00:00The way that Dave view it is that if it's somewhere between a five to 10% flip in terms
00:05of the percentages, it's not something that really means a lot.
00:08It's just, you know, things go either way.
00:10It's like almost shorting the market there.
00:13If you want to pick up a couple of percentage points, 20% usually means there's a potential
00:17shift.
00:18But what the prediction market analysts say is that anytime you see something between
00:2230 to 40%, you probably want to get in at that point because it seems like a complete
00:28flip is about to happen.
00:30But not a 10%, not a 15%.
00:32If you want to try and give it a shot, you could, but you could be on the other end
00:36of
00:36it.
00:36You could be on the losing end of it just with the amount of money that's being put up with
00:40some of this stuff.
00:41But I think without a doubt that when you're seeing somebody go from, let's say, 75 to 55,
00:49I think at that point you have to make the decision, hey, is it time to jump in or is
00:53it just a lot of money coming in on the other side?
00:56Is there any real information to this?
00:58Probably not in a lot of cases.
00:59So we'll know a lot more coming up in about 25 minutes from now.
01:04But zero precincts reporting, at least according to Cal Sheen Polymarket, on anything at the
01:10moment.
01:11All speculation for the time being.
01:14Yes, and also understand, you're going to have states like Ohio, North Carolina, and
01:19Texas.
01:20The first reports that are going to come from them are the early and mail-in votes.
01:26That's what you're going to see first.
01:27That's how they report in those states.
01:29They're going to give you the early and the mail-in vote count.
01:33That means absolutely nothing about who actually is at the polls and what the polls is going
01:39on right now.
01:40So again, don't buy into the overreaction for some of these numbers, especially in the
01:48states where the first thing you're going to hear is about the early and the mail-in votes,
01:52which, quite honestly, has already been worked in to what the numbers are in a lot of these
01:58spots.
01:58So keep an eye on those.
02:00We're going to do the same.
02:01Obviously, polls are getting ready to close here within the next hour.
02:05Also understand there are a number of markets, Greg, where they have already declared they're
02:11pushing how long it is before the polls close.
02:14In some places where it might have been 8 o'clock, some states are already now pushing
02:20the polls outward because they just can't get everybody in under the time frame now.
02:28So understand exactly what it is and where it is that you are looking to bet here.
02:35But as far as we're concerned, we are all about buying low and selling high here.
02:40What is the first upset, so to speak, Craig, that we see on the board tonight, early?
02:46What is the first overreaction going to be?
02:49Is it going to be the chamber?
02:50Is it going to be a House or a Senate race?
02:53Is it going to be possibly a swing?
02:55Because you and I both know it's no different than the public.
02:58I hear Lamar Jackson is now on the IR.
03:01Well, we're going to run to the window and bet Jacksonville and big time.
03:06Same thing.
03:07One bad piece of information does not mean or one bad report does not mean it changes
03:13what the outcome might very well be.
03:16But it certainly changes, Craig, the buying price that somebody like you and I or somebody
03:21at home watching can get into it.
03:24I'd much rather buy something at 60 cents than 80 cents.
03:28And that just makes the most sense here, Craig.
