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What does the 2026 U.S. midterm election mean for Donald Trump’s presidency and America’s role on the global stage? From tensions with Iran to strategic competition with China, Ambassador Edgard D. Kagan, Senior Adviser and Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and Professor Saeed A. Khan, Professor of Near East and Asian Studies and Global Studies at Wayne State University, share their insights on what lies ahead for U.S. foreign policy. #AWANIGlobal
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00:07Hello and welcome to Awani Global. I'm your host, Fahna Sheh.
00:11Now, it's been just over a week since Americans went to the polls for the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
00:18Now, with a handful of races still being called, one thing is clear,
00:22Democrats have secured control of both houses of representatives and the Senate
00:27in what has been widely described as a blue wave.
00:31Now, tonight we're looking beyond the election verdict to examine what these results have changed
00:38and what they don't about Trump's presidency and, more importantly, America's foreign policy.
00:44Now, joining us today are Ambassador Edgar D. Kagan, former U.S. Ambassador to Malaysia
00:49and now Senior Advisor and Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS.
00:56as well as Professor Syed A. Han, Professor of Near East and Asian Studies and Global Studies at Wayne State
01:04University.
01:05Thank you so much, gentlemen, for joining me today.
01:09Right. Before we get into the nitty-gritty of things, I want to look at what the midterm results
01:15or what it does or what has changed in Washington, right?
01:19Ambassador Kagan, maybe we can start with the results here.
01:22Some are calling it a blue wave that has swept across America,
01:27with Democrats making significant gains, including in traditionally Republican strongholds.
01:32But beyond the numbers, what does this result actually tell about Trump's political mandate
01:37and how Americans view his presidency?
01:40Maybe we can start there.
01:43Sure.
01:44Thank you so much for inviting me on the show.
01:47And let me just start off by saying how much I miss Malaysia.
01:51This is a really, really significant set of election results.
01:58I think that, in general, members of both parties are surprised by the extent of the Democratic victories,
02:07and particularly in places like South Carolina, Mississippi, Texas, and Iowa,
02:15places where Democrats really hadn't been competitive for many, many years.
02:19But I think that focusing just on the Senate, and obviously that was the big surprise.
02:25I think the general expectation was that Democrats would take the House.
02:29The question was by how much.
02:30I think the real surprise was the extent of the wins at the Senate level, but also at the state
02:37level.
02:37And I think across the board, what you can see is that there is tremendous dissatisfaction in the United States.
02:44And so I think that this is something that gives Democrats a significant opportunity in Washington.
02:51However, it's important to remember that the president holds the high cards on many, many issues, and in particular on
03:00foreign policy.
03:01Traditionally, what happens in the last two years of a two-term president's second term is that they focus on
03:09foreign policy,
03:09because that's where the president is able to really dominate the activities.
03:16The Congress will have a lot of influence on domestic issues, and I think that one of the big questions
03:24is what Democrats are going to do,
03:25because in the end, and this is an awkward thing for the Democratic Party, people didn't vote for Democrats.
03:32They voted against the president, they voted against Republicans, and they voted for individual candidates.
03:39The Democratic Party didn't put forward a national agenda.
03:43It didn't put forward something that would allow it to then say, this is what we have a mandate to
03:51do.
03:51They essentially campaigned against the president and against the status quo.
03:56So one of the challenges for Democrats will be, what do they do with this?
04:01For Republicans, it's going to be that this has been a wake-up call.
04:04The fact that Republicans have lost in so many traditionally Republican strongholds,
04:09and even in Florida, where they did hold, they lost significant ground.
04:14Democrats outperformed expectations.
04:17Right. And I think we're watching closely as well, you know, what the next two years will be.
04:23But I want to talk or elaborate a little bit more about the opportunity that you mentioned just now, right?
04:28What are the Democrats going to do?
04:30And I think, Syed, I'm going to bring you in here.
04:33The Democrats are set to take control of both chambers in January.
04:37Trump will be facing a divided government for the remainder of his term.
04:41Some are calling it his lame duck era.
04:44For our viewers, maybe let's break down what this actually means, right?
04:48How constrained will Trump be?
04:51And what can Democrats realistically achieve through Congress?
04:55And what powers will remain firmly in the hands of the president?
04:59I'd like to go ahead and piggyback on what Ambassador Kagan said.
