that a wet blanket or is that actually being truthful?
12:27I mean, it could be truthful, but that's okay.
12:28I don't care who's playing quarterback.
12:30You just win the game.
12:31The league wins.
12:32It doesn't matter who.
12:33I mean, that would be good if it was 31-17.
12:35If you have a bad quarterback, let's just say he's bad.
12:36I have no idea if he's bad.
12:37Assume he's bad.
12:38If he's bad, you should beat him.
12:40Yes.
12:41And so if you do, that's good.
12:42I watched him in the previous game and he was pretty inaccurate.
12:46Yeah.
12:46They only threw one interception in the game, but he had open receivers that he was throwing
12:51low.
12:51He was throwing behind him.
12:53He didn't look very good.
12:54All right.
12:54Well, maybe that's just because he's just started to play, so maybe he'll be better.
12:58The type of game where you can go to bed at halftime comfortably, not sweat it.
13:03Oh, I like your confidence.
13:05I don't know if Washington's offense is capable.
13:08Maybe.
13:09That'd be great.
13:12Then they've got the Rams after that, correct?
13:14Yes.
13:15At home.
13:16That's another massive one.
13:18They all are.
13:19There's only 17 of them.
13:20Yeah.
13:21Yeah.
13:21But the next couple, or if the season's hanging in a balance.
13:25But this has to keep you hopeful, this game.
13:27This has to keep you hopeful.
13:28Can you win this one and lose to the Rams, potentially, and still have a little hope,
13:34a little glimmer?
13:35Well, yes, you'd have to beat the Giants the following week.
13:37That would be a must-
13:38I think it depends on what the Giants do next week.
13:40If you beat the Eagles and Giants, obviously both division games-
13:43You're still hanging in there.
13:44You're still hanging in there.
13:44Yeah, but if you lose next week and the Giants get a win, the hole is really big.
13:52Yeah.
13:53That would be a three-game hole.
13:55Three-win hole.
13:56All right.
13:56800-636-1067.
13:57That's why you have to beat the Giants.
13:581-0-6-7.
14:00What do you like?
14:01Do you have a guarantee?
14:02Amik Robertson has a guarantee.
14:05He predicted blowout city, right?
14:08What were these-
14:09Blow them out of the water.
14:10We're going to blow them out of the water.
14:12What do you think?
14:12He convinced Valdez.
14:13Convince Valdez he's buying in.
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