00:03Hello, it is Sunday the 11th of October and this is your weekly forecast for New South Wales and
00:07Queensland. There is a lot of rainfall on the way for these two states, anywhere between sort of
00:1125 and 100 mils that will be experienced towards the end half of the week, but it's multiple days
00:17of accumulated high totals. I definitely think there is a chance that flood warnings could be
00:21issued towards the end of the week with the severe weather coming, and as well it should be noted
00:24that there are chances of thunder and lightning associated with this. So it's a week to be paying
00:29attention as there's some high risk weather on the way. We'll go through it day by day and then
00:33we'll have a look at, I suppose, exploring is this rainfall normal towards the end of this video for
00:38these regions. So let's start here on Sunday the 11th. Dry in both states, quite warm, sort of 30
00:46to 35 degrees in the interior of New South Wales, up into the interior of Queensland 35 to 40 degrees
00:50and it's still quite warm along the coasts. This is a front that's approaching here, not reaching either
00:55of the states, until Monday. You can see the front system really nicely in this temperature map here.
01:00It's sort of approaching into the southern half of New South Wales on Monday, delivering lighter
01:05totals, sort of between 2 and maybe 10 mils across New South Wales, relatively dry in Queensland,
01:10and the wind gusts don't particularly come inland, although there is some onshore flow there.
01:15All right, for Tuesday, I say it starts to intensify, but it really gets quite intense,
01:19so we'll just keep up with it. Tuesday, I'm seeing quite strong rainfall totals just north of Sydney,
01:23so 50 to 75 mils possible there. Wind gusts are quite strong in southern New South Wales and
01:29Queensland and southern Queensland. We're going to see some areas between 5 and 15 mils. You can see
01:33in the temperature field, though, that this front moving through has really cooled the temperature
01:36right off. Okay, Wednesday. This is when we start to get a bit more of the trough action that's going
01:44to drive some of this intense weather, but this is not in itself one of the more intense days of
01:48rainfall, but we're still seeing between 10 and 25 mils across northern New South Wales and southern
01:52Queensland. Dry in the interior, but it's starting to warm up a little bit again in Queensland.
01:57Okay, cooling off here as we get this intense little cell, I suppose, from a trough system.
02:04We're seeing 50 to a possible 75 mils in some areas, in some models. I would say this would be
02:11quite intense if you were to see it more in the sort of 15 to 50 mils, which is still
02:15a lot of rainfall.
02:16Cool. Into Friday, similar. It's definitely lessened a little bit. 15 to 25 across most of these
02:22more intense areas, but most areas we'll see between sort of 5 and 15 mils. Again,
02:26really quite cold here. Temperatures, maximum daily temperatures between 15 and 20 mils,
02:30whereas if we look at the start, 15, 20 degrees, I should say, if we look at the start of
02:34the week,
02:34we're in 30 to 35. So a real drastic cooling there for Friday and Saturday. Saturday, again,
02:39another storm with that trough system associated. Sunday, same area. It's really lingering,
02:44but again, it is weakening. And then that's all we've got for this weather forecast.
02:48But you can see the second half of the week is really dominated with very intense single day
02:53storms. It's definitely starts off in New South Wales towards the more start to mid of the week
02:57and then ends up more concentrated in Southern Queensland. But you can still see there's a bit
03:01of rain on the way for the north between one and five mils there towards the end of the week.
03:05Okay. Actually, I lie between one and 15 mils, really.
03:09Okay. Let's look at, is this normal? What I wanted to do is show you, I've only pulled up one
03:15area
03:15because it would take too long to do them all, but I wanted to focus on this Newcastle day where
03:22it's between 25 and 50 mils possible. Okay. So let's start looking at the actual models. So this
03:27is for Newcastle. We're looking here on Tuesday. And first off, I want to show you that the models
03:32are showing anywhere between four and 38 mils. So again, that's a big range there, right? Because
03:37it's going to be stormy. It's about where those cells sit and how much rainfall falls in that area.
03:42So 4 to 38 mils for Newcastle. If we then look at the models themselves, basically what I want to
03:47show you is that across the models, we are really guaranteeing probably about five mils, I would say
03:55is really quite confident across the day on Tuesday. But it's the Canadian model in the morning showing
04:02some quite high hourly total, seven mils, for example, here at 8am. And then we have some of
04:07the European models showing again, some hours of seven mils. So what I'm seeing is that we're
04:12definitely going to have a few mils on that day. There's a possibility of some sub hourly rainfall
04:16to be quite strong in those areas. Now, is this normal? I looked at Newcastle's 2025 weather observations
04:23just to show you that in 2025, it was almost no rain throughout the entire month. One day of 23
04:30.2 mils,
04:31which is roughly what we're saying that models are kind of producing. So a single day, 23.2 mils. So
04:37if you cast your minds back to that day, then that's sort of the rainfall that you can expect.
04:40But is this normal in itself? Well, then we had a look at the climate statistics. And for October,
04:45the mean rainfall in Newcastle is 72.8 mils, whereas last year the total was 28.4. So it was
04:51already a very
04:52dry year last year for October in Newcastle, I should say dry month, where compared to the climate
04:57statistics. But this this daily intense rainfall, you know, it's happened before and it's happening
05:02again. So make of that as you will. OK, that is the rainfall and weather forecast this week for
05:08New South Wales and Queensland. There is intense weather on the way with some very strong possibilities
05:14of thunder and lightning and some very intense, quick rainfall. So please be safe.
05:19Have a great week and we'll see you next time. Bye.