05:04Is what is going to be the role of the majority Democrat Congress, both in the Senate and the House,
05:13particularly because of the mandate they, I think, quite reasonably can claim that they have,
05:19given the overwhelming victory and perhaps more importantly, the overwhelming sweep of power
05:25power tilting in their direction because the American public had essentially been fatigued
05:31by what they saw and what they were experiencing, particularly in the wallet and in the purse.
05:37The biggest buzzword of the election was affordability.
05:43And the Democrats were very astute in running with that as their slogan and staying really on message,
05:50even when there were efforts to try to deflect, to bring back identity politics,
05:56whether it was conservative issues regarding sexual orientation,
06:01whether it was some foreign policy issues, including Israel.
06:04Democrats, by and large, state-focused, especially in my home state,
06:09where you saw Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed certainly tout the issue of affordability,
06:17which, like in so many of the states that the ambassador mentioned,
06:20was a priority here among farmers, a devastated agricultural sector,
06:26which had been fairly faithful to President Trump voting for him in prior elections.
06:33But I think that that's really where the rubber meets the road,
06:36that on the one hand, you have what appears to be a focus on domestic agenda issues like affordability.
06:45But it's important to understand then that these were almost entirely driven by America's foreign policy in two ways.
06:52One, of course, being tariffs, and the other being the Iran War,
06:56which drove the prices up on fuel, on fertilizer,
07:01because of the disruption to the supply chains out of the Strait of Hormuz.
07:06But then also in the case of tariffs, when it came to the really devastating impact
07:12that it's been having on farmers, both in Michigan and across the country in so many states.
07:17So, in a sense, Americans voted indirectly for a check and balance on foreign policy,
07:25even though, of course, their primary concern was affordability for basic goods.
07:30Now, the ambassador is quite right that the executive branch and the president,
07:35with the White House, the Pentagon, the State Department, and several other agencies
07:39do have an awful lot of sway over foreign policy.
07:44But the House of Representatives, of course, has the so-called power of the purse
07:48when it comes to budgeting.
07:50And certainly the oversight of the Senate with the Foreign Relations Committee,
07:54with the Armed Services Committee, are going to be playing a very critical role
07:58on making sure that there are guardrails now, perhaps in a way that did not occur
08:03in the first two years of the Trump presidency.
08:06The other thing I'd like to comment on, I think the ambassador is quite right
08:12that normally, and that, of course, is the word that is rather loaded, I think,
08:18in the Trump presidency, normally, a second-term president in his final two years
08:24is going to try to establish a legacy on the world stage with foreign policy.
08:30This is the opportunity that a president ostensibly would have to be,
08:34for lack of better words, a statesman.
08:36I'm not sure if that is going to be the focus and the priority
08:41of this current president, because all indications appear that
08:46if there was a foreign policy achievement, he seems to have convinced himself
08:51that he's already achieved that, claiming, as we saw even during the campaign season,
08:59that he apparently has ended eight wars.
09:02So I'm not sure if he's going to necessarily be able to expand upon that or improve upon that,
09:09because if, arguably, he's already resolved those wars, then there's no need to resolve them again.
09:15Right. I mean, I think we can sit here and debate over what is facts and what is not,
09:20you know, how many wars is resolved under the Trump presidency.
09:24But I think I'm more interested in what you said, that, you know, obviously the Iran war has become
09:30a domestic issue, especially during the U.S. midterm elections.
09:34It was brought on a lot, you know, the dissatisfaction over the U.S. war in Iran.
09:41So I guess my next question will be whether or not the domestic pressure will change Trump's calculus
09:48in one of its biggest foreign policy challenges, right, dealing with Iran.
09:52So maybe, Ambassador Kagan, you can chime in here.
09:57Trump obviously has presented himself as a dealmaker and a president capable of resolving conflicts,
10:03given this electoral setback and the domestic pressure at home.
10:07Do you think Trump now has greater incentive to pursue diplomatic settlement with Tehran?
10:13Would, you know, Congress chime in or could he even maintain or intensify military pressure?
10:19Where do we stand on Iran here?
10:20The Congress has the power of the purse.
10:25And that's a very, very powerful thing.
10:28However, like a lot of great powers, it's a little tricky to use.
10:32The reality is that the likelihood of Congress cutting off funding for American troops and American service personnel,
10:45particularly in the face of a potential conflict, is extraordinarily unlikely.
10:51And if one goes back to Vietnam, one of the reality is that the way Congress exercises power of the
10:57purse was to cut off financial and military support for the South Vietnamese government.
11:03If there had been more U.S. troops actually deployed, my view is it's more questionable about whether or not
11:11Congress would have wanted to take the chance of being accused of leaving them in the lurch.
11:17So I think that what you're going to see is more questions and some of those questions will be very
11:23awkward to answer.
11:24More investigations that are going to drive those questions.
11:28I think that you may see more assertive efforts to express congressional displeasure.
11:34But the president still has the control over the foreign security policy machinery.
11:42So I say that just to lay the stage.
11:44I think that on Iran, the real issue is how much both sides are willing to negotiate and what's really
11:53on the table.
11:54Iran hasn't really been interested in a serious negotiation because they wanted to see what happened with the midterms.
12:02The administration also hasn't been interested for the same reason.
12:07Each side believes time is on their side.
12:11The administration, rightly or wrongly, believes that the blockade is working and is causing economic pain to Iran.
12:19Iran, I think more correctly, believes that the continued conflict has led to significant damage to President Trump politically.
12:27And so each side is waiting to see is the other feeling the pressure and wanting to negotiate and what
12:34they're willing to put on the table.
12:35In my view, is what you're going to see is an extended stalemate, certainly through January.
12:42And then beyond that, I think it's going to be a question of who's feeling more pain.
12:49Prof, maybe you can chime in here.
12:51So extended till January.
12:54But if we can look a bit further, do you see the Democrats using any practical levers that they have
13:02to influence administration approach to Iran?
13:06Yes, well, I'll turn to a professor.
13:11But I think in the short run, impeaching the secretary of defense, the secretary of war, as he calls himself,
13:20is going to be something that will be on the table.
13:23The impeachment effort earlier this week failed.
13:25But I think you can expect to see that resuscitated once Democrats have been sworn in in January.
13:33I think that you'll also see congressional resolutions just opposing the war and possibly even an effort to stop it.
13:44However, it's worth keeping in mind that to override a presidential veto requires a two-thirds majority.
13:51And I think the odds of getting 67 senators to do something that the president strongly opposes are probably not
14:00very high, certainly in the coming months.
14:04Prof Saeed, your thoughts on this?
14:09I agree fully with the ambassador.
14:12I appreciate the reference to Vietnam because I think the other component to remember regarding Vietnam and the kind of
14:22backlash that one saw in the United States had to do with the legality or the alleged illegality of the
14:30prosecution of the conflict, particularly after 1970.
14:34And how that made such a difference when it came to public opinion, pressuring also Congress to go ahead and
14:42explore various elements of that, whether it was the war extending into Cambodia, for example.
14:50And I'm wondering if perhaps that will be the tack that the majority in Congress after January will take.
14:58There's a lot of pressure on the Democrats now to deliver on oversight, but also accountability, another A word regarding
15:09what has transpired.
15:11But I think that what's going to perhaps happen is if the Democrats go ahead and explore this idea about
15:17how, like the ambassador said,
15:19Secretary of War slash defense, Pete Hegseth circumvented the congressional approval and authorization, as did the president, shattering the checks
15:32and balances and the separation of powers that's constitutional.
15:36And the other is, I suspect, maybe an exploration into the so-called grift and corruption.
15:42Who profited from the Iran war?
15:47Certainly when you saw the fluctuations of the price of oil, where the president on a Friday might have threatened
15:54some kind of escalation of attacks and invasion, and then miraculously on a Monday, those evaporated.
16:02Well, the price of oil then spikes and the price of oil goes down.
16:05And perhaps it seems some people very close to the president, and perhaps, as allegations are, that even his own
16:13family and himself benefited from this kind of inside information.
16:17That might be something that the Democrats can do as a way to delegitimize the president's policies when it comes
16:25to Iran and possibly force a change in tack.
16:28These are things that the Iranians know very well.
16:31And as the ambassador said, the regional forces also are quite aware of what's going on.
16:38Right. And I think, you know, it's still too early to tell.
16:42And we are looking at developments every day, although, you know, Trump has said that the conflict is near ending.
16:51As both of you mentioned, there's still a lot of uncertainties and players involved that we need to keep track
16:56of.
16:57Let's move to China, another, you know, foreign policy tick box for the US, specifically how Beijing might deal with
17:06the Trump administration over the next two years.
17:09Maybe, Ambassador Kagan, you can start here.
17:13Does the election outcome actually change how Beijing calculates its relationship with Washington?
17:19And could China see an opportunity in a, you know, politically weakened Trump administration, maybe?
17:28That's a great question.
