00:00 Well, Hurricane Lee will continue its move to the west northwest as we go through this
00:04 weekend.
00:05 A very powerful hurricane.
00:07 Category 4 earlier on Friday, then there was a little weakening or loss of wind intensity
00:14 back to a strong Category 4 hurricane on the cusp of Category 5.
00:19 But as we go through this weekend, it is going to remain a very powerful hurricane.
00:23 And while there will be some fluctuation of wind intensity, it is going to be anything
00:30 from a strong Category 4, which begins at 140 mph, to a Category 5, which is 157 or
00:37 greater.
00:38 It's going to be going over an area that has these conditions, exceptionally warm water,
00:44 abundant moisture, and virtually no wind shear, light winds aloft.
00:49 So that's why the intensity isn't going to change much as we move through the weekend.
00:53 Now early next week, in the middle part of the week, you'll note that west northwest
00:58 takes more of a turn to the north.
01:00 This is an important turn for southeastern North Carolina and Florida, because with that
01:06 turn to the north, we can eliminate you from getting any wind or rain from this hurricane.
01:12 Do keep in mind right now that Hurricane Lee is a very compact storm.
01:17 It's not very large.
01:19 So we're going to eliminate you.
01:20 You're in the clear in this area as we head into next week.
01:25 Myrtle Beach, I think Wilmington, all the way down toward Miami.
01:29 There will be rough surf and there's going to be rip currents.
01:33 That's going to be the big story along the east coast if Lee stays out to sea.
01:37 It'll be the rip currents and the rough seas.
01:40 That'll be a problem up and down the eastern seaboard next week.
01:43 The best place is not in the water next week, because conditions are going to be rough.
01:47 All right, the question is, is what happens as we get to the end of the week?
01:52 This scenario that we've drawn for you, we did this three days ago, is still correct.
02:00 What's steering Lee is this high pressure system and this trough.
02:04 We've been focusing on this trough or this dip in the jet stream all week.
02:08 And there's a number of scenarios and it can get very complicated.
02:12 Also, the speed at which that Lee is moving also plays into this.
02:23 But let's say the speed remains generally the same.
02:27 Then what we're focusing on is this trough.
02:30 If it's weak, fast moving, and it comes into the eastern United States, then guess what?
02:34 Lee's going to go out to sea.
02:35 It'll be steered out to sea, probably even east of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland as we
02:41 get toward late next week into the upcoming weekend.
02:43 That is a possibility.
02:45 I am still concerned and we are still concerned that we're not sure that this is 100%.
02:51 We could see the other scenario, that is the trough, let's say, is a little deeper, a little
02:56 stronger and a little farther west.
02:58 Then you're going to be drawing Lee in toward the coastal part of the United States.
03:03 The area that in this scenario would have some risk for rain and wind from Lee, not
03:09 a landfall, but rain and wind from Lee, would be from the Outer Banks of North Carolina
03:14 all the way up toward Nova Scotia and even Newfoundland.
03:19 But that area isn't the same as far as risk right now.
03:22 I want to show you.
03:23 So there's the area, Outer Banks of North Carolina all the way up toward Nova Scotia
03:28 and Newfoundland.
03:30 This southern area from, let's say, Wildwood, Atlantic City, down toward the Outer Banks
03:34 of North Carolina, right now, this is your lowest percent chance of rain and wind from
03:41 Lee.
03:42 That's the area that we would clear first.
03:45 We're not there yet.
03:46 Not just yet.
03:48 Then the other area from, let's say, Wildwood toward all of Long Island right now, it's
03:55 too early to clear you.
03:56 We are viewing the 20 to 40% chance for rain and wind.
04:00 Really and this has been the story since the beginning, the area we've really zoned in
04:04 on for the highest risk for impacts is going to be eastern New England and eastern Canada.
04:11 That's where we could see, we're looking at over a 50% chance in some areas here, although
04:16 40 and 60% all the way up toward mid-Maine and then down east Maine all the way toward
04:22 the Atlantic Canada.
04:23 That's where we have over 60% chance.
04:25 So again, these are the areas that are not ruled out just yet.
04:31 One thing to remember, regardless of how close this comes to the United States, this is such
04:37 a powerful hurricane, it's going to be able to move a lot of water, which means we're
04:42 going to have rough surf and rip currents.
04:44 It's going to be very dangerous to be into the waters here this week.
04:48 At least into Thursday, we're talking North Carolina Beach all the way down toward Florida
04:54 and then later in the week, we'll be talking about eastern New England.
04:57 So again, the water is going to be very dangerous to get into next week along the eastern seaboard.
05:04 Stay with us.
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