00:00To the big international story, there's a hung verdict now in Israel.
00:03No alliance has won a majority in the parliament polls there after 85% polls counted.
00:09The Benjamin Netanyahu-led alliance is leading in 53 of the 120 seats,
00:13but is well short of the 61 needed for a majority.
00:16The Gadi Eisenkot-led alliance is leading in 48 seats,
00:20but it's the strong showing by two Arab parties who won 19 seats
00:23and now could even play a role in government formation.
00:26So either you have a stalemate, a possible minority government or the Arab parties in coalition.
00:33What will happen next in Israel?
00:35Is it the end of Benjamin Netanyahu or could he pull off another surprise?
00:39Yeshay Rosenman, senior researcher, joins me from Jerusalem.
00:43Good to have you, Mr. Rosenman, on the show.
00:46What's your big takeaway from this verdict?
00:49What's your biggest takeaway?
00:51Good evening. Good to be here.
00:53So, first of all, I'd like to make a small correction to what you said.
00:57Only one of the two Arab parties could possibly join the government.
01:00That would be the Ram, the Islamist party, the government of Jamaat, the Islami.
01:04The other party is an extreme Palestinian nationalist party that does not recognize the state of Israel.
01:10And therefore, no Eisenkot or Ben Netanyahu, neither would allow them to join the government.
01:15The main verdict is that neither bloc can make a coalition on its own.
01:23The coalition that we had now of Netanyahu, a solid right-wing coalition, will not suffice.
01:29It does not add up to 61, the number that we need, 61 out of the 120 seats in the
01:34Knesset.
01:34And the most likely outcome will be that Netanyahu will remain prime minister with a unity government from across the
01:43aisle,
01:43either with Eisenkot or some of the other parties as well.
01:48In that instance, I think Netanyahu's legacy, that he will preserve at all costs, will be regime change in Iran.
01:56He's talking about that again and again in recent weeks.
02:00We know America has already begun moving aircraft carriers towards the Gulf.
02:06And it's only a question of when the war breaks down with Iran.
02:09Are you saying the most likely thing is a Netanyahu-Eisenkot alliance?
02:13Is that what you're saying?
02:15Or a minority government with outside support?
02:17Because Eisenkot himself is also claiming that he will form the next government.
02:24Netanyahu is a veteran politician and Eisenkot is not.
02:27A minority government is highly unlikely.
02:29What the government itself will look like remains to be seen and what its guidelines will be.
02:34Other than the foreign affairs and defense, the war with Iran, finishing with Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon,
02:41other than that, it's unclear.
02:42One thing, for example, I can say for sure is that if the left-wing parties will be in parliament,
02:47Netanyahu will have to forfeit any chance of judicial reforms that are so dear to him.
02:55Economic-
02:55But what's the most likely, you know, that's for the future of the agenda.
02:59I just want to focus today on what's the most likely government form that you think will be formed.
03:06How does Benjamin Netanyahu reach 61?
03:09Yeah, so I think it simply means going across the aisle to left-wing parties.
03:14I think the Arab parties, ever since the election results, before the results and after the results, time and again,
03:21he speaks out against the Arab parties.
03:22For example, even Raam, the party that ostensibly could be in the government, the head of the party, Mansour Abbas,
03:29refuses to call Hamas a terrorist organization, okay?
03:31Let alone the other Arab party, the joint list, where one of the heads of the party after the election
03:38results dedicated the victory to Gaza and occupied Jerusalem.
03:42Like someone, like an Indian politician would dedicate the victory to Mahmoud Azhar, Masoud Azhar, and Indian-occupied Kashmir, something
03:52like that.
03:53So the Arab parties are not, I don't think they're, from Netanyahu's vantage point, they are not a genuine option.
03:59And the question remains, if he brings in Eisenkot, what does that mean as far as his right-wing partners?
04:05Does that mean that he will forfeit the services of Smotrich or Ben Gavir or possibly the ultra-Orthodox, given
04:11that Eisenkot wants to make reforms to the stipends to the ultra-Orthodox community?
04:15So how does that work?
04:16But you're not ruling, first of all, of course, Indian-occupied Kashmir is what the Pakistanis say, what Masoud Azhar
04:21would say.
04:22I know you're bringing in the context of what the Arab parties would say in the context of Gaza.
04:27But very quickly, you're not ruling out, therefore, the possibility of a government with Netanyahu and Eisenkot in some kind
04:34of an alliance.
04:34Am I correct?
04:35Yes, I think that's the most likely outcome, yes.
04:38Okay.
04:39Mr. Roseman, we'll wait and see whether the great survivor Netanyahu survives this hung verdict or we have a twist
04:44in the tale.
04:45It's a very complicated process of coalition formation in Israel.
04:50Good to have you on the show.
04:51Thank you very much for joining me there from Jerusalem.