17:29And look, I think a couple of things.
17:32First of all, the election results actually increase the PRC's desire to work with President Trump.
17:41The Chinese like working with Donald Trump because while he's unpredictable, which always makes them very nervous,
17:50he has shown a desire to work with them and a desire for stability in the bilateral relationship,
17:58which is very important to China, particularly right now when its economy is facing very serious challenges.
18:04So I think that what this does is it makes the PRC nervous about the future,
18:10because the truth is that the president has done this in the face of opposition from muted, quiet opposition, to
18:20be sure,
18:20from within the Republican Party and much of the Democratic Party as well.
18:24There is a sense in Washington amongst both Republicans and Democrats,
18:29and certainly I would say moderates in both parties, or the more moderate elements of both parties,
18:35that the president has gone too far and has been too accommodating with China.
18:39And the Chinese know that.
18:41So from their standpoint, what they're looking at is the likelihood, certainly possibility,
18:47that when President Trump leaves office, his successor, either Democrat or Republican,
18:53is likely to take a harder line on China.
18:56So for them, they want this to continue.
18:59And you can see that in a variety of ways.
19:01They've a number of their proposals for agreements.
19:04They've wanted to continue through the end of the Trump administration.
19:07That was before the election results.
19:09I think now they'll want that even more.
19:10And they also always prefer the devil they know.
19:15And there is no question of that.
19:17The Chinese follow U.S. domestic politics very closely, not necessarily very well,
19:22but they work very, very hard to follow them.
19:25And I think that they know the president's coming into this summit in Shenzhen, the APEC summit, weaker.
19:32And they're going to be looking to see how does that change his behavior?
19:37How does that change his willingness to negotiate with them?
19:41What can they lock in in the rest of the time he's in office?
19:44Right.
19:45But Prof. Saeed, we have also seen bipartisan support in Washington,
19:50either for tighter controls in China's access to advanced technologies, AI, semiconductors, AI chips.
19:57With Congress now under democratic control, do we expect strategic competition with China to remain a priority?
20:05Or could we see differences in approach?
20:08Well, I think given the fact that the top headline in the U.S. right now is NVIDIA
20:14and the scandal surrounding its CEO, Jensen Huang, and the president's remarks about Mr. Huang
20:24with the allegations that he had an affair with a Chinese spy, I think is rather interesting
20:32because after all, this is putting China perhaps in a very unflatteringly open discussion now
20:42as something that it preferred would not to have happened by being implicated in this.
20:48As the ambassador said, I mean, the Chinese operate with a certain level of discretion,
20:54with a certain level of methodical approach.
20:56And this is perhaps a black swan that wasn't really to be expected.
21:02This is going to, of course, color the conversations and the policies regarding artificial intelligence.
21:09As you know, President Trump has been very deferential to the private sector in policing itself,
21:16having a sort of, quote unquote, honor code in doing so, yet at the same time being very assertive
21:24and saying that he wants the United States to maintain its strategic edge technologically over China
21:31regarding artificial intelligence.
21:33This throws things into a little bit of a maelstrom.
21:36And I'm going to be seeing how the Democrats then respond to this moving forward regarding how to approach China
21:44and what kind of guardrails need to be done.
21:47Because, I mean, there's a bit of a paradox.
21:48On the one hand, this is perhaps an indication that the private sector cannot be left to its own devices
21:53to go ahead and regulate AI.
21:56And yet, at the same time, there is this metanarrative that both on a bipartisan level,
22:01Republicans and Democrats alike, they want to see the United States being at the vanguard
22:07of artificial intelligence and certainly at the expense of China.
22:12China has one advantage, though.
22:14I mean, China has already almost systemically the ability to look at things
22:19on a far broader arc of time.
22:24And so I suspect that while, as the ambassador said,
22:28they are paying very, very close attention to American domestic politics and policy,
22:33they also look at history in arcs of 50 and 100 years.
22:37So they plan for the blips, but they really are focused on the bigger picture
22:43and seeing the direction in which the United States is going.
22:47Right. And I think our first indicator as well would be the APEC Summit coming up,
22:52just to see whether or not this development has any effects on either US-China ties or even AI oversight.
23:00There's certainly a lot looming for even us over here on this side, right?
23:05Unfortunately, we only have time for one more question.
23:07I know we're in the thick of it, but we don't have enough time, unfortunately.
