00:00Notre Dame versus Miami.
00:01So let's try and set the table for a game that has taken some turns
00:06throughout the week because Malachi Tony is not only out for this game.
00:12Malachi Tony is out until the postseason for the Miami Hurricanes,
00:20whether that be a bowl game, the college football playoff.
00:23Time will tell on all of that.
00:28The interesting thing is Notre Dame, despite being ranked 11th
00:33and Miami being ranked first, Notre Dame were always going to be
00:39over a field goal favorite in this football game.
00:42And before anyone knew anything about Tony, before anyone knew anything,
00:46this number was five and a half.
00:48So now we got to a point where there were a lot of seven and a halves out there.
00:54Most are gone, still a little bit.
00:58Primarily, this number is a flat seven in favor of the Notre Dame
01:03fighting Irish here, Dave.
01:06What stands out the most to you going into, I think,
01:11what still is the most anticipated game of this college football season so far?
01:16What stood out to me was I got a seven and a half.
01:19And I got a seven and a half with the number one team in the country
01:23who beat this team last year.
01:24Now, I'm not saying Miami is going to win today.
01:26Obviously, I think they're alive.
01:27I think they're just as good, if not better, than Notre Dame.
01:30But they're missing Malachi Tony, and that's big.
01:32You're giving me the number one team in the country and seven and a half.
01:37I'm going to take it.
01:38They're good.
01:39Like, they're not number one because everybody else lost.
01:42They're number one because they're a really good football team.
01:45Even without Tony, they still have Darian Mensah, who, by the way,
01:48can win the Heisman Trophy.
01:50He's completed 81% of his passes, 25 touchdowns and one interception.
01:55They have the number one scoring offense in the country, number two total offense.
01:59They also have the best rush defense in the country, allowing just 61 yards per game,
02:05which is going to force Notre Dame and CJ Carr to throw them.
02:09I like Miami getting the five and a half and the four and a half,
02:13and now you're giving me seven and a half, and I get it.
02:16Malachi Tony's not playing, but he's not the only weapon they have.
02:19The weakness for Miami is their pass defense.
02:22So if CJ Carr and Notre Dame want to beat Miami, it's going to be through the air.
02:25It's not going to be on the ground.
02:27And Notre Dame's going to have to stop the Miami offense,
02:29which, again, is more than just Malachi Tony.
02:32Do I think a wide receiver in college should move the line as much as it did?
02:36And that's up for discussion.
02:38But it went through the magic key number of seven to seven and a half,
02:42and I jumped on it.
02:42And I had already said I was going to take Miami.
02:45Now I had to balance the fact that I got more points,
02:48but I'm also losing one of the best players in the country.
02:51What I am worried about, Kevin, and which is the hesitation I have here with Miami,
02:57is Notre Dame's backs are against the wall.
02:59The message that the committee sent them on Tuesday night was crystal clear
03:04by putting you at 11, which technically is the last spot
03:08because the 12th spot goes to the group of six.
03:11If Notre Dame loses to Miami, they are not, read my lips,
03:16not getting into the college football playoff unless the committee once again says,
03:20oh, well, the rules have changed, and we're just going to move Notre Dame back up
03:23because you just lost the only two games on your schedule that the committee thinks are good,
03:27Miami and BYU.
03:28You have nobody left that's going to move you up,
03:30and you're going to have a three- or four-loss SEC team ahead of you in the standings,
03:37and Notre Dame is 11th now.
03:39You lose, you're going to fall, and you can't get back up.
03:42So they will not make the playoff unless the committee just decides to change their mind
03:47and say, ah, Notre Dame's good enough, we'll put them in.
03:49Now I think they belong.
03:51The eye test to me, watching actual football, which I'm not sure the committee does,
03:56Notre Dame is a top-five team in the country.
03:58Even if they lose today, I have them in the playoff with the committee.
04:03And they even instituted rules to have them automatically in if they're in the top 12.
04:08Well, guess what?
04:09They're not getting in the top 12 if they lose today.
04:10So that worries me because I know their back's against the wall,
04:13and I do think they win, but I don't think they cover the 7-0.
04:18So the very interesting thing, even when, you know, Tony was healthy,
04:25is what I thought was a pretty strong message within the number,
04:31which is it's not that there's a gulf between these teams,
04:36but odds makers, without hesitation, would tell you Notre Dame is the better football team.
04:43And I don't think that that is as much a Notre Dame story as a Miami story.
04:53You and I have, you know, talked off course a lot about this Canes team
04:59and, you know, finding spots where they could potentially be vulnerable
05:04or win big and what have you.
05:07And I think the game against Florida State, where they were on, you know,
05:13real upset alert and maybe got an ACC, you know,
05:18wink and a nudge across the finish line, resonated with odds makers.
05:22I think the game against North Carolina that they trailed in the fourth quarter
05:28and ultimately only won by three.
05:31I think that that moved odds makers a little bit here
05:35to feel that Notre Dame are comfortably the better team.
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