23:11But stepping back from China, from Iran, from individual conflicts that are happening,
23:18are we actually looking at a more constrained American foreign policy
23:22or could a politically weakened Trump administration actually make US foreign policy more unpredictable or predictable?
23:31I think that's the main question, right?
23:33Because we over here are holding on to our seats to this answer particularly.
23:38Anyone can go first.
23:41Ambassador?
23:43Sure.
23:45I think the truth is, I believe the president is going to focus more on foreign policy.
23:52And I totally recognize what the professor said earlier, and it's very wise and very smart.
23:57The reason presidents focus on foreign policy, though, particularly in situations like this where they've lost the majority in Congress
24:05or they didn't have to begin with, is just that it's something that you control much more.
24:10A lot of the stuff he wants to do domestically and all the construction projects, for instance,
24:15those are things that actually require money.
24:18And that's where Congress has by far the greatest amount of control and leverage.
24:23So what I suspect is the president's going to try and do things domestically.
24:27He can still do things by executive order, but then he'll focus on foreign policy.
24:31And I think the truth is he's constrained in a number of ways.
24:38I mean, I think it's going to be much harder to use force after the Iran conflict
24:46because there's going to be a lot more skepticism.
24:49And that's true in his own party.
24:51I mean, it's worth keeping in mind that the Iran conflict turned out to be incredibly bad for Republicans.
24:58And that going into another election in 2028, that Republicans are going to be very aware of that.
25:04And I think you can see the broad outlines of how the president approaches things.
25:09I think he wants deals, he wants things that he sees as benefiting the U.S. economy,
25:16and he wants things that allow him to project strength.
25:20So I think that he will be predictably unpredictable,
25:24and that you'll see him focusing on things that play off his personal relationships
25:32and ability to develop personal relationships.
25:35And he likes working with leaders that he sees as his peers.
25:41So I think you'll see continued engagement with China.
25:44I think you'll probably see some engagement with Putin.
25:47Though, again, that's something where congressional opposition and concern
25:52can have more of an impact in more ways.
25:56And then you'll see him try and go to regions that he sees as important to the United States economically.
26:02And I think that's what's driving his decision to go to the ASEAN meetings in Manila,
26:09because he fully understands how important Southeast Asia is to the United States,
26:14and also that Southeast Asia is an important arena of competition with China.
26:19And his engagements make a difference.
26:22And he had a...
26:22Look, I was very surprised last year.
26:24He had a great time in KL.
26:26I think it was very obvious to Malaysians.
26:28But I think that, you know, the word had been that he didn't like the ASEAN meetings in 2017,
26:33and he actually seemed to enjoy them last year.
26:37So I think that the fact he's going back is significant,
26:40and that probably gives you some sense of the kinds of things he'll do in his remaining two years.
26:47Prof Saeed, in brief now,
26:49I guess what should America's allies and strategic competitors be watching more closely in the next two years?
26:56Let's add that in a little bit.
26:59Well, I agree again with Ambassador Kagan.
27:02And perhaps Southeast Asia is a place where the president can leave a little bit of a legacy
27:08with improving relations with the allies over there,
27:12in part because it makes strategic sense,
27:15and also in part because it seems as though it would be easier for him to be there
27:21than to try to mend fences of the bridges and try to rectify the bridges that he's burned elsewhere.
27:28If you take a look at elections that have happened,
27:30clearly there has been a resurgence of the political left.
27:34He has lost the possibility of an ally in Brazil
27:38with the defeat of Flavio Bolsonaro and the re-election of da Silva.
27:42He's lost an ally in Serbia with the defeat of Vukic.
27:46He's lost an ally in Hungary with the defeat of Viktor Orban.
27:50And so if there is then a possibility of him paying a little bit of attention
27:55before he leaves to maybe mend fences with some of our allies in Western Europe,
28:01that would certainly be a plus.
28:02I doubt it'll happen, but I think Western Europe is looking beyond the next two years
28:06because they feel as though any president, particularly a democratic president, in 2029
28:12will go ahead and rectify those kinds of relationships.
28:16So perhaps in a very strange way, Southeast Asia is the one safe spot
28:21where the president can land and really make an impact
28:24and also, as I said before, leave a legacy for himself and for the United States.
28:29Right, and we'll be here waiting for him, I guess.
28:33Thank you so much, both of you, for sharing your perspective with us.
28:37That's all the time we have on this edition of Awani Global.
28:41Thank you so much to the audience at home for watching.
28:43I'm Pahana Sheh. I'll see you again.
28:58I'm Pahana Sheh